Daily draft position watch

[Majorityof1]

Current pick by Point % - 14th
Current pick by points - Tied for 13 with 2 other teams
Points out of playoff - 5 (1 less game)

Best pick if we win 0 and all other teams win point % - 5th
We win 0, they win p% -10% - 8th
We win 0, they win p% -20% - Tied 9th
We win 0, they win p% +10% - Tied 4th
We win 0, they win p% +20% - 4th

Magic # for 10th OA (# of points we can win + Pit (current 10th) can lose before they can't pass us) - 27
*This does not guarantee us 10th as other teams above us could lose more.

Magic # for 2nd WC (Vegas) - 27

 

[TK 421]

We need to play some games without a goalie to prevent these damn players from sandbagging our tank with wins. Who the hell do these guys think they are anyway? We need to be drafting 10th not f***ing 15th-18th. What am I supposed to do all summer if we're picking 16th? I'm going to be pissed and will probably require therapy. Meanwhile the players are over there just not caring that we got this one kid instead of that other kid. Can you believe that?

 

[Majorityof1]

We need to play some games without a goalie to prevent these damn players from sandbagging our tank with wins. Who the hell do these guys think they are anyway? We need to be drafting 10th not f***ing 15th-18th. What am I supposed to do all summer if we're picking 16th? I'm going to be pissed and will probably require therapy. Meanwhile the players are over there just not caring that we got this one kid instead of that other kid. Can you believe that?

Wow, that seems a little intense. Oh wait, you are being sarcastic, you wiley fox. I get it. That totally sounds like....um....someone, I'm sure.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

No help on the draft position today.
Isles lose and now they’re in the mix. The lottery hopefuls field is getting crowded.
NJ gives us a double whammy, losing when we need them to win and giving two points to the one team we have a prayer of catching for WC2.
The Pens finally win but it’s against the free falling Wings so no help there.
Caps v Flames and Kraken v Sabres tomorrow. Two ot games would be good.

 

[PocketNines]

the blues are drafting 16th. hopefully they can get a Guhle there

 

[Linkens Mastery]

the blues are drafting 16th. hopefully they can get a Guhle there

At 16th MBN, Jiricek, and Iginla look nice. Tho, I don't think Iginla makes it past Calgary.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

the blues are drafting 16th. hopefully they can get a Guhle there

I like Blanick’s idea of trying to package our picks to move up to one of the 5-8 spots. Would have to find a willing trading partner who wouldn’t ask for the moon though.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

the blues are drafting 16th. hopefully they can get a Guhle there

16th or 17th at the rate they're going.

 

[PocketNines]

I like Blanick’s idea of trying to package our picks to move up to one of the 5-8 spots. Would have to find a willing trading partner who wouldn’t ask for the moon though.

Trading up that high in the draft doesn't seem to happen much any more

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I like Blanick’s idea of trying to package our picks to move up to one of the 5-8 spots. Would have to find a willing trading partner who wouldn’t ask for the moon though.

My guess: to go from 16-17 into the 5-8 spot is going to take more draft pick capital than we've got [because we're not trading our '25 1st here] and it will either require a roster player [see below] + our 2nd or one of the hot forward prospects + our 1st + our 2nd. This is obviously not perfect, but at a really quick glance:

* Arizona went from 27 to 11 in 2022 and it cost picks at 34 and 45.
* Detroit went from 21 to 14 in 2021 and it cost picks at 47 and 137.
* Buffalo went from 21 to 14 in 2012, and it cost a pick at 42.

Going from 16-17 to 5-8 is going to cost more than what Detroit and Buffalo paid, because that dropoff from 5-8 to 16-17 is significant. Picks at mid-40s and 54ish aren't going to do it. I don't see us throwing our '25 2nd in as well, or someone else going "quantity over quality." Anything else where someone jumped up kind of like that involved guys on the roster and maybe a pick, too. I don't know that this is where Buchnevich goes, and I don't see anyone else that we'd want to move who doesn't have a NTC doing the trick.

 

[bleedblue1223]

My guess: to go from 16-17 into the 5-8 spot is going to take more draft pick capital than we've got [because we're not trading our '25 1st here] and it will either require a roster player [see below] + our 2nd or one of the hot forward prospects + our 1st + our 2nd. This is obviously not perfect, but at a really quick glance:

* Arizona went from 27 to 11 in 2022 and it cost picks at 34 and 45.
* Detroit went from 21 to 14 in 2021 and it cost picks at 47 and 137.
* Buffalo went from 21 to 14 in 2012, and it cost a pick at 42.

