OT: Covid-19 (Part 30) Catch a Wave (Mod warning #135)

[admiralcadillac]

Quebec's measures aren't much different than anywhere else. When cases went up in most countries, commerce was shut down. That's the response of governments worldwide. I don't think it has anything to do with voting demographics and everything to do with superficial connecting of dots. Governments see a virus that's spread through social interaction, so they close sectors where people socially interact. It's a logical first-response, but seven months and multiple locations later, have commercial closings actually reduced cases? There must be data that shows correlation... or not.

Retail, gyms, salons, churches etc. are not shut down. This is my point. to say commerce is shut down here is not true and the COVID statistics are representative of that fact.

The "connecting the dots" is blatantly self-serving from the CAQ and actually reinforces an image that isn't actually representative of what the statistics are telling us.

These people are not staying in some bubble with only parties. They see their parents in the west island, and those people pass it along. They go to work with other people from all over the city. They take public transit with everyone else. Sorry, but there is no safe way to go to restaurants and bars with your friends. And house parties before/after make this so much worse. This 2nd wave started with a spike in cases for 20-30 years olds. And at the end of the day, if it's between keeping bars open vs keeping schools open, sorry but the bars close first.

They're the problem. Let's shackle them all up and there will be no more COVID cases in Montreal.

 

[waffledave]

It's quite simple. Sitting in an smallish indoor space with multiple people from different groups for more than 10 minutes is a recipe for disaster. This is clearly what leads to it getting spread around. You won't get it from staying home most of the time and going to the store every week.

 

[kgboomer]

There are huge parties every night in the McGill ghetto.

I'm sure of it... and they're having fun not giving a shit.

 

[kgboomer]

It's quite simple. Sitting in an smallish indoor space with multiple people from different groups for more than 10 minutes is a recipe for disaster. This is clearly what leads to it getting spread around. You won't get it from staying home most of the time and going to the store every week.

And they're partying and f***ing because well.... that's pretty much all a lot of youth at this age group think about with their hormones going strong. Been there, done that, except never in a pandemic. Now how to stop that until there's a vaccine and the virus is spreading strong in this weather.

 

[covfefe]

I'm sure of it... and they're having fun not giving a shit.

Once again, it’s pretty unlikely that there are people ripping it up in the Ghetto Mon-Sun nights. I’m not particularly warm to Gen Z’ers, but that’s just a colossal stretch.

 

[Lshap]

Retail, gyms, salons, churches etc. are not shut down. This is my point. to say commerce is shut down here is not true and the COVID statistics are representative of that fact.

The "connecting the dots" is blatantly self-serving from the CAQ and actually reinforces an image that isn't actually representative of what the statistics are telling us.

The government isn't targeting voting demographics, they're targeting activities. If it involves sitting together unmasked, it's closed. Which sounds reasonable, except closing all these social places a few weeks ago hasn't reduced cases so far. And back in March when they closed everything, cases weren't reduced either. It took almost two months after the shutdown for cases to start dropping.

So the real question is: How much of a connection was there between shutting businesses in March and cases dropping in May? And now, in the middle of our second semi-shutdown in October, when should we expect results from having closed restos, bars and gyms? For these closings to make sense, cases need to drop. How much time is reasonable to wait, and how much more time without a drop before we consider that closing these sectors made no difference?

It's quite simple. Sitting in an smallish indoor space with multiple people from different groups for more than 10 minutes is a recipe for disaster. This is clearly what leads to it getting spread around. You won't get it from staying home most of the time and going to the store every week.

Those indoor spaces you mention have been closed (except for classrooms and public transport). So why haven't cases dropped? And if cases don't drop in the next two/three weeks, at what point do we consider that maybe those particular indoor spaces weren't the problem?

