Development of Russians in CHL v KHL

[Canadiens1958]

Exactly

What personal interests Bragin exactly have in keeping players in Russia? He has personal interests in getting the best players available for the WJC and his best interests are thus to have players where they are developing and progressing better.

Exactly. USA and Canada plus other nations have WJC teams as well but the respective teams or their head coaches do not care about the specific team or league where their players develop, only that they are better players from their experience.

Russia like certain other European teams had a high WJC presence of players from the CHL/NA - 5 out of 8 defencemen, plus 4 forwards.

http://www.worldjunior2016.com/en/teams/#RUS

Now if the point Bragin is making is that the difference between winning gold or medaling or competing, the 2011 Russian WJC, only Russian WJC team to win since 2003, had an edge with only one NA player on the roster:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_World_Junior_Ice_Hockey_Championships_rosters

But that is a systemic problem, not being able to build on success. Why be surprised that players look elsewhere beyond Russian borders?

Edit found article added: http://thehockeywriters.com/mikhail-sergachev-the-next-ones-nhl-2016-draft-prospect-profile/

Comments about Sergachev's 2016 NHL Entry Draft ranking the are very revealing.

 

[Alessandro Seren Rosso]

Edit found article added: http://thehockeywriters.com/mikhail-sergachev-the-next-ones-nhl-2016-draft-prospect-profile/

Comments about Sergachev's 2016 NHL Entry Draft ranking the are very revealing.

On the other hand, you'll agree that the actual number of draft pick has a minor impact on the player, what team drafts you is much more important, I think. In what round was Datsyuk drafted? How many Red Wings pick bust and how many Oilers?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Interesting

On the other hand, you'll agree that the actual number of draft pick has a minor impact on the player, what team drafts you is much more important, I think. In what round was Datsyuk drafted? How many Red Wings pick bust and how many Oilers?

Interesting view given your admission in the article that Sergachev would not have been drafted as high had he remained outside the CHL.

Minor impact would also extend to the value of the first professional or NHL contract that a player signs. From all reports Sergachev and Datsyuk are fine, honourable individuals who deserve to be paid at the maximum level for their abilities.Yet Datsyuk's ability to fully monatize his talents was delayed approximately three seasons:

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/pavel-datsyuk

Sergachev and others notably Scherbak are significantly ahead:

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/MTL?year=2017

Not really a Oilers vs Red Wings development thread but I'll play.

Let's double down - raise the stakes and ask the real question. Given that there will always be busts which developmental path offers the best safety net for the player while providing the the greatest opportunity?

The KHL(MHL) vs the overall European junior system vs the CHL vs the NCAA? That the individual NHL teams are not equally capable of filtering the puffery, the smoke and mirrors presented by the developmental systems worldwide is of little concern. After all the NHL team executives do go to the NHL Entry draft wearing their big boy pants and suits.

Overlooked in the Datsyuk analogy is that the Canadiens drafted Andrei Markov a few spots ahead of Datsyuk while three other Soviet Union born prospects were drafted ahead of Datsyuk, never to play an NHL game.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/NHL_1998_entry.html

Whatever happened to the three that never played an NHL game?

 

[Alessandro Seren Rosso]

Interesting view given your admission in the article that Sergachev would not have been drafted as high had he remained outside the CHL.

Sorry, but I don't follow you here. It's pretty obvious that a player from the CHL will be drafted higher than the same player who is playing in Europe, no matter the league. Do you really think Kuznetsov falls to 26 if he was playing in America? Tarasenko?

Minor impact would also extend to the value of the first professional or NHL contract that a player signs.

They do earn enough money at home...

Not really a Oilers vs Red Wings development thread but I'll play.

It was just a try to say two teams. The Red Wings have a reputation of a team who drafts great even if they rarely pick high. The Oilers, quite the opposite. McDavid doesn't count as even a monkey would have picked him first overall and he spent in the NHL just half a year anyway.

