Could Toronto Wind Up With Two 1st Round Picks?

[Mess]

I'm a self proclaimed draft junkie and watch tons on amateur games a season, however I'm growing increasingly tired and frustrated that my Leafs haven't won a playoff series in 16 years and now were suddenly back to rebuilding simply because our GM is struggling to ice a competitive team and the fallout is falling back into collecting draft picks.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I don't disagree with you BUT I do see the benefit since Lily just isn't developing well, to be honest. so swapping him out soon might be needed. I am also noticing we are just not good a developing defence... we have had a lot of potential here and unless you are Rielly level you end up being mediocre... it's an issue so getting developed talent for the talent we screwed up lol might be a good way to start having good talent in the system that can tach and help our younger talent who have bright futures.. now I do think Dermott and Lilly have a lot of potential they just arent reaching it and the clock is ticking before we wasted the prime of our core. I do think that Lily and Dermott under a good defence coach might help them develop but so far and sadly for the last 15 years, we have developed Rielly (did not need much), Gunnarson and Sandin... I can't recall any other Dmen we drafted that actually panned out. Luke schenn we royally screwed up and although he played a lot i do not think he was developed well... and Dermott well he just isnt as good as we make him out to be...We overate our players. One thing I will say is that Dermott works hard and I appreciate his hard work.

What do you mean Liljegren isn't developing well? He just played his 20 year old season and was an All-Star calibre two way dman for the Marlies. I like him as an NHLer right now over Sandin even though that is probably not a popular opinion. He's steadier defensively and is less mistake prone.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

The fact there are so many high-quality goaltenders available works AGAINST Andersen's trade value.

The fact there is a flat cap and he is owed 1 million dollars in salary works FOR Andersen's trade value.

 

[Maplebeasts]

What makes you think Liljegren isn't developing?

By all accounts his defensive game, gap control, and skating have all improved.

Dermott is also a serviceable NHLer, who will sign for a cost-controlled cheap deal in the coming few weeks, and who just finished only his 2nd full season in the NHL. Thought he got better during the CBJ series, especially when Muzzin went down

I'm not sure I agree with you on either player, to be honest.

I do recognize that you have to give up quality in order to get quality, which is why I wouldn't be disappointed to see one of Sandin / Liljegren go depending on the return, but Dermott is probably a big no for me if he's in that package.

Dermott might be the better dman right now but Sandin has had 3 less years of development and should be better than Dermott sooner rather than later. I also do not lathing Dermott will be better than Liljegren in the future and he has the problem of being left handed on a team that is full of good lefties. If you have to trade one he probably makes the most sense.

 

[kb]

I'm a self proclaimed draft junkie and watch tons on amateur games a season, however I'm growing increasingly tired and frustrated that my Leafs haven't won a playoff series in 16 years and now were suddenly back to rebuilding simply because our GM is struggling to ice a competitive team and the fallout is falling back into collecting draft picks.

Again with the lies. They are not rebuilding. What core pieces has he traded away?

And again, we need to put the blame squarely where it belongs.......on Lou for starting the clock prematurely. He kept he kept pending UFA's when he should have sold, and on top of that gave away 2nd's like they were candy on Halloween.

He torpedoed the Leafs rebuild 60 games in, plain and simple.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Unlikely. If we can get two 2nds, we'll have done well.

Hell, I'd take two 2nds, especially if one of them was decent. 2, 1st round picks and 4, 2nd round picks over the next two years, yes please.

Turn 2 of those 2nd round picks + Johnson into Muzzin's defense partner, IE a Manson or a Weegar, sign Tanev as a free agent to play with Reilly and Borowiecki to play with Lehtonen / Sandin and actually make selections in the 1st two rounds of the 2020 and 2021 NHL Drafts....

Or

Turn a 1st, 2nd and Johnson into Parayko to play with Reilly, sign Demelo or Savard as an FA to play with Manson, still add Borowiecki or Gudas to play with Lehtonen / Sandin and still draft 4 times in the first two rounds over the next two years...