I'm wondering if infections need a closer degree of intimacy than simply being together. Most outbreaks happened when people were close together. Based on months of data, couples sitting in a restaurant were perfectly safe, but a large group squeezed together was not. Working out at the gym was safe; group classes were not. Having a drink at a bar was safe; yelling over the music with your group of friends was not. Meeting in a well ventilated office was safe; meeting in a cramped kitchen was not. Gyms, restaurants, even bars, were operating safely for months; it was the idiot managers who allowed customers to get too close that screwed them up.

 

[Andy]

Comment about the lockdown.

Other than the entertainment industry being shut, what else is effectively shut? Honest question, maybe I am missing something. I guess family and social interactions?

Other than bars, restos, movie theaters, clubs, travel...everything else is pretty much open: retain, schools, hospitals.

I gotta say, other than the entertainment industry, my life has been pretty normal since the summer.

 

[Kriss E]

Comment about the lockdown.

Other than the entertainment industry being shut, what else is effectively shut? Honest question, maybe I am missing something. I guess family and social interactions?

Other than bars, restos, movie theaters, clubs, travel...everything else is pretty much open: retain, schools, hospitals.

I gotta say, other than the entertainment industry, my life has been pretty normal since the summer.

That's F&B industry. Sports/Fitness industry is also pretty much shutdown.
The biggest issue is the gatherings really. Not being able to chill with 2 friends inside without fear of getting fined 1K+.

 

[Kriss E]

 

[GoodKiwi]

 

[GoodKiwi]

That's F&B industry. Sports/Fitness industry is also pretty much shutdown.
The biggest issue is the gatherings really. Not being able to chill with 2 friends inside without fear of getting fined 1K+.

Only applicable if you've got two (or more) friends, so not to me.

 

[admiralcadillac]

The government isn't targeting voting demographics, they're targeting activities. If it involves sitting together unmasked, it's closed. Which sounds reasonable, except closing all these social places a few weeks ago hasn't reduced cases so far. And back in March when they closed everything, cases weren't reduced either. It took almost two months after the shutdown for cases to start dropping.

So the real question is: How much of a connection was there between shutting businesses in March and cases dropping in May? And now, in the middle of our second semi-shutdown in October, when should we expect results from having closed restos, bars and gyms? For these closings to make sense, cases need to drop. How much time is reasonable to wait, and how much more time without a drop before we consider that closing these sectors made no difference?


Those indoor spaces you mention have been closed (except for classrooms and public transport). So why haven't cases dropped? And if cases don't drop in the next two/three weeks, at what point do we consider that maybe those particular indoor spaces weren't the problem?

I'm wondering if infections need a closer degree of intimacy than simply being together. Most outbreaks happened when people were close together. Based on months of data, couples sitting in a restaurant were perfectly safe, but a large group squeezed together was not. Working out at the gym was safe; group classes were not. Having a drink at a bar was safe; yelling over the music with your group of friends was not. Meeting in a well ventilated office was safe; meeting in a cramped kitchen was not. Gyms, restaurants, even bars, were operating safely for months; it was the idiot managers who allowed customers to get too close that screwed them up.

I agree with you, but think about what you’ve said. Your first and second paragraphs are somewhat contradictory.

My point is that targeting bars and restaurants is a great way to say that those are the problem zones and that young people are the problem. Yet cases continue to climb and the statistics showed that bars and restaurants were not close to the biggest issues regarding covid breakouts.

What it was was scapegoating to the benefit of those that don’t frequent bars and restaurants as often, namely CAQ voters who are middle aged or older, live in the burbs or rural Quebec. I don’t like moves that shift blame onto specific sectors, and this one clearly did with no net positive results. We’re now restricting Halloween in a very predictable fashion.

Comments like those from Waffledave taking the perspective that a college kid goes back home and infects their parents is exactly the atmosphere Legault has created and it allows people to avoid feeling culpable because its clearly just young people that are the problem.

If someone with Covid goes shopping, who is serving them at the cash? It’s more often than not young people these days. The ones that don’t have the luxury of a job where they can work from home. The idea that young people are viral hosts that spread because of parties or carelessness doesn’t really consider daily interactions from an objective perspective and the precarity of their positions.

