Prospect Info: Dawson Mercer (#18 pick - 2020 draft)

[glenwo2]

Nobody is playing draft revisionist, simply assessing the picks to date. You would be stupid not to.

For some reason, my asking you who you would've preferred to draft instead of Holtz, may have given the wrong impression to Call Me Al.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

For some reason, my asking you who you would've preferred to draft instead of Holtz, may have given the wrong impression to Call Me Al.

I think so, those were my pre-draft thoughts. They had nothing to do with what has happened since.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I loved this pick when we made it, I love this pick now, and I'll love this pick when he steps into Zajac's role in a couple years.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think so, those were my pre-draft thoughts. They had nothing to do with what has happened since.

And considering poor Cole Perfetti is sitting around staring into space, or training or whatever, but still not playing, it’s hard to judge him on anything post-draft. And no, I don’t think seven tournament games on a loaded Canadian team is much to go by.

There’s context that can be debated but people are not required to be enthused about all our prospects. Their feelings don’t effect the prospects’ future, you can’t jinx them. (I’m not including people going on social media and publicly going after them, which is obviously different.)

I don’t know about Mercer making the team next year but he’ll be done with juniors due to his birthday IIRC so it’s the AHL if not the big club. No more weirdo Olympic-sized home ice after the tail end of this season (after his team’s COVID break is over).

 

[Emperoreddy]

And considering poor Cole Perfetti is sitting around staring into space, or training or whatever, but still not playing, it’s hard to judge him on anything post-draft. And no, I don’t think seven tournament games on a loaded Canadian team is much to go by.

There’s context that can be debated but people are not required to be enthused about all our prospects. Their feelings don’t effect the prospects’ future, you can’t jinx them. (I’m not including people going on social media and publicly going after them, which is obviously different.)

I don’t know about Mercer making the team next year but he’ll be done with juniors due to his birthday IIRC so it’s the AHL if not the big club. No more weirdo Olympic-sized home ice after the tail end of this season (after his team’s COVID break is over).

Not really the year to try "I told you so" with prospects. Everything is all screwy.

Perfetti is losing a year. Rossi is losing a year and who knows if he has lingering effects long term going forward.

Raymond isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either.

Weird season.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not really the year to try "I told you so" with prospects. Everything is all screwy.

Perfetti is losing a year. Rossi is losing a year and who knows if he has lingering effects long term going forward.

Raymond isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either.

Weird season.

Yeah, it's tough to judge your draft picks in a draft+1 season when there is no draft+1 season.

I will say that I continue to be extremely high on the Dawson Mercer pick. I feel he was a top 3 forward for Team Canada in the WJC despite playing a 4th line role with no PP time, which is kind of unbelievable if you think about it. Of course I wish I got to see Mercer play more this year, but these things are obviously out of our control. Mercer continues to be my #1 ranked prospect for the Devils and I would not be surprised if he made a strong challenge for a role in New Jersey as soon as next season.

 

[RyGuy]

Yeah, it's tough to judge your draft picks in a draft+1 season when there is no draft+1 season.

I will say that I continue to be extremely high on the Dawson Mercer pick. I feel he was a top 3 forward for Team Canada in the WJC despite playing a 4th line role with no PP time, which is kind of unbelievable if you think about it. Of course I wish I got to see Mercer play more this year, but these things are obviously out of our control. Mercer continues to be my #1 ranked prospect for the Devils and I would not be surprised if he made a strong challenge for a role in New Jersey as soon as next season.

You have him over Holtz for our #1 prospect?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I’d like to see how his underlying numbers look — anyone can have an unlucky 9 games. Obviously at this level you want production, but at the NHL level he seems like a guy that will make a lot of contributions that don’t show up on the stat sheet.

 

[Guttersniped]

Honestly, I think we're a little on edge with our forward prospects right now. Seeing Holtz stall out a bit in the Swedish league, Mercer with low scoring numbers in the Q, and Thompson with low scoring numbers until his latest game, those are our top 3 forward prospects aside from Foote who isn't playing.

I get it, it's frustrating to see what Lundell and Jarvis are doing, but other '20s have had slow starts too. Amirov barely has more points than Muk despite playing on the same team, and Raymond isn't scoring a ton either. But I think we just need to let it play out. Even teenagers run hot and cool, or have a bad year. Doesn't change who they are as a player.

I don’t even remember anyone on the board expressing interest in Lundell. Jarvis was mentioned but that was more when we had hopes of the Arizona pick being much better and getting Jarvis with that after grabbing a defenseman with the 7th pick. (Oh, the dreams we had.)

