Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings 2021 Summer Prospect #2

[HisNoodliness]

Man...I really hope to whatever higher power there is that Edvinsson becomes NOTHING like Ristolainen. He is the last big, athletic defenseman I want him modeling his game after.

I know you're replying to someone that used Risto as an example, but I think Edvinsson will be nothing like him. I think the point that even in the worst case scenario Edvinsson will have similar minutes and role to Risto is fair. But in terms of playstyle they're nothing alike. Risto is absolutely terrible at defending. He gets beat wide on the rush, he can't maintain a good gap, and doesn't effectively box his man out in the defensive zone. These are all things that Edvinsson is excellent at. To me Edvinsson's worst case scenario is a faster but less physical Erik Cernak. Great defensive player especially in transition, passable offensively as a facilitator but not much of a creator or difference maker in the offensive zone. Always able to maintain a great gap and positioning and at the very least force his forward to the outside with his size and skating.

Now, a less physical, faster Cernak is not what I want out of him. I want him to be a true workhorse for us. I don't think he will ever be as effective as Hedman in the offensive zone, but I think that it is not crazy to think he can be every bit as good as Hedman at everything else. Elite defensive play, elite transition game, elite ability to evade pressure and navigate through the opposition leveraging his size, speed and hands. Will his shot get to the level to consistently score? Not without unrealistically good development. Will he ever be an elite passer? Not without unrealistically good development. But if he can get better at everything he does well while becoming serviceable at his weaknesses, he will be an absolute monster for us.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I know you're replying to someone that used Risto as an example, but I think Edvinsson will be nothing like him. I think the point that even in the worst case scenario Edvinsson will have similar minutes and role to Risto is fair. But in terms of playstyle they're nothing alike. Risto is absolutely terrible at defending. He gets beat wide on the rush, he can't maintain a good gap, and doesn't effectively box his man out in the defensive zone. These are all things that Edvinsson is excellent at. To me Edvinsson's worst case scenario is a faster but less physical Erik Cernak. Great defensive player especially in transition, passable offensively as a facilitator but not much of a creator or difference maker in the offensive zone. Always able to maintain a great gap and positioning and at the very least force his forward to the outside with his size and skating.

Now, a less physical, faster Cernak is not what I want out of him. I want him to be a true workhorse for us. I don't think he will ever be as effective as Hedman in the offensive zone, but I think that it is not crazy to think he can be every bit as good as Hedman at everything else. Elite defensive play, elite transition game, elite ability to evade pressure and navigate through the opposition leveraging his size, speed and hands. Will his shot get to the level to consistently score? Not without unrealistically good development. Will he ever be an elite passer? Not without unrealistically good development. But if he can get better at everything he does well while becoming serviceable at his weaknesses, he will be an absolute monster for us.

Read the previous two posts.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I know it is whatever percent chance we get after our bottom 10 finish this year, but if we land Wright. We have a championship caliber roster in short order. I know that is a big if and we would have to be lucky as hell. But it is kind of exciting that if we get lucky we are probably just that from being a legitimately good team again. Now he is a special talent, the best since McDavid in my opinion, but yeah getting lucky in either of the next two years would allow Stevie to get aggressive and pull us out of the rebuild and back into post-season hockey.

You can see the depth in the system starting to arrive. We still need a couple more elite guys, but with that players start to really slot correctly. I am impressed with the way Yzerman is doing this. It is methodical and I think really well though out. I like the guys he has picked, I like the upside and I like going for the defenders that have the longer arc and goalie first. Now we hopefully get elite guys up front in the next two drafts and get a little lucky with all of these prospects, we are going to need some of these guys to outkick their coverage or get lottery luck, but you can kind of see the vision. It still has a ways to go and we still need these guys to really hit on their development, but I am excited for the first time in a little bit.

This, however, I agree with. We are one or two elite prospects away from looking like we may be able to build a legit contender.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This, however, I agree with. We are one or two elite prospects away from looking like we may be able to build a legit contender.

A word of caution: Successful teams don't usually have a ton of top 5 and top 10 homegrown picks in their lineup when they're in contender mode.

