OT: Coronavirus XXVII: Two Vaccines Are 90%+ Effective, How Safe Are They?

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AM

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Nov 22, 2004
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Edmonton
If you think that the numbers are going to go down because there isn't a holiday in the next couple weeks, you haven't been doing the reading.

The virus spreads exponentially when left unchecked. With almost no restrictions - and what changed this week probably won't be a big help - the virus will continue to spread at rates better than 1:1. Super spreader events like Halloween don't just infect a bunch of partiers, they create hundreds of newly infected people who will go on to spread to more than 1 person on average. The numbers will only climb until they are checked and the rate of infection declines to below 1. There are only two ways anyone has ever reduced the rate of infection after having wide community spread: harsh lockdowns and a vast test and trace apparatus. Alberta has neither, and has actually gimped their contact tracing.

Not listening to the "lock er down" crowd because we had better than projected results BECAUSE OF THE LOCKDOWN is an absurd take and it's not what the UCP is actually doing. They're ignoring the overwhelming consensus of local healthcare experts to avoid short term economic pain in the hopes that a vaccine rides in to the rescue. But in the best case scenario a vaccine is still many months away from being wide enough to actually curb newly infected numbers and we've shot up to 81% ICU capacity from ~50% in three weeks.

I really don't blame our healthcare workers for abandoning this province. They deserve better than Alberta.
Are you saying you have no new normal practices? You were supposed to be working on it for the past nine months. Hand wash wear masks, don’t touch your face. If you want to see exponential growth check the models back in April for what the numbers would look like. Because they are what they are means people are doing a pretty good job.
 

AM

Registered User
Nov 22, 2004
8,505
2,530
Edmonton
The government will never march you to the needle. It's not worth the rabble rousing and it's counterproductive to educating people on the value of vaccinations as it just gets people's backs up about "muh freedoms".

What they might do, and even this I doubt, is make it compulsory for a kid to attend a public school or allow business' to make it a condition of employment, etc. I would think they're just going to hope that they can hit the 60% threshold voluntarily.
Sounds good, hopefully it finishes the public school system.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
46,340
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Better then yesterday, but not as good as we can be tomorrow.

Its speculative because we don't know how many tests are performed now any given day. That data has been not working on website for weeks now and ever since they did the update on the site. Without total tests done we don't know what the new case count numbers really mean because they are always a function of total amount tested.

however, just going on daily numbers we have been in a holding pattern for around 2 weeks now in which daily new cases are NOT increasing. We could be plateau, right now, and I hope so.

The other great news is ICU remains at 57. Not higher. AHS sure doesn't think so, that the ICU number appears stabilized. Been around 50 for a week or so.

cheeky edit; If I said any of this on Twitter there would be rocks thrown through my glass house..;)
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
46,340
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Canuck hunting
Judging from some comments, you don’t need the physical disease to be stricken with the paralysis.

The comments are just generally awful. A bunch of bleating. Always so many constant reasons to avoid the noise storm that is twitter. If Twitter was an actual physical place you'd wonder about violence and homicides..

kinda jk
 

AM

Registered User
Nov 22, 2004
8,505
2,530
Edmonton
His own private police force who take only orders from him. That's a new development.

Manitoba hiring private security to help enforce coronavirus restrictions

"Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister says the province is hiring a private security company to help enforce restrictions in place to curb the spread of COVID-19."
Ahh, the police state rests its head. What percentage of police do you need to feel safe from people eating avocado toast? Do do need China percentages? North Korea? Or how about the old GDR percentage. They have democratic in their name, they must be good.
 

harpoon

Registered User
Dec 23, 2005
14,284
11,558
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1.full.pdf

Study (not yet peer reviewed before someone starts complaining) suggests that ‘immunity’ to covid19 among those who have already recovered could last as long as several years. Still not sure how this information stacks up to the much publicized reports of people being infected multiple times over a span of several months.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
46,340
57,081
Canuck hunting
There's only one thing now spreading quicker than the COVID virus. And that's the thread pages on COVID discussion on this site. I go away from this for a couple hours, come back, and there's 3 more pages added!

The page was even locked down for a couple hours today. Some kind of informational posting infectioous disease..;)
 
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BoldNewLettuce

Esquire
Dec 21, 2008
28,130
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Canada
I got my second covid test of the year after some sore throat shenanigans. Rats! Negative again.

