OT: Coronavirus XXXV: Y'all Got Any More of Them Vaccines?

[Drivesaitl]

If it takes 2 weeks for restrictions to actually show a drop in cases then shouldn't the reality be that it's going to take longer for ICU and hospitalizations to drop?

Daily cases have dropped radically for a month now. Cases started showing clear drop subsequent to the first restrictions. Daily cases are not even 1/4 what they were at peak. People are commenting that we are beyond the lag time where one could reasonably expect appreciable drop in hospital numbers and in ICU. Case resolutions are generally said to be anywhere from 12-18 days. With only poor scenario cases and possibly unrecoverable being much longer than that.

Keeping in mind that other emergent procedures that people require, even life saving heart surgeries, have been delayed this entire time by the pandemic. People have died waiting for other operations. At some point reasonable questions can be asked at what point hospitals again become general emergent facilities and not just mostly covid specific facilities. This is why field hospitals should be open right now. Calgary has one External Covid facility, Edmonton has none. Despite Edmonton having far more hospital cases. Just another strange thing.

 

[Drivesaitl]

geeze, I may as well get the damn virus

Its one highly critiqued twitter post commenting on it. With no one knowing what ulterior motive, Only a few people commented on the same symptoms, all women, not sure if thats any factor. Curiously all the people that reported having symptoms took Ibuprofen, which is problematic with Covid, for close to a year we've been told not to take it, and it can reduce immune response. Some of these people taking Ibuprofen and other pain killers before they even get the shot. I dunno, some people have more tolerance for pain, and I think some people are more histrionic about it.

Sure wouldn't adjust my decision to take vaccine or not based on some anecdotal possibly made up claims on twitter.

Helen Chu is an expert on this and not aware of the problems taking certain painkillers including acetaminophen. She's even recommending people take this, lol, multiple people calling her out on that bad advice.

Effect of antipyretic analgesics on immune responses to vaccination (nih.gov)

 

[bone]

I have some trouble with the above. That these numbers are wrong, by a lot. Who does these calculations. In simple math, our peak daily cases per day were 1900. Or very close to it. We're standing now at 400some cases per day. So not even 25% of the daily cases we had at peak. The drops you are citing just don't seem consistent with the magnitude of drops in daily cases we've actually had.

I don't understand the bolded at all. The drops in daily case numbers are much higher.

Could you cite where you are getting these numbers from?

I'll explain as I did the math yesterday.

The peak 7-day average for new cases was on December 7 at 1795. 15 days later the 7-day average was 1314, and 21 days later 994. A drop of 481 out of 1795 is 27%. A drop of 801 cases out of 1795 is 45% (Doing it quickly yesterday I must plugged a number in wrong to get 40% instead of 44.6%, I apologize for the error).

The average 7-day active number peaked on 20,503 on December 14th. 15 days later it was 16,459 and 21 days later 14,429. A drop of 4044 out of 20,503 is 19.7% and a drop of 6074 out of 20,503 is 29.6% (yesterday I mistakenly used December 13th which was 20502 which accounts for the descrepancy as yesterday calculations essentially had an extra day due to how close the numbers were at the two day peak).

The peak 7-day ICU average was 149 cases on December 29 (21 days prior to the numbers announced yesterday average is now 125) and the peak 7-day average non-ICU hospitalization was 789 on January 4th (15 days prior to the numbers announced yesterday and the average is now 653).

I refuse to use single day peaks due to the nature of the reporting being that some days less testing is completed or somedays were catchup days, which is why I use the 7-day averages instead of single day peaks.

I think the more relevant number here is the rate of drop for active cases as that kind of captures the average life of the illness and the rate of drop for hospitalization in general is decreasing at similar level albeit a bit higher which is intuitive because hospitalization are naturally more severe instances of the disease.

So my point was only that the rate of decrease for hospitalizations since peaking seems logical, but I'm in your boat completely about why it took so long to peak after the new cases or even active cases peaked. I always like going back to Italy because of the volume they had in the first wave and I have that available on my hard drive, and though it took a long time for new cases to diminish after restrictions, deaths peaked within about a week and ICU peaked about 10 days later, but active cases took closer to four weeks to peak. I suspect the lag for active cases at the time was that it took longer back then to comfortably say someone had beat it, but I don't understand why the peak severe outcomes took so much longer unless it is solely due to the large number of deaths that occured more quickly in Italy.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'll explain as I did the math yesterday.

