Player Discussion Darnell Nurse

[booyakasha]

Hopefully his deal comes in at $8 million or less.

This kid has improved every off season, and continues to work every off season to improve....he comes from a strong sports family, and continuously pushes himself to be better.
They never should've been bridging him to begin with. should've locked him up just like Drai and Connor...he is of the same pedigree.
he isn't a finished product yet.

 

[Oilhawks]

For clarity I will repeat.

When was the last time the Oilers signed elite level player, which is what Nurse is currently playing at, with UFA status?

I'm too lazy to go look but I'm coming up empty for ANY UFAs of note resigning with the Oilers...

Is what it is.

I'm pretty sure that Holland would have gone with the long-term ('overpayment') that offseason and bit the bullet to clear cap if the Nurse bridge meant that he was going to walk no matter what.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

This kid has improved every off season, and continues to work every off season to improve....he comes from a strong sports family, and continuously pushes himself to be better.
They never should've been bridging him to begin with. should've locked him up just like Drai and Connor...he is of the same pedigree.
he isn't a finished product yet.

They didn't have the cap space to do anything but bridge him.

 

[redgrant]

This kid has improved every off season, and continues to work every off season to improve....he comes from a strong sports family, and continuously pushes himself to be better.
They never should've been bridging him to begin with. should've locked him up just like Drai and Connor...he is of the same pedigree.
he isn't a finished product yet.

It's easy in hindsight to say they shouldn't bridge him. This didn't work out and bears bridge did.

This was the safest thing to do while we are in seriously cap trouble for the next 2 years.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It's easy in hindsight to say they shouldn't bridge him. This didn't work out and bears bridge did.

This was the safest thing to do while we are in seriously cap trouble for the next 2 years.

Even last year there were people calling his bridge "overpaid", while people were calling Bear's deal in the off-season a steal and wanting to sign him to a klefbom-esque contract.

 

[walktheboulavard]

They didn't have the cap space to do anything but bridge him.

Wasn't there talk of signing Nurse to the Morrisey deal, $6.25 mill over 8 year contract during his first bridge deal?

Basically the handling of the Nurse contract was irresponsible and the organization shouldn't have challenged his value (top 4 corner stone guy at the time). When they missed out on the Morrisey contract half way through the season he realized his worth and his camp demanded more which led to another bridge contract.

I recall some posters and fans didn't think he was worth the Morrisey contract at the time too lol.

 

[McTonyBrar]

That guy hasn't assessed anyone accurately since I've been on this forum.

Terrible eye.

Reinhart

 

[Eradic Dvorak]

Nurse is gonna be given a good raise. Probably 7.5 million per.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

We're going to be up at the cap, but retaining these top players if a big deal. Nurse is working his way onto Team Canada at the moment.

 

[Little Fury]

If his season keeps building and ends with a decent playoff run and next season starts even better expect his next deal to begin with a 9.

Yikes.

 

[Aerchon]

It's easy in hindsight to say they shouldn't bridge him. This didn't work out and bears bridge did.

This was the safest thing to do while we are in seriously cap trouble for the next 2 years.

Wasn't there talk of signing Nurse to the Morrisey deal, $6.25 mill over 8 year contract during his first bridge deal?

Basically the handling of the Nurse contract was irresponsible and the organization shouldn't have challenged his value (top 4 corner stone guy at the time). When they missed out on the Morrisey contract half way through the season he realized his worth and his camp demanded more which led to another bridge contract.

I recall some posters and fans didn't think he was worth the Morrisey contract at the time too lol.

I think the vast majority wanted the Morrisey deal but it was my understanding Nurse wanted considerably more than that.

That was the rumor and also what the math suggests. There is no way Holland negotiates a super high bridge deal that walks Nurse into UFA status when he could/should have signed Nurse long term for only a bit more than he is currently making. We easily had the cap space to afford a Morrisey long term type deal.

The "smoke" for lack of a better term heavily suggest Holland f***ed up big time with Nurse and will either be forced to pay him big big big bucks or let him walk and by let him I mean Nurse may not decide to stay with the Oilers no matter how many trucks of money they back up to his house.

 

[walktheboulavard]

I think the vast majority wanted the Morrisey deal but it was my understanding Nurse wanted considerably more than that.

That was the rumor and also what the math suggests. There is no way Holland negotiates a super high bridge deal that walks Nurse into UFA status when he could/should have signed Nurse long term for only a bit more than he is currently making. We easily had the cap space to afford a Morrisey long term type deal.

The "smoke" for lack of a better term heavily suggest Holland f***ed up big time with Nurse and will either be forced to pay him big big big bucks or let him walk and by let him I mean Nurse may not decide to stay with the Oilers no matter how many trucks of money they back up to his house.

