COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

[Gurglesons]

Similar thing with brick and mortar retail. Almost all of these retailers declaring bankruptcy were burdened by debt, have next to no margin for error, and already were on slow marches to their ends due to this and the shift to online buying. COVID just accelerated the trend.

Literally just added that to my post about retail. lol.

Like I said, government subsidies won't prevent this.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Apparently BRGR in East Liberty is also closing permanently. But at least Square Cafe is moving into that BRGR/Spoon shared spot.

 

[KIRK]

Literally just added that to my post about retail. lol.

Like I said, government subsidies won't prevent this.

My wife is CEO of a 65 door chain that thankfully is pretty much debt free. But, she's been telling me for a half dozen years that if you're not a brand that is managed properly in terms of its merchandising and balance sheet, you're swimming upstream against Amazon, Walmart, and all the other online guys.

 

[ColePens]

Going to bars and restaurants used to be one of my very few hobbies. I do not want 60% to permanently close. Why does the bar and restaurant (and other businesses) decision come down to "killing people one way or another"? Why can't they be temporarily closed right now with financial assistance? Would not keeping gathering places closed while making sure those workers/owners are financially sound keep people from dying due to the virus and/or unemployment?

Because sadly no matter who is in charge - the small businesses will not get what they need. Banks were taken care of in 2008/2009. Small businesses need bailed out and honestly I watched 3 of my friends who own small businesses reach out to PNC and not even remotely get a call back. Multiple emails/calls/etc - ignored. Bigger companies were taken care of first.

Now look.. i'm not ignoring the other side, either. There are businesses out there who were failing due to poor management/service/etc. and they WILL take advantage of things. But I do not see enough help for these places to stay alive.

And I know what you are thinking. It's simple, right? Just give these people money. Obviously it isn't. They need strong regulations on who has access to this money and it needs to be well thought out to hit the businesses who need it. But this is where realism hits. I don't see it on the horizon and it disappoints me greatly. And if it does hit, it will be taken HUGE advantage of. Because what we see even with stuff like unemployment and everything else - if there is an exploitation, it will be exploited.


This is where I just beg beg beg people to get together and make this happen. But then the next question that @Snooki Stackhouse brings up is valid - how long does this run for? Honestly? That's a tough question.

 

[Gurglesons]

Because sadly no matter who is in charge - the small businesses will not get what they need. Banks were taken care of in 2008/2009. Small businesses need bailed out and honestly I watched 3 of my friends who own small businesses reach out to PNC and not even remotely get a call back. Multiple emails/calls/etc - ignored. Bigger companies were taken care of first.

Now look.. i'm not ignoring the other side, either. There are businesses out there who were failing due to poor management/service/etc. and they WILL take advantage of things. But I do not see enough help for these places to stay alive.

And I know what you are thinking. It's simple, right? Just give these people money. Obviously it isn't. They need strong regulations on who has access to this money and it needs to be well thought out to hit the businesses who need it. But this is where realism hits. I don't see it on the horizon and it disappoints me greatly. And if it does hit, it will be taken HUGE advantage of. Because what we see even with stuff like unemployment and everything else - if there is an exploitation, it will be exploited.


This is where I just beg beg beg people to get together and make this happen. But then the next question that @Snooki Stackhouse brings up is valid - how long does this run for? Honestly? That's a tough question.

Too bad the majority of Americans don't give these people money, complain when people raise prices at local businesses, and pray at the alter of Amazon / Costco / etc.

Government can't solve convenience or lack of community and America for some reason LOVES individualism at the loss of the collective. They get off on it.

I've managed restaurants where I keep certain "classics" and "draft beers" in a price point. Usually a classic cocktail will be nine dollars and we will always have a four dollar draft beer. People sit at the bar complain about the government, low wages, etc and then honestly bait you for "up-charging" them.

 

[Sideline]

Because sadly no matter who is in charge - the small businesses will not get what they need. Banks were taken care of in 2008/2009. Small businesses need bailed out and honestly I watched 3 of my friends who own small businesses reach out to PNC and not even remotely get a call back. Multiple emails/calls/etc - ignored. Bigger companies were taken care of first.

Now look.. i'm not ignoring the other side, either. There are businesses out there who were failing due to poor management/service/etc. and they WILL take advantage of things. But I do not see enough help for these places to stay alive.

