Coronavirus discussion thread (no political debates) IV

[JT AM da real deal]

Italy, Spain and Brazil among others would like a word.

Yes it landed in those countries in the winter. Italy and Spain are now in mid summer heat and it is virtually gone. Brazil started 1 month ago into their winter. Why do you think it took so long to get to them?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

If the virus is present it doesn’t matter if you are on the darn moon,it will transfer. It will transmit regardless

Yes it does. But when it is humid, tons of sun and heat it moves like a foot from your mouth. In dry and colder environs it moves like 6 feet from your mouth. That is a huge difference.

 

[Golden_Jet]

But Hot air rises as less dense, cold air is heavier and sinks.,

 

[kb]

Yes it does. But when it is humid, tons of sun and heat it moves like a foot from your mouth. In dry and colder environs it moves like 6 feet from your mouth. That is a huge difference.

New Zealand