I take two 2nd round picks, make my defense core much better, add 2 players to my prospect pool over the next two years (plus whatever you get for Dermott and Holl) via trade. I think you get middle round pick for Holl, and you can probably flip Dermott for a decent bottom 6 forward prospect on an ELC, who figures to contribute (much like Hallender) in your bottom 6 by 2021.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm not sure if it will be a 1st but I'd expect the Leafs will likely add picks but will probably be later rounds if the a Leafs opt to take back some salary that they can bury in the minors.

Andersens trade value is hard to pin down right now. Not sure if it will be a 1st but may end up being more tha. Folks think, especially if he's highly valued by another management group. If Andersen is seen by them as 'their guy' they'll pay for it

 

[Menzinger]

Are the Leafs trying to build up to be a competitive cup winning team now or rebuilding for the future?

Leafs had the #13th overall pick in the draft and as a result of a secondary Kapanen trade now have the 15th instead which is basically moving back 2 draft spots in this draft when you combine the two moves. Since the 13th OV >> 15th overall the return on that combined investment is Evan Rodrigues, Filip Hallander and defenseman David Warsofsky to do that. So it comes down to how much value you see in those players.

Had they kept Marleau, they would still be picking 13th and had they traded Kapanen for futures last year they would have more draft capital then they have now. If the argument was they needed to trade Marleau with 1 year remaining to create cap space for last season to resign Kapanen and to make sure they could remain Cup competitive, then they failed on both accounts because they missed the playoffs and now they traded the player they were trying to protect and keep and all that did was move back 2 spots in the same draft.

Marleau didn't have to go if missing the playoffs was an acceptable outcome because with or without him on the books the outcome was the same, so trading the 1st accomplished nothing. That was a 1 time & 1 year only $6.25 mil cap space recovery benefit for 2019-20 season only and is lost and wasted because the Leafs failed to qualify for the playoffs making it a needless sacrifice that achieved nothing but increased the value of the pick we traded away.

We didn't acquire a 1st round draft pick without strings attached, we simply recovered one a few spots later in the draft to help dampen the impact of the first trade that left us without a 1st round pick.

Andersen could be traded sure, but that is independent as that option (if it exists) would be available in both scenarios regardless. However had Leafs made the playoffs and say advanced to round #2 then we wouldn't be talking about dealing our starting #1 goalie for futures today, but rather talking about re-signing him instead. That is only an outcome again spawned out of team failure and now a force rebuild. There are no guarantees a UFA goalie to save a little cap space if possible will produce better results next year even if it resulted in another 1st round pick like you suggest.

Your excitement is all spawned from a failed Marleau trade, a non playoff season, and below average goaltending forcing change, which is sending Leafs into a draft rebuild process. This is more the silver lining fallout situation then one praising good asset management and addressing needs. IMO

To simplify this post a bit, it's a question of does one value the 13th overall more than Tavares.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I'm thinking if the Leafs play their cards right and use their fiscal advantage, yes they could end up with more picks. However, Toronto can't really afford to use picks to obtain players because of the cap situation. Freddy definitely won't return a 1st on his own, or it would have already happened.

I actually don't want the big name on D. I want the under the radar D-man, with a corresponding modest cap hit. A solid partner for Rielly - ie: Tanev or Savard. I think that is all they need. Muzzin - Holl, Dermott - Lehtonen is a good 2nd/3rd pair.

I would be looking at taking on players of other teams with similar cap hits to the outgoing players for picks and using that money to essentially "buy" picks, or get a better player with a similar cap hit who is owed more money.

You and i really think the same lots but It’s really nice to be able to disagree on what Freddy brings back at that $1,000,000 real money out and is a quality starter. if it brings a first, you’ll definitely be getting an i told you so well maybe.

 

[The90]

I'm thinking if the Leafs play their cards right and use their fiscal advantage, yes they could end up with more picks. However, Toronto can't really afford to use picks to obtain players because of the cap situation. Freddy definitely won't return a 1st on his own, or it would have already happened.

I actually don't want the big name on D. I want the under the radar D-man, with a corresponding modest cap hit. A solid partner for Rielly - ie: Tanev or Savard. I think that is all they need. Muzzin - Holl, Dermott - Lehtonen is a good 2nd/3rd pair.

