Devils 2019 offseason team discussion (news and notes) VI

[Scooooooooooooot]

Jack Roslovic on the trading block.... Hughes Bratt Roslovic??

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Jack Roslovic on the trading block.... Hughes Bratt Roslovic??

would love to get him

it seems like the Jets are looking for D prospects or draft picks

wonder if they'd have any interest in Walsh

 

[billingtons ghost]

It's an admirable thing to try to do, but it is, at the end of the day, completely subjective. That's not a criticism of Bleedred specifically, but by it's nature it's something very ethereal and not quantifiable.

I actually think it's interesting to try and measure "stoppable goals" in the same way that I also think it's cool that Sisyphus rolled a boulder up a mountain only to watch it fall down the other side every time.

^this exactly.

For me, the problem with the whole exercise is that it is SO subjective.

The problem I have with the stats arguments and the 'we are getting great/bad goalie play' statements based upon SV% is that the stat is so wholly reliant upon the defense played in front of the goalie.

The two are so heavily coupled as to make SV% a very warped perception of reality, and the impact is more heavily felt by middling, mediocre goaltenders.

Sure - if we had Rask or Vas, chances are we are a bubble team or those guys are on the shelf with groin injuries.

You put Robin Lehner on the Devils last year, and he's an ..900 3.50GAA scrub and we still only win 30+ games.

I don't buy the "Lehner, Halak, and Greiss suddenly found their games" bullsh*t.
Lehner: career:.918 2017:.908 2018:.930
Greiss: career:.915 2017:.892 2018:.927
Halak: career:.916 2017:.908 2018:.922
If you put Kincaid on the Isles, he very well could have come close to duplicating Greiss's statline instead of crapping out like he did because they are both mediocre backup goalies.

In a stat like SV% where 10% points means the difference between scrub and Vezina, the fact that defensive scheme clearly correllates to a 35% change (in Greiss's case) just invalidates the stat for me completely.

And similarly - cumulative bad defense leads to soft goals - so the exercise of 'stoppable' goals is a difficult one to lend credence to. Cory had a gem of a game going before his own team scored 4 goals upon him one game.

 

[Bleedred]

^this exactly.

For me, the problem with the whole exercise is that it is SO subjective.

The problem I have with the stats arguments and the 'we are getting great/bad goalie play' statements based upon SV% is that the stat is so wholly reliant upon the defense played in front of the goalie.

The two are so heavily coupled as to make SV% a very warped perception of reality, and the impact is more heavily felt by middling, mediocre goaltenders.

Sure - if we had Rask or Vas, chances are we are a bubble team or those guys are on the shelf with groin injuries.

You put Robin Lehner on the Devils last year, and he's an ..900 3.50GAA scrub and we still only win 30+ games.

I don't buy the "Lehner, Halak, and Greiss suddenly found their games" bullsh*t.
Lehner: career:.918 2017:.908 2018:.930
Greiss: career:.915 2017:.892 2018:.927
Halak: career:.916 2017:.908 2018:.922
If you put Kincaid on the Isles, he very well could have come close to duplicating Greiss's statline instead of crapping out like he did because they are both mediocre backup goalies.

In a stat like SV% where 10% points means the difference between scrub and Vezina, the fact that defensive scheme clearly correllates to a 35% change (in Greiss's case) just invalidates the stat for me completely.

And similarly - cumulative bad defense leads to soft goals - so the exercise of 'stoppable' goals is a difficult one to lend credence to. Cory had a gem of a game going before his own team scored 4 goals upon him one game.

There are too many fallacies to dissect in this post, but the whole “Lehner would have a .900%” was one that caught my eye the most.

We had a .918% goalie on this team last year, which was significantly above the league average. It was only 25 games, but the whole “Any goalie on this team” or “It’s impossible to have a league average save percentage behind this team” argument dies a really quick but painful death and gets charred in hell after we saw a goalie here play considerably above the league average.

Could it be that Keith Kinkaid is just one of the worst goalies in the league and Schneider is either in decline and his best days are behind him or he was just hampered by injuries? I’m gonna go with a very sound yes.

 

[Triumph]

^this exactly.

For me, the problem with the whole exercise is that it is SO subjective.

The problem I have with the stats arguments and the 'we are getting great/bad goalie play' statements based upon SV% is that the stat is so wholly reliant upon the defense played in front of the goalie.

The two are so heavily coupled as to make SV% a very warped perception of reality, and the impact is more heavily felt by middling, mediocre goaltenders.

