Rumor: Coyotes set high price for Ekman-Larsson, shopping Hjalmarsson

[Jamieh]

Again, that's not the point of this.

What is he worth? If as you say, Duchene is not worth the totality of that return, and OEL is better than Duchene, is OEL worth the return? If you think OEL is not more valuable than Duchene, why not? Neither being worth it is an acceptable answer, but why.

An even easier way to do it, take pieces out of that return until it's fair value for Duchene. We're trying to find the market value not just shoot down real trades that actually happened.


It's also worth remembering that virtually every time the Coytoes make a trade, big or small, non-Coyotes fans think they extracted great value from the deal. This is one of the very few things we're good at.

My gut instinct agrees that OEL is not going to bring in the type of haul we'll be happy with. All the proxy deals I can come up with disagree with that instinct.

I don't think you can accurately define what any players trade value is aside form the obligatory 2nd round pick for a middle of the roster expiring contract, as there are way too many variables to making a trade. The fact that Ottawa made a bad trade doesn't reflect on an OEL trade in any way. You might get more from a team desperate to make the playoffs with a GM on the hot seat that thinks he is a good D man from the goal but most competent GM's would look at OEL right now and wonder what he is and not mortgage the future for the possibility of 2 playoff runs.

 

[Grimes]

I believe the point of this thread (or at least where it has gone) is a look at possible trades for OEL assuming he is unwilling to re-sign with us. I suppose we could try to lure him back with an 8+ million per season contract, but it doesn't appear that that type of money is available.

I know there are rumors (maybe even some valid reporting) thay Barroway doesnt have the money to support the team, but I have a real hard time believing he cant pony up the 8mil to keep OEL. If he cant I dont know what our expectations should be when all of Domi, Perlini, Fischer, Keller, Dvorak, Chychrun, 18 1st and potentially Strome are due for new contracts.

Unless that is just it, and we need to move on from OEL to afford the future. Some of these will be paid for by the abscense of Goligoski, Stepan and Hammer but not all of them.

 

[Grimes]

Factor in how close the race is for a wildcard spot in both conferences. A couple of teams are going to make moves to try and solidify a playoff spot. Factor in a few of those teams expected to be contenders and are currently out of the playoffs.

East - Pens, Jersey, Columbus, Philly, NYR, NYI, maybe Carolina
West - SJ, LA, Dallas, Minn, Anaheim, Col, and Calg, maybe Chicago

Which of those teams really need a top pairing D that can be part of their future? Then, which of those teams have the assets to acquire a talent like OEL?

Islanders make a lot of sense especially if it helps them sign Tavares. They certainly have the picks to make it possible. Who else?

East - TOR, NYI and NJ have the need plus pieces to get it done. Columbus and Philly have the pieces and OEL would help but isnt needed. CAR has the pieces but doesnt need OEL.

West - Dallas and COL have the pieces and need. Minn and Ana have the pieces and OEL would help but isnt needed. CAL has the pieces but doesnt need OEL (unless they have a reason to move Hamilton and think OEL is an upgrade)

Out of that list I cant see why COL would take the risk, but can think of quite a few enticing packages. I think NJ would lose in a bidding war, and the teams that dont really need OEL but have the pieces only do it to prevent other teams from becoming even more competitive, ala Capitals taking Shattenkirk to prevent other East teams from adding him (Ducks or Minn make the most sense in this situation).

The one team that is always in rumors, but I have no idea why is Detroit.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't think you can accurately define what any players trade value is aside form the obligatory 2nd round pick for a middle of the roster expiring contract, as there are way too many variables to making a trade. The fact that Ottawa made a bad trade doesn't reflect on an OEL trade in any way. You might get more from a team desperate to make the playoffs with a GM on the hot seat that thinks he is a good D man from the goal but most competent GM's would look at OEL right now and wonder what he is and not mortgage the future for the possibility of 2 playoff runs.

GM's are not wondering what OEL is, they know exactly what he is. Every year, the teams in contention for the SC make sometimes foolish moves in the eyes of us fans, but winning the SC is what it's all about, and if you can get one player to get you over the hump they do it. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but the cost to acquire a player like OEL or OEL will be high.

 

[Jamieh]

GM's are not wondering what OEL is, they know exactly what he is. Every year, the teams in contention for the SC make sometimes foolish moves in the eyes of us fans, but winning the SC is what it's all about, and if you can get one player to get you over the hump they do it. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but the cost to acquire a player like OEL or OEL will be high.