Given that there will always be busts which developmental path offers the best safety net for the player while providing the the greatest opportunity?

My opinion, and of course I don't pretend that I am talking the Holy Graal of hockey, differently from others (not you, Canadiens 1958, as I do appreciate your way of talking and your will to accept replies and different points of view), is that for European players the best approach SEEMS to be the "let's become a good player, then I'll go to the NHL" path. All the top players in the game, with probably the exception of Kucherov, who is really a half exception, underwent that path. I think that it must mean something, after all.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Interesting Part II

Sorry, but I don't follow you here. It's pretty obvious that a player from the CHL will be drafted higher than the same player who is playing in Europe, no matter the league. Do you really think Kuznetsov falls to 26 if he was playing in America? Tarasenko?



They do earn enough money at home...



It was just a try to say two teams. The Red Wings have a reputation of a team who drafts great even if they rarely pick high. The Oilers, quite the opposite. McDavid doesn't count as even a monkey would have picked him first overall and he spent in the NHL just half a year anyway.



My opinion, and of course I don't pretend that I am talking the Holy Graal of hockey, differently from others (not you, Canadiens 1958, as I do appreciate your way of talking and your will to accept replies and different points of view), is that for European players the best approach SEEMS to be the "let's become a good player, then I'll go to the NHL" path. All the top players in the game, with probably the exception of Kucherov, who is really a half exception, underwent that path. I think that it must mean something, after all.

Thank you for the kind words.

Interesting. We seem to be approaching the same conclusion from opposite directions or perhaps one is going clockwise the other counter-clockwise.

We can pick examples all day. So let's just go to the core - the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.

Top five picks to start.

Auston Matthews and Patrick Leine(no need for Laine's stats since not applicable to my point)

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170320

Doubtful that the draft order changes if both or either played in the CHL. Definitely they could not go higher.Matthews in the CHL would have played in the WHL due to geographical factors. Regardless born three days earlier he is drafted say 3-15th last year. Similar to Ovechkin in his draft year and Anthony Mantha a couple of drafts ago. But now we are comparing the fortunes of birthdays not development.

Still Auston Matthews made an interesting choice. Playing with/against adults in Switzerland, better payday, playing for a Head Coach Marc Crawford - NHL knowledgable, coached a team to a Stanley Cup, as opposed to riding the buses in the WHL playing for a wannabe coach in a town less appealing than Zurich.

Is there ever enough money, enough fun, enough happiness? But if a player or any citizen loses a career due to injury or circumstance, no one will will step-up and cover the medical bills, earnings shortfalls, etc.

Picks #2 to 5 are interesting. How does Pierre-Luc Dubois CHL/Cape Breton fit between the three Finnish prospects - Juolevi having opted for the CHL route? Issue comes down to coaching Marc-Andre Dumont vs coaching in Finland - multi-level approach(mix of junior, senior national teams and SM Liga) vs Dale Hunter and the advantages of playing with/against adults. Dubois drafted at #3 changed the way the dominoes fell thru the top 10-12 picks. Can Columbus change what has to be changed? Is John Tortellela the appropriate NHL coach for any of the picks#3 to 5?
Detroit took Evgeny Svechnikov #19 overall from Cape Breton in 2015. Same junior coach. Interesting looking down the road.

Tarasenko. Interesting choice. Let's ask the better question. How and where does he develop if his father is not his junior coach?

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0050322012.html

We can ask the same question about CHL products - Nathan Beaulieu and his father Jacques. In the CHL trace back to Nail Yakupov and Alex Galchenyuk.

Will look at the others latter. Enough on the plate for now.

Issue seems to be the most appropriate path for each individual.

 

[93LEAFS]

Sorry, but I don't follow you here. It's pretty obvious that a player from the CHL will be drafted higher than the same player who is playing in Europe, no matter the league. Do you really think Kuznetsov falls to 26 if he was playing in America? Tarasenko?