Sure - if we had Rask or Vas, chances are we are a bubble team or those guys are on the shelf with groin injuries.

You put Robin Lehner on the Devils last year, and he's an ..900 3.50GAA scrub and we still only win 30+ games.

I don't buy the "Lehner, Halak, and Greiss suddenly found their games" bullsh*t.
Lehner: career:.918 2017:.908 2018:.930
Greiss: career:.915 2017:.892 2018:.927
Halak: career:.916 2017:.908 2018:.922
If you put Kincaid on the Isles, he very well could have come close to duplicating Greiss's statline instead of crapping out like he did because they are both mediocre backup goalies.

In a stat like SV% where 10% points means the difference between scrub and Vezina, the fact that defensive scheme clearly correllates to a 35% change (in Greiss's case) just invalidates the stat for me completely.

And similarly - cumulative bad defense leads to soft goals - so the exercise of 'stoppable' goals is a difficult one to lend credence to. Cory had a gem of a game going before his own team scored 4 goals upon him one game.

So the problem you have with Bleed's review is that it's subjective, meanwhile you just handwave with zero evidence that save percentages aren't anywhere close to interchangeable? Again, I take Bleed's data with a grain of salt because of the subjectivity and because he also knows the save percentages so there could very well be some unconscious (or conscious) fudging going on, but he has the Islanders near the top of the league in fewest stoppable goals allowed. Meanwhile Greiss and Lehner had career years in save percentage. These two things make sense with one another. What doesn't make sense, if you take Bleed's data at anywhere close to face value, is that the Islanders' defense was amazing. The Islanders allowed a lot of unstoppable goals according to Bleed but allowed few goals overall. This squares with the Islanders being an average team defensively who got a hot run of goaltending.

I await the excuses and handwaving next year. Lehner is .900 here but Schneider and Blackwood are around .917 post All-Star break and Kinkaid is .856 (in 7 games). Sure. It's the defense though.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

There are too many fallacies to dissect in this post, but the whole “Lehner would have a .900%” was one that caught my eye the most.

We had a .918% goalie on this team last year, which was significantly above the league average. It was only 25 games, but the whole “Any goalie on this team” or “It’s impossible to have a league average save percentage behind this team” argument dies a really quick but painful death and gets charred in hell after we saw a goalie here play considerably above the league average.

Could it be that Keith Kinkaid is just one of the worst goalies in the league and Schneider is either in decline and his best days are behind him or he was just hampered by injuries? I’m gonna go with a very sound yes.

Schneider is back dude

 

[RangerDoggo]

Pretty good video from The Hockey Guy on the history of the Rockies moving to NJ:

I know this is an old post, but I had to quote it because my dad has a story he likes to tell about the Devils post-Colorado move. Chico Resch played for the franchise when they made the move. The first time he walked into the empty Brendan Byrne Arena to look over the facility, he looked at all the empty seats and said, "Looks like a Rockies game.|

 

[Bleedred]

Schneider is back dude

I know you're half kidding. He could be, but I tend to think his best days are long over. There's always a chance he has one last good season in him or even several in a very reduced role, but not as a 60 game starter, unless it's a one-off year.

I also think Kinkaid has played over 50% of the games he'll play in his NHL career. Possibly even over 66%. He's one of those Chad Johnson/Al Montoya/LaBarbera's that doesn't last in the NHL very long. Johnson is probably done in the NHL now, unless it's in a third string call up role. I think his days of a permanent NHL roster spot are over. And Kinkaid is just 3 years younger and that will likely be his fate in just 3 more years or fewer.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Schneider is back dude

I'm not 100% convinced yet.

That may be true for 95% of his game, but I still think there's something strange going on in his lack of lateral ability. I noticed this again during the IIHF tournament, he was extremely slow going post to post. There was a game in which he almost got beaten on a wraparound that was honestly slow in developing, but it took him forever to push side-to-side. I still think there's some lingering groin issue or something.

 

[billingtons ghost]

These two things make sense with one another. What doesn't make sense, if you take Bleed's data at anywhere close to face value, is that the Islanders' defense was amazing. The Islanders allowed a lot of unstoppable goals according to Bleed but allowed few goals overall. This squares with the Islanders being an average team defensively who got a hot run of goaltending.

You accuse ME of handwaving when that is exactly what you are doing. All you do above is prove my point about SV%.