You might be right. He did want a bit more, but not by much. I think at the time the comps were Morrisey and Trouba. He wasn't getting the Trouba deal as New York egregiously overpaid him, and looking at that contract now it resembles something you would see in a horror movie.

At the time I think Morrissey was considered the better player with a higher ceiling by most fans and some nhl insiders. And I think Burke was even on record saying he should take the deal if it was offered to him. Either way I think Holland should have just bit the bullet and offered him the 7 mill, because now we know those 2 previous comps aren't even in his stratosphere and a Norris candidate will demand a big pay day. There's nothing to suggest that Nurse feels slighted by all of this though.

 

[McDNicks17]

Morrisey wasn't really a comparable. They were playing vastly different roles. He signed his big extension before the 2019/20 season. He spent the last half of the season prior playing about 15 minutes of 5v5 on the Jets third pairing.

Nurse would have been signing his while playing the third most 5v5 minutes in the entire league(behind Doughty and Suter) in the two years prior.

 

[Broberg Speed]

You might be right. He did want a bit more, but not by much. I think at the time the comps were Morrisey and Trouba. He wasn't getting the Trouba deal as New York egregiously overpaid him, and looking at that contract now it resembles something you would see in a horror movie.

At the time I think Morrissey was considered the better player with a higher ceiling by most fans and some nhl insiders. And I think Burke was even on record saying he should take the deal if it was offered to him. Either way I think Holland should have just bit the bullet and offered him the 7 mill, because now we know those 2 previous comps aren't even in his stratosphere and a Norris candidate will demand a big pay day. There's nothing to suggest that Nurse feels slighted by all of this though.

No. Burke said the Nurse deal should be a bridge and it needed to start with a 5 and the contract that Nurse accepted was a bridge and did start with a 5.

 

[walktheboulavard]

No. Burke said the Nurse deal should be a bridge and it needed to start with a 5 and the contract that Nurse accepted was a bridge and did start with a 5.

He said on Oilers Now that if Nurse got the same deal as Morrisey he should take it and run. David Staples even wrote up his usual reactionary article on that segment.

Besides, what he would offer and what he perceives Nurse should take, if it was offered are not mutually exclusive. He could have said both things in that segment.

 

[Broberg Speed]

He said on Oilers Now that if Nurse got the same deal as Morrisey he should take it and run. David Staples even wrote up his usual reactionary article on that segment.

Besides, what he would offer and what he perceives Nurse should take, if it was offered are not mutually exclusive. He could have said both things in that segment.

I recall distinctly Burke saying what I just stated, he said: "it needs to start with a 5"

It wouldn't surprise me, all that much, if Burke said something completely different on the topic of a Nurse contract during some interview. If you can dig up your source I would be interested to see it.

 

[walktheboulavard]

I recall distinctly Burke saying what I just stated, he said: "it needs to start with a 5"

It wouldn't surprise me, all that much, if Burke said something completely different on the topic of a Nurse contract during some interview. If you can dig up your source I would be interested to see it.

NHL insider says if Darnell Nurse can get Josh Morrissey money "he should take it and run to the bank" | Edmonton Journal

Either way it's clear Nurse wasn't considered to be as good as the comps I mentioned in previous post. I've been bullish on him from the beginning and didn't believe that to be true but even I am pleasantly surprised at the player his turned into.

 

[Broberg Speed]

NHL insider says if Darnell Nurse can get Josh Morrissey money "he should take it and run to the bank" | Edmonton Journal

Either way it's clear Nurse wasn't considered to be as good as the comps I mentioned in previous post. I've been bullish on him from the beginning and didn't believe that to be true but even I am pleasantly surprised at the player his turned into.

Thanks for posting it makes an interesting read.

 

[Giggleplex]

NHL insider says if Darnell Nurse can get Josh Morrissey money "he should take it and run to the bank" | Edmonton Journal

Either way it's clear Nurse wasn't considered to be as good as the comps I mentioned in previous post. I've been bullish on him from the beginning and didn't believe that to be true but even I am pleasantly surprised at the player his turned into.

That article is from 2019. Nurse is a lot better now in all aspects of his game.

Edit: I should've read the previous posts first

 

[McCombo]

Doesn't Nurse have 1 more year left? The Oilers can see if he can repeat this season next year.

He has and that is a blessing.

His shooting percentages 5on5
16-17 6.17%
17-18 2.87%
18-19 5.06%
19-20 2.70%
20-21 12.33%

I would be willing bet anything that he can't sustain over 12 sh%. He has been good, but he isn't the one driving the play. Need to keep him for sure, but luckily this isn't the year Holland needs to negotiate a new contract.