And I know what you are thinking. It's simple, right? Just give these people money. Obviously it isn't. They need strong regulations on who has access to this money and it needs to be well thought out to hit the businesses who need it. But this is where realism hits. I don't see it on the horizon and it disappoints me greatly. And if it does hit, it will be taken HUGE advantage of. Because what we see even with stuff like unemployment and everything else - if there is an exploitation, it will be exploited.


This is where I just beg beg beg people to get together and make this happen. But then the next question that @Snooki Stackhouse brings up is valid - how long does this run for? Honestly? That's a tough question.

As the resident HF Penguins banker, I think people over estimate how much money we have under the couch cushions when they see billions of dollars in quarterly profits.

Those billions are on trillion dollar balance sheets. Balance sheets have an asset side and a liability side. If we write off your loan ( that's our asset ) we also have to write off something on the liability side. Banks only have about 10% of cushion before all the shareholders are totally wiped out and the FDIC has to bail out your checking account.

A heck of a lot more than 10% of businesses and individuals are getting ruined by Corona. There just isn't enough money to give everyone a break even if we could somehow prevent our shareholders from suing the banks officers and directors for negligence.

 

[Gurglesons]

As the resident HF Penguins banker, I think people over estimate how much money we have under the couch cushions when they see billions of dollars in quarterly profits.

Those billions are on trillion dollar balance sheets. Balance sheets have an asset side and a liability side. If we write off your loan ( that's our asset ) we also have to write off something on the liability side. Banks only have about 10% of cushion before all the shareholders are totally wiped out and the FDIC has to bail out your checking account.

A heck of a lot more than 10% of businesses and individuals are getting ruined by Corona. They just isn't enough money to give everyone a break even if we could somehow prevent our shareholders from suing the banks officers and directors for negligence.

December is going to be a revelation to a lot of people. Most companies are looking at quarterly numbers and make adjustments at the end of the year. Millions are losing their jobs in December. Book it.

 

[Sideline]

December is going to be a revelation to a lot of people. Most companies are looking at quarterly numbers and make adjustments at the end of the year. Millions are losing their jobs in December. Book it.

Yeah, I am super fortunate that my job is essentially mandated to exist by federal regulations. Our CEO promised no COVID related job losses in 2020 when this kicked off in March, but we're already scaling back by not renewing contractors and reducing our intake for intern/new grad programs.

This is going to be biblically disastrous if the fiscal stimulus stops. The Fed is already running full tilt.

 

[ColePens]

Too bad the majority of Americans don't give these people money, complain when people raise prices at local businesses, and pray at the alter of Amazon / Costco / etc.

Government can't solve convenience or lack of community and America for some reason LOVES individualism at the loss of the collective. They get off on it.

I've managed restaurants where I keep certain "classics" and "draft beers" in a price point. Usually a classic cocktail will be nine dollars and we will always have a four dollar draft beer. People sit at the bar complain about the government, low wages, etc and then honestly bait you for "up-charging" them.

Yeah I mean we aren't solving all of this on HF Pens. I am with you that I think its utterly disgusting that I have to pay a persons salary with tips. That's asinine. Tips should be in addition to a normal wage. Not $2. But also a good shout to you being intelligent on how to price. That makes it possible.

And yeah... the costco/amazon/etc issue is tough. On one point, they took negative profit year after year after year to race to the bottom and create market share. They did that on a gamble and it paid off in a huge way. We are supposed to penalize them now?> They took that risk and easily could have failed.

And I will just say this... the solution is never just handing over your money to the government and letting them split it all up. That equally becomes an issue and it goes nowhere. I honestly do not know how these answers are done. I don't think many people do. A lot of opinions, but every single opinion has a massive exploitation. And it will be exploited.

 

[KIRK]

As the resident HF Penguins banker, I think people over estimate how much money we have under the couch cushions when they see billions of dollars in quarterly profits.

Those billions are on trillion dollar balance sheets. Balance sheets have an asset side and a liability side. If we write off your loan ( that's our asset ) we also have to write off something on the liability side. Banks only have about 10% of cushion before all the shareholders are totally wiped out and the FDIC has to bail out your checking account.