The peak 7-day average for new cases was on December 7 at 1795. 15 days later the 7-day average was 1314, and 21 days later 994. A drop of 481 out of 1795 is 27%. A drop of 801 cases out of 1795 is 45% (Doing it quickly yesterday I must plugged a number in wrong to get 40% instead of 44.6%, I apologize for the error).

The average 7-day active number peaked on 20,503 on December 14th. 15 days later it was 16,459 and 21 days later 14,429. A drop of 4044 out of 20,503 is 19.7% and a drop of 6074 out of 20,503 is 29.6% (yesterday I mistakenly used December 13th which was 20502 which accounts for the descrepancy as yesterday calculations essentially had an extra day due to how close the numbers were at the two day peak).

The peak 7-day ICU average was 149 cases on December 29 (21 days prior to the numbers announced yesterday average is now 125) and the peak 7-day average non-ICU hospitalization was 789 on January 4th (15 days prior to the numbers announced yesterday and the average is now 653).

I refuse to use single day peaks due to the nature of the reporting being that some days less testing is completed or somedays were catchup days, which is why I use the 7-day averages instead of single day peaks.

I think the more relevant number here is the rate of drop for active cases as that kind of captures the average life of the illness and the rate of drop for hospitalization in general is decreasing at similar level albeit a bit higher which is intuitive because hospitalization are naturally more severe instances of the disease.

So my point was only that the rate of decrease now seems logical, but I'm in your boat completely about why it took so long to peak after the new cases or even active cases peaked. I always like going back to Italy because of the volume they had in the first wave and I have that available on my hard drive, and though it took a long time for new cases to diminish after restrictions, deaths peaked within about a week and ICU peaked about 10 days later, but active cases took closer to four weeks to peak. I suspect the lag for active cases at the time was that it took longer back then to comfortably say someone had beat it, but I don't understand why the peak severe outcomes took so much longer unless it is solely due to the large number of deaths that occured more quickly in Italy.

Thanks for the reply and the work. I think one of the other variables that are clouding the degree of change is just using 14, or 21 day time periods. The 28 day would show much more drop.

The other thing is that there was less testing during Christmas time, for approx, a week, and so numbers in that time frame were down just due to reduced testing, people being less likely to seek services right then.

I was puzzled at the bolded and then realized you subtracted the ICU from the hospital numbers, and that is correct.

i guess I expected some more correlation between cases resolving, recovered, and what that rate would look like within the hospitals.

One thing I was surprised at is how soon after initial restrictions that daily case numbers started to go down from their highest points. I expected more lagtime for that to come down given all the tracing difficulty they were having.

In anycase lots of good news in Alberta, not so much in other provinces. Alberta should be back to tracing capacity now I would think to really track most of these daily cases.

Great that we didn't experience a holiday season rebound. One would expect it would have come by now.

 

[Stoneman89]

If people are spending too long in the hospital because they aren't being treated properly you don't see that as a problem? At least by the numbers people here are spending more time in hospitals here than anywhere else.

How do you know they're not being treated properly? Do you have some insider info?
And don't even go near Quebec in regards to a comparison for treating our LTC residents. This coming from a province that leads the death race by a huge 10 X margin, and also had to have the military come in to a home and assist in changing diapers and feeding patients because the staff abandoned them.

 

[bone]

COVID-19 Alberta statistics

Go to Figure 12: Rate of new hospitalizations. Currently around 10/day per 1M people, so around 40+ based on our population of 4M+.

This is interesting. I haven't been tracking this chart, but the peaks on this are much closer to the expected peaks based on new or active case loads. This also suggests some lengthy hospital stays especially for the non-ICU patients, who you'd expect would be discharged relatively quickly. If new hospitalizations were almost stable from December 9th through December 26th, why did total hospitalizations not peak until January 4th. This is especially confusing to me when ICU cases actually peaked sooner on December 29th. There must be some very lengthy non-ICU stays happening.

Using the one example I know of personally, I think they weren't sent into ICU right away, so that could be part of it, but something does seem off with a logical test.

 

[Little Fury]

Its one highly critiqued twitter post commenting on it. With no one knowing what ulterior motive, Only a few people commented on the same symptoms, all women, not sure if thats any factor. Curiously all the people that reported having symptoms took Ibuprofen, which is problematic with Covid, for close to a year we've been told not to take it, and it can reduce immune response. Some of these people taking Ibuprofen and other pain killers before they even get the shot. I dunno, some people have more tolerance for pain, and I think some people are more histrionic about it.

