Coronavirus

[IcemanTBI]

No way this virus is 2-3% mortality rate. Reason is simple, this virus, in the VAST MAJORITY of cases, causes nothing more than symptoms like the common cold. The cases that ARE being recorded here are those in which, for the most part, people have gotten sick enough to have had to go get medical treatment.
Recorded cases are around 91,000 right now. If you add in the ones who may have this thing but fiure its only a cold or light flu, the total is probably closer to 500,000 or so, maybe more.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

No way this virus is 2-3% mortality rate. Reason is simple, this virus, in the VAST MAJORITY of cases, causes nothing more than symptoms like the common cold. The cases that ARE being recorded here are those in which, for the most part, people have gotten sick enough to have had to go get medical treatment.
Recorded cases are around 91,000 right now. If you add in the ones who may have this thing but fiure its only a cold or light flu, the total is probably closer to 500,000 or so, maybe more.

It's pneumonia.

 

[montreal]

Montreal, you seem to have a handle, so let me ask you. On the Ottawa Sun site about 2 weeks ago, a guy went on at length. And in the end, he concluded the following (He based this on a British researchers claims). He said a potential 60-80% infection rate and a 2% mortality rate. Thus in a nightmare scenario, 1.2% of the population could succumb to it. This is in keeping with the 1919 epidemic were ~ 3% of the entire population succumbed.

so between 1.2% and 3%!!!!. The flu is ~ 0.014% mortal in the West and probably twice that in the third world.

in a nightmare scenario, we are looking at a possible mortality rate that is ~85 times higher, to possibly 215 times

No need to panic, we are no where there, but wow...85-215 times higher chance of death.

You have to forgive those that are concerned or even panicking. Even I am doing a double take.

if things escalate quickly then we'll see but to go from 3K deaths to the number he's suggesting would need to have a massive uptick in cases. To me at this point I'm not the least bit worried but I watch/read about it every day as I have to for work. If it reaches a much, much higher rate of cases and deaths then it becomes a different story.

All I'm seeing is a lack of understanding that the concern isn't necessarily about the potential of death. When the virus, which spreads at an average of 2-3 people for every one who gets it, requires hospitalization for nearly a fifth of the people who contract it, it overwhelms the infrastructure we have.

This isn't the flu--especially if you're an older individual or someone with health complications. It's SARS.

If the cases explode from where they are currently depending on where you are as I am in the States, yes that could happen for sure but it would take a massive uptick in cases for that to happen.

People get sick and die every day, yet you don't see charts showing how many people in the world have the flu and how many have died from it yet the numbers don't compare as the flu has way more deaths this year and it's said to be a mild year as the year before over 80,000 died from the flu in the US alone.

So if over 120,000 people in the US since the start of 2018 have died from the flu, yet there's not the fear and panic from the media every day then until this gets so much worse it won't even come close to that 120,000 number any time soon.

There's no harm in being smart, washing you hands, cover your mouth when you cough, etc... but the hype and fear is sky high and so far imo 3K deaths is a drop in the bucket. Of course it could get ugly but at this point we are very far from that happening as to me it would take over 100,000 deaths to even register on the radar imo.

 

[SupremeNachos]

I don't know if someone else has posted it but people who have contracted Corona can still pass it on after it has run its course.

 

[belair]

If the cases explode from where they are currently depending on where you are as I am in the States, yes that could happen for sure but it would take a massive uptick in cases for that to happen.

People get sick and die every day, yet you don't see charts showing how many people in the world have the flu and how many have died from it yet the numbers don't compare as the flu has way more deaths this year and it's said to be a mild year as the year before over 80,000 died from the flu in the US alone.

So if over 120,000 people in the US since the start of 2018 have died from the flu, yet there's not the fear and panic from the media every day then until this gets so much worse it won't even come close to that 120,000 number any time soon.

There's no harm in being smart, washing you hands, cover your mouth when you cough, etc... but the hype and fear is sky high and so far imo 3K deaths is a drop in the bucket. Of course it could get ugly but at this point we are very far from that happening as to me it would take over 100,000 deaths to even register on the radar imo.