Is the idea that Holtz has to outperform
every single player drafted after him from now on? Not just the top guys who dropped, Rossi or Perfetti, but every single dude? I don’t know how people enjoy things with a mindset seemingly designed to making them unhappier over nothing.

Why does Anton Lundell’s future even matter? We weren’t going to pick him 7th. I and others wanted Jarvis but didn’t have the pick for him, we weren’t going draft him at 7th either. Maybe if Shero hadn’t traded away the 37th and 68th pick away we could have somehow traded up to grab him but he did so there wasn’t a way we could.

I’m agreeing with you btw, just in case that’s not clear. lol. I’m just annoyed by the mentality. It’s just complaining for complaining sakes.

 

[Devils731]

PROSPECT WATCH: Mercer Coping with the Unusual

Speak of the Devil.

 

[ninetyeight]

I don’t even remember anyone on the board expressing interest in Lundell. Jarvis was mentioned

Lundell was discussed plenty of times. There were even some arguments about it. I was arguing that he was getting overlooked for being finnish (similar to how nobody in this sub had Heiskanen in their top10 in his draft). Less exposure to his play, history of finnish players sucking in devils uniforms, bad taste from all the Laine and Kakko fans. Some media guy even had Lundell at #5 and he got laughed at here.

I think Jarvis was always pretty popular pick at about #15ish give or take.

I'm very happy with our picks though and I wouldn't draw major conclusions from a small sample size playing in another league. Things can change so quick, lets wait until we at least get them to AHL.

 

[Azathoth]

I don't think Holtz will necessarily look better than some of the guys that were also in the discussion at #6. But if he can become that 1st line winger that we can drop next to Hughes and put up 30+ goals *cough Palmieri where are you cough* I'd still consider it a win for the team moving forward.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't think Holtz will necessarily look better than some of the guys that were also in the discussion at #6. But if he can become that 1st line winger that we can drop next to Hughes and put up 30+ goals *cough Palmieri where are you cough* I'd still consider it a win for the team moving forward.

Don't think this is even close to a given when a bunch of those other guys are spending their draft +1 year sitting at home.

 

[Guttersniped]

Lundell was discussed plenty of times. There were even some arguments about it. I was arguing that he was getting overlooked for being finnish (similar to how nobody in this sub had Heiskanen in their top10 in his draft). Less exposure to his play, history of finnish players sucking in devils uniforms, bad taste from all the Laine and Kakko fans. Some media guy even had Lundell at #5 and he got laughed at here.

I think Jarvis was always pretty popular pick at about #15ish give or take.

I'm very happy with our picks though and I wouldn't draw major conclusions from a small sample size playing in another league. Things can change so quick, lets wait until we at least get them to AHL.

We actually had polls about who people wanted with the 7th pick. Lundell didn’t get a vote until the last two polls where he got one vote each time. Jarvis won the 8th (and last) poll.

Here’s the poll results:
1. Jamie Drysdale
2. Jake Sanderson
3. Marco Rossi
4. Lucas Raymond
5. Cole Perfetti
6. Alexander Holtz
7. Jack Quinn
8. Seth Jarvis

Lundell went 12th and Jarvis was 13th in draft, they’re excellent and desirable prospects. I wasn’t talking about general opinions of prospects though, I was only talking in terms of Devils fans and the most discussed candidates for the 7th pick.

 

[ninetyeight]

We actually had polls about who people wanted with the 7th pick. Lundell didn’t get a vote until the last two polls where he got one vote each time.

Yeah I guess that was my point also that the overwhelming majority here wanted nothing to do with Lundell. But he was still discussed among few. Very few people here actually watched these prospects and the rest kinda just went with based on other posters, media and stats. Lundell is actually a very good example of not to get too hung up on stats. As long as Holtz and Mercer are doing the right things there's no reason to panic.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

We just need to chill. These guys will be fine. There will be players we will say we should have picked in retrospect and there will be players we will be happy we avoided. But that is years away.

 

[BurntToast]

1) Like others have said it’s better to have played than not at all. (This is Law)

Example: Lundell, Holtz, Raymond were in the top 5 Oct 2019 but fell due to lack of playing time (as a result: production). How many Russians fly under the radar because of lack of exposure?

2) Covid-19 has caused some screwball situations.

Prospects had more time off this summer but probably lacked the many benefits professional have (Personal trainer, gym access, nutritionist).

The prospects also have crazy scheduling, to include constantly going in and out of Quarantine Protocols. Mercer and Holtz have been effected by this situation. Causing additional issues trying to get into rhythm.