Sure wouldn't adjust my decision to take vaccine or not based on some anecdotal possibly made up claims on twitter.

Helen Chu is an expert on this and not aware of the problems taking certain painkillers including acetaminophen. She's even recommending people take this, lol, multiple people calling her out on that bad advice.

Effect of antipyretic analgesics on immune responses to vaccination (nih.gov)

Would this even apply to an MRNA vaccine?

 

[Stoneman89]

If people are spending too long in the hospital because they aren't being treated properly you don't see that as a problem? At least by the numbers people here are spending more time in hospitals here than anywhere else.

Maybe Quebec has to kick them out sooner than we do because they're transmission rates are so high and they need more room badly. To me, keeping patients in longer speaks to greater care for them, not less.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Would this even apply to an MRNA vaccine?

Possibly, and there are some indications of that I've seen in studies. But more the case it was reported even way back in March that certain painkillers including Ibuprofen, Acetaminophen, and I think Advil, could actually complicate immune response to Covid-19. There were advisories in some jurisdictions not to take it. just saying.

I've heard nothing about Aspirin. I would consider taking that, certainly not as strong, but some analgesic relief, and might even reduce possibility of clots somewhat. Maybe even reduce a fever.

Would be helpful if people mentioned what temp the reported fevers were . I mean a mild fever does not require any medicating.

 

[bone]

Maybe Quebec has to kick them out sooner than we do because they're transmission rates are so high and they need more room badly. To me, keeping patients in longer speaks to greater care for them, not less.

It's an interesting consideration. If there is adequate room in the hospitals to accommodate the longer stays without burdening other resources, that's probably a good thing to ensure the best possible recovery, but it also likely supports the idea that they weren't over capacity like some were suggesting.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Man people getting really offended that I dare question Albertas handling of hospital patients. Good grief.

People really quick to just say Quebec is just rushing patients thru.

Our hospitalizations and ICU cases are dropping much slower than we would like and wondering why is very important. Are we getting higher than normal amount of people in the hospital? Are we struggling to treat them? Are they people in there for non Covid related reasons and catch Covid? Are we just somehow just treating the patients longer term?

It's very intriguing to figure out.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Maybe Quebec has to kick them out sooner than we do because they're transmission rates are so high and they need more room badly. To me, keeping patients in longer speaks to greater care for them, not less.

It could also point to potentially more complicated cases here.

 

[Drivesaitl]

My auntie's unit it's now split between. One is recovery from surgery other side is covid. It's essentially an imaginary line, not a full on wall blocking people.

Wow. that sounds like a bad idea.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Wow. that sounds like a bad idea.

That sounds like a wonderful way to go in for surgery and stay much longer cause you catch Covid..

 

[LaGu]

Too late for my mom. She complained to the LTC home on Thursday about headaches, and today is a confirmed positive. Seems to be doing okay for now, but as we've seen, the virus can sometimes take a few days to really lock in get serious. The next couple weeks are going to be pins and needles for her and our family. She had a consent form signed a couple weeks ago to get the vaccine, but nothing happened - not sure if they ran out or her place was too far down the list. Maybe they were too busy innoculating the prisons.

Very sorry to hear that. Best wishes to your mom for a good recovery.

 

[joestevens29]

Wow. that sounds like a bad idea.

Rarely do I hear that something was a good idea. Seems like the people making decisions are out of touch with reality.

About two years ago she had a party with the nurses at her place and invited me as she thought I'd find a wife. One of the doctors was there too. Did not hear any good stories. Other than the doctor saying the people that work on that ward were one of the better groups he worked with. People that weren't afraid to help each other out.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Rarely do I hear that something was a good idea. Seems like the people making decisions are out of touch with reality.

About two years ago she had a party with the nurses at her place and invited me as she thought I'd find a wife. One of the doctors was there too. Did not hear any good stories. Other than the doctor saying the people that work on that ward were one of the better groups he worked with. People that weren't afraid to help each other out.

Small disclosure. I've been part of the Primary care network. So I've had a few contacts. AHS has had some problems for a longtime, and it took decades for it to get problematic. Any bureaucratic org has problems. Anyway, won't go into it too much but I don't trust our hospital services and decisions as much as some would, lets just say. Its why I'll bend a bit in thinking that it isn't the worst thing if we have some private health facility streams as well. We need some health care efficiencies built in.