That has to do with contracts and buyout complications way more than location. Another factor is the KHL teams are not very opening to NHL scouts, making it a much harder region to scout than the Nordic countries. Coaches are not open with scouts, and in some cases players are represented by multiple agents with it unclear what buy outs are. Russia in regards to prospects operates in a different world than the other European leagues. Maybe if the Russia doesn't want to lose top talent at 17 to the CHL they should be more encouraging and opening to NHL scouts, its not perfect, but it won't slowly erode your development leagues. We are already seeing an exodus of kids as young as 13 to North American prep leagues.

Guys like Kuznetsov and Tarasenko wouldn't have slipped if NHL teams knew they could easily get them over. It really has nothing to do with what league they play in, and more to do with contracts. Barkov going over Drouin and Jones in 2013 should show there is really know bias towards leagues as long as the teams know they can control the players development. Just look at the 2001 draft, 3 russian based players in the top 5. And the teams pulled beyond shady actions to try to keep two them overseas wasting almost an entire developmental year.

 

[Canadiens1958]

CHL Puffery

That has to do with contracts and buyout complications way more than location. Another factor is the KHL teams are not very opening to NHL scouts, making it a much harder region to scout than the Nordic countries. Coaches are not open with scouts, and in some cases players are represented by multiple agents with it unclear what buy outs are. Russia in regards to prospects operates in a different world than the other European leagues. Maybe if the Russia doesn't want to lose top talent at 17 to the CHL they should be more encouraging and opening to NHL scouts, its not perfect, but it won't slowly erode your development leagues. We are already seeing an exodus of kids as young as 13 to North American prep leagues.

Guys like Kuznetsov and Tarasenko wouldn't have slipped if NHL teams knew they could easily get them over. It really has nothing to do with what league they play in, and more to do with contracts. Barkov going over Drouin and Jones in 2013 should show there is really know bias towards leagues as long as the teams know they can control the players development. Just look at the 2001 draft, 3 russian based players in the top 5. And the teams pulled beyond shady actions to try to keep two them overseas wasting almost an entire developmental year.

Still have to wear big boy pants and suits regardless of where you are scouting or drafting from. Russians(KHL/MHL) playing the game close to the vest or the CHL puffery.

The counter-weight is that the Russian/European coaches and officials knowing that their chances of landing an NHL or even AHL job is slim and none, minor possibility of a European scouting gig, so everyone goes in with the understanding that rice bowls are being protected.

CHL puffery. Are they feeding the NHL team info about the player or auditioning for openings in the organization at the AHL or NHL asst. coach level?

NCAA basically life time hires unless the coaches really mess-up. Coaches also recruit to the needs of the program and the ability of the coaching staff to optimize the talent. Very different from rolling the dice at one of the three CHL drafts.

 

[93LEAFS]

Still have to wear big boy pants and suits regardless of where you are scouting or drafting from. Russians(KHL/MHL) playing the game close to the vest or the CHL puffery.

The counter-weight is that the Russian/European coaches and officials knowing that their chances of landing an NHL or even AHL job is slim and none, minor possibility of a European scouting gig, so everyone goes in with the understanding that rice bowls are being protected.

CHL puffery. Are they feeding the NHL team info about the player or auditioning for openings in the organization at the AHL or NHL asst. coach level?

NCAA basically life time hires unless the coaches really mess-up. Coaches also recruit to the nedds of the program and the ability of the coaching staff to optimize the talent. Very different from rolling the dice at one of the three CHL drafts.

Almost all regions are open to NHL scouting because they believe that getting kids to the NHL is either the best recruiting tool or that its inevitable. Russia on the other hand wants to create a competing league. Add that to the lack of a transfer agreement and that is why Russian kids fall at the draft. Its hard to get good info and you end up reliant on IIHF events.