"I am not a hero. I am just a soldier who did his job"
 
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Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,476
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How many new deaths?

Info below just as important as the deaths themselves.

Tuesdays five fatalities include four people in the Edmonton Zone — a male in his 80s linked to the outbreak at South Terrace Continuing Care, a female in her 80s linked to the outbreak at Rutherford Retirement residence, and a male in his 60s and a female in her 100s not linked to an outbreak. A man in his 80s in the South Zone also died.
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,476
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Went shopping at Costco late this aft, and they're back doing what they did before masking became mandatory - limiting the amount of people in the store. The place was pretty airtight in the past few months, with everyone masking, and SD markings near the tills and seperating glass at the tills.. No provincial or civic suggestion or action ordering them to do this, so it looks a bit like suckholing to the public optic and opinion. It wasn't broke before, and this really is needless and over the top, so it looks like pandering to public sentiment.
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
22,649
53,056
Went shopping at Costco late this aft, and they're back doing what they did before masking became mandatory - limiting the amount of people in the store. The place was pretty airtight in the past few months, with everyone masking, and SD markings near the tills and seperating glass at the tills.. No provincial or civic suggestion or action ordering them to do this, so it looks a bit like suckholing to the public optic and opinion. It wasn't broke before, and this really is needless and over the top, so it looks like pandering to public sentiment.

I’ll give Costco credit, they’ve been ahead of the curve the whole time, as far as safety goes. I’m fine with extra precautions.
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,476
21,933
I’ll give Costco credit, they’ve been ahead of the curve the whole time, as far as safety goes. I’m fine with extra precautions.
I too will give them credit as to being ahead of the curve, but I don't see the need for this. It wasn't broken before. Certain businesses aren't broken. I don't think they need to be "fixed" by the government or internally. Precautions are good, as long as they follow the path of common sense. Having a limit on customers will do absolutely nothing, IMO. This is going to be a minor inconvenience for me and others, but again, needless. There is enough craziness out there, both for and against precautions without adding to it.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
46,340
57,081
Canuck hunting
I’ll give Costco credit, they’ve been ahead of the curve the whole time, as far as safety goes. I’m fine with extra precautions.

Like we've talked about before though its not the Costco chain, its Sh Pk Costco The park doesn't have that many people. Conversely the Southside Costco is the ONLY store for at least half a million people in a catchment area. its a complete gongshow, and my neighbors with memberships dont even go. They tried a few times and were fearful of the overcrowding there. They felt unsafe. Whereas in a SH PK Costco you might have 50 people in the whole cavernous store. (feel privileged) in the Southside nightmare costco its 10-20 times that amount, any time. If you distance lineups at Southside costco you end all the way to the back of the store. I mean you do sometimes line up several aisles down anyway for a checkout.

I went once during the pandemic with the neighbor and left after 10mins. Got the couple things I needed, then saw the lines, and dropped the items, and bolted and waited outside the store. Frankly the Southside location should be shutdown. The volume of customers is obscene. Its too much for one store. Its too crowded during a pandemic.

Costcos one answer to this, in 30yrs, since the ONE southside location opened, is to open a store up in Leduc. Its preposterous Costco has only one store on the whole soutside of Edmonton, and tons of customers here have given them the gears vented frustration and just cancelled memberships. Which tehy seem fine with because each one cancellation lessens the insane crowds. The Southside of Edmonton is the fastest growing area in all of Canada, and Costco doesn't give a Toss. Same Time frame Walmart has opened up at least 6 more stores. Costco doesn't have a clue, its like they're completely blind to South Edmonton expansion. Meadows, Ellerslie, Windermere, etc, they don't exist to Costco. Instead they open up a sleepy location in Leduc far away that nobody from here goes to because its way too far away. Costco head office must figure International Airport is right in Edmonton or something..

Southside Costco would be the worst place to shop in all of Edmonton. Except Ikea, the only MORE crowded place.

So It isn't Costco at all thats ahead of the curve, and actually its a business that has lost pretty incredible market share, and are not expanding as they should. They'll eventually suffer the fate of chains like Safeway.

rant done. heh
 
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