Daily draft position watch

[mk80]

Sitting in the 16 spot at the end of the day. Ten games left for that to get better.

Here's hoping.

Edit: Cheering for OT in the Caps and Wings game tomorrow night

 

[PocketNines]

They are going to pick 16 but it's like picking 15 if Montreal is above them which they will be

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Here's hoping.

Edit: Cheering for OT in the Caps and Wings game tomorrow night

Got your wish!

 

[Mike Liut]

Looking like 16 unfortunately

 

[Blueston]

Looking like 16 unfortunately

still hoping for 17. or later!

 

[Hrkac Circus]

still hoping for 17. or later!

It would be a late-season miracle at this point. LA lost so we’re 5 points behind. I think they have a game in hand.

 

[Blueston]

It would be a late-season miracle at this point. LA lost so we’re 5 points behind. I think they have a game in hand.

i didn't mean to suggest it was likely!

 

[GoldenSeal]

We'd have to win out and someone go on a losing streak to get a shot. Could happen but it's not realistic. If these boys are going to get hot, now's the time. Even then, well... crazier s*it has happened so all I'm gunna say is: I Believe. Because, well... why the hell not?

 

[BlueDream]

Whatever about our draft position. If this is the last season we miss the playoffs and start making them again next season, I’ll be fine with that.

 

[Brian39]

We'd have to win out and someone go on a losing streak to get a shot. Could happen but it's not realistic. If these boys are going to get hot, now's the time. Even then, well... crazier s*it has happened so all I'm gunna say is: I Believe. Because, well... why the hell not?

I mean, they already got hot a couple weeks ago. They are 7-1-1 in the last 9 games. A decent chunk of mediocre-to-bad teams in that stretch, but you can't be much hotter than 15 of a possible 18 points. Pretty much need to do that again in the next 9 to have any hope of the playoffs though.

I wouldn't say it is impossible.

4 of the final 9 are against the clear worst 3 teams in the NHL (San Jose twice, Chicago, and Anaheim) and we also get a Seattle team that isn't very good and is 11-14-4 since 1/15/24. Those games are all essentially must-wins for a team at our stage of the season. Bank 8+ points in those games and you give yourself a chance to earn enough points if you can have a good showing in the other 4 games (Edmonton, Nashville, Carolina, and Dallas).

We play Edmonton and Nashville next week and you have to pick up 2+ points between those two games. Then you pray that you catch Carolina and Dallas at the right time.

Carolina is 3 points back of the Rangers and the Rangers have a game in hand. They are also 17 points up on Philly, so they will not be falling below 2nd in the Metro. We play them at home in their 80th game of the season a night after the Rangers play their 80th game. You have to hope that the Rangers outpace them enough in the next couple weeks that our game becomes a bit meaningless to them.

You have to hope that Dallas rests guys on that last game of the season. The NHL moved the playoff start date to 4/20/24 and our game against Dallas is 4/17. Colorado, Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Edmonton all play 4/18, so you have to think that the league will schedule Dallas as one of the opening night playoff games. If we are still at all alive, you have to hope that they sit a few key guys to avoid injury.

There is a path to a 14+ point final 9 game stretch if we can take care of business against the basement dwellers and catch Carolina/Dallas looking ahead toward playoffs. No guarantee that 14-16 points is enough to actually make the playoffs and there is essentially no margin for error. We're pretty much out of games where we can be flat and we need a team that is genuinely better than us to go NHL .500, which is far from a sure thing.

Edit: I know we are further behind Nashville than LA/Vegas, but it would be great if they had a bit of a letdown no that their streak is finally over. It's not terribly uncommon to hit a bump after a streak like that ends and their next to games are at Colorado and then home against Boston. Then they host us. That could be a fun one if they are suddenly on a 3 game losing streak and we are still hot.

 

[Majorityof1]

Here are the magic #s for all the teams we could feasibly catch above and below us. The magic number is the number of points the trailing team has to drop (lose) and the higher ranked team has to gain (win) before it is impossible for the trailing team to pass the other team. I am going to ignore ties. This number guarantees the lower team is out.

#3Cen Jets - 5 points
#2Pac Oilers- 5 points
#3Pac Vegas - 9 points
WC#1 Predators - 9 points
WC#2 La K- 12 points

----------Playoff cut-off ---------

Blues
15th Red Wings - 15 points
14th Wild - 16 points
13th Islanders - 14 points
12th Devils - 11 points
11th Pittsburgh - 12 points
10th Buffalo - 8 points
9th Calgary - 10 points
8th Seattle - 10 points
7th Ottawa - 7 points
6th Montreal - 5
5th Arizona - 2 points

Moral of the story, we are just as far magic # wise from the 1th pick as from the playoffs. We are not out of the playoffs yet, but it is an uphill battle.

 

[mk80]

Good night for those on Team Tank, barring the results of our game tonight:

Philly moves ahead of us with 83 points
Red Wings beat Tampa to tie us with 82 points
Islanders beat Philly in OT to move within 3 points of us
Penguins beat the Rangers to narrow the gap between us to 5 points

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Isles and Wild win tonight so that gets us closer to them. Caps lose so that’s a negative. Blues still clinging tightly to the 16 spot.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Barring something unexpected, Los Angeles will win to go 6 up [5 + 1 for the tiebreak advantage] with 7 to play.