Tampa - Hedman and Stamkos
Chicago - Toews and Kane. They traded Cam Barker for Jonsson and Leddy prior to the postseason in 2010.
Washington - Ovechkin and Backstrom. Alzner didn't play in the 2018 postseason
Pittsburgh - Malkin, Crosby, Fleury, Staal (in 2009)

Buffalo being the inverse of this had 7 or 8 of their own top 10 picks in their lineup last year, and 3 other trash team's top 10 picks. (Okposo, Skinner, Hall)

Detroit is looking like they will be in their 6th year of picking top 10, and 2023 could very well be another bottom 10 finish. That should give us some pause. Teams that pick that low that often historically have a really hard time of pulling themselves out of the basement and staying out long term.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I loved Gus Nyquist, but Berggren if he fully reaches his upside is Gus Nyquist.

No way. Berggren is just straight up more skilled, more elusive, more creative, smarter, and a much better playmaker.

What Nyquist had when he was at his best, was a great motor and a goalscoring touch, and maaaaaybe a little bit better defense, but everything else Berggren just has a much higher ceiling.

I say that as a huge fan of Nyquist and without saying it's 100% that Berggren turns into the better NHLer. But I think the chance is very good.

 

[Frk It]

As far as Edvinsson goes, not really sure I have concerns he goes the Ristolainen route.

Guess my concern would be he goes more the Hanifin/Lindholm route and the offense doesn’t really come along as much as you’d hope.

He has the foundation to become a very impactful defenseman, it’s all going to come down to development for him.

 

[Frk It]

I think that is a pretty good one and with Seider already arriving this year, I am not sure we need him to be more than that. It slots in correctly to our build. I think that is exactly why Yzerman and Draper went this way. I am fascinated to see how Edvinsson grows this year, I think that part is key to this, he has a lot of room to grow

Puck retrieval and controlled zone exits.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

As far as Edvinsson goes, not really sure I have concerns he goes the Ristolainen route.

Guess my concern would be he goes more the Hanifin/Lindholm route and the offense doesn’t really come along as much as you’d hope.

He has the foundation to become a very impactful defenseman, it’s all going to come down to development for him.

I think the point is you're getting a top 4 guy to some extent. Where his offense is and how good he really gets at certain aspects will determine just how good, but with his skill set a top 4 D-man is pretty safe in terms of Edvinsson.

 

[Frk It]

add this kid… I think he has a strong season playing with O’Brien or Peterson in the top 6 as a Junior.

 

[jaster]

No way. Berggren is just straight up more skilled, more elusive, more creative, smarter, and a much better playmaker.

What Nyquist had when he was at his best, was a great motor and a goalscoring touch, and maaaaaybe a little bit better defense, but everything else Berggren just has a much higher ceiling.

I say that as a huge fan of Nyquist and without saying it's 100% that Berggren turns into the better NHLer. But I think the chance is very good.

I sense some serious recency bias here. Nyquist was a magician against sub-NHL competition, just like Berggren. No two players are exactly the same, but these two guys are like looking at an only slightly warped mirror. If a gap exists in any of skill, creativity, elusiveness, intelligence, or playmaking, it is far smaller than you think. I'd say Nyquist easily has him in elusiveness and IQ right now at least. Berggren's game, like Nyquist's before him, is not going to seamlessly translate to the NHL level as well as a lot of other types. I get the excitement about Berggren, but his game dominance is going to dial further back at the NHL level than it seems a lot of people are expecting.

I will be surprised if Berggren becomes as good as Nyquist. They are similar, but Berggren has a long way to go to get to the same level. His trajectory is almost the same, but he still has several developmental stages where there is opportunity for him to fall off. His range of outcomes remains wide. To me, he'll most likely be a poor man's Nyquist. I obviously hope for more, but that's what I would bet on at this point in time.

 

[jaster]

add this kid… I think he has a strong season playing with O’Brien or Peterson in the top 6 as a Junior.

Have been a big fan of this kid since he was drafted. Really hoping for a big year this year, would like to see him remain on a good trajectory. He needs to take a big jump and I think he's poised for it.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

If Berggren become Nyquist that's a very good thing.

A career top 6 forward who earns a 5.5m$ cap hit is nothing to look down at.