CHL teams are open with the scouts because they have no intention of keeping these kids past 20. NCAA guys are too, for multiple reasons. They know that if they repeatedly lie, when they have a good kid to throw a bone to a scout the scout won't listen. For CHL teams and NCAA teams it is in those teams best interests to get kids to the NHL. Why do you think so many kids want to play for the Knights or North Dakota?

Edit: Flat out, most kids want to be where they will be scouted and have the best opportunity. If the kids (and more importantly the agents) don't believe that these coaches are giving them that opportunity to get to the NHL, the exodus will continue. Flat out, the best solution may be to cut a deal with the NHL similar to the CHL deal and open the doors to scouts. If you are drafted out of Russia you can only leave at age 20 unless you are going straight to the NHL. It won't stop all the kids leaving at 13 to 16, but it will probably reduce it.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Buffalo Herd

Almost all regions are open to NHL scouting because they believe that getting kids to the NHL is either the best recruiting tool or that its inevitable. Russia on the other hand wants to create a competing league. Add that to the lack of a transfer agreement and that is why Russian kids fall at the draft. Its hard to get good info and you end up reliant on IIHF events.

CHL teams are open with the scouts because they have no intention of keeping these kids past 20. NCAA guys are too, for multiple reasons. They know that if they repeatedly lie, when they have a good kid to throw a bone to a scout the scout won't listen. For CHL teams and NCAA teams it is in those teams best interests to get kids to the NHL. Why do you think so many kids want to play for the Knights or North Dakota?

Edit: Flat out, most kids want to be where they will be scouted and have the best opportunity. If the kids (and more importantly the agents) don't believe that these coaches are giving them that opportunity to get to the NHL, the exodus will continue. Flat out, the best solution may be to cut a deal with the NHL similar to the CHL deal and open the doors to scouts. If you are drafted out of Russia you can only leave at age 20 unless you are going straight to the NHL. It won't stop all the kids leaving at 13 to 16, but it will probably reduce it.

Basic Buffalo Herd analogy. The herd moves forward at the speed of the slowest/weakest buffalo not the fastest/strongest. So the Flints, the Acadie-Bathursts etc of the CHL and other similar franchises drag down the the London Knights etc. The CHL is "an always something" type of operation. More hope growing the Midget AAA programs, the JR A where more and more you see the real player development.

Same applies to the KHL/MHL or elsewhere. The slowest/weakest operations are a drag on development.Maybe the KHL/MHL will figure out the structure and ratios to support a viable junior program. If they rely on the CHL as a model this result is doubtful.

Provenance of William Bitten or Vili Saarijarvi does not matter - they had the misfortune of drawing the Flint straw. So they were picked in the 3rd round instead of higher.

The desire to establish the KHL is noble and interesting. Still going from 0 to 28 teams in less than a generation with a support feeder system approaching a 10:1 ratio like the NHL that has been around for almost 100 years is overreaching. So there will be slippage and departures.

Note 10:1 ratio talkes into account the 30 NHL teams supported by the combined number of teams from the AHL/ECHL plus CHL plus NCAA/CIS plus various non - Russian European leagues,

 

[AstoriaIceNinja]

So I am trying to attach a spreadsheet that I've been working on. It doesn't really tell us anything we didn't already know, but it's an effort to summarize the differences in historical draft position between Russian/KHL-MHL players (I have a couple Latvians and Belarusians included because they played MHL).

It's obviously not an exhaustive list and remains a work in progress, but I thought it would be good to share especially if anyone has any particularly noteworthy players in mind that I missed thus far and should add to the list.

I started the spreadsheet in an effort to quantify where the NHL deems an appropriate range to draft MHL players, but as the system is relatively new there are only a few draft years worth of players that could have played in the MHL. I believe the likes of Tarasenko/Kuznetsov were right before it was implemented, since Kucherov is one of the oldest players to have played there. All stats are courtesy of EliteProspects if anyone feels like checking them.

