NFL: Derek Carr benched - Jarrett Stidham new Raiders QB

[StreetHawk]

I have a Lions fan friend who is tight with one of the beat writers (I know which one but I'm not going to post it). My friend swears up and down that the Lions are absolutely not drafting a QB and that the chance to draft two defensive guys in R1 is too good to pass up.

Seattle obviously has the option to draft a QB or keep Geno. I would draft a QB because they're super unlikely to ever pick this high again in any reasonable conditions. If Atlanta and Carolina win again we'll go up as high as 6th. If they don't then there's too many hurdles to draft a QB. I think that leaves Houston, Seattle, Indy as teams that SHOULD draft a QB. I'm writing the Lions off for reasons I already said. I would draft Richardson if he was available no matter what.

Available QB's are Darnold, Minshew, Brady, Geno, Jimmy, Mike White, Daniel Jones, Mayfield. Tbh other than the last three I am fine with this group. Lamar is a free agent too but he's not going anywhere. Also to be honest I am partial to the first three guys on this list. I think if you pay one of these guys 12 million and repurpose the other 28 million that you'd be spending on a QB to defense instead, the team is a lot better off. And do you think any of these guys can play well with weapons at their disposal? I think so. If you intend to draft Richardson then the drafter should trend towards the last four guys in that group, but if you intend to sign one of those first three QB's, you should draft some defense.

You have to attach names to the QBs. Because, each team will value each one differently.
Young - size issue with no high end physical traits.
Stroud - with a loaded roster, expected more production
Levis - didn't see the reduction in mistakes that was hoped for in year 2 as a starter. But, has the physical tools to be great. You need a very good OC and or HC to mold him.

And honestly, you should use the likes of Carr as a baseline as to how good these QBs in the draft can be. Are any likely to be better than Carr down the line? If the answer is no, then they shouldn't go as high.
Seattle uses Geno Smith as their benchmark. Detroit uses Goff as theirs. If neither club views these QBs to be better than either guy that they currently have, then there is no point in taking a QB that high. Plus Seattle, has months to work out a new deal with Smith. If they can get him signed in around $25 million per, I'd likely just ride with him vs draft and develop a QB

But, with Carr, the dead money is the 3 years of $1.875 million, so his cap charge to a new team, if traded is like $32 mill in 2023 and then like $41 mill in 2024 and 2025. I would think any acquiring team would look to re-work the deal for 2024 and 2025 years. Given the number of teams in search of a QB, Raiders should be able to receive a 2nd round pick in return and another conditional pick. I don't see them landing a first round pick given the teams that would be involved.

Richardson is really raw as a 1 year starter. I don't know if McDaniels has that much of a leash to ride with someone that raw. Richardson would have to ball out like a Herbert did in his rookie year to be content with a 5-12 season next year.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

It's amazing how the organization could try and sell such a boldfaced lie.

No one is evaluating Jarrett Stidham's ass. This is all about making it easier to get themselves out of Carr commitment and waive the white flag on the season/tank.

Raiders technically aren't eliminated, but with who they have to face final 2 games and all the help they need, they might as well be.

Sucks for Carr and I'd be concerned about losing the locker room and your other players with this but it is what it is.

 

[StreetHawk]

It's amazing how the organization could try and sell such a boldfaced lie.

No one is evaluating Jarrett Stidham's ass. This is all about making it easier to get themselves out of Carr commitment and waive the white flag on the season/tank.

Raiders technically aren't eliminated, but with who they have to face final 2 games and all the help they need, they might as well be.

Sucks for Carr and I'd be concerned about losing the locker room and your other players with this but it is what it is.

Listening to PFT with Florio and Simms, they discussed Carr's contract in that the $40 mill vests after the SB, and they are not permitted to trade him until the league year ends/begins in mid March. Now, is that amount of money over the top of what Carr would earn on a new contract with another team? He's a veteran, so wouldn't any contract he signs, the base salary for 2023 would become fully guaranteed once he is on the active roster before game 1 of the NFL season? Similar to how Jimmy G's contract at $27 million would become fully guaranteed once the season began for SF?

So, this situation gets interesting in that the Raiders don't have their next QB on the roster right now. So, do they want to have nothing heading into the NFL off-season? Going to be interesting.

 

[EpochLink]

Listening to PFT with Florio and Simms, they discussed Carr's contract in that the $40 mill vests after the SB, and they are not permitted to trade him until the league year ends/begins in mid March. Now, is that amount of money over the top of what Carr would earn on a new contract with another team? He's a veteran, so wouldn't any contract he signs, the base salary for 2023 would become fully guaranteed once he is on the active roster before game 1 of the NFL season? Similar to how Jimmy G's contract at $27 million would become fully guaranteed once the season began for SF?

