OT: COVID-19 Megathread III (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Interested in everyone's thoughts on two on-going, third-rail issues as we enter Pandemic Year 2. Assuming everyone is vaccinated who wants to be vaccinated by early Summer .....

• Should mandatory masking (either via govt mandate or private business policy) stop or should it continue? If it should continue, for how long and what conditions would/could end it?
• Should proof-of-vaccination be required to participate in group activities like air travel, sporting /concert events, entering other states, etc? If so, how should they do it and for how long?

People initially looked at masking as temporary. Many people will continue masking even if it's not required, as a means of reducing their risk of getting sick in general. The public was urged, then mandated to mask as the safe, honorable, caring thing to do because the mask is protecting other people from you, even more than you from other people. In either case, absent herd immunity or vaccination, we were all at risk, therefore mask-up. In the post-vax era, that reasoning loses some urgency. Of course vaccinated people can still get Covid, but the pre-vax long odds of ever getting seriously sick improve by 95% (99.2% to 99.96% ) with the vaccine. So people should no longer require protection from other people, aside from the common courtesy of not being around people if you are sick with symptoms.

On the prove-you're-vaxed issue, again the question becomes, if you're vaxed, why should non-vaxed people be restricted from being near you? Many non-vaxed people didn't take the vax because they've already had Covid. Some were child-bearing-age women who didn't want to risk the unknown in pregnancy. There's a series of reasons, other than cuz-I-don't-want-to, why people may skip the vax because they've adopted other measures of good health. Regardless, vaxed people are 99.96% protected by the vax, and non-vaxed people are 99.2% protected by the historical odds of getting Covid, and have accepted the risks.

That's why I'd answer the two questions with,

• Mandatory masking, both govt and private company driven, should stop by July 1
• Proof-of-vaccination should not be required for anything

I'm well aware I've been in the lunatic minority on this subject from Day Zero, so my logic is skewed and I'm too close to it. Many smart, serious people on this thread have been strong advocates of both masking and vaccinations. We all share the dual goals of getting back-to-normal and preventing Covid-related sickness and death. Both these questions hit both those issues.

 

[bdub24]

Businesses can do what they like and no one should tell them otherwise. We havent had a problem with ‘No shirt, no shoes, no service’ for generations. ‘No mask’ is a no-brainer. You don’t like that business requiring it? Dont patronize that business and move on with your life.
Same thing with proof of vaccination. The so-called vaccine passport. My mom had to show my ‘passport’ to enroll me in Kindergarten, Grade School, High School, College. I had to show a ‘passport’ proving I was TB negative so I could have the privilege of working for minimum wage at Taco Bell when I turned 16. Everybody can STFU about a vaccine passport.

 

[PredsV82]

Your snarky use of numbers about "getting seriously sick" did not go unnoticed.

The whole point isnt and never has been that you arent likely to get seriously ill the point is that if enough people vaccinate there will be no vector for the virus to keep propagating and mutating. That's why everyone without a clear medical contraindication needs to accept the vaccine... so we can get back to "normal" or as near normal as possible.

If a large % of the population gets vaccinated, you will see the case numbers drop dramatically and then we can talk about getting rid of the masks. But as long as 40% or so refuse the shot, this isnt going to go away.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Your snarky use of numbers about "getting seriously sick" did not go unnoticed.

The whole point isnt and never has been that you arent likely to get seriously ill the point is that if enough people vaccinate there will be no vector for the virus to keep propagating and mutating. That's why everyone without a clear medical contraindication needs to accept the vaccine... so we can get back to "normal" or as near normal as possible.

If a large % of the population gets vaccinated, you will see the case numbers drop dramatically and then we can talk about getting rid of the masks. But as long as 40% or so refuse the shot, this isnt going to go away.

And I think further to all that... the vaccine passport can be an effective stick. If 40% of the population doesn't understand the situation or doesn't like carrots, then it's fine to move to the stick. You'll get a good number of them to vaccinate once you require the passport for travel, many types of work, sports and recreation, school, etc.

The vaccine hesitant can be herded towards herd immunity. I don't think we need to wait patiently for them to come around. This thing has been here over a year now, they've had ample time to become educated enough on the subject, and probably not enough are likely to just change their minds on their own. Not without an extra little push.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Your snarky use of numbers about "getting seriously sick" did not go unnoticed.