 

[McCombo]

If his season keeps building and ends with a decent playoff run and next season starts even better expect his next deal to begin with a 9.

There is no way he deserves over 9 mil. That is Hedman/Josi money and you can't compare Nurse to them.

There is no way he sustains this scoring rate(he is shooting WAY above his career sh%). He isn't elite. Low-end #1 or really good #2.

Jared Spurgeon just signed a new 7yr contract at 7,575mil. That should be closer to what Nurse deserves.

 

[walktheboulavard]

There is no way he deserves over 9 mil. There is no way he sustains this scoring rate. He isn't elite. Low-end #1 or really good #2.

There's nothing to suggest he's low end #1 this year. And aren't even McDavids possession numbers better with Nurse than without?

Keep sleeping on the wheel and that AAV keeps going up.

 

[McCombo]

There's nothing to suggest he's low end #1 this year. And aren't even McDavids possession numbers better with Nurse than without?

Keep sleeping on the wheel and that AAV keeps going up.

Actually there is. Without McDavid on the ice he gets out-shot, out-chanced very badly.

Corsi for% 46.26
Fenwick for% 44.82
Expected goals for% 42.10
Scoring chances for% 45.90
High danger corsi for% 44.74

So he isn't able to drive the play. He is one of the best defensemen in Oilers so it is no wonder that McDavid has better numbers with Nurse than rest of the guys combined.

I will happily keep sleeping until his over 12% sh% regresses to normal.

Edit. ~30 game sample size, riding hot streak/puck luck (sh%) and is benefiting a lot by playing lots with best player in the planet. Very short-sighted to think that this is new level of play. Combined with the fact that without McDavid he is getting caved in own zone.

 

[walktheboulavard]

Actually there is. Without McDavid on the ice he gets out-shot, out-chanced very badly.

Corsi for% 46.26
Fenwick for% 44.82
Expected goals for% 42.10
Scoring chances for% 45.90
High danger corsi for% 44.74

So he isn't able to drive the play. He is one of the best defensemen in Oilers so it is no wonder that McDavid has better numbers with Nurse than rest of the guys combined.

I will happily keep sleeping until his over 12% sh% regresses to normal.

Edit. ~30 game sample size, riding hot streak/puck luck (sh%) and is benefiting a lot by playing lots with best player in the planet. Very short-sighted to think that this is new level of play. Combined with the fact that without McDavid he is getting caved in own zone.

Yeah those numbers aren't the greatest. But it's no surprise skill players perform better with skill players. Even McDavids numbers take a hit without Nurse, albeit not as much.

Tbh, He's always been decent goal scorer from the back end and improves year to year. Just by the eye test you can tell he's worked on his shot and mechanics; that Winnipeg goal were he changed the angle and picked a corner being a good example. His offensive reads and improvement on his shot look like a repeatable skill to me and he could very well continue to put up good goal totals.

 

[McCombo]

Yeah those numbers aren't the greatest. But it's no surprise skill players perform better with skill players. Even McDavids numbers take a hit without Nurse, albeit not as much.

Tbh, He's always been decent goal scorer from the back end and improves year to year. Just by the eye test you can tell he's worked on his shot and mechanics; that Winnipeg goal were he changed the angle and picked a corner being a good example. His offensive reads and improvement on his shot look like a repeatable skill to me and he could very well continue to put up good goal totals.

Even if he has worked on his shot, defenseman can't shoot at 12.33% 5on5 for long periods of time. 2019-2020 regular season highest sh% from defenseman that played over 1000 mins (99 Dmen) 5on5 was 9.21. 10th highest was 6.67. 50th had 4.00.

And I don't put the blame only Nurse for those ugly numbers without McDavid, because the bottom6 posts that kind of numbers across the board. But he can't inflate those numbers and I think that elite players are always able to make players around them better. If you pay someone 9mil and he can't dominate the game without McDavid, he simply doens't deserve the 9mil.

Nurse&Draisaitl without McDavid post numbers in 49-50 range.
Nurse&RNH without McDavid post numbers in 43-30 range (really small sample size though)

McDavid&Bear without Nurse post numbers in 60-80 range (xG% 76, high danger cf% 83.33. But again a really small sample size and there is no way they could keep that rate up.)
McDavid&Jones without Nurse post numbers in 55-60 range.

It is pretty clear that McDavid doens't need Nurse to be best player in the world. But Nurse needs McDavid to have elite numbers.

Edit. I don't know if you saw my post a were a pointed out his shooting percentages. Before this year he had scored 25 goals even strentgh in 350 games. Now he has 10 in 34. Career sh% is 4.6 and is rocking now 12 this year. No way in million years that is repeatable.