I would be looking at taking on players of other teams with similar cap hits to the outgoing players for picks and using that money to essentially "buy" picks, or get a better player with a similar cap hit who is owed more money.

Savard would be perfect. Simple guy. Simple pass. Eats pucks. Imagine he and muzzin as a pair. Or rielly free wheeling with him

 

[kb]

You and i really think the same lots but It’s really nice to be able to disagree on what Freddy brings back at that $1,000,000 real money out and is a quality starter. if it brings a first, you’ll definitely be getting an i told you so well maybe.

And I will be very happy to get that "I told you so". lol

 

[MattyNew91]

What are your guys thoughts of a package of Johnsson+liljegren+next years 1st to get a top 4 dman. I would like to keep this years first as I feel we would have an impact player that would be ready in 2 yrs at a low cap hit? Being this a deep draft. I would even add holl if its to a team that isn't cap restraint and could use 2 bottom pair dman. While we clear more cap to use for a bottom dman who plays a style of game where their not fun to play against.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

3 yrs ago it would have been nice to follow that rebuild plan.

We don’t even know what stage they’re at now. Is it the make a bunch of moves to make the playoffs and save the GM stage or do they need another step back?

Should’ve never signed Tavares, let Lou handle the big 3 negotiations, and built patiently after that 2017 draft by getting something back for the JVRs etc IMO.

 

[kb]

Should’ve never signed Tavares, let Lou handle the big 3 negotiations, and built patiently after that 2017 draft by getting something back for the JVRs etc IMO.

God no. Lou? He overpaid Komarov more alone than Dubas did for the big 3. But it was a whiff by not trading those UFA's for sure.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

God no. Lou? He overpaid Komarov more alone than Dubas did for the big 3. But it was a whiff by not trading those UFA's for sure.

Perhaps someone else then? Though Lou couldn’t have done worse than Doobler did, surely.

 

[kb]

Perhaps someone else then? Though Lou couldn’t have done worse than Doobler did, surely.

Look at the cap situation that the Islanders are in. It's.....not good. Less than $9 million in cap space with Barzal, Pulock, and Toews to sign. He should be fired before they are a basement club.

The Isles are primed for offer sheets for their RFA's.

 

[Tairy Greene]

What are your guys thoughts of a package of Johnsson+liljegren+next years 1st to get a top 4 dman. I would like to keep this years first as I feel we would have an impact player that would be ready in 2 yrs at a low cap hit? Being this a deep draft. I would even add holl if its to a team that isn't cap restraint and could use 2 bottom pair dman. While we clear more cap to use for a bottom dman who plays a style of game where their not fun to play against.

It would have to be a pretty elite defenseman for that package. You are essentially giving up 2 1st's and a 2nd. Muzzin didn't cost near that much. You should be able to get a good defender for Johnsson plus lili OR Johnsson plus the 1st. I wouldn't give both away.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Perhaps someone else then? Though Lou couldn’t have done worse than Doobler did, surely.

Last time Lou negotiated a contract with someone who wasn't a mediocre grinder he gave Kovalchuk 100 million to play 2 years and retire while costing the Devils millions in fines and losing a 1st + other picks while his captain walked for free. Clowe, Zaitsev, Pageau, Lee, Komarov, Marleau aren't looking so hot either.

His best work was getting a #4D at the time and a #2/3C to sign market value contracts (arguably slightly above market value to get better term), might as well brag about Dubas getting Kapanen on a market value deal.

 

[Duke Silver]

The fact there is a flat cap and he is owed 1 million dollars in salary works FOR Andersen's trade value.

Yes, both what I said and what you said can be simultaneously right.

I was responding to this: "If Dubas were to play his cards right and trade Freddy Anderson in a year when there are numerous quality FA goalies available, could he get a 1st round pick+"

That doesn't make any sense. Supply and demand.

 

[BrainyBomber]

I agree.

When the Leafs signed Tavares for $11 mil they immediately moved to win now mode, and removed all doubt of the direction of the team.

So a thread about collecting draft picks for roster players, is one seen as moving the current team in the wrong direction if you're trying to win now and not later as this is more about rebuild more chatter.

You're the one that introduced the notion of flipping Andersen as confirmation that we would be in a rebuild and you're the only one bleating on about a rebuild.