The "Findings" tab is the most important bit. In case the attachment process didn't work anyone doesn't feel compelled or able to look at the spreadsheet (because some people may be reading on mobile, etc.), the average draft position of a forward who played in the MHL his first year is approximately 101st overall, or a 4th round draft choice.

Seven forwards in the sample set played in the KHL their first year eligible for the draft: E. Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Panarin, Kaprizov, Nichushkin, Slepyshev, and Golyshev. Their average draft position is about 60th overall, although it should be noted the discrepancy between the high 1st rounders (Nich, Tarasenko, and Kuzy), several players drafted as overagers (Slepyshev, Golyshev) and one player undrafted altogether (Panarin).

As far as the CHL is concerned, the OHL unsurprisingly leads the way with an average draft position of 55th, with the QMJHL coming in just behind at 60th. So on average the Q players are drafted as highly as KHL'ers. The WHL lags behind at 113th on average for forwards.

The sample size for defensemen is smaller, and goalies smaller still (and currently incomplete), so I'm not inclined to comment on them at this particular time even though the information is on the spreadsheet if anyone can look at it.

I want to eventually be able to run an analysis on the average MHL PPG and its connection to draft position, but I haven't put those formulas together as of yet. Just from eyeballing it, however, it would appear that having an MHL scoring pace of 0.75 PPG or higher is generally what is worthy of higher round pick consideration, which brings up the question of why some players who exceeded these numbers (Evgeni Mityakin and Ivan Kosorenkov come to mind) were not picked up even in the lower rounds.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Problems

^^^ Problems opening - coding problem message appears. Tried from two distinct computers.

 

[AstoriaIceNinja]

^^^ Problems opening - coding problem message appears. Tried from two distinct computers.

OK, I am working on getting it online and publicly available. But for now the synopsis I provided above can still be somewhat helpful.

 

[vorky]

Special commision about protection of russian home grown players (in all sports, includingg hockey) will take place in April 2017. Russia does want to ban players movement to abroad, but wants to protect interests of russian clubs/players.

http://tass.ru/sport/3779713

Putin said: There must be rules/requirements/conditions - if you have played a few seasons here (at home), you can go to abroad. Legislative acts should be written in the way that the rules would be interesting for players (to stay at home), protecting interests of russian clubs and Russia to be part of international sport movement. We have to create conditions for players they would not want to move abroad - it means (mainly) financial and training conditions.

http://www.hclokomotiv.ru/news/news/tsvety_k_memorialu/

 

[wings5]

Special commision about protection of russian home grown players (in all sports, includingg hockey) will take place in April 2017. Russia does want to ban players movement to abroad, but wants to protect interests of russian clubs/players.

http://tass.ru/sport/3779713

Putin said: There must be rules/requirements/conditions - if you have played a few seasons here (at home), you can go to abroad. Legislative acts should be written in the way that the rules would be interesting for players (to stay at home), protecting interests of russian clubs and Russia to be part of international sport movement. We have to create conditions for players they would not want to move abroad - it means (mainly) financial and training conditions.

http://www.hclokomotiv.ru/news/news/tsvety_k_memorialu/

These days players move mainly to improve their draft position or chances of getting drafted, because their agents told tell them is is the best way to get to the NHL, or because they believe playing in CHL in front of thousands of fans is more exciting than playing in front of hundreds in Russia ( they feel like mini superstars). I don't know if MHL will be able to compete attendance wise with the CHL but the other factors should be addressed and there should be some sort of contract which forces them to stay. Of course I predict then more players 13-16 years old would leave for North America earlier to avoid these binding contracts.

 

[Peter25]

I hope that they (Russians) finally take some action. This stupidity (players leaving too early) has been going for.... over two decades.

 

[malkinfan]

IMO its not the players to focus attention on, it the agents. These guys get huge money from players moving to CHL so they push it. If these guys are straightened out, the problem goes away.