So, this situation gets interesting in that the Raiders don't have their next QB on the roster right now. So, do they want to have nothing heading into the NFL off-season? Going to be interesting.

Draft a QB, let him develop behind a veteran QB.

Carr has finally lost the leash in regards to the management, I for one am glad we are finally moving on and don't have to countless defend the guy behind 'stats'. Any Raiders fan bringing up stats on Carr can throw that away since it don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

Maybe his brother on NFL network can sell him to another team now, also the CARRdashian fans can finally be quiet.

 

[BB88]

Seems like in media he’s the QB who gets given the most excuses about.

With Carr it’s always someone else

 

[Live in the Now]

Richardson is really raw as a 1 year starter. I don't know if McDaniels has that much of a leash to ride with someone that raw. Richardson would have to ball out like a Herbert did in his rookie year to be content with a 5-12 season next year.

Yeah I dunno if he does either, but I am down bad for Richardson. Back during the Utah game I was wishing somehow there was a way.

 

[EpochLink]

Seems like in media he’s the QB who gets given the most excuses about.

With Carr it’s always someone else

He got called out by Rich Gannon, Stephen A Smith, Mike Florio, Max Kellerman, the list goes on. When the Raiders got Davante Adams, his brother was selling his stock high how this offense is finally gonna show Carr's ability. Well, it never really did but Adams is having a good season.

 

[StreetHawk]

Draft a QB, let him develop behind a veteran QB.

Carr has finally lost the leash in regards to the management, I for one am glad we are finally moving on and don't have to countless defend the guy behind 'stats'. Any Raiders fan bringing up stats on Carr can throw that away since it don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

Maybe his brother on NFL network can sell him to another team now, also the CARRdashian fans can finally be quiet.

Unless McDaniels is going to commit to that young QB down the line, I don't think it's worth spending a 2nd round pick on that guy, be it a Jurkovoc from Boston College, Hall from BYU, or whomever. Not when you don't have a set veteran where you can just simply roll the dice on a 3rd round or later pick and see how it goes. Cause, you do need to sell the team on that QB.

Question is really, how are the Raider's expectations for next season and what is their plan at QB? The QB decision will dictate the expectations.

I do think it's time to move off Carr. Cap hit isn't horrible next season at $33 mill, but it's the following 2 years when it's $43 mill that it becomes an issue. If this is the best you are getting out of Carr now, it's not good enough.

 

[GKJ]

He got called out by Rich Gannon, Stephen A Smith, Mike Florio, Max Kellerman, the list goes on. When the Raiders got Davante Adams, his brother was selling his stock high how this offense is finally gonna show Carr's ability. Well, it never really did but Adams is having a good season.

Who the heck cares about those guys?

The smart people knew what Derek Carr is, he’s Andy Dalton. 2nd round pick, good-not-great for 9 years, 3x pro bowler, now he’s gonna bounce around. The difference bring that Carr got submarined with an injury and a worse team built around him at the height of his career.

Not many QB’s up their game and become elite 9 years into their career in this day and age. Rich Gannon did, so I get that one, but that was a bad era for quarterbacks.

 

[StreetHawk]

Who the heck cares about those guys?

The smart people knew what Derek Carr is, he’s Andy Dalton. 2nd round pick, good-not-great for 9 years, 3x pro bowler, now he’s gonna bounce around. The difference bring that Carr got submarined with an injury and a worse team built around him at the height of his career.

Not many QB’s up their game and become elite 9 years into their career in this day and age. Rich Gannon did, so I get that one, but that was a bad era for quarterbacks.

Gannon also landed with Gruden who was at his peak, plus a very good veteran roster, adding the likes of Rice, R. Woodson and others at the time.

At this point, Carr is who he is. In that, unlike Gannon, he was in and out as a starter for KC and Minny earlier in his career, Carr has been a starter since day 1. His mechanics, anticipation, reading defences, accuracy are what they are. It's not going to jump to an elite level. Can he ever play like he did in the year he broke his ankle in game 15 and had to miss the Houston PO game? Unlikely. Shanahan elevated Ryan into an MVP candidate in ATL, but could only do so much with Jimmy where he has to take the ball out of his hands in games.

