Rumor: Coyotes set high price for Ekman-Larsson, shopping Hjalmarsson

[rt]

"Babcock hopeful Maple Leafs can play well enough to warrant deadline deal"
Babcock hopeful Maple Leafs can play well enough to warrant deadline deal

..."It's our job, as a team, to put as much pressure as we can on Lou to help us," Babcock said, according to TSN's Mark Masters. "... The better you play and the more you look like you got a chance, the more opportunity you have for your GM to help you...

...It's no secret that any such deadline deal would likely be intended to bolster the Maple Leafs' blue line...

Toronto fans have made a lot of the untouchability of Marner and Nylander. Out of curiosity I took a look at how Babcock is using these two this season. Turns out that Marner appears a lot further down Babcock's depth chart than is Nylander. Marner is 7th in TOI/GP and EVTOI/GP among Leafs forwards. In PPTOI/GP Marner is 4th among forwards, meaning not on the 1st unit. Nylander is is 4th among Leafs forwards in TOI/GP, and 3rd in EVTOI/GP. That means that Babcock (stated simply, and I'll admit much too simply) is giving Marner what looks like 3rd line minutes while Nylander is getting what looks like 1st line minutes.

It does not seem terribly unreasonable to think that Marner could be had in an OEL deal. The Coyotes have a couple of key assets in Domi and Strome that have not reached the points in their young careers that we all had hoped they would have by now. Marner might be a guy who can help in that regard. Does adding Mitch Marner put some extra air in the tires of Domi and/or Strome? It's an interesting thought.

Making the money work is tough if the Leafs don't include Gardiner, especially since we can't take on extra contracts. Marincin has 225k in unburied hit. Fehr has 975k in unburied hit. Adding Hamilton (full contract can be buried) and Mayo (on a two-way deal) gets us 1.2m closer. Marner's hit is somewhere between 900k and 1.7m depending on performance bonuses (I honestly don't know how this works). I'll just split the difference there and pretend it's 1.3m (until @mouser can set me straight ). That's 2.5m. OEL has a 5.5m cap hit.

So here's the basis:

To TOR
OEL
Hamilton
Mayo

To ARI
Marner
Fehr
Marincin

How do we get more value to Arizona (as this is not a fair trade, value-wise as outlined)? How do we get cap relief to the Leafs? Toronto does have an extra 2nd rounder. I guess we can just chuck that right in there. Do we retain on OEL? How much is that worth in assets?

 

[Heldig]

The idea of a top four consisting of OEL, Dahlin, Chychrun and Hammer makes me very excited. It's almost a Swedish Olympic team back there. At the same time, it makes me sad because...what are the odds of that happening, haha.

That is ideal. At least the lottery is done long enough in advance that when the Coyotes WIN they have a few months to sign OEL to his new contract.

 

[Alberta Yote]

Yes if the Coyotes end up picking first or second (both seems oddly unlikely) they will know who they are picking well in advance of the draft.

 

[hbk]

please post the snippet of the paragraph if you can!

"Now, he made it clear when I interviewed him back in mid-November, that while the future arena home of the team is something that would need an answer, he’s also not a guy that likes to take the easy way out. He sounded like a guy that wanted to be part of the solution long-term."

 

[YotesFan47]

"Babcock hopeful Maple Leafs can play well enough to warrant deadline deal"
Babcock hopeful Maple Leafs can play well enough to warrant deadline deal



Toronto fans have made a lot of the untouchability of Marner and Nylander. Out of curiosity I took a look at how Babcock is using these two this season. Turns out that Marner appears a lot further down Babcock's depth chart than is Nylander. Marner is 7th in TOI/GP and EVTOI/GP among Leafs forwards. In PPTOI/GP Marner is 4th among forwards, meaning not on the 1st unit. Nylander is is 4th among Leafs forwards in TOI/GP, and 3rd in EVTOI/GP. That means that Babcock (stated simply, and I'll admit much too simply) is giving Marner what looks like 3rd line minutes while Nylander is getting what looks like 1st line minutes.

It does not seem terribly unreasonable to think that Marner could be had in an OEL deal. The Coyotes have a couple of key assets in Domi and Strome that have not reached the points in their young careers that we all had hoped they would have by now. Marner might be a guy who can help in that regard. Does adding Mitch Marner put some extra air in the tires of Domi and/or Strome? It's an interesting thought.