I don't think you are correct Jakey. You don't wonder when considering what OEL is, whether he's a Top Tier number 1 D man or a really good number 1 D man?? I have no idea how yo can make that assertion? You don't wonder if he was put in a good situation whether you have a Doughty or a Yandle as examples. The jury is definitely out on what the full potential of OEL is.

 

[Grimes]

There is no doubt that OEL is a repeat All Star, that lead his team in scoring, that is better than Yandle but not at the same tier as Doughty, who is also only 26/27.

What do you pay for that? If any GM is questioning if OEL can elevate his game or if he is more like the player we have seen the past two seasons they will have a season and a half to decide if they would like to keep him. I actually think this helps even out any questions of exactly how effective he is. There is no doubt in my mind that he makes every team in the league better, this is veru different than aquiring a Shattenkirk type of defenseman, and I cant remember the last time a player of his caliber was aquired at the deadline rather than in the offseason.

 

[Jamieh]

There is no doubt that OEL is a repeat All Star, that lead his team in scoring, that is better than Yandle but not at the same tier as Doughty, who is also only 26/27.

What do you pay for that? If any GM is questioning if OEL can elevate his game or if he is more like the player we have seen the past two seasons they will have a season and a half to decide if they would like to keep him. I actually think this helps even out any questions of exactly how effective he is. There is no doubt in my mind that he makes every team in the league better, this is veru different than aquiring a Shattenkirk type of defenseman, and I cant remember the last time a player of his caliber was aquired at the deadline rather than in the offseason.

Seth Jones was just two years ago.

 

[rt]

Seth Jones was just two years ago.

Seth Jones was nowhere near as proven at that point. OEL already has two seasons finishing in the overall top ten in Norris Trophy voting (despite EST zone and major market biases) and two ASG appearances at this point.

It's like October 2016 is the first time you became aware of this player.

 

[Jamieh]

Seth Jones was nowhere near as proven at that point. OEL already has two seasons finishing in the overall top ten in Norris Trophy voting (despite EST zone and major market biases) and two ASG appearances at this point.

It's like October 2016 is the first time you became aware of this player.

Ah no, Jones had significant value but he was traded from a position of strength for a position of weakness. ASG appearances mean absolutely nothing as long as a team is guaranteed one as the Coyotes have not had an allstar in a few seasons now.

 

[Heldig]

Well heck, the Coyotes should forget about trading OEL and instead focus on winning the lottery and signing Tavares in the summer.

Trade Stepan for Gallagher
Trade Goligoski, Rieder for picks/prospects

Keller - Tavares - Fischer
Domi - Strome - Gallagher
Perlini - Dvorak - Panik
Crouse - Cousins - Archibald

OEL - Dahlin
Chychrun - Hjalmarsson
Capobianco - Demers

Raanta / Wedgewood

 

[Heldig]

Funny as I wrote this I saw a post on another "site" saying Weber to Arizona. He would be a fantastic partner for OEL. Demers + Stepan + Dauphin/McInnis -> Weber and Gallagher (I really like Gallagher and think he would be awesome with Strome)

Imagine
OEL - Weber
Chychrun - Hjalmarrsson
Goligoski - Dahlin

And no I am not really serious.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

Ah no, Jones had significant value but he was traded from a position of strength for a position of weakness. ASG appearances mean absolutely nothing as long as a team is guaranteed one as the Coyotes have not had an allstar in a few seasons now.

Trading a player like Seth Jones at that time is a totally different situation from trading OEL right now, imo. His value was in his potential/age/etc... OEL is at a different point in his career with different accomplishments behind him. I do agree that I don't take ASG appearances too seriously... John Scott was an all star after all.

What I personally take from OEL's all star appearances is that he has been good enough to become popular enough in the hockey world to earn it a couple times. At least the best player on the Yotes (or at least he has been known for it).

 

[rt]

Ah no, Jones had significant value but he was traded from a position of strength for a position of weakness. ASG appearances mean absolutely nothing as long as a team is guaranteed one as the Coyotes have not had an allstar in a few seasons now.

Two top 10 Norris finishes while playing in a poor market in the Pacific and Mountain time zones is extremely meaningful, even if ASGs aren't.

Seth Jones at the time of the trade was playing less than 20min per game with Nashville, had 1g and .28ppg. His value has skyrocketed along with his play in Columbus since the deal as he's really taken his game to the next level. He was a very valuable young player at the time of the trade (as was RyJo, obviously) but he was nowhere even close to as accomplished or proven as OEL at that time. He averaged less than 20min/gp in the two previous seasons and was 0.33ppg in each of those. He was closer to Jakob Chychrun (playing 22min/gp this year with 0.45ppg - and playing an average of min/gp closer to Jones at the time of the trade, and with the same 0.33 career ppg that Jones had).