A heck of a lot more than 10% of businesses and individuals are getting ruined by Corona. There just isn't enough money to give everyone a break even if we could somehow prevent our shareholders from suing the banks officers and directors for negligence.

The banks are pretty much ****** once all the commercial and residential paper starts going bad.

So many business and personal landlords out there not getting paid. Landlords are starting to send demands letters for their rent payments. Businesses that can't pay go under. People who can't pay get evicted. The landlords without the revenue can't pay their loans, and eventually their notes due to banks are going to get called . . . I suspect that's when the new bank bailout happens.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Completely unrelated to Covid but a huge explosion just rocked Beirut. Initial reports are a fireworks warehouse

Prayers for everyone's safety

Massive Explosion Rocks Beirut, Causing Injuries And Widespread Damage

 

[KIRK]

Yeah I mean we aren't solving all of this on HF Pens. I am with you that I think its utterly disgusting that I have to pay a persons salary with tips. That's asinine. Tips should be in addition to a normal wage. Not $2. But also a good shout to you being intelligent on how to price. That makes it possible.

And yeah... the costco/amazon/etc issue is tough. On one point, they took negative profit year after year after year to race to the bottom and create market share. They did that on a gamble and it paid off in a huge way. We are supposed to penalize them now?> They took that risk and easily could have failed.

And I will just say this... the solution is never just handing over your money to the government and letting them split it all up. That equally becomes an issue and it goes nowhere. I honestly do not know how these answers are done. I don't think many people do. A lot of opinions, but every single opinion has a massive exploitation. And it will be exploited.

This is the same debate people were having about Walmart and its impact on community stores 25-30 years ago

(you may not have noticed because that was back when your brothers were tying you down daily and forcing you to watch Jaws 86 billion times )

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I mean we aren't solving all of this on HF Pens. I am with you that I think its utterly disgusting that I have to pay a persons salary with tips. That's asinine. Tips should be in addition to a normal wage. Not $2. But also a good shout to you being intelligent on how to price. That makes it possible.

And yeah... the costco/amazon/etc issue is tough. On one point, they took negative profit year after year after year to race to the bottom and create market share. They did that on a gamble and it paid off in a huge way. We are supposed to penalize them now?> They took that risk and easily could have failed.

And I will just say this... the solution is never just handing over your money to the government and letting them split it all up. That equally becomes an issue and it goes nowhere. I honestly do not know how these answers are done. I don't think many people do. A lot of opinions, but every single opinion has a massive exploitation. And it will be exploited.

I mean, I just don't get how people sit and complain about it and then go out to Target / Wal-Mart / Whole Foods for every need.

 

[ColePens]

I mean, I just don't get how people sit and complain about it and then go out to Target / Wal-Mart / Whole Foods for every need.

I can share with you this answer and you can call me a prophet...

People are hypocrites. Trust me when I say this. And this INCLUDES me. We are all hypocrites.

 

[KIRK]

I can share with you this answer and you can call me a prophet...

People are hypocrites. Trust me when I say this. And this INCLUDES me. We are all hypocrites.

I was going to post that, but then I figured you'd admonish me for distracting from the thread's purpose.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

This is the same debate people were having about Walmart and its impact on community stores 25-30 years ago

(you may not have noticed because that was back when your brothers were tying you down daily and forcing you to watch Jaws 86 billion times )

25 to 30 years ago?

People are STILL complaining about Walmart.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

25 to 30 years ago?

People are STILL complaining about Walmart.

Well the irony is that Amazon may kill Wal Mart.
Fast forward a generation and someone may slay Amazon (or buy them).

It's corporate cannibalism that's been going on for the past 200 years.

 

[Snooki Stackhouse]

I mean, I just don't get how people sit and complain about it and then go out to Target / Wal-Mart / Whole Foods for every need.

Yesterday my wife was going to pick up some concrete repair for our garage project and wasn't sure what to get. I told her to go to to the smaller hardware store because the associates actually know what they're doing there. She refused, instead choosing Home Depot because "the prices will be better and I can get curbside pickup".

Everyone just has this immediate reaction to seek the best price and the easiest shopping experience. Most mom-and-pop stores can't offer that. I can't think of many small business I frequent (not that many exist anymore), except that hardware store. Because when there are 5 million types of caulk, I need to be able to ask someone which caulk I need. But otherwise, it's hard not to choose the best price and most convenient shopping experience.