Derek Carr

Derek Carr contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Per Spotrac, there are 3 interesting Notes to his contract. Carr has a full no trade clause. So, even if the Raiders opted to keep him until after the contract vests for that $40 mill in guaranteed money, Carr would need to ok any trade, once the new league year begins in mid March. So, he's picking his spot, be it the Jets, Falcons, Giants, Texans, Colts, Titans, Dolphins, etc. For the Raiders, they wouldn't want to retain any part of the contract. Again, the base salary for 2023 isn't a big deal as that is close to what he likely signs for in the open market. But, he would then have $7.5 million of the 2024 base salary guaranteed. How much control do the Raiders want to hand Carr? If he played out the season, then maybe he would accept a trade out of LV and work with the team. But, getting benched with 2 games left, probably that option is out the window.

so, based on this information, I now feel that Carr is going to get cut in February 2023.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

He got called out by Rich Gannon, Stephen A Smith, Mike Florio, Max Kellerman, the list goes on. When the Raiders got Davante Adams, his brother was selling his stock high how this offense is finally gonna show Carr's ability. Well, it never really did but Adams is having a good season.

So what we learned is that elite players (Adams) are elite players, while mediocre players (Carr) are mediocre players.

Hard hitting analysis by The Green Teabagger right here, folks.

 

[Super Fadio Bro]

Getting Devanta Adams (obviously) didn't fix him.

It's time to move on.

 

[StreetHawk]

Assuming Carr gets cut, I do wonder what his next contract will look like. Who is going to give him 4-5 years and like $60-65 million guaranteed (be it $30 mill in SB and guaranteeing the 2023 base salary or something).

Carr had a cap hit of under $20 mill this season for the Raiders. Next season it would have jumped to $35 million. Raiders don't feel like they are going to get $15 mill more of production compared to this season. And then it would have jumped again into like $44 million and $43 million the following 2 seasons.

 

[DueDiligence]

Listening to PFT with Florio and Simms,

Well you lose a lot of credibility quoting those two.

 

[Hasbro]

Unless McDaniels is going to commit to that young QB down the line, I don't think it's worth spending a 2nd round pick on that guy, be it a Jurkovoc from Boston College, Hall from BYU, or whomever. Not when you don't have a set veteran where you can just simply roll the dice on a 3rd round or later pick and see how it goes. Cause, you do need to sell the team on that QB.

Question is really, how are the Raider's expectations for next season and what is their plan at QB? The QB decision will dictate the expectations.

I do think it's time to move off Carr. Cap hit isn't horrible next season at $33 mill, but it's the following 2 years when it's $43 mill that it becomes an issue. If this is the best you are getting out of Carr now, it's not good enough.

He can turn a high school QB into an all pro.

 

[StreetHawk]

Well you lose a lot of credibility quoting those two.

more for the business side of the operations of the CBA than their opinions on football situations.

It's more for the vesting of the contract and that he can't be dealt until the new league year in March. Which I had not realized. That makes a trade much more difficult to execute, not to mention reading up on his contract where Carr holds a NTC. I can't see him working with LV for a good landing for both sides.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

It's amazing how the organization could try and sell such a boldfaced lie.

No one is evaluating Jarrett Stidham's ass. This is all about making it easier to get themselves out of Carr commitment and waive the white flag on the season/tank.

Raiders technically aren't eliminated, but with who they have to face final 2 games and all the help they need, they might as well be.

Sucks for Carr and I'd be concerned about losing the locker room and your other players with this but it is what it is.

It's for legal and PR reasons. Keep the statements that go to ink vanilla and cliche...those statements cannot be acted against.

 

[EpochLink]

So what we learned is that elite players (Adams) are elite players, while mediocre players (Carr) are mediocre players.

Hard hitting analysis by The Green Teabagger right here, folks.

Carr is what he is, mediocre.
I’m a happy Raiders fan right now, no more Carr.

Getting Devanta Adams (obviously) didn't fix him.

It's time to move on.

And good riddance to Carr, send his ass to Indy.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Devante Adams is a good WR but he is not Randy Moss or T.O. Aaron Rodgers had some growing pains but it seems Christian Watson or Doubs will have what Adams had come next year. There is no way Carr-Adams would be like Culpepper and Moss.

Quite frankly, I think the Adams move may not have been about the Raiders at all, but a distant way for a particular clique to screw over the Chiefs and make the AFC winnable for the Bills right now and the Pats in the future. McDaniels dismantled the Broncos...and it may have been to not have Shanahan stop the Pats like the Broncos did in 2006.

 

[DueDiligence]

more for the business side of the operations of the CBA than their opinions on football situations.

It's more for the vesting of the contract and that he can't be dealt until the new league year in March. Which I had not realized. That makes a trade much more difficult to execute, not to mention reading up on his contract where Carr holds a NTC. I can't see him working with LV for a good landing for both sides.

Agreed. Carr will be cut as it's best for the Raiders if they have decide to move on.

 

[StreetHawk]

Agreed. Carr will be cut as it's best for the Raiders if they have decide to move on.