 

[The Zermanator]

Went with Raymond, but had a real tough time deciding between him and Berggren. The former has a plethora of very exciting tools, but it just hasn't quite come together yet. At least in terms of being a difference maker. Berggren, on the other hand, has put together an extremely promising season in the SHL. And that's coming off losing a lot of time to injury as well. It's really hard to pass up some proven production vs raw potential, but what put Raymond ahead for me is that he is a very low-risk prospect IMO. He's got elite skills that translate well to the NHL. Package that with the great head on his shoulders, having gotten fantastic reviews from coaches on his work ethic and leadership, and I see a player with a high floor. He may not end up an elite winger like we hope, but I have a hard time seeing him as anything worse than a very good 2W. While Berggren may very well end up a 1W himself (though odds are much lower than Raymond), he has a lower floor too. I can see a letter on Raymond's chest in the future, along with Larkin and Seider.

This thread has already changed my mind about #3, however. I was sure it would be the other of Raymond/Berggren, but you've changed my mind on Edvinsson. I wasn't down on him per se, but it was the same proven production vs potential debate as with Berggren and Raymond, with Edvinsson losing out due to just being drafted. But the floor argument wins out again. We have a real exciting D core shaping up, with Hronek being established and Seider seeming almost like a can't miss prospect. So if Edvinsson realistically bottoms out as a 4D, then that's 75% of our future top 4 sorted. Then there's still Johansson, Buium, and Co. All we need is one of them to step up and there's your top 4. So if Edvinsson can be pencilled into a similar role as McDonagh has played on Tampa the last few seasons, with potential to develop an additional offensive gear, then that's great value on the pick.

So that'll leave Berggren, a guy I very nearly voted #2 ahead of the likes of a 4th OA pick, as the #4 prospect for me. That's a testament to how much has changed in this franchise over the last couple years and what that suggests for the future.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I sense some serious recency bias here. Nyquist was a magician against sub-NHL competition, just like Berggren. No two players are exactly the same, but these two guys are like looking at an only slightly warped mirror. If a gap exists in any of skill, creativity, elusiveness, intelligence, or playmaking, it is far smaller than you think. I'd say Nyquist easily has him in elusiveness and IQ right now at least. Berggren's game, like Nyquist's before him, is not going to seamlessly translate to the NHL level as well as a lot of other types. I get the excitement about Berggren, but his game dominance is going to dial further back at the NHL level than it seems a lot of people are expecting.

I will be surprised if Berggren becomes as good as Nyquist. They are similar, but Berggren has a long way to go to get to the same level. His trajectory is almost the same, but he still has several developmental stages where there is opportunity for him to fall off. His range of outcomes remains wide. To me, he'll most likely be a poor man's Nyquist. I obviously hope for more, but that's what I would bet on at this point in time.

Poor man's Nyquist? Now you're underrating Berggren. He's a better skater than Nyquist was, and is at least as smart offensively. Just watch how he runs the play. He wasn't just raking in 2nd assists from chipping the puck into the corner. The guy has a legitimately elite offensive IQ.

 

[jaster]

Poor man's Nyquist? Now you're underrating Berggren. He's a better skater than Nyquist was, and is at least as smart offensively. Just watch how he runs the play. He wasn't just raking in 2nd assists from chipping the puck into the corner. The guy has a legitimately elite offensive IQ.

See my second paragraph again. I'm not underrating Berggren. I've watched a bunch of Berggren. I like him for a lot of the same reasons I liked Nyquist. But comparing non-NHL Berggren to NHL-Nyquist is a false equivalency. The biggest difference between the two of them at this point is that Nyquist successfully cleared all of the hurdles to reach the level of NHL success he has to date. Berggren still has to clear most of those hurdles. Maybe he will. Maybe he'll be as good. Odds are against it, is all.

He's also overrated by several of you

 

[Frk It]

Poor man's Nyquist? Now you're underrating Berggren. He's a better skater than Nyquist was, and is at least as smart offensively. Just watch how he runs the play. He wasn't just raking in 2nd assists from chipping the puck into the corner. The guy has a legitimately elite offensive IQ.

Do people remember how good a skater Nyquist was his first few years in the league? He could leave guys in the dust.

 

[jaster]

Do people remember how good a skater Nyquist was his first few years in the league? He could leave guys in the dust.

Apparently not. Nyquist was both quick and highly elusive, moreso than Berggren from what I've seen. Like I said, recency bias is probably at play here.