If we win out, they'd have to go 4-2-1 to hold, barring us winning 4 more games in regulation than they do [which, if we're tied on regulation wins, we'd probably beat them on ROWs].
We go 6-1-0, they need 3-3-1. Same qualifier.
We go 5-2-0, they just need 2-4-1. Same qualifier.

 

[Majorityof1]

Magic numbers for all teams within reach of us, no matter how unlikely:

#3Cen Jets - 3 points
#2Pac Oilers- 4 points
#3Pac Vegas - 7 points
WC#1 Predators - 9 points
WC#2 La K- 10 points

----------Playoff cut-off ---------

Blues
15th Red Wings - 13 points
14th Wild - 14 points
13th Islanders - 12 points
12th Pittsburgh- 10 points
11th Buffalo - 6 points
10th NJ - 5 points
9th Seattle- 6 points
8th Calgary - 8 points
7th Ottawa - 3 points
6th Montreal - 3 points

Looks like dropping below 12th is nearly impossible. Making the playoffs is still within reach but moves further away.

 

[Brian39]

For the playoff race, I think that tonight has become must win in regulation. That would get us within 4 points of Nashville. We kept some hope alive by beating Edmonton, but that SJ loss really left no margin for error. Not only do we need the 2 points, but we also need to seize the opportunity to prevent Nashville from getting anything. All 3 of us, Nashville, and LA have easy schedules remaining. Saturday showed us that surprises will happen, but we absolutely can't be part of Nashville banking any points.

If you're going to stay in the race, you have to kick them while they are in the middle of a losing streak. After our game, Nashville goes on the road to play a desperate Isles team Saturday then a probably-done NJ team on Sunday. Have to send them on their trip with a 4 game losing streak instead of any type of victory (moral or otherwise).

Obviously San Jose beating LA would be helpful.

Here are the tank outcomes to cheer for tonight:

Isles over Columbus
Overtime between Pittsburgh and Washington
Minnesota over Colorado
And I guess root for LA and Nashville if you prefer a moving up a handful of spots over playoffs.

Edit: Sport Club Stats paints the (bleak) picture.

Weighted odds (simulations where the outcome of the remaining schedule takes team quality into account every game): They currently have us at 4% to make the playoffs. That decreases by 3.2 percentage points with a regulation loss and increases 5.5 percentage points with a regulation win. An OT/shootout win only increases our odds by 2.6 or 2 percentage points.

50/50 odds (every remaining game is treated like a coin flip): We are currently at 10.8% to make the playoffs. A regulation loss knocks us down 7 percentage points while a regulation win increases our chances by 6.9 percentage points. An OT shootout win increases our chances by 4.5 or 2.8 percentage points.

Tonight is a playoff game and as close to 'must win' as it gets without the potential for a mathematical elimination. A regulation loss gives us worse odds to make the playoffs than a team down 3-0 has to win the series. A regulation win gives us roughly the same odds as a team that is down 3-1 in a series. A loser point keeps us theoretically alive and puts us somewhere between those playoff comparisons.

Biggest game of the year. We did just enough to stay alive in our last 'biggest game of the year' against Vegas last week but the outcome tonight has to be better.

 

[Majorityof1]

For the playoff race, I think that tonight has become must win in regulation. That would get us within 4 points of Nashville. We kept some hope alive by beating Edmonton, but that SJ loss really left no margin for error. Not only do we need the 2 points, but we also need to seize the opportunity to prevent Nashville from getting anything. All 3 of us, Nashville, and LA have easy schedules remaining. Saturday showed us that surprises will happen, but we absolutely can't be part of Nashville banking any points.

If you're going to stay in the race, you have to kick them while they are in the middle of a losing streak. After our game, Nashville goes on the road to play a desperate Isles team Saturday then a probably-done NJ team on Sunday. Have to send them on their trip with a 4 game losing streak instead of any type of victory (moral or otherwise).

Obviously San Jose beating LA would be helpful.

Here are the tank outcomes to cheer for tonight:

Isles over Columbus
Overtime between Pittsburgh and Washington
Minnesota over Colorado
And I guess root for LA and Nashville if you prefer a moving up a handful of spots over playoffs.

I concur. A regulation loss and an LA win takes it out of our hands. LA would be able to eliminate us by going .500 in their last 6 even if we won our last 6.

 

[Brian39]

I concur. A regulation loss and an LA win takes it out if our hands. LA would be able to eliminate us by going .500 in their last 6 even if we won our last 6.

If they open up a 7 point gap on us tonight, they wouldn't even need to go .500 in those last 6 if we finish the year 6-0-0. They have 4 more regulation wins than us at the moment. If we lose tonight, their 'magic number' to clinch the RW tiebreak falls to just 3. Any combo of 3 regulation wins for them (including tonight's game against SJ) or games where we don't win in regulation clinches that tiebreak. If they open up a 7 point gap on us tonight, there are a lot of scenarios where we go 6-0-0, they go 2-3-1, and they still finish ahead of us in the standings.