We know what the flu is. We have medications to treat the flu. Flu isn't likely to cause complications in a significant number of its cases.

You need to separate your focus from the fatality rates because you're missing the point. This is a highly contagious pathogen that we have no treatments or medications for.

The only reason those figures are so low in the areas it originated are because the country shut those areas down completely. They locked people in their houses for weeks. This is why your 'drop in the bucket' and 'register on the radar' comments don't really hold much water. Had they handled the situation with that mindset, it's difficult to comprehend how much worse the situation could have been.

 

[SupremeNachos]

We know what the flu is. We have medications to treat the flu. Flu isn't likely to cause complications in a significant number of its cases.

You need to separate your focus from the fatality rates because you're missing the point. This is a highly contagious pathogen that we have no treatments or medications for.

The only reason those figures are so low in the areas it originated are because the country shut those areas down completely. They locked people in their houses for weeks. This is why your 'drop in the bucket' and 'register on the radar' comments don't really hold much water. Had they handled the situation with that mindset, it's difficult to comprehend how much worse the situation could have been.

Don't forget that they waited until it was out of hand before telling anyone else. China doesn't have the best track record of honesty when it comes to things like this.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Don't forget that they waited until it was out of hand before telling anyone else. China doesn't have the best track record of honesty when it comes to things like this.

Don't trust China; only trust other nations and WHO.

 

[SupremeNachos]

Don't trust China; only trust other nations and WHO.

Only trust nonpolitical influenced sources.

 

[BruinsBtn]

No way this virus is 2-3% mortality rate. Reason is simple, this virus, in the VAST MAJORITY of cases, causes nothing more than symptoms like the common cold. The cases that ARE being recorded here are those in which, for the most part, people have gotten sick enough to have had to go get medical treatment.
Recorded cases are around 91,000 right now. If you add in the ones who may have this thing but fiure its only a cold or light flu, the total is probably closer to 500,000 or so, maybe more.

Tell it to the WHO:
WHO estimates coronavirus death rate at 3.4 percent – higher than earlier estimates
https://wapo.st/2TjoeYP

 

[Jumptheshark]

there is talk here in the UK that they may play EPL games in empty stadiums if things get worse

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

there is talk here in the UK that they may play EPL games in empty stadiums if things get worse

At least, football teams have sponsors. NHL only has escrow from players, I believe? I'm not too sure.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

So if over 120,000 people in the US since the start of 2018 have died from the flu, yet there's not the fear and panic from the media every day then until this gets so much worse it won't even come close to that 120,000 number any time soon.

There's no harm in being smart, washing you hands, cover your mouth when you cough, etc... but the hype and fear is sky high and so far imo 3K deaths is a drop in the bucket. Of course it could get ugly but at this point we are very far from that happening as to me it would take over 100,000 deaths to even register on the radar imo.

This is such an absurd take on the situation that misses the point completely.

We currently do virtually nothing to contain or prevent the spread of the standard flu. People still go to work/school, sneeze+cough directly onto each other, gather together in large numbers for conferences/events/concerts, travel all over the globe without a second thought, etc.

The death toll for the flu is precisely because we do nothing to minimize or prevent it.

The death toll for coronavirus is despite multiple governments taking incredibly extreme measures to try to minimize and contain it. China has forced extreme quarantine on tens of millions of people. They've brought their economy to a screeching halt for weeks and weeks to reduce spread. There has been travel restrictions/warnings all over the place between countries that usually never see travel restrictions. China built two freaking hospitals in just over a week to desperately try to treat their people and keep the death rate for spiraling upwards. Japan has cancelled school for a month. Countries are cancelling sporting events or making them be played to empty stadiums.

You can't compare what a completely unmitigated illness that we let run rampant does in a standard year to what a strongly mitigated illness has done in a month when we're desperately pouring billions into trying to contain it.

 

[Albatros]

China built two freaking hospitals in just over a week to desperately try to treat their people and keep the death rate for spiraling upwards.

This was nothing but a cynical PR move.

 

[discostu]

To @CloutierForVezina post above, China's willingness to halt their economy was the red flag moment for me on this. While it's hard to trust their words, their actions are hard to hide. They highly value economic growth. For them to willingly sacrifice it the way they have indicates what they feel is the risk of the alternative.

