NFL: Derek Carr benched - Jarrett Stidham new Raiders QB

[StreetHawk]

He would be picking it be agreeing to the contract. If he doesn’t, there’s no deal. They’ll have a deal before the Super Bowl, too. Maybe they’ll get compensated for eating the cap number. Raiders will be looking for a QB, too, if it’s in the draft, they will be incentivized because they won’t have to pay him.


They can also wait until next year. The draftniks seem to be liking that class more than this one now.

Again, it's a few weeks difference between the contract vesting and the start of the new league year when they can trade him. So, there is risk of another club backing out. I wouldn't deal with Indy in the event Ballard carries bad blood with McDaniels, even though the Colts need a QB for next season. I think any other club isn't going to back out of a deal as someone else would make a deal for Carr.

Raiders are eating the $5.6 mill for the Signing Bonus when Carr is moved in 2023. How much more dead cap are they going to be willing to eat? $5 million? $10 mill? More? Not sure.

Carr at $40 mill in guaranteed money isn't the big issue. He'd likely get in the $60 mill range fully guaranteed if he were to become a free agent after getting cut. The issue for the Raiders is more about being on hook for part of that $40 mill on top of the $5.6 mill in dead cap that they have to eat once they move off from him. For another team, they could ask/demand that LV eat $10 mill of the $33 mill base salary in 2023, thus lowering their cap hit on Carr to $23 mill. They can then restructure the balance of Carr's contract to give him like $15-25 million as a SB, pushing his 2023 cap up by $5-$8 mill to get him to between $28-$31 mill. And then reduce his base salaries for 2024 and 2025 down that it ends up being $60 odd mill for 2 years and over $90 mill for 3 years in terms of total cash to them and gives Carr $100 mill total cash when factoring in what LV would pay him. What's the value that the Raiders need to place on that extra dead cap space? Does it get them at least 1 second round pick and a conditional draft pick that can be upgrade 1 round base on Carr's performance in 2023?

I agree with Seattle and Detroit on QBs in this draft. People like to say "draft a QB", but those 2 clubs have smith and Goff and the question for them is whether any of these QBs are going to be better than those 2 in a 3 years time? If the answer isn't a firm yes, then why draft one of them? So long as both guys make the appropriate amount, you can win games with them. Don't pay them $40 mill on average. Goff is under contract for 2 more years with a total of like $63 mill of cap charges, so it's around $31 mill per season. That's probably the max that you want to go with him. Smith, ideally comes in around that $30 million range as well. If he doesn't and tries to push $40 mill range, then Seattle lets him go.

Based on the draft in recent years from guys who would be on the 5th year option, who is better than average or middle of the pack QB?
Baker, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson. 2 of them are better than average
Murray, Jones, Haskins - Murray has maturity issues. The other 2 at best are average.
Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love - 2 of really good. Tua has been average. Had great moments and bad moments this season. Love is an unknown.
Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones - Lawrence and Fields have flashed this season. Jones is average. Wilson appears to be a bust and Lance is still an unknown.
Pickett - appears to be an average QB.

That's like 7 QBs if you put Lawrence and Fields as above average of the 18 QBs on rookie contracts, including their 5th year options. So, 1 above average for every 2.5 round 1 QBs. So, if Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson, and Hooker are expected to be the top 5 QBs, then only 2 will be above average most likely.

 

[GKJ]

Again, it's a few weeks difference between the contract vesting and the start of the new league year when they can trade him. So, there is risk of another club backing out. I wouldn't deal with Indy in the event Ballard carries bad blood with McDaniels, even though the Colts need a QB for next season. I think any other club isn't going to back out of a deal as someone else would make a deal for Carr.

Raiders are eating the $5.6 mill for the Signing Bonus when Carr is moved in 2023. How much more dead cap are they going to be willing to eat? $5 million? $10 mill? More? Not sure.

Carr at $40 mill in guaranteed money isn't the big issue. He'd likely get in the $60 mill range fully guaranteed if he were to become a free agent after getting cut. The issue for the Raiders is more about being on hook for part of that $40 mill on top of the $5.6 mill in dead cap that they have to eat once they move off from him. For another team, they could ask/demand that LV eat $10 mill of the $33 mill base salary in 2023, thus lowering their cap hit on Carr to $23 mill. They can then restructure the balance of Carr's contract to give him like $15-25 million as a SB, pushing his 2023 cap up by $5-$8 mill to get him to between $28-$31 mill. And then reduce his base salaries for 2024 and 2025 down that it ends up being $60 odd mill for 2 years and over $90 mill for 3 years in terms of total cash to them and gives Carr $100 mill total cash when factoring in what LV would pay him. What's the value that the Raiders need to place on that extra dead cap space? Does it get them at least 1 second round pick and a conditional draft pick that can be upgrade 1 round base on Carr's performance in 2023?