The incontrovertible evidence, if you read my post - is completely overwhelming. You have three complete data sets that are directly comparable - three goaltenders, all of whom have shown promise at times, but all of whom are not generational by any means, and all three of them go from playing on what EVERYONE (not me being subjective) can all agree were horrible defensive teams with serious deficiencies in team defense and systems which proved to be year-over-year to be detrimental to their personal stats.

All three go to what prove to be very good defensive teams - again not my SUBJECTIVE assessment, but the opinion of experts throughout the league. Barry Trotz has a well deserved reputation of being a terrific defensive coach who holds his team accountable. The Boston Bruins have prided themselves on defense.

You tell me, Mr Ockham's Razor - which theory seems more plausible:
Lehner, Greiss and Halak suddenly find themselves and improbably improve their own personal play and SV% by 12-35 percentage points in a single year.

OR
Islanders team defense improved so significantly under Trotz that two goaltenders went from .895 and .908 respectively to the toast of the league and Vezina candidate at .927 and .930 respectively????
...and Halak escapes to a better team and profits?

If Bleed's 'data' and SV% are the only legs you have to stand on... good luck with that.

 

[JimEIV]

I still think the goal itself whether it was stoppable or not is only one component...

In any sport your ability to read the play is critical to success but if everyone around you isn't where they are supposed to be and/or not doing what they are supposed to do reading the play becomes difficult to impossible.... There have been so many occasions this season the goal looked "stoppable" but if you consider how that scoring opportunity came to fruition and the 2 missed assignments that lead to the opposition being in the scoring position, I just can't accept the final act in a 3 part shit show is the sole reason for the goal.

 

[billingtons ghost]

There are too many fallacies to dissect in this post, but the whole “Lehner would have a .900%” was one that caught my eye the most.

I read this as: "I have nothing."

We had a .918% goalie on this team last year, which was significantly above the league average. It was only 25 games,

Exactly. Ultra-small sampleset buoyed by a unique situation (help save the rookie goalie boost -see early Binnington), and the fact he got blitzed for 40+ shots in some early games. Also note he got hurt, just like our other goalies did, by turning himself inside out.

Could it be that Keith Kinkaid is just one of the worst goalies in the league and Schneider is either in decline and his best days are behind him or he was just hampered by injuries? I’m gonna go with a very sound yes.

It very well could be- SV% could be because he sucks. It also could equally be that the team in front of him sucked and helped him in his suckage just like Lehner and Greiss and Halak. Who knows - maybe you're right and if he gets a legit shot in Colombus or wherever he sticks at .890 - or he more likely goes back to being a middling, sub-average .910 goaltender or something.

 

[Bleedred]

So the problem you have with Bleed's review is that it's subjective, meanwhile you just handwave with zero evidence that save percentages aren't anywhere close to interchangeable? Again, I take Bleed's data with a grain of salt because of the subjectivity and because he also knows the save percentages so there could very well be some unconscious (or conscious) fudging going on, but he has the Islanders near the top of the league in fewest stoppable goals allowed. Meanwhile Greiss and Lehner had career years in save percentage. These two things make sense with one another. What doesn't make sense, if you take Bleed's data at anywhere close to face value, is that the Islanders' defense was amazing. The Islanders allowed a lot of unstoppable goals according to Bleed but allowed few goals overall. This squares with the Islanders being an average team defensively who got a hot run of goaltending.

I await the excuses and handwaving next year. Lehner is .900 here but Schneider and Blackwood are around .917 post All-Star break and Kinkaid is .856 (in 7 games). Sure. It's the defense though.

I have been accused of confirmation bias, but there have been several deviations with goalies that didn't rank high in save percentage this year, who ranked pretty well on my count and vice versa.

Marc-Andre Fleury had a .913% this year, just 3 points above the league average of .910%. Yet I only counted 36 goals stoppable against him on 152 goals allowed. This was a lower percentage than Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen and almost any goalie in the league, outside of Robin Lehner and John Gibson. At least only when counting guys that played a significant amount. Lehner had the lowest. Greiss was better than my average, but not as good as Lehner on my count.

John Gibson was a .917%, which was good but not great, yet I would say out of all the starters or guys who played a significant amount, he had the lowest percentage of goals I counted stoppable out of anyone not named Lehner.

Carey Price had a lower percentage of goals I counted stoppable than Vasilevskiy, but his save percentage was a bit lower at .918%. Vasilevskiy was really good, but there were several guys that fared better on my count.