 

[Incubajerks]

To @CloutierForVezina post above, China's willingness to halt their economy was the red flag moment for me on this. While it's hard to trust their words, their actions are hard to hide. They highly value economic growth. For them to willingly sacrifice it the way they have indicates what they feel is the risk of the alternative.

I have to say that this time they acted properly and, I think, very well in time. First time I saw China asking for an help.

 

[BMOK33]

Tell it to the WHO:
WHO estimates coronavirus death rate at 3.4 percent – higher than earlier estimates
https://wapo.st/2TjoeYP

They're 100% wrong and thats evident when you look at countries that did not have a massive old sector of the population hit like the US has at the nursing home in WA.

 

[BMOK33]

No way this virus is 2-3% mortality rate. Reason is simple, this virus, in the VAST MAJORITY of cases, causes nothing more than symptoms like the common cold. The cases that ARE being recorded here are those in which, for the most part, people have gotten sick enough to have had to go get medical treatment.
Recorded cases are around 91,000 right now. If you add in the ones who may have this thing but fiure its only a cold or light flu, the total is probably closer to 500,000 or so, maybe more.

Its also been around the states since December guaranteed. The fact they now are finding people who died 8-10 days ago had it not to mention random cases in NY/FL that had no contact with anyone. Yeah, this thing has been around for months.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

This was nothing but a cynical PR move.

I don't doubt that the rapid construction of both hospitals was a show of strength that they figured would generate them positive PR. But the people being treated in those hospitals don't really care why the hospitals were built, only that they had a hospital bed to be treated in. I'm sure that the construction of those hospitals saved lives and kept the death rate lower than it otherwise would have been.

I'm no fan of China's government but they handled this one situation pretty quickly and effectively. The outbreak certainly could be going much worse right now.

 

[LadyStanley]

MLB creates a coronavirus task force and tells players to limit autographs

MLB suggests limiting fan interaction, including autographs

 

[Albatros]

I don't doubt that the rapid construction of both hospitals was a show of strength that they figured would generate them positive PR. But the people being treated in those hospitals don't really care why the hospitals were built, only that they had a hospital bed to be treated in. I'm sure that the construction of those hospitals saved lives and kept the death rate lower than it otherwise would have been.

What China’s empty new coronavirus hospitals say about its secretive system

I'm no fan of China's government but they handled this one situation pretty quickly and effectively. The outbreak certainly could be going much worse right now.

Xi Jinping knew about the situation by January 7, yet the public was not informed before January 20 when masses of people were already traveling for the Spring Festival, including five million people leaving Wuhan before the quarantine measures started to be implemented on January 23. The outbreak got out of control exactly because the CCP failed to act quickly or effectively.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

What China’s empty new coronavirus hospitals say about its secretive system

Sources I can find are saying that the hospitals were a little less than half full by Feb 12th:

China boasted that it built 2 new coronavirus hospitals in 12 days. But they're treating less than half the people they're supposed to.

That's 1100+ beds that didn't exist without them, that's 1100+ people who have a much worse chance of surviving without medical supervision.

There's a chance that business insider could be misinformed or that the ~1100 number is propaganda, let me know if you have another source that would be better to use.

Xi Jinping knew about the situation by January 7, yet the public was not informed before January 20 when masses of people were already traveling for the Spring Festival, including five million people leaving Wuhan before the quarantine measures started to be implemented on January 23. The outbreak got out of control exactly because the CCP failed to act quickly or effectively.

I don't think this is a fair read on the situation at all and is largely based in hindsight.

First of all there's a world of difference between knowing a dangerous new virus exists and needs to be monitored, and knowing that it will certainly spiral out of control immediately if millions of people aren't immediately quarantined. I don't doubt for a second that they knew about the existence of the virus on Jan 7th but I do doubt that they knew exactly how contagious it was and the true extent of damage it would cause.

Secondly I don't think you appreciate how big a step trying to cancel chinese new year would be. Even for a brutal authoritarian dictatorship like China there's only so much control they have over their own people. Military quarantine is an extremely drastic step and I don't think they even attempt it without mountains of undeniable proof that it is required.