You are using hindsight on this. The Seth Jones we drool over now was not the same player at that time. He's now playing like OEL at the same age but back then it was much more Chychrun level value.

 

[Grimes]

To piggyback on the Seth Jones / Chychrun comparison, think of the return Chychrun would get right now or midseason next year. I would say it would be around the Dylan Larkin or PLD level, not the Barkov or Monahan level. That is very different than a package like Marner, a pick and Dermott. Or two 1st, Pulock and Bellows. There is risk involved in both, but one situation has more chances to hit, where the other is safer but a lower ceiling.

Nobody is going to send an equal valued player over for OEL because he will be traded to a playoff bound team. That's also why we wont see the same type of trade as Jones. I remember around the 2015 draft discussion of a Duchene + their 1st for OEL and our CHI 1st rd pick. If you look at what Duchene brought in, we should absolutely expect something similar. Duchene has struggled the past two seasons just like OEL, doesnt mean a team wouldnt want to add a proven top player for a considerable package.

 

[Sinurgy]

We've been beat down for so long we think we're damn lucky to get $15 for our $20 bill.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I down-valued OEL not due to his play but due to the relatively short length of the remainder of his contract. Remember, a playoff bound team is only assured of this seadon’s playoff run and the next. If we could pull off a sign and trade then yes, we’d be very happy with the return.

 

[Lilhoody]

$8M? No thanks.

 

[Jakey53]

I down-valued OEL not due to his play but due to the relatively short length of the remainder of his contract. Remember, a playoff bound team is only assured of this seadon’s playoff run and the next. If we could pull off a sign and trade then yes, we’d be very happy with the return.

I don't think that will hurt OEL's value. If a GM thinks he can put them over the hump they will trade good assets to get him. It happens at every TDL.

 

[cobra427]

I down-valued OEL not due to his play but due to the relatively short length of the remainder of his contract. Remember, a playoff bound team is only assured of this seadon’s playoff run and the next. If we could pull off a sign and trade then yes, we’d be very happy with the return.

I am assuming any team trading for OEL is not looking for him as a 2 playoff run rental. They would have an extension agreed to with his agent. Chayka could wait until this summer to trade him once an extension can be in place for sure. In other words, Chayka won’t trade him for 2 playoff run rental value.

I see two problems. One, we can’t trade our best players and have any hope that this team will ever get better, we flat out shouldn’t trade him unless he refuses to sign. Two, trading him now would be to a playoff team, and those teams won’t give up the assets we would need to get it done right before A playoff run. Meaning we would get a significant established player as part of the return, it would leave a mark. I just don’t see it happening at the TDL, and we likely extend and keep him anyway this summer.

 

[rt]

Contenders wouldn't give of key roster pieces playing top roles on the team but they would likely give up younger assets playing lesser roles currently(thinking of Marner or Dermott, etc ) or ones that are nearly NHL ready(thinking of Bellows or Heiskanen, etc) and also 1st round pick(s) which have the lowest value at the TDL (where roster players have max value) and the highest value at the draft (where roster player value is at its lowest point).

Getting cheap 1sts at the TDL and flipping them at peak value for roster players at the draft is intelligent asset management.

 

[Jamieh]

Contenders wouldn't give of key roster pieces playing top roles on the team but they would likely give up younger assets playing lesser roles currently(thinking of Marner or Dermott, etc ) or ones that are nearly NHL ready(thinking of Bellows or Heiskanen, etc) and also 1st round pick(s) which have the lowest value at the TDL (where roster players have max value) and the highest value at the draft (where roster player value is at its lowest point).

Getting cheap 1sts at the TDL and flipping them at peak value for roster players at the draft is intelligent asset management.

Using your example of the Leafs trading Marner and Dermott for OEL. IMO that makes the Leafs a worse team the day after the trade, I don't see how a team is willing to do that??

 

[rt]

Using your example of the Leafs trading Marner and Dermott for OEL. IMO that makes the Leafs a worse team the day after the trade, I don't see how a team is willing to do that??

That was an "or", man.

 

[Jamieh]

That was an "or", man.

Haha I did miss that or??? I think the Leafs might give up Marner before Dermott these days to be honest.

 

[Mosby]

$8M? No thanks.

That’s the minimum.

 

[Jamieh]

That’s the minimum.

As a budget team I trade him now if that is the minimum expected salary, we will be a significantly worse team with that contract.