Going from 16-17 to 5-8 is going to cost more than what Detroit and Buffalo paid, because that dropoff from 5-8 to 16-17 is significant. Picks at mid-40s and 54ish aren't going to do it. I don't see us throwing our '25 2nd in as well, or someone else going "quantity over quality." Anything else where someone jumped up kind of like that involved guys on the roster and maybe a pick, too. I don't know that this is where Buchnevich goes, and I don't see anyone else that we'd want to move who doesn't have a NTC doing the trick.

Yep. Trading up to the level where the drop off starts tends to be pretty expensive and trades become a lot less common. That feels about 8ish this year.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Wings get two points at the expense of the Sabres so kind of a push.
Devils and Pens lose.
Flames win and Blues at least stick the Wild with a loser point.
Caps win, Kraken lose.
With the win, we’re four points behind the Knights. I’m not even going to say the P word.

I will. I don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but sneaking into the WC when the fans are marking the first round pick is a pretty Bluesy thing to do.

I’d really enjoy the handwringing in Vegas, but they’d probably just win the lottery then.

 

[TheDizee]

The Blues are not making the playoffs. But they are also not getting a top 10 pick.

The worst of both hells.

 

[oPlaiD]

I will. I don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but sneaking into the WC when the fans are marking the first round pick is a pretty Bluesy thing to do.

I’d really enjoy the handwringing in Vegas, but they’d probably just win the lottery then.

Hey, Vegas is tied with the Kings. It's quite possible us and VGK both make the playoffs.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Hey, Vegas is tied with the Kings. It's quite possible us and VGK both make the playoffs.

Don't you spoil my fun.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

If we continue to get our shit together, Vegas and Los Angeles could be playing for 1 playoff spot. As things stand right now:

* They're tied on points at 79
* Los Angeles leads the 1st tiebreak (regulation wins) 29-28
* They're tied on regulation or overtime wins at 32
* Vegas leads on total wins 36-34

It's really unlikely, though not impossible, that they end up tied on those 4 - but if it happened, Vegas would win the head-to-head tiebreak.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

NJ losing to Vegas was a total bummer yesterday. They had a one goal lead early in the third and couldn't hold off the onslaught.

That team is going nowhere unless Fitz ponies up for some goaltending, even though Jake Allen has looked good there so far, the clock always strikes midnight and he turns back into a pumpkin.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Caps roll past the Flames and the Sabres have a comfortable lead on the Kraken in the 3rd. Both games a push since winners and losers are all in the lottery group and there’s no ot points.

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues are not making the playoffs. But they are also not getting a top 10 pick.

The worst of both hells.

Yup. Hopefully they can hit on the #15 pick.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

In the early games, Isles lose.
Devils over the Pens. That’s a push.
Wings win.

In the late games, Wild win.
Sabres lose.

Blues sitting in the 14 spot currently.

Some of the worst bubble teams (Pens/Devils) are starting to get out of our reach.

Caps and Wild both looking for wins tomorrow.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Caps lose the early game.
Minnesota down 6-0 after two. Safe to say no points for them tonight. Good news if you’re team playoffs, bad news if you’re team tank.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Looking more and more likely were gonna finish in the 12-16 range.

 

[sfvega]

Looking more and more likely were gonna finish in the 12-16 range.

The Bermuda Triangle of bad. Not contenders, not salivating over the guy we're gonna get in the top 10.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Wings beat the Isles. Push.
Devils win but at this point they’re probably too far below us to matter. The Kraken could do us a solid by beating the Knights but they’re down one after one. At this point we have to hope for late season heroics to save us from the worst possible outcome, missing the playoffs by a point or two and finishing 16th.

 

[Blueston]

Wings beat the Isles. Push.
Devils win but at this point they’re probably too far below us to matter. The Kraken could do us a solid by beating the Knights but they’re down one after one. At this point we have to hope for late season heroics to save us from the worst possible outcome, missing the playoffs by a point or two and finishing 16th.

if we are playing kids and fighting for playoff spot, that seems like great outcome to me. Even if we fall short.