I'm certainly willing to acknowledge that China's government could have reacted even better than they did, but they're getting some pretty heavy praise for their reaction overall from experts. Eg: China’s aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries

“I thought there was no way those numbers could be real,” says epidemiologist Tim Eckmanns of the Robert Koch Institute, who was part of the mission.
But the report is unequivocal. “China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic,” it says. “This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real.”
...
“Hundreds of thousands of people in China did not get COVID-19 because of this aggressive response.”

 

[Albatros]

Sources I can find are saying that the hospitals were a little less than half full by Feb 12th:

China boasted that it built 2 new coronavirus hospitals in 12 days. But they're treating less than half the people they're supposed to.

That's 1100+ beds that didn't exist without them, that's 1100+ people who have a much worse chance of surviving without medical supervision.

There's a chance that business insider could be misinformed or that the ~1100 number is propaganda, let me know if you have another source that would be better to use.



I don't think this is a fair read on the situation at all and is largely based in hindsight.

First of all there's a world of difference between knowing a dangerous new virus exists and needs to be monitored, and knowing that it will certainly spiral out of control immediately if millions of people aren't immediately quarantined. I don't doubt for a second that they knew about the existence of the virus on Jan 7th but I do doubt that they knew exactly how contagious it was and the true extent of damage it would cause.

Secondly I don't think you appreciate how big a step trying to cancel chinese new year would be. Even for a brutal authoritarian dictatorship like China there's only so much control they have over their own people. Military quarantine is an extremely drastic step and I don't think they even attempt it without mountains of undeniable proof that it is required.

I'm certainly willing to acknowledge that China's government could have reacted even better than they did, but they're getting some pretty heavy praise for their reaction overall from experts. Eg: China’s aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries

They didn't inform the public before January 20. Instead they started arresting doctors who talked about the situation even just in private. What they did was worse than nothing. You don't need to choose between concealing the situation altogether and placing a city under military quarantine, there would have been also more moderate options like informing the people and canceling potentially hazardous events like a CCP mass banquet for 40,000 families.

A lot of commentators interested in health issues and alike do not understand at all how China operates and naively believe it to be possible to approach the information it provides the same way they approach sources from the Western countries, Japan, or South Korea. One thing the CCP can do better than anyone is to play the gullible like a fiddle.

 

[LadyStanley]

NBA announces postponement of inaugural season of Basketball Africa League due to coronavirus concerns

NBA cancellations

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

In my experience the Chinese generally are quite positive about authoritarian government action. I think a response like we've seen in Western countries i.e. nothing beyond basic isolation of infected - often enough without any real supervision of it - and looking for contacts would have been seen as a massive failure in China once the fatalities start piling up. I think in spite of the economic fallout their aggressive action was politically smart in their context.

A couple days later my opinion still stands in that I believe this is already fairly widespread in this country, especially the West Coast, and that this will basically be a scythe for the senior and chronically ill population in this country with less notable (but still undeniable) effects on the rest of the people.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

They didn't inform the public before January 20. Instead they started arresting doctors who talked about the situation even just in private. What they did was worse than nothing. You don't need to choose between concealing the situation altogether and placing a city under military quarantine, there would have been also more moderate options like informing the people and canceling potentially hazardous events like a CCP mass banquet for 40,000 families.

A lot of commentators interested in health issues and alike do not understand at all how China operates and naively believe it to be possible to approach the information it provides the same way they approach sources from the Western countries, Japan, or South Korea. One thing the CCP can do better than anyone is to play the gullible like a fiddle.

We're talking past each other here. You're looking at their actions pre-Jan 20 and saying that they were so egregiously bad that nothing else they did after that matters. I'm looking at their response post-Jan 20 and saying their response was unprecedented in its scale and aggressiveness and they were successfully able to halt or slow the spread of the disease after the point it seemed beyond control. Their actions post-Jan 20 are what are getting international praise from experts, not their actions before that.

I don't think moderate actions would have made any difference whatsoever in the initial spread of the disease. I think they had a small window to enact extreme measures to contain this and they missed it, for which they deserve blame, but I don't think it nullifies all actions after that.