Only someone either living in a complete Leafs fantasy land or is deliberately obfuscating for s%^&s and giggles would think that flipping Andersen immediately means rebuild.

Obviously Andersen would be replaced with a solid goalie via trade or free agency. We already acquired one this year. The trade would be to move on from a perennial playoff choker, recover assets for someone who will be too expensive to retain in 1 year and to free up cap space to improve our weakest position - RD. That's what every single pundit/commentator has mentioned behind the rumours with no mention of a rebuild. But I guess you prefer to listen to the Dubas is the devil voices in your head instead.

 

[BrainyBomber]

The Shanahan plan failed when it comes to the prospect pipeline. Sandin and Robertson look promising. Lily has a shot. After that, not much. You cannot keep trading your high picks when you have not had much draft success past the second round.

It hasn't failed at all in this regard and on the contrary we've just witnessed one of our best ever periods of development. Over half the team has come up through the system in recent years and despite this we have been able to replenish the pipeline through Dubas' good drafting. Our farm development system is getting rave reviews around the league now, which was largely always a joke.

Our farm system is ranked 16th in this recent evaluation that doesn't even include Sandin: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

Last year's draft was easily one of the best in the league. With most trending to be NHLers: https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-2019-draft-class-review/
https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-2019-draft-abruzzese-koster-loponen/

And we've only effectively traded away one 1st rounder under Dubas which netted us Muzzin long-term our best bloody defensive Dmen so was well worth it. I'd easily flip this years 1st if it netted us an equivalent for the right side but won't be enough ofcourse.

 

[ToneDog]

It hasn't failed at all in this regard and on the contrary we've just witnessed one of our best ever periods of development. Over half the team has come up through the system in recent years and despite this we have been able to replenish the pipeline through Dubas' good drafting. Our farm development system is getting rave reviews around the league now, which was largely always a joke.

Our farm system is ranked 16th in this recent evaluation that doesn't even include Sandin: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

Last year's draft was easily one of the best in the league. With most trending to be NHLers: https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-2019-draft-class-review/

And we've only effectively traded away one 1st rounder under Dubas which netted us Muzzin long-term our best bloody defensive Dmen so was well worth it. I'd easily flip this years 1st if it netted us an equivalent for the right side but won't be enough ofcourse.

Dubas' drafts look promising but Shanny had been here for 6 years. Overall outside the first round the leafs have not been good IMO and hence why we dont have enough depth up front and on the blue line.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Dubas' drafts look promising but Shanny had been here for 6 years. Overall outside the first round the leafs have not been good IMO and hence why we dont have enough depth up front and on the blue line.

Well its not like Shanahan had much to do with the draft picks. Since Dubas has been GM our draft record looks much improved atleast.

When have we ever had good drafting though? I think our forward depth is fine its D that's really the trouble and has always been. We haven't had any depth since the turn of the century back there. When Shanny took over all we had was Rielly, Gards and a bunch of pylons. Unfortunately Hunter's giant young Dmen didn't pan out at all nor did any of the KHL signings. Muzzin was a great acquisition but its not as easy to solve our D problems as many fans think. Holl has finally turned into something and Lehtonen looks another nice free wallet that should help atleast. Hopefully it gets addressed via trades/FA this summer unfortunately was not last summer.

We've drafted Liljegren, Sandin, Loponen and Kokkenen in the past 3 years tho who all look to have good shots at the NHL so hopefully we've turned a corner at the backend in development.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Last time Lou negotiated a contract with someone who wasn't a mediocre grinder he gave Kovalchuk 100 million to play 2 years and retire while costing the Devils millions in fines and losing a 1st + other picks while his captain walked for free. Clowe, Zaitsev, Pageau, Lee, Komarov, Marleau aren't looking so hot either.

His best work was getting a #4D at the time and a #2/3C to sign market value contracts (arguably slightly above market value to get better term), might as well brag about Dubas getting Kapanen on a market value deal.

I agree, I mean it’s not like Lou ever won GM of the year or anything.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I agree, I mean it’s not like Lou ever won GM of the year or anything.

Now he's as accomplished as Chiarelli, great.