 

[ahmedou]

#FinalScore:COVID0-Zlatan19

 

[Lshap]

Comment about the lockdown.

Other than the entertainment industry being shut, what else is effectively shut? Honest question, maybe I am missing something. I guess family and social interactions?

Other than bars, restos, movie theaters, clubs, travel...everything else is pretty much open: retain, schools, hospitals.

I gotta say, other than the entertainment industry, my life has been pretty normal since the summer.

The biggest difference is that there's nowhere to go. Unless your work environment is elsewhere, there is no destination other than back home. Pick up food, shop for stuff, then turn around and head back. Family walks are great and I'm happy to run outdoors for now, but fresh air will become less enjoyable as the weather gets colder.

First-World problems... I know. I'm not claiming we're suffering. But compared to life before when people had social plans and social choices, this is very limiting.

 

[waffledave]

Those indoor spaces you mention have been closed (except for classrooms and public transport). So why haven't cases dropped? And if cases don't drop in the next two/three weeks, at what point do we consider that maybe those particular indoor spaces weren't the problem?

I'm wondering if infections need a closer degree of intimacy than simply being together. Most outbreaks happened when people were close together. Based on months of data, couples sitting in a restaurant were perfectly safe, but a large group squeezed together was not. Working out at the gym was safe; group classes were not. Having a drink at a bar was safe; yelling over the music with your group of friends was not. Meeting in a well ventilated office was safe; meeting in a cramped kitchen was not. Gyms, restaurants, even bars, were operating safely for months; it was the idiot managers who allowed customers to get too close that screwed them up.

Like I been saying, the parties have not stopped. They just moved from bars to houses. Drive down the side streets in St Henri on Saturday nights, you'll see it yourself.

 

[waffledave]

If someone with Covid goes shopping, who is serving them at the cash? It’s more often than not young people these days. The ones that don’t have the luxury of a job where they can work from home. The idea that young people are viral hosts that spread because of parties or carelessness doesn’t really consider daily interactions from an objective perspective and the precarity of their positions.

Or, since we know they are the most infected demographic, they are spreading it around while they are at work.

 

[GoodKiwi]

The biggest difference is that there's nowhere to go. Unless your work environment is elsewhere, there is no destination other than back home. Pick up food, shop for stuff, then turn around and head back. Family walks are great and I'm happy to run outdoors for now, but fresh air will become less enjoyable as the weather gets colder.

First-World problems... I know. I'm not claiming we're suffering. But compared to life before when people had social plans and social choices, this is very limiting.

Meh, not to me.

I'm with my best friend grilling at a park just SouthWest of Lachine right this moment sporting a plaid, long-sleeved shirt and shorts.

Feeling alive man!

 

[admiralcadillac]

Or, since we know they are the most infected demographic, they are spreading it around while they are at work.

After getting it from oldies who go buy ribs to serve the friends they invite to their backyard bbq’s.

See how easy this game is?

 

[Milhouse40]

I agree with you, but think about what you’ve said. Your first and second paragraphs are somewhat contradictory.

My point is that targeting bars and restaurants is a great way to say that those are the problem zones and that young people are the problem. Yet cases continue to climb and the statistics showed that bars and restaurants were not close to the biggest issues regarding covid breakouts.

What it was was scapegoating to the benefit of those that don’t frequent bars and restaurants as often, namely CAQ voters who are middle aged or older, live in the burbs or rural Quebec. I don’t like moves that shift blame onto specific sectors, and this one clearly did with no net positive results. We’re now restricting Halloween in a very predictable fashion.

Comments like those from Waffledave taking the perspective that a college kid goes back home and infects their parents is exactly the atmosphere Legault has created and it allows people to avoid feeling culpable because its clearly just young people that are the problem.

If someone with Covid goes shopping, who is serving them at the cash? It’s more often than not young people these days. The ones that don’t have the luxury of a job where they can work from home. The idea that young people are viral hosts that spread because of parties or carelessness doesn’t really consider daily interactions from an objective perspective and the precarity of their positions.