I think the raiders could have moved him even if the $40 mill became guaranteed. It’s all base salary that becomes guaranteed and once a vet like is on the roster the Saturday before week 1, his contract becomes guaranteed anyways. It’s just eh extra $7.5 mill of rhe 2024 salary that also becomes guaranteed which isn’t a huge amount. And most likely the acquiring team would redo his contract for 2024.

But it’s the No Trade Clause that is going to be a problem. Not sure if wouldn’t have just played him the final 2 games and still keep him in good graces to ok a trade. But I guess this way, it ensures the raiders are not on the hook if they don’t feel that Carr will work with them.

I do not see a reason for Carr to waive his ntc. $40 mill guaranteed on this deal. But as a ufa like Cousins was 5 years ago Carr will get a nice contract most likely with around $60-$65 mill guaranteed just due to the number of teams needing a QB. Better for Carr to decide his future anyways. I would probably tell LV that I wouldn’t ok any deal and dare them to call my bluff so that I could pick my destination.

 

[Troy McClure]

I think the raiders could have moved him even if the $40 mill became guaranteed. It’s all base salary that becomes guaranteed and once a vet like is on the roster the Saturday before week 1, his contract becomes guaranteed anyways. It’s just eh extra $7.5 mill of rhe 2024 salary that also becomes guaranteed which isn’t a huge amount. And most likely the acquiring team would redo his contract for 2024.

But it’s the No Trade Clause that is going to be a problem. Not sure if wouldn’t have just played him the final 2 games and still keep him in good graces to ok a trade. But I guess this way, it ensures the raiders are not on the hook if they don’t feel that Carr will work with them.

I do not see a reason for Carr to waive his ntc. $40 mill guaranteed on this deal. But as a ufa like Cousins was 5 years ago Carr will get a nice contract most likely with around $60-$65 mill guaranteed just due to the number of teams needing a QB. Better for Carr to decide his future anyways. I would probably tell LV that I wouldn’t ok any deal and dare them to call my bluff so that I could pick my destination.

Carr is also in the position where, if playing is his priority, he can be fine with seeing money forfeited if it means the chance to move to where he can start.

 

[StreetHawk]

Carr is also in the position where, if playing is his priority, he can be fine with seeing money forfeited if it means the chance to move to where he can start.

Carr will be a starter next season. It’s just a matter of how many other teams view him as a good starter.
Jets, dolphins, Texans, Titans, Colts, Giants, Commanders, Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, even the Seahawks (though I think they stick with Geno as I doubt they want to try to outbid those other clubs) don’t have a locked in QB for next season.
Carr has been in the NFL for 9 seasons and has made $135.6 mill so far. So he’s been paid well compared to other positions.
Carr has his supporters and detractors I’m sure around the nfl. IMO, Carr is what he is now. He’s been a 9 year starter and after 9 seasons will only not have started like 5 games over those 9 seasons for the raiders. So his anticipation, Accuracy, reading defences, pocket awareness, etc. is not going to improve much given all of rhe live reps he’s gotten to date. He’s somewhere between the 11-16 best starter in the nfl imo. But he needs to be paid rhe right amount. I would not pay him an average of $40 mill. Which is currently what his deal calls cap hit wise at $34 mill then $44 mill then 43 mill without any adjustments to it.

This based on the cap hits I understand LV not wanting to commit to him as he only counted under $20 mill against the cap with just $5.6 mill in dead cap in 2023. They didn’t feel that he was going to be $15 mill against the cap more productive next season.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

No chance that Carr isn't starting week 1 next year barring injury. I get it, though I do feel for him. By all accounts seems like a good man and a good teammate. Adams does not seem happy about it though.

 

[StreetHawk]

No chance that Carr isn't starting week 1 next year barring injury. I get it, though I do feel for him. By all accounts seems like a good man and a good teammate. Adams does not seem happy about it though.

No doubt Adams is but if he wasn’t buddies and college teammates with Carr would he be as bummed about it?

Production wasn’t there this season.

And let’s not forget the cap hit. Carr counted just $20 mill against the cap in 2022. He counts almost $35 mill in 2023 and $44 mill in 2024 and 2025. So they bet that he’s not going to improve his play by $15 mill against the cap.

I think we get to see what Carr is really like on another franchise next season. Whether he was cursed with a poor organization or whether he’s not as good as the glimpses he shows.

I think your opinion on Carr and the other tier 2 QBs changes based on their cap hits. At under $30 he’s fine. If he’s averaging $40 mill vs the cap like he is scheduled to be over the next 3 seasons, you have a different opinion on him. Expectations changes based on the salary cap hits.