The whole point isnt and never has been that you arent likely to get seriously ill the point is that if enough people vaccinate there will be no vector for the virus to keep propagating and mutating. That's why everyone without a clear medical contraindication needs to accept the vaccine... so we can get back to "normal" or as near normal as possible.

If a large % of the population gets vaccinated, you will see the case numbers drop dramatically and then we can talk about getting rid of the masks. But as long as 40% or so refuse the shot, this isnt going to go away.

The numbers weren't meant to be snarky. They were meant to provide context. The vaxes are promoted to be 95% effective based on trails. During the trials, 20k people were in the placebo group and 20K in the vax group. 162 out of 20k got Covid in the placebo group, and 8 out of 20k got Covid in the vax group. So, the vax group did 95% better by comparing 8 versus 162. Those are the real numbers that led to the emergency use authorization for Pfizer. But the context is important. With no vaccine protection, 99.2% of the people did not get Covid. With vaccine protection, 99.8% of the people did not get Covid. Why is that snarky? Doesn't mean the vaccine isn't worth taking but isn't it important to know what the net benefit is, versus not taking it?

 

[PredsV82]

The numbers weren't meant to be snarky. They were meant to provide context. The vaxes are promoted to be 95% effective based on trails. During the trials, 20k people were in the placebo group and 20K in the vax group. 162 out of 20k got Covid in the placebo group, and 8 out of 20k got Covid in the vax group. So, the vax group did 95% better by comparing 8 versus 162. Those are the real numbers that led to the emergency use authorization for Pfizer. But the context is important. With no vaccine protection, 99.2% of the people did not get Covid. With vaccine protection, 99.8% of the people did not get Covid. Why is that snarky? Doesn't mean the vaccine isn't worth taking but isn't it important to know what the net benefit is, versus not taking it?

It was snarky because you were clearly trying to minimize the benefit of the vaccine. What you either dont know or are deliberately not acknowledging is that there was a defined time frame that those 162 controls got COVID. it doesnt mean that is the percentage of people that will ever get it. Current figures are consistent with nearly 10% of the US having had COVID at some point. So the chance of eventually having COVID are not as minuscule as you tried to make it look

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The numbers weren't meant to be snarky. They were meant to provide context. The vaxes are promoted to be 95% effective based on trails. During the trials, 20k people were in the placebo group and 20K in the vax group. 162 out of 20k got Covid in the placebo group, and 8 out of 20k got Covid in the vax group. So, the vax group did 95% better by comparing 8 versus 162. Those are the real numbers that led to the emergency use authorization for Pfizer. But the context is important. With no vaccine protection, 99.2% of the people did not get Covid. With vaccine protection, 99.8% of the people did not get Covid. Why is that snarky? Doesn't mean the vaccine isn't worth taking but isn't it important to know what the net benefit is, versus not taking it?

99.2% of the people didn't get Covid within the duration of the trial in random daily life at the time and place of the trial, anyway. It's not like 99.2% wouldn't get Covid if you kept blasting them with it indefinitely.

It's probably more like 80% of unvaccinated people WOULD GET COVID if you just kept exposing them to it indefinitely. (allowing a WAG of 20% for the onset of herd immunity and any unexplained natural immunity). I mean, already 30 million people have had it in the USA, so we're getting close to 10% already. Not the 0.8% of the trial.

That number would just keep climbing over time without the vaccines until we reach whatever number achieves natural herd immunity. So say that was 80% get Covid instead of just the 10% of today, i.e. the 500,000 that have died already becomes 4,000,000 over time. (Plus whatever effects of long-Covid and whatever additional damage any bad variant might introduce.)

Unvaccinated totals:
264,000,000 cases of Covid
4,000,000 deaths.

Meanwhile 95% of vaccinated people won't get Covid at all. Those are the numbers that matter to the population. The clinical trial needs to be considered in the context of approving the efficacity of the vaccine, not as an extrapolation to an entire populace over an indefinite period of time. So if everybody gets the vaccine, then at the pace to date of the virus, only 5% of the remaining 300,000,000 who haven't already had it will get the virus... 15,000,000 more people get it, and let's just assume the same death rate (although in reality it seems like the vaccination also significantly reduces the severity of it too)... so that's half the current number who got it, i.e. 250,000 more deaths.