 

[bellagiobob]

Man people getting really offended that I dare question Albertas handling of hospital patients. Good grief.

People really quick to just say Quebec is just rushing patients thru.

Our hospitalizations and ICU cases are dropping much slower than we would like and wondering why is very important. Are we getting higher than normal amount of people in the hospital? Are we struggling to treat them? Are they people in there for non Covid related reasons and catch Covid? Are we just somehow just treating the patients longer term?

It's very intriguing to figure out.

Zero issue if anyone brings up legit failures that we have had, and we have had our fair share. But saying that Quebec of all places has done a better job of protecting their vulnerable, when death rates clearly show that is not the case, well you should expect some opinions disagreeing with you. And then you say we are failing our patients by keeping them too long in the hospitals, and not backing it up without any proof. Again, expect some pushback. Asking questions and having discussion on those points is fine and encouraged, the issue for me on both those points is you went to absolute statements.

 

[Stoneman89]

Man people getting really offended that I dare question Albertas handling of hospital patients. Good grief.

People really quick to just say Quebec is just rushing patients thru.

Our hospitalizations and ICU cases are dropping much slower than we would like and wondering why is very important. Are we getting higher than normal amount of people in the hospital? Are we struggling to treat them? Are they people in there for non Covid related reasons and catch Covid? Are we just somehow just treating the patients longer term?

It's very intriguing to figure out.

No, I'm questioning the logic when someone defends Quebecs LTR record and chooses to baselessly say they have done a better job than Alberta. And the stats more than bear that out, not to mention some of the individual horror stories that came out of there. Not sure how anyone can argue against that. But you choose to use innuendo and "what ifs" to back up your statements. As you said, very intriguing to find out. So maybe follow this advice, and wait till you have some proper answers before trashing what they're doing.

 

[NeverForget06]

It's interesting to me that the death numbers continue to remain about the same despite active case counts and other numbers declining.

Suggests that the 14 day "recovered" measure isn't always accurate, as I think we were all already aware of.

COVID, like pnemonia (spelling) or the flu can often be a long, drawn-out battle, especially for the elderly.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[nabob]

Man people getting really offended that I dare question Albertas handling of hospital patients. Good grief.

People really quick to just say Quebec is just rushing patients thru.

Our hospitalizations and ICU cases are dropping much slower than we would like and wondering why is very important. Are we getting higher than normal amount of people in the hospital? Are we struggling to treat them? Are they people in there for non Covid related reasons and catch Covid? Are we just somehow just treating the patients longer term?

It's very intriguing to figure out.

don’t think anyone is offended. A few people have asked for any evidence to support your claims.

 

[Stoneman89]

Wow, below 5 on the transmission cases. The transmissions are noted quickly and most clear out of active cases in a couple weeks. Hospitalizations and ICU occupations taking much longer to make significant headway of course.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Wow, below 5 on the transmission cases. The transmissions are noted quickly and most clear out of active cases in a couple weeks. Hospitalizations and ICU occupations taking much longer to make significant headway of course.

Seems crazy that we are down to 4.5% of tests being positive, cases down for over a month, and we're seeing increases in hospital and ICU. I know I'm banging this drum but one wonders how low our numbers have to get to finally make appreciable dent in hospital numbers.

Also a bit strange that so many people sought tests recently when so few of them are positive. I mean this is like 1/21 tests being positive. Is AHS paying for people to get work tested? or for travel? Starting to wonder. How about first 2 tests are free, after that pay for the testing.

We're doing really well everywhere but the hospitals.

 

[bellagiobob]

Seems crazy that we are down to 4.5% of tests being positive, cases down for over a month, and we're seeing increases in hospital and ICU. I know I'm banging this drum but one wonders how low our numbers have to get to finally make appreciable dent in hospital numbers.

Also a bit strange that so many people sought tests recently when so few of them are positive. I mean this is like 1/21 tests being positive. Is AHS paying for people to get work tested? or for travel? Starting to wonder. How about first 2 tests are free, after that pay for the testing.

We're doing really well everywhere but the hospitals.

Unless there is some evil plan by staff to keep patients in the hospital well past the point of recovery, just so that the govt doesn't reduce restrictions based on hospital numbers, I fully expect to see a decrease of around 120-150 people in our total hospital numbers in the next 7-10 days, down to around 600.