We were at 1052 new cases a day 16 days ago and we are at 1094 today.
The cases has stopped climbing at least for now (not sure it's going to last to be honest)

Just for perspective, here's some countries where they were 16 days ago and where they are now:
France: From 12,148 new cases to 32,427
UK: From 11,752 new cases to 16,952
Italy: From 2,498 new cases to 11,705
Belgium: From 2,607 new cases to 10,192And as we've seen, it's fast when it's start spreading.

Even the US, they were around 35,000-50,000 16 days ago and bump it up to 55,000 to 70,000 in the last 16 days.

We didn't move in the last 16 days. Not one bit.
Maybe we're doing something right here....(maybe is important at this stage).

As for bars, restaurants and all those stuffs closing, they clearly based their decision from the CDC study....but more importantly here the point is to cut some to social contact....it's like pick your poison. I don't think there's a right answer here, but the alternative to cut some social contacts would be to either close schools or the shops industry like last time.

 

[Edgy]

Blaming college kids or Gen Z for the rise in cases is ludicrous. We aren't the only province with 18-30 year olds, why aren't cases shooting up at a similar scale in other provinces? Or is something in Quebec's poutine that just gets young people into party animal mode?

There were kids partying in the summer, hanging out with friends, going to bars, movies, gyms, restaurants, protesting in the streets in massive numbers and we did not have the spikes we're having now.

So, weather is obviously a factor and reopening schools is another. But they won't shutdown schools because less people will be able to go to work and the economy is already in the gutters. If you think college/university kids are bad at social distancing and sticking to the rules, boy do I have a surprise for you concerning school and kindergarten kids.

 

[BenchBrawl]

There are anecdotal evidence of bizarre long-term symptoms in some patients. I hope a clearer picture will emerge about this (what % of infected get them, what is the diversity of symptoms, etc).

I also wonder how long we'll keep getting hit by waves, and how the health care system will survive if the virus grinds us as opposed to overwhelm us in one shot like we thought it might originally. If we get two waves a year (say in october-ish and march-ish) for 4-5 years in a row this could be a real problem on every level of society.

It does feel like the entire world was thrown into a roller coaster without its consent and we're stuck for the ride whether we like it or not.

 

[ClasslessGuy]

I have 2 close friends that got it in the last month (both early 30s, men), really mild sympotms but positive test. Stayed home like they were asked to, one with his girlfriend, she never got it. The other with his wife and 3 month old baby, they both didn't get it. Crazy how it works.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

I have 2 close friends that got it in the last month (both early 30s, men), really mild sympotms but positive test. Stayed home like they were asked to, one with his girlfriend, she never got it. The other with his wife and 3 month old baby, they both didn't get it. Crazy how it works.

It's almost like they got it from someone that was contagious but they themselves weren't, or they were only contagious if they spat in your mouth... The virus is something that we will be learning about for decades and new things will continue to pop up.

 

[waffledave]

After getting it from oldies who go buy ribs to serve the friends they invite to their backyard bbq’s.

See how easy this game is?

Progression of positive cases by demographic doesn't support this though.

 

[waffledave]

Blaming college kids or Gen Z for the rise in cases is ludicrous. We aren't the only province with 18-30 year olds, why aren't cases shooting up at a similar scale in other provinces? Or is something in Quebec's poutine that just gets young people into party animal mode?

There were kids partying in the summer, hanging out with friends, going to bars, movies, gyms, restaurants, protesting in the streets in massive numbers and we did not have the spikes we're having now.

So, weather is obviously a factor and reopening schools is another. But they won't shutdown schools because less people will be able to go to work and the economy is already in the gutters. If you think college/university kids are bad at social distancing and sticking to the rules, boy do I have a surprise for you concerning school and kindergarten kids.

The trends by demographic here are repeated in Ontario.

You don't see it happening uniformly across the country because more people come to Quebec and Ontario for university than other provinces.