Vaccinated totals:
30,000,000 (already) + 15,000,000 more = 45,000,000 cases of Covid
500,000 (already) + 250,000 more = 750,000 deaths

That's the real difference. Scribbled on the back of my napkin at the bar.

 

[LCPreds]

I have 0 problem with vaccine passport and it's so bizarre to me that this is a party line issue. But then again party line issues usually don't make sense to me. For example, the right tends to be completely OK with restrictions that are in place tied to the Patriotic Act (and similar). If a policeman stops you and you know you did nothing wrong then you should still do everything they tell you to. Etc. But show a vaccine passport to get on a cruise ship or travel? That's crossing the line man!

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

564K people have died while having COVID. We'll never get an accurate answer on how many would not have died if they didn't have COVID, but using the 564K, as compared to 330m people in the U.S, 99.8% of people haven't died from COVID over the last 15 months during a pandemic. The numbers on people getting COVID are important but it's serious illness or death that's caused our social reaction. We don't stop the world because of the Flu because the death rate is manageable, so the important metric is deaths. Several states are reaching herd immunity death numbers. Israel has vaccinated 5.3m people with an additional 830K having tested positive for the virus, which brings natural immunity. That’s 68% of their population. Their death numbers have plummeted to single digits. Herd immunity percentages hover between 65% and 70% of the population. We are close to those numbers in some states. Given the pace of vaccinations, more than half the country could hit Israel numbers by May.
Our threshold to get back to normal life can’t be a complete eradication of Covid. It should be to reach herd immunity levels and bring deaths down to flu-like numbers. My two questions are trying to get opinions on when can we stop forcing people to do something to protect other people as a condition of public interaction? When can half the school age population go back to school? If the majority of people have either been vaxed or have natural immunity from contracting and fighting off Covid, and the rest don’t want to get vaxed and therefore run a higher risk of contracting Covid, shouldn’t we reach a point where masks can go and we don’t need proof of vaccination? Who are we protecting at that point?

 

[bdub24]

My uneducated guess is we are a couple of years from a total hands off no precautions approach. Like the flu, this virus is changing and we will need a vaccine that can account for the strains’ differences. That is going to take time to develop I’d imagine. I personally dont think we have seen the worst that this virus is capable of yet.

 

[triggrman]

My uneducated guess is we are a couple of years from a total hands off no precautions approach. Like the flu, this virus is changing and we will need a vaccine that can account for the strains’ differences. That is going to take time to develop I’d imagine. I personally dont think we have seen the worst that this virus is capable of yet.

Why do you believe this?

 

[Adz]

The minute I get the okay will also be the minute the mask comes off. I'm wearing it for your benefit more than mine. If I felt ill and I had to go somewhere, sure, I'd still wear it--again for YOUR protection. Or if it is mandated in a place, yes. I honestly don't think my freedom is being messed with, any more than I feel messed with if someone says I can't bring a purse into an arena--and I can choose to not go. I may think it's somewhat ridiculous at times, but your hearts are in the right place. You made the decision thinking it would keep us all safer. But yeah, mask comes off ASAP.

As for the vaccine passport, I think for international travel it's acceptable to require proof of vaccination, but not necessarily as part of your passport. Just require the immunization card be brought with you. A standardized card size coupled with a plastic pouch built into new passports for their storage would aid this.

In the 10 years between when you get a passport and when you have to renew it, there may be more outbreaks or you may have to get boosters. Unless it is something that is updated electronically between the vaccinating entity and the Department of State that you never even see, then I'd just stick to requiring the vaccination record to legally cross the border. Currently to update a passport you have to get new pictures and mail your current passport and paper checks (!) to renew. They don't have enough personnel to redo everyone's passport with every booster or new immunization--it takes 6 - 12 weeks as it is! Nobody has time for that.

 

[PredsV82]

ILIILI not sure where you are getting your numbers but your statement that "several states" are approaching herd immunity is inaccurate. The numbers as of today show 3 small states barely at 30% and every other state is below that. That's about halfway to herd immunity, and we are reaching the point where people not willingly taking the vaccine are threatening the push to get to herd immunity. I was sick to my stomach when our pharmacist told me we were throwing away some shots because of lack of demand.

There are simply too many willfully ignorant or intentionally stubborn people out there.

 

[bdub24]

Why do you believe this?

