Someone will trade for Carr, and he will restructure to make it happen. And he will not use his NTC either. We saw what teams gave up for Stafford and Wentz, Carr fits somewhere in the middle. Seeing the carousel last year, hopefully he and his camp are smart.
Per the details about Carr's contract that we are hearing, I don't think the chances of a trade for LV are very good.
1) if he could not pass his exit physical, then the $40 mill in guaranteed money (2023 Base and $7.5 mill for 2024 vests automatically). That is why they are benching him
2) If he does pass his exit physical, the Raiders have until 3 days after the Super Bowl to cut him, otherwise, his $40 mill in guaranteed money does vest. Benching Carr gives them the option to cut him and not be on the hook for that $40 million.
3) NFL league year begins after mid March, so around a 6 week time difference. If LV and another team agree on a deal during that time, it is not enforceable should one party opt out of the agreement come the start of the league year. Basically a team could McDaniels Josh McDaniels (like what he did to Indy). So, there is risk for the Raiders that Carr will be on the roster and be disgruntled.
4) Carr holds a NTC, which weakens the Raiders options to trade him. They may get less than they desire and/or have to retain part of his contract to move him.
5) Carr is pissed off and is unlikely to work with LV. Either dare them to cut him or guarantee his $40 million
6) Regardless as a free agent or trade Carr has to have a new contract. No team is going to want to have Carr count as a $42 million cap charge in 2024 and 2025 (which are his base salary and option amounts). He'd have to play like he did in 2016 when he played like an MVP but broke his ankle in game 15 vs Indy. Plus, Carr would likely want guaranteed money from another organization to ensure he is getting an opportunity to play more than 1 year for them and get his much desired stability at this point in his career. So, he might as well have 5-10 teams coming after him than be limited to who can agree to a trade with LV.
If the Raiders hold onto Carr past the date his $40 mill vests and then go onto sign say Tom Brady, Carr doesn't want to be on the bench and thus will agree to be traded. But, we saw what happened with the Browns and Baker once they acquired Watson. Ate like 2/3 of his contract to move him. That's the fear for the Raiders. Carr is better than Baker overall (not as much up and down), but you don't want to lose leverage in a transaction. Raiders would need to move Carr first then sign Brady to have the leverage that the Colts did with Wentz last season. Days later they acquired Ryan.
$33 mill isn't a horrible amount cap hit wise to take for Carr next season in a trade. Even the $7.5 mill in dead money for 2024 should it not work out isn't terrible either. But, like Russ Wilson, I don't see Carr landing in a new team without a new contract done. Reality of the leverage/business of the NFL.