Making the money work is tough if the Leafs don't include Gardiner, especially since we can't take on extra contracts. Marincin has 225k in unburied hit. Fehr has 975k in unburied hit. Adding Hamilton (full contract can be buried) and Mayo (on a two-way deal) gets us 1.2m closer. Marner's hit is somewhere between 900k and 1.7m depending on performance bonuses (I honestly don't know how this works). I'll just split the difference there and pretend it's 1.3m (until @mouser can set me straight ). That's 2.5m. OEL has a 5.5m cap hit.

So here's the basis:

To TOR
OEL
Hamilton
Mayo

To ARI
Marner
Fehr
Marincin

How do we get more value to Arizona (as this is not a fair trade, value-wise as outlined)? How do we get cap relief to the Leafs? Toronto does have an extra 2nd rounder. I guess we can just chuck that right in there. Do we retain on OEL? How much is that worth in assets?

Why not let them keep Fehr and Marincin, put in Hainsey, Kapanen, and Gardiner, and we add Hjalmersson + 3rd?

Becomes OEL + Hjalmersson + Hamilton + Mayo + 3rd ($9.6m) for Marner + Gardiner + Hainsey + Kapanen (~$8.35m). Kap is up right now so I'm not sure how his cost is equated. Might equal out the money.

Not sure if the value is correct but we get to keep an NHL blue line and add 2 RWs. They completely bolster their blue line.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I love marner, but if we're trading OEL I want a potential 1c coming back. I'd go for nyladner, and if not look elsewhere. If a potential 1c isn't on the table anywhere marner is a solid return though. This is all assuming OEL doesn't want to sign here, if he does I say sign him.

 

[rt]

Hainsey has been very valuable for them. Gardiner leads them in ice time per game.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Once again we are biased and over-valuing OEL. I like OEL and doubt anyone can make a case that I am an OEL hater. If he's traded, a lot of people are going to be very, very disappointed with the return.

 

[SniperHF]

Once again we are biased and over-valuing OEL. I like OEL and doubt anyone can make a case that I am an OEL hater. If he's traded, a lot of people are going to be very, very disappointed with the return.

I feel like some specifics would be helpful. The most recent proxy in terms of value is the Duchene trade. More or less and why?

I'm more than open to the idea OEL's value isn't what it should be right now, but the vast majority of people downplaying his value aren't offering up an actual rebuttal other than saying it.

Defenseman prospect Samuel Girard, Nashville’s 2016 second-round pick
Forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev, Nashville’s 2014 second-round pick
Forward prospect Shane Bowers, Ottawa’s 2017 first-round pick
Goaltender Andrew Hammond
2018 first-round pick from Ottawa*
2018 second-round pick from Nashville
2019 third-round pick from Ottawa

It's a pile of stuff, but it's a big freaking pile of stuff.

Both players have had down seasons. Both considered near the top of their position at a time. I think OEL was considered a better D than Duchene was a C too.

Why can the Avs trade a fringe top 30 center for that huge pile but the Coyotes not get similar or even better for a D at the minimum considered the same at his position but more often even better?

 

[rt]

Agreed. OEL is a better and more valuable hockey player than is Matt Duchene.

 

[Jakey53]

Once again we are biased and over-valuing OEL. I like OEL and doubt anyone can make a case that I am an OEL hater. If he's traded, a lot of people are going to be very, very disappointed with the return.

Most time I agree, buy in OEL's case I think we are under-valuing him because of the overall play of the team. It's a team sport, and when you are in last place everyone looks underwhelming. Look at the Av's last year, who all looked like s---, but this year, they all look like different players. I just hope we don't panic and make a bad trade.

 

[rt]

OEL(50%)
F.Hamilton
Dysin Mayo

Marner
Eric Fehr
Dermott

It's basically OEL and cap considerations for Marner and Dermott.

 

[Heldig]

Factor in how close the race is for a wildcard spot in both conferences. A couple of teams are going to make moves to try and solidify a playoff spot. Factor in a few of those teams expected to be contenders and are currently out of the playoffs.

East - Pens, Jersey, Columbus, Philly, NYR, NYI, maybe Carolina
West - SJ, LA, Dallas, Minn, Anaheim, Col, and Calg, maybe Chicago

Which of those teams really need a top pairing D that can be part of their future? Then, which of those teams have the assets to acquire a talent like OEL?

Islanders make a lot of sense especially if it helps them sign Tavares. They certainly have the picks to make it possible. Who else?

 

[rt]

Factor in how close the race is for a wildcard spot in both conferences. A couple of teams are going to make moves to try and solidify a playoff spot. Factor in a few of those teams expected to be contenders and are currently out of the playoffs.

East - Pens, Jersey, Columbus, Philly, NYR, NYI, maybe Carolina
West - SJ, LA, Dallas, Minn, Anaheim, Col, and Calg, maybe Chicago

Which of those teams really need a top pairing D that can be part of their future? Then, which of those teams have the assets to acquire a talent like OEL?