5 of LA's last 6 are at home and the single road game is in Anaheim (which will probably see more Kings fans in the building than Ducks fans).

Vancouver is the only playoff team left on their schedule and they have been struggling a decent amount lately. Who knows if Demko will be back by the time they play this weekend (it would be the first game he is eligible for since going on LTIR, so even if he plays who knows what you will get).

They don't have any B2Bs in those last 6 games and their final game of the year is against the Hawks the day after we play our final game (so they will know exactly what they have to do).

I just don't see the Kings finding a way to not go at least 2-3-1 in their final 6 games given their remaining schedule. And frankly, even if they lose tonight I think a regulation loss for us still ends the season because I would be very surprised if the Kings can't find a way to go 3-2-1 or 2-1-3 in their final 6 games and hold us off even if we manage to win 6 straight. 11 of our 40 wins this year were in OT or shootout. We're just not winning 6 straight regulation games. 1-2 of those wins would come beyond 60 minutes and allow LA to own the tiebreak and hold us off without earning too many points of their own.

I'm at the point where I think our path to the playoffs has to be leapfrogging a Nashville team that has struggled since their magical points streak ended. Nashville simply has more games vs teams with something less to play for and they have 2 remaining B2B scenarios and their final 6 games take place in a 10 day window. After today, they go to New York, then Winnipeg, then Chicago, then Nashville, and then Pittsburgh. That is a lot of travel and games in a small window.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Leapfrogging Nashville requires us to make up 7 points in 7 games, because Nashville almost owns the 1st tiebreak (35 regulation wins to 29) outright.

That's us going 4-3-0 vs. their 0-6-1.
Or, us 5-2-0 vs. their 1-5-1.
Or, us 7-0-0 vs. their 3-3-1.

Possible? Sure, but there's a very small margin of error and it requires a regulation win over Nashville tonight, in Nashville. No regulation win, the chances of catching Nashville get smaller. A loss in any form, and you can kiss it good-bye.

 

[Brian39]

Leapfrogging Nashville requires us to make up 7 points in 7 games, because Nashville almost owns the 1st tiebreak (35 regulation wins to 29) outright.

That's us going 4-3-0 vs. their 0-6-1.
Or, us 5-2-0 vs. their 1-5-1.
Or, us 7-0-0 vs. their 3-3-1.

Possible? Sure, but there's a very small margin of error and it requires a regulation win over Nashville tonight, in Nashville. No regulation win, the chances of catching Nashville get smaller. A loss in any form, and you can kiss it good-bye.

Pretty much every possible playoff scenario at this point requires us to damn near win out. With the current WC2 team sitting at 89 points through 75 games, it is a pretty safe bet that we're going to need 95+ points to get in. Have to go 5-1-1 or 4-0-3 to hit 95 points and I think that 95 likely won't be enough.

As you point out with the numbers, the season is essentially over if we lose to Nashville in regulation and/or lose any 2 remaining games in regulation.

That SJ loss really demolished all margin for error.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Maybe if we build a large wooden badger, ...

 

[STL fan in MN]

Maybe if we build a large wooden badger, ...

The rabbit would’ve worked if Kyrou hadn’t forgotten to put people inside of it!

 

[Ted Hoffman]

8 back of Los Angeles with 6 to play - and it's 8 because the Kings have effectively locked up the tiebreak, so we have to lead outright on points. That means any combination of Kings wins and Blues [regulation] losses that totals 2 puts us out. Let's just call us done and look at where we may pick.

We're out of the top-7. In theory we could get to 8 or 9, but that relies on us losing out / Seattle and Calgary winning out. That's not happening. New Jersey and Buffalo are kind of in the same spot, I don't think we'll fall / they'll rise that far. That leaves us in the 11-16 area.

Things tightened up below us, we have hope of falling down as far as 11 - but this requires us to suck like we haven't under Bannister. I don't think the boys have that in them. If we end up tied with someone on RW, we'll probably beat them (and thus pick later) on ROWs. Some may be clear after this weekend, when the number of possibilities thins out a little.

 

[PocketNines]

I've said this for years, the easiest way to track where teams are is subtracting regulation losses from wins which you can do in an instant by looking.

Blues are +8 right now, have been in the single digits nearly the entire season whereas the Wild Card holder has been in double digits for many months and the Blues haven't even sniffed double digits. In no way have we experienced any kind of real playoff race here. Fans in the NHL are purposely kept stupid on math because the NHL doesn't want its teams relocating and if you can redefine the 25th-50th percentile as "above .500" you've done a magic act on rubes. It works.

Right now the Blues are +8, there are four teams at +7, one team at +6 and one at +5. If you tracked it this way all season you would see how glacially slow things are unless a team is in a real losing or real winning streak. It takes streaks to make movement otherwise you hover. Blues have hovered the entire year. It's a proxy for points percentage.

 

[PocketNines]

By the way, if the Blues were 8-7 in OT instead of 11-4 they would be holding the 12th pick right now because they have fewer RW than Pittsburgh. I mean it's stuff like that which could be the difference between getting the player they need and not getting him