I agree with Seattle and Detroit on QBs in this draft. People like to say "draft a QB", but those 2 clubs have smith and Goff and the question for them is whether any of these QBs are going to be better than those 2 in a 3 years time? If the answer isn't a firm yes, then why draft one of them? So long as both guys make the appropriate amount, you can win games with them. Don't pay them $40 mill on average. Goff is under contract for 2 more years with a total of like $63 mill of cap charges, so it's around $31 mill per season. That's probably the max that you want to go with him. Smith, ideally comes in around that $30 million range as well. If he doesn't and tries to push $40 mill range, then Seattle lets him go.

Your McDaniels comparison doesn’t hold up when it comes to people backing out. It was a unique situation. That doesn’t happen.

 

[StreetHawk]

Your McDaniels comparison doesn’t hold up when it comes to people backing out. It was a unique situation. That doesn’t happen.

I agree that your reputation among that small group of GMs and an owners should mean everything to you. Backing out of a deal would blackball you in the eyes of most of the other nfl teams and even agents and makes it harder to do business. But, there’s always that slim chance that it occurs.

Raiders will know pretty quickly what the market for Carr is. Teams wouldn’t want to compete with other clubs and end up with nothing in free agency. There’s agreeing to a trade then on top of that is the new restructured contract for Carr which needs to be agreed upon pretty quickly.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

You must be smoking some good shit to come up with this stuff. The conspiracy stuff is just silly but saying Watson and especially Doubs will be as good next year as Adams was with GB is also pretty insane. Watson could become elite but Adams has been elite for years, he's not just a good receiver lol. Comparing Carr to Trubisky is ridiculous as well.

You do know how the Patriots operate, right? Hard bargainers, never an overpayment, dump before spoilage. I mean, Randy Moss on a one-year contract after a trade for a 4th round pick.

Josh McDaniels always orchestrates a mega-trade that doesn't move the needle of the team he starts a new year with. Cutler in Denver, Adams with the Raiders. His decision-making is so irrational, it allow the mind to wonder. Picking Tebow was a level of nuttery that is either utter incompetence or deliberate boat anchoring.

A great receiver isn't going to save a non-elite QB. If the typical presumption is that there is no consirpacy, then McDaniels mis-evaluated Carr's abilities, believing Carr to be on the same level as Thomas Brady. Because Adams isn't moving the needle like a Moss or T.O. He certainly isn't as good as Justin Jefferson and arguably worse than Kupp.

Carr does better than Trubisky, but no team is foolish enough to think they are getting a dynamic player. Thus, he's relegated to the same role, a placeholder.

I mean, Peter King very diplomatically mentions Carr was missing open guys in the Pittsburgh game.

 

[DaaaaB's]

You do know how the Patriots operate, right? Hard bargainers, never an overpayment, dump before spoilage. I mean, Randy Moss on a one-year contract after a trade for a 4th round pick.

Josh McDaniels always orchestrates a mega-trade that doesn't move the needle of the team he starts a new year with. Cutler in Denver, Adams with the Raiders. His decision-making is so irrational, it allow the mind to wonder. Picking Tebow was a level of nuttery that is either utter incompetence or deliberate boat anchoring.

A great receiver isn't going to save a non-elite QB. If the typical presumption is that there is no consirpacy, then McDaniels mis-evaluated Carr's abilities, believing Carr to be on the same level as Thomas Brady. Because Adams isn't moving the needle like a Moss or T.O. He certainly isn't as good as Justin Jefferson and arguably worse than Kupp.

Carr does better than Trubisky, but no team is foolish enough to think they are getting a dynamic player. Thus, he's relegated to the same role, a placeholder.

I mean, Peter King very diplomatically mentions Carr was missing open guys in the Pittsburgh game.

What a bunch of nonsense.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

You do know how the Patriots operate, right? Hard bargainers, never an overpayment, dump before spoilage. I mean, Randy Moss on a one-year contract after a trade for a 4th round pick.

Josh McDaniels always orchestrates a mega-trade that doesn't move the needle of the team he starts a new year with. Cutler in Denver, Adams with the Raiders. His decision-making is so irrational, it allow the mind to wonder. Picking Tebow was a level of nuttery that is either utter incompetence or deliberate boat anchoring.

A great receiver isn't going to save a non-elite QB. If the typical presumption is that there is no consirpacy, then McDaniels mis-evaluated Carr's abilities, believing Carr to be on the same level as Thomas Brady. Because Adams isn't moving the needle like a Moss or T.O. He certainly isn't as good as Justin Jefferson and arguably worse than Kupp.

Carr does better than Trubisky, but no team is foolish enough to think they are getting a dynamic player. Thus, he's relegated to the same role, a placeholder.

I mean, Peter King very diplomatically mentions Carr was missing open guys in the Pittsburgh game.

What in the f*** is this?