Here are some respective scouting reports. You could probably flip them.

Nyquist:

Plays with tremendous energy every shift. Has a nice blend of speed, skill and versatility (can play either center or wing), so he can be used in all game situations. Is relentless in his pursuit of the puck. Is also a fine playmaker. Does not have ideal size for the National Hockey League game, so he will need to add significant bulk and strength in order to thrive while playing his energetic style at the highest level. Could stand to shoot the puck more.

Berggren:

Oozes skill and offensive ability. An amazing, elusive and natural skater, he is quite cerebral and a talented playmaker. A natural center, he has converted nicely to the wing and can play on either side of the ice. Is undersized for the North American pro game. As a suspect defender, his play without the puck has greatly improved with time (he plays a very mature game, overall).

 

[Christien]

Lucas Raymond.
Add Antti Tuomisto, he’s gonna breakout big time with Denver

 

[Frk It]

Lucas Raymond.
Add Antti Tuomisto, he’s gonna breakout big time with Denver

Are you a fan of Tuomisto? Go ahead and try and sell me on him, if so. I was never really a fan of that pick.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Apparently not. Nyquist was both quick and highly elusive, moreso than Berggren from what I've seen. Like I said, recency bias is probably at play here.

Here are some respective scouting reports. You could probably flip them.

Nyquist:


Berggren:

Those reports do a decent job describing their differences and aren’t interchangeable at all.

Berggren is the kind of player that run a powerplay, Nyquist is not. As one example.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Do people remember how good a skater Nyquist was his first few years in the league? He could leave guys in the dust.

Oh I remember. Nyquist was, and still is, a really good skater. Berggren is even better, and that's saying something.

 

[jaster]

Those reports do a decent job describing their differences and aren’t interchangeable at all.

Berggren is the kind of player that run a powerplay, Nyquist is not. As one example.

They are interchangeable, actually. So much so that I switched the scouting reports and you didn't notice Sorry for the trickery, but I had to underscore the point that they are extremely similar players.

Nyquist could also run a PP at lower levels. And Berggren, like Nyquist, will not be running a PP at the NHL level.

 

[Pavels Dog]

They are interchangeable, actually. So much so that I switched the scouting reports and you didn't notice Sorry for the trickery, but I had to underscore the point that they are extremely similar players.

Nyquist could also run a PP at lower levels. And Berggren, like Nyquist, will not be running a PP at the NHL level.

In that case the scouting is bad, Berggren is not a relentless puck pursuer nor does his game rely on high energy.
He’s cerebral and picks his spots, reading the play 2-3 steps ahead.

Berggren will likely run the Wings powerplay next season.

 

[jaster]

I'm glad Berggren has his superfans. That's not a slight, I've been a superfan of other prospects. And I do really like Berggren. I think you guys are living on the very high end of what he may be. Nothing wrong with that and I hope he does reach his absolute ceiling. We'll see. We'll have to circle back on these discussions in the future

I don't like how disrespectful you've both been to Gustav Nyquist though

 

[Hen Kolland]

In that case the scouting is bad, Berggren is not a relentless puck pursuer nor does his game rely on high energy.
He’s cerebral and picks his spots, reading the play 2-3 steps ahead.

Berggren will likely run the Wings powerplay next season.

I don’t know what Berggren you watch, but the one thing that always stands out to me is how he constantly moves his feet in the offensive zone like a buzz saw, not so much a cerebral offensive threat

Like if you took Nyquist’s OT goal where he carries the puck and circles the net twice and replaced him with Berggren, I don’t think I would even bat an eye.

They both do better with the puck on their stick, both have a tendency to drift wide in the offensive zone, both have a tendency to try to distribute more than they do shooting.

Nyquist was a more polished defensive player, but not a drastically different level. And Nyquist’s shot is better, but their preference to play set up man kind of renders this kind of moot.

Berggren might think the game better, I can’t pretend to substantiate that based on the difference in league quality and style, but even if he does, I expect it to manifest itself in a similar type of player.

This isn’t a knock on Berggren. Nyquist’s best was that of a first line player, albeit not a special one. If Berggren ultimately makes it as a true and deserving top 6 winger, the draft pick was smashed out of the park.