Back in December or even January, Phillipp Grubauer had an .891% at one point, but he had a very low percentage of goals I counted stoppable. I made posts back in December and January on the main board to watch for him. My prediction was that his save percentage would come up by a lot if he kept playing the way he was playing on my eye test and it did.

Now on the other end of things, Mikko Koskinen had one of the higher percentages of goals I counted stoppable this year. Only Mike Smith had a higher percentage. Mikko Koskinen's .906% was below average, but it wasn't horrific. There was one point last year in the fall or early winter that I had counted about 50% of the goals on Koskinen as stoppable, yet his save percentage was like .930%. So I made the bold prediction that if his play like this continued, he would see a drastic plummet in save percentage. David Rittich from Calgary was another one that had a really high count/percentage of goals I counted stoppable, yet he was in the .920%'s for half the year. In the second half, both these guys did plummet, but I also didn't notice a lot more goals on them being stoppable than I did when they were playing in the .920's%. I counted 36.3% of the goals on Koskinen stoppable this year. 53 out of 146. That's a higher percentage than almost anyone that was in the .890%'s. That was worse than Cam Ward, Keith Kinkaid, Jonathan Quick, Martin Jones. ALL guys that had lower save percentages. The only one worse that played a significant amount? Mike Smith. He had 42 goals I counted stoppable on 109 goals allowed. 38.5%!

One other interesting thing. Carter Hutton and his slightly below league average .908% save percentage didn't fare poorly on my test. I had him down for 38 goals stoppable on 142 allowed. That's 26.76%. That's lower than the percentage of goals I counted stoppable in the league. And yet his goalie partner Linus Ullmark had a .905% save percentage (not much lower than Hutton) and I counted 35 goals stoppable on him on 109 allowed for a percentage of 32.11%. I was calling him Koskinen East for most of the season.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I'm not 100% convinced yet.

That may be true for 95% of his game, but I still think there's something strange going on in his lack of lateral ability. I noticed this again during the IIHF tournament, he was extremely slow going post to post. There was a game in which he almost got beaten on a wraparound that was honestly slow in developing, but it took him forever to push side-to-side. I still think there's some lingering groin issue or something.

He probably shouldn't have played in that tournament but kudos for him for playing and representing USA hockey instead of getting a longer vacation. Hopefully he can take some time off than get a good off season workout regimen before training camp starts. His tenure here has been very frustrating because of how bad we were when he played well his first few seasons. Than the dreadful year long winless drought really soured the fan base on him. I can only imagine the mental hell he was going through during the skid. Let's hope him and Blackwood can be a good tandem next year.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Jack Roslovic on the trading block.... Hughes Bratt Roslovic??

Why would we pin a 24pt forward into our top-6.... over Zacha?

Potential or not hes not getting a top-6 spot, seems like a waste of a move when we have our own forward prospects to worry about. Sheros days of spending real assets to acquire projects is over

 

[Emperoreddy]

Why would we pin a 24pt forward into our top-6.... over Zacha?

Potential or not hes not getting a top-6 spot, seems like a waste of a move when we have our own forward prospects to worry about. Sheros days of spending real assets to acquire projects is over

Says who? You?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Why would we pin a 24pt forward into our top-6.... over Zacha?

Potential or not hes not getting a top-6 spot, seems like a waste of a move when we have our own forward prospects to worry about. Sheros days of spending real assets to acquire projects is over

you realize he played less than 10 minutes per game?

I wonder what you were saying at the time when Palmieri was acquired?

 

[Triumph]

You accuse ME of handwaving when that is exactly what you are doing. All you do above is prove my point about SV%.

The incontrovertible evidence, if you read my post - is completely overwhelming. You have three complete data sets that are directly comparable - three goaltenders, all of whom have shown promise at times, but all of whom are not generational by any means, and all three of them go from playing on what EVERYONE (not me being subjective) can all agree were horrible defensive teams with serious deficiencies in team defense and systems which proved to be year-over-year to be detrimental to their personal stats.

Luck/uncertainty overwhelms all of this You have '3 complete data sets' in a league that has 120 every season, but let's ignore those and focus on these three. Also it's very weird how you agree with SV% as a way to measure goalies' ability when it makes your point, but when something like 'Cory Schneider was a great goaltender for the Devils in 2013-2016' comes up, it's all 'well that's just a number and there's a lot of things that go into it and his rebound control is poor'

All three go to what prove to be very good defensive teams - again not my SUBJECTIVE assessment, but the opinion of experts throughout the league. Barry Trotz has a well deserved reputation of being a terrific defensive coach who holds his team accountable. The Boston Bruins have prided themselves on defense.