 

[KIRK]

25 to 30 years ago?

People are STILL complaining about Walmart.

25 to 30 years ago is when it started.

 

[Beauner]

We have been lulled into a false sense of security with low, and even unbelievably NEGATIVE interest rates. Where YOU pay countries interest to lend them money.

I am fascinated to see what happens if rates go negative here, or even stay around 0.5%. My HYSA isn't so high yield anymore. What will people do to beat inflation? Even the bond market, as has been mentioned, isn't too appealing. And the stock market/mutual funds? Maybe I'm just risk averse but who the f*** knows.

People might just hoard cash, either physically or in their checking accounts.

 

[The Old Master]

I am fascinated to see what happens if rates go negative here, or even stay around 0.5%. My HYSA isn't so high yield anymore. What will people do to beat inflation? Even the bond market, as has been mentioned, isn't too appealing. And the stock market/mutual funds? Maybe I'm just risk averse but who the f*** knows.

People might just hoard cash, either physically or in their checking accounts.

buy gold

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Venezuala? Greece? Peurto Rico and Detroit?

For a more scholarly discussion:



How worried should you be about the federal deficit and debt?

And that is the real rub.

We have been lulled into a false sense of security with low, and even unbelievably NEGATIVE interest rates. Where YOU pay countries interest to lend them money.

Historically interest rates have been 6 or 7 percent. If they return anywhere close to there armegedon. For countries, cities, states, school districts and everyday people carrying lots of debt.

Greece, Detroit, and Puerto Rico can not issue their own currency, unlike the United States. You can not compare them in good faith.

Venezuela did print money and experience inflation. When you issue currency to solely pay off debts, it leads to inflation, but also a loss of trust in the currency, and even more inflation. When the government spends to expand economic production, it will pay for itself eventually and stave off recessions. Greece, being part of the Eurozone, could not issue their own currency, were somewhat forced to try a fiscal policy of austerity and it put the future of their economy in the grave.

 

[Sideline]

Greece, Detroit, and Puerto Rico can not issue their own currency, unlike the United States. You can not compare them in good faith.

Venezuela did print money and experience inflation. When you issue currency to solely pay off debts, it leads to inflation, but also a loss of trust in the currency, and even more inflation. When the government spends to expand economic production, it will pay for itself eventually and stave off recessions. Greece, being part of the Eurozone, could not issue their own currency, were somewhat forced to try a fiscal policy of austerity and it put the future of their economy in the grave.

We're not building the Hoover Dam or the interstate highway system. We're largely paying people to NOT do productive work. This is guaranteed to lead to massive asset bubbles and/or inflation if left unchecked.

The challenge with this analysis is that it is very hard to know where the point of no return is until you're already passed it.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

We're not building the Hoover Dam or the interstate highway system. We're largely paying people to NOT do productive work. This is guaranteed to lead to massive asset bubbles and/or inflation if left unchecked.

The challenge with this analysis is that it is very hard to know where the point of no return is until you're already passed it.

Way too many jobs today aren't productive for society anyway. Even just giving people money will keep consumer spending alive and the industries that support that. It's not the ideal solution, but in a country that has privatized so much, there's not a lot of immediate solutions for the federal government.

 

[KIRK]

I am fascinated to see what happens if rates go negative here, or even stay around 0.5%. My HYSA isn't so high yield anymore. What will people do to beat inflation? Even the bond market, as has been mentioned, isn't too appealing. And the stock market/mutual funds? Maybe I'm just risk averse but who the f*** knows.

People might just hoard cash, either physically or in their checking accounts.

I suspect rates are the biggest reason why the DJIA is hovering just under 27000 (under 10% off the pre-COVID high and like 45% over the COVID low) . . . there's nowhere else to really put your money where, because of inflation, you're not losing money.

I am fascinated to see what happens if rates go negative here, or even stay around 0.5%. My HYSA isn't so high yield anymore. What will people do to beat inflation? Even the bond market, as has been mentioned, isn't too appealing. And the stock market/mutual funds? Maybe I'm just risk averse but who the f*** knows.

People might just hoard cash, either physically or in their checking accounts.

Except you're technically losing money or barely keeping value when you consider inflation.