Just thinking about how long it takes to get the different flu strain vaccines going in terms of the timeline. In terms of we havent seen the worst - the longer we allow it to reproduce and propagate (and due to vaccine distribution in the developing world and vaccine hesitancy in the first world this will be quite some time) the virus will mutate and odds are it become more severe, more contagious. Its what viruses do.

 

[Armourboy]

I just got my 2nd shot yesterday. I've been in bed all day with muscle and joint pain, lethargy and running a fever.

I'm not going through this and then still need to wear a mask and other things as well. End of discussion.

 

[FossilFndr]

what manufacturer?

 

[Armourboy]

what manufacturer?

Moderna

 

[FossilFndr]

Pfizer seems to have far fewer side effects. The worst for me was a single little lymph node soreness a day or so after my #2 shot. Plus injection site soreness for < 36 hours.

 

[Armourboy]

Pfizer seems to have far fewer side effects. The worst for me was a single little lymph node soreness a day or so after my #2 shot. Plus injection site soreness for < 36 hours.

I wish that's all I had. I basically feel like I did when I had the flu a year ago

 

[LCPreds]

I just got my 2nd shot yesterday. I've been in bed all day with muscle and joint pain, lethargy and running a fever.

I'm not going through this and then still need to wear a mask and other things as well. End of discussion.

I think you’re going to have to keep doing this whether you like it or not. (Unfortunately)

 

[Armourboy]

I think you’re going to have to keep doing this whether you like it or not. (Unfortunately)

Nope they can figure out which they want to do but I'm not going through this pain and still need to the exact things I was doing before the vaccine. If I gotta continue to do the same things then there isn't much need in putting myself through this.

For what it's worth the pain and fever started to ease up a bit about 10pm. It was still the most miserable 24 hours I've had in well over a year when I had the flu and some kind of respiratory mess at the same time.

 

[adsfan]

In Wisconsin, we are up to 28% vaccinated, with 40% having one shot. The total injections are 2.87 million.

The highest percentages of vaccination by county are those in and around Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay.

Previously, the rural counties were ahead of the urban ones in percentage of vaccination.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

50% of adult Americans have been vaccinated. 28m+ have tested positive and survived, giving them some level of natural immunity. That's roughly between 55% and 62% of the adult population depending on crossovers from both groups. We're getting close.

Reasonable Plan Going Forward:

1. Remove restrictions (masks, shutdowns, schools, capacity restrictions, etc) by 7/1/21
2. Vaccines for all who want them, and completed by 7/1/21
3. National education campaign on supplements and lifestyle to build strong immune system (zinc, C, D, etc)
4. Prophylactic plan for early signs of virus (ex. Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine) to minimize hospitalization)

Don't vax kids unless parents want it. No passports. No Government mandates. No private company restrictions, including air travel and interstate travel.

Return to normal life and live with Covid using the combo of better immunity, vaccines for those who want them, and proactive prophylactics.

Full house at Bridgestone for the Cup Finals. (Finally, I'm admitting to saying something outrageous).

 

[bdub24]

Points 2 and 3 are really good goals.

 

[LCPreds]

50% of adult Americans have been vaccinated. 28m+ have tested positive and survived, giving them some level of natural immunity. That's roughly between 55% and 62% of the adult population depending on crossovers from both groups. We're getting close.

Reasonable Plan Going Forward:

1. Remove restrictions (masks, shutdowns, schools, capacity restrictions, etc) by 7/1/21
2. Vaccines for all who want them, and completed by 7/1/21
3. National education campaign on supplements and lifestyle to build strong immune system (zinc, C, D, etc)
4. Prophylactic plan for early signs of virus (ex. Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine) to minimize hospitalization)

Don't vax kids unless parents want it. No passports. No Government mandates. No private company restrictions, including air travel and interstate travel.

Return to normal life and live with Covid using the combo of better immunity, vaccines for those who want them, and proactive prophylactics.

Full house at Bridgestone for the Cup Finals. (Finally, I'm admitting to saying something outrageous).

I don't think we know for sure what level of long term immunity we're getting from infection and/or from the vaccine. I do like your positive thinking on this though and hope it works out for the best. In regards to passports, I do not expect anything to be required locally but also would fully expect them to be required globally. Want to enter another country? Expect that some of them are going to require you to prove you've been vaccinated. I know this won't matter to everyone. Some people are content to never leave Tennessee.