Boston overcounts shots so that needs to be taken out of Halak's save percentage. I don't care what experts around the league think - they watch a team outside their beat 5 times a year. The Islanders were in the middle of the pack at shot prevention. They may have prevented high-danger shots, but Micah Blake McCur.dy's data suggests that they didn't, and Natural Stat Trick's mostly agrees.

As for Trotz:

Braden Holtby's SV% in years when he is coached by Barry Trotz: .920
Braden Holtby's SV% in years when he is not coached by Barry Trotz: .916

I'm sure that 4 goals every 1000 shots is coaching, and not personnel, chance, rules changes, the addition of 3v3, Holtby aging, etc.

You tell me, Mr Ockham's Razor - which theory seems more plausible:
Lehner, Greiss and Halak suddenly find themselves and improbably improve their own personal play and SV% by 12-35 percentage points in a single year.

OR
Islanders team defense improved so significantly under Trotz that two goaltenders went from .895 and .908 respectively to the toast of the league and Vezina candidate at .927 and .930 respectively????
...and Halak escapes to a better team and profits?

If Bleed's 'data' and SV% are the only legs you have to stand on... good luck with that.

Again, you're just going to make excuses when Greiss doesn't repeat this next year. The Islanders didn't sign some rinky-dink defenseman or they got some guy hurt. Coaches do not make this kind of difference - if they did, you would see it all over the league when coaching changes happen, and some coaches would be known as SV% gods. We do not.

Lehner might be a star, though I would still bet very heavily against him repeating last season's SV%. Greiss is not. He is very unlikely to repeat last season also.

 

[Emperoreddy]

This is a ridiculous argument going on.

Bleed’s data is not scientific. It’s based entirely on a subjective idea with no concrete definition, and it’s impossible to tell whether bias entered the data intentionally or unintentionally.

Reverse side this idea that goalie stats are useless is equally silly and unfounded.

Goaltending was a big reason our season sank. We were near bottom of the league in goaltending and would have if not for Blackwood inflating the stats.

When Kinkaid was good we won a bunch of a games. When Blackwood was at his best we won games. Hell when Cory came back healthy we won games despite icing an AHL roster.

We lost a ton of games while Cory and Keith were having maybe their worst stretches of their careers.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

you realize he played less than 10 minutes per game?

I wonder what you were saying at the time when Palmieri was acquired?

When Palmieri was acquired our best prospect behind Zacha was John f***ing Quenneville and our best forward under-25 was Reid f***ing Boucher

Ever heard of context?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

When Palmieri was acquired our best prospect behind Zacha was John ****ing Quenneville and our best forward under-25 was Reid ****ing Boucher

Ever heard of context?

What are you even talking about? What does Reid freaking Boucher have to do with whether or not we should go after Jack Roslovic or not?

25 points while playing like 9 minutes per night is actually pretty good for a 22 year old. "Ever heard of context?"

 

[JimEIV]

Again, you're just going to make excuses when Greiss doesn't repeat this next year.

We see large swings in SV% from individual goalies from year to year regularly.

Not to mention that Greiss
will be 34 years old next season.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

What are you even talking about? What does Reid freaking Boucher have to do with whether or not we should go after Jack Roslovic or not?

25 points while playing like 9 minutes per night is actually pretty good for a 22 year old. "Ever heard of context?"

Did you already forget your own argument? “I wonder what you were saying at the time we acquired Palmieri”.

Ill let you remember that and figure out what Reid Boucher has to do with what you quoted me with.

 

[devilsblood]

It's weird how what people on this board want and what Hall supposedly wants tend to be the same thing.

I don't want Eberle. And it need not be Eberle specifically, but a player of his ability.

Hall is on record multiple times saying we need talent, he said multiple times that being on a competitive team is a factor in where he signs. Do we think Roslovic is the type of player he is talking about?

It's not like I'm making things up here. He is on record.

 

[devilsblood]

I don’t think that is clear at all. We have no idea what his threshold is if it even exists.

Hughes and the kids growing could be enough, or it could be three+ blockbuster moves. We don’t know.

See my response to Triumph above.

If Hughes and the kids growing were enough then would not be still saying the things he is saying.