Lastly: 5 prospects get Covid-19 and all 5 are effected differently. I am deeply concerned about Rossi, and wish him good fortunes. If you see sluggishness, sloppiness, low production keep it in perspective.

 

[Woncka]

I don't think Holtz will necessarily look better than some of the guys that were also in the discussion at #6. But if he can become that 1st line winger that we can drop next to Hughes and put up 30+ goals *cough Palmieri where are you cough* I'd still consider it a win for the team moving forward.

Id like consistent 35-40 goal potential from a 7th overall sniper when we have two young franchise centers
But I agree he may be a specialist and a bif fit for us but not necessarily better than one or two guys behind him. Thats how deep this draft was.

id be satisfied if you told me, during prime contending years, Holtz puts up 40 goals and 30+ assists.

 

[My3Sons]

Id like consistent 35-40 goal potential from a 7th overall sniper when we have two young franchise centers
But I agree he may be a specialist and a bif fit for us but not necessarily better than one or two guys behind him. Thats how deep this draft was.

id be satisfied if you told me, during prime contending years, Holtz puts up 40 goals and 30+ assists.

If Holtz can achieve anything close to what you project that’s a great result. I’d take that any day.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You have him over Holtz for our #1 prospect?

Yeah, it's really close though. I feel Holtz will score more goals while being a very good all-around player. But I think Mercer has the possibility of being a Mark Stone-like player who impacts every aspect of the game. Everyone talks about Mercer's compete level and all-around play and sky-high hockey IQ -- with good reason -- but all this talk really seems to obscure the fact that Mercer is actually incredibly skilled. He's got an insanely good set of hands and he's an all-purpose offensive threat, with impressive ability in the passing and shooting departments.

I would not argue too hard with someone who ranked Holtz as the Devils #1 prospect, if only because he has 40+ goal ability, and this is certainly a rare and valuable commodity. But my personal opinion is that Mercer is at the very least a can't-miss, two-way, all-situations second-line stud; and he possesses an underrated upside which, to me, is in the Mark Stone stratosphere.

If I had to rank the Devils top 5 prospects right now (graduating all current Devils regulars like Smith etc), it would be:

1 Mercer
2 Holtz
3 Foote
4 Bahl
5 Mukhamadullin

 

[Woncka]

If Holtz can achieve anything close to what you project that’s a great result. I’d take that any day.

Maybe I expect too much, 40g scorers dont grow on trees. However if hes a 35 goal guy then he should have some 40+ years, likely in tune with our contention chances.

id love for him to be a Laine for us. Heavy shot with some nice passing

 

[glenwo2]

Maybe I expect too much, 40g scorers dont grow on trees. However if hes a 35 goal guy then he should have some 40+ years, likely in tune with our contention chances.

id love for him to be a Laine for us. Heavy shot with some nice passing

Hopefully he plays a little bit of defense, though.

 

[My3Sons]

Yeah, it's really close though. I feel Holtz will score more goals while being a very good all-around player. But I think Mercer has the possibility of being a Mark Stone-like player who impacts every aspect of the game. Everyone talks about Mercer's compete level and all-around play and sky-high hockey IQ -- with good reason -- but all this talk really seems to obscure the fact that Mercer is actually incredibly skilled. He's got an insanely good set of hands and he's an all-purpose offensive threat, with impressive ability in the passing and shooting departments.

I would not argue too hard with someone who ranked Holtz as the Devils #1 prospect, if only because he has 40+ goal ability, and this is certainly a rare and valuable commodity. But my personal opinion is that Mercer is at the very least a can't-miss, two-way, all-situations second-line stud; and he possesses an underrated upside which, to me, is in the Mark Stone stratosphere.

If I had to rank the Devils top 5 prospects right now (graduating all current Devils regulars like Smith etc), it would be:

1 Mercer
2 Holtz
3 Foote
4 Bahl
5 Mukhamadullin

Guadiana disagreed with me stylistically because he didn’t see Holtz as a fit with Hughes but I just see Mercer and Nico as a combo that wins their matchups every game if not every shift. They seem like they’d work well together and draw penalties and score more than the opposition.

 

[Woncka]

Hopefully he plays a little bit of defense, though.

I think his overall compete and effort is higher than Laine (since I named him), however Laine's shot is likely better

Holtz should be a consistent 35+ guy for us. I probably should never have included 40, it puts too much expectation. 35 is at least only five above Palmieri-level scorers.

 

[Woncka]

I just realized this is Mercer's thread. I didnt mean to post in the wrong one

Mercer excites me as a prospect. Consistently labeled as the hardest worker on his teams and has hands of a wizard (if that makes any f***ing sense lmao)