For example, even though were seeing record amount of players in NA, only 5/17 drafted Russians were playing in NA. 3 of those guys, Sergachev, Abramov and Sokolov were to be drafted no matter where they played, it could be argued Abramov and Sokolov only slipped in the draft by coming to NA. The only players it had benefit to was Boblyov, who subsequently moved back to the KHL, and Zaitsev who was mostly taken based on his U18 WJC performance (his presence there only due to Melodonium scandal).

Yet still even more players poured into NA this year, because agents dont show the kids the story as described above.

 

[Daximus]

That is crazy. Legislation to force your athletes to stay in their country... What happens if they just leave anyways? Jail time?

 

[kunekune]

That is crazy. Legislation to force your athletes to stay in their country... What happens if they just leave anyways? Jail time?

Yeah, just like it was during Soviet Union.

 

[Fantomas]

It's the right thing to do. Sign these athletes to longer binding contracts. Pay them well. Limit the influence of agents with strong CHL ties. Do not accept foreign money.

Russia does not need to validate or respect the results of any North American drafts - CHL, NHL or otherwise. The only thing that can end Russia's addiction to the American dollar is clear and binding legislation.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah, just like it was during Soviet Union.

No doubt. Take away a players right to choose their path and you will end up with some unhappy players.

 

[Daximus]

It's the right thing to do. Sign these athletes to longer binding contracts. Pay them well. Limit the influence of agents with strong CHL ties. Do not accept foreign money.

Russia does not need to validate or respect the results of any North American drafts - CHL, NHL or otherwise. The only thing that can end Russia's addiction to the American dollar is clear and binding legislation.

They should validate and respect the right for their athletes to choose their own path. Whether it's motivated by money or not.

 

[Fantomas]

They should validate and respect the right for their athletes to choose their own path. Whether it's motivated by money or not.

You are simply projecting the individualistic ideology you have learned in the West, which you believe to be objectively true.

The Russian mentality on this is different. Every player is brought up by the community, the system, and should give back to the community that nurtured them.

This does not mean that movement will be completely verboten. Rather players will sign longer contracts at a young age, which will stipulate that in order to take advantage of their learning they will be bound to their program for a period of time.

After some time they become free agents at an age that I hope will be reasonable.

 

[Fantomas]

Westerners often espouse individualistic values as if they have some kind of universal applicability. But these values are ultimately self-serving, because global capitalism reinforces American hegemony and impoverishes economically disadvantaged nations.

The only way forward for Russia is to resist, not give in.

 

[Striiker]

I hope that they (Russians) finally take some action. This stupidity (players leaving too early) has been going for.... over two decades.

Yeah screw those players for wanting to get ready to play in the best league in the world.

How dare they prepare for NA hockey by playing in NA? Treasonous fools.

The players aren't being ruined by going to the CHL and then underwhelming in the NHL, they're just getting exposed by playing in the best league against the best players. Either they're good enough or they aren't. If the CHL is able to produce elite players so often obviously it's not the league that's the issue. Players who come over and can't cut it in the NHL we're going to fail either way, regardless of whether they stayed in Russia or not.

What you should be mad about is that the KHL able to keep the best players. Thats the real issue for Russian fans and players.

 

[Daximus]

You are simply projecting the individualistic ideology you have learned in the West, which you believe to be objectively true.

The Russian mentality on this is different. Every player is brought up by the community, the system, and should give back to the community that nurtured them.

This does not mean that movement will be completely verboten. Rather players will sign longer contracts at a young age, which will stipulate that in order to take advantage of their learning they will be bound to their program for a period of time.

After some time they become free agents at an age that I hope will be reasonable.

If the Russian mentality on it was different then Russians would actually be doing it more often. Instead they are leaving so they obviously could give a crap about the community that nurtured them.

Then older Russians will all come over and only sign with top teams for top dollar and some will still be terrible at adjusting and head home with their tails between their legs. And everyone will realise that it's really just a waste of time to attempt it.

I hope more young Russians leave even earlier now just to say **** you to the system that they supposedly feel they should give back too.