Islanders make a lot of sense especially if it helps them sign Tavares. They certainly have the picks to make it possible. Who else?

OEL(50%) for Bellows, Pulock, '18 1st, '18 1st

 

[hbk]

I agree on being hesitant on a winger. We have a 80% chance right now on drafting a top line winger with our first rounder if we finish last. 60% if we finish 2nd last. It’s a 4 player draft right now with 1 D and 3 wingers. The return if a trade is the play has to include a C and/or D prospect.

 

[Heldig]

OEL(50%) for Bellows, Pulock, '18 1st, '18 1st

Mostly agreed on this. I think the 50% is a lot.

Any other teams come to mind that "need" a #1/2 D?

 

[Alberta Yote]

Almost all of them

 

[Alberta Yote]

I agree on being hesitant on a winger. We have a 80% chance right now on drafting a top line winger with our first rounder if we finish last. 60% if we finish 2nd last. It’s a 4 player draft right now with 1 D and 3 wingers. The return if a trade is the play has to include a C and/or D prospect.

1 defenseman
3 wingers and 2 defensemen somewhat interchangeable.

With a slight bias to Svechnikov and Zadina that's how I see it. 1 player draft with 5 in the next tier.

That said I agree. The return needs a high end C or D.

 

[rt]

1 defenseman
3 wingers and 2 defensemen somewhat interchangeable.

With a slight bias to Svechnikov and Zadina that's how I see it. 1 player draft with 5 in the next tier.

That said I agree. The return needs a high end C or D.

OEL(11%) for Methot+Heiskanen
^even money

 

[Jamieh]

I feel like some specifics would be helpful. The most recent proxy in terms of value is the Duchene trade. More or less and why?

I'm more than open to the idea OEL's value isn't what it should be right now, but the vast majority of people downplaying his value aren't offering up an actual rebuttal other than saying it.



It's a pile of stuff, but it's a big freaking pile of stuff.

Both players have had down seasons. Both considered near the top of their position at a time. I think OEL was considered a better D than Duchene was a C too.

Why can the Avs trade a fringe top 30 center for that huge pile but the Coyotes not get similar or even better for a D at the minimum considered the same at his position but more often even better?

Just because Ottawa crapped the bed on a trade does not mean the next team making a trade are a certainty to do the same.

 

[SniperHF]

Just because Ottawa crapped the bed on a trade does not mean the next team making a trade are a certainty to do the same.

Again, that's not the point of this.

What is he worth? If as you say, Duchene is not worth the totality of that return, and OEL is better than Duchene, is OEL worth the return? If you think OEL is not more valuable than Duchene, why not? Neither being worth it is an acceptable answer, but why.

An even easier way to do it, take pieces out of that return until it's fair value for Duchene. We're trying to find the market value not just shoot down real trades that actually happened.


It's also worth remembering that virtually every time the Coytoes make a trade, big or small, non-Coyotes fans think they extracted great value from the deal. This is one of the very few things we're good at.

My gut instinct agrees that OEL is not going to bring in the type of haul we'll be happy with. All the proxy deals I can come up with disagree with that instinct.

 

[Sinurgy]

Just resign him please, the returns that are floating around here totally suck!

 

[hbk]

"Now, he made it clear when I interviewed him back in mid-November, that while the future arena home of the team is something that would need an answer, he’s also not a guy that likes to take the easy way out. He sounded like a guy that wanted to be part of the solution long-term."

Here's where I get miffed. I read the previous LeBrun article and I remember the 8762 trade proposals it spawned. This sentiment that OEL wanted to stay was not conveyed in this manner. It was a stoke the flames all doom and gloom in AZ article and we've been dealing with the never ending stream of shit proposals since. It's bullshit reporting. Click bait. And I like LeBrun. It took 2 months for him to write this sentence that he'd like to stay.

 

[Jakey53]

Just resign him please, the returns that are floating around here totally suck!

I agree. We can't rebuild forever, we have to build around our star, and that is OEL. Hopefully, this year was only a bump in the road and next year we continue to work towards a playoff berth. If OEL is traded, it just points to AB having no money to re-sign him, and we will continue the path of the last decade.

 

[Ebb]

Just resign him please, the returns that are floating around here totally suck!

I believe the point of this thread (or at least where it has gone) is a look at possible trades for OEL assuming he is unwilling to re-sign with us. I suppose we could try to lure him back with an 8+ million per season contract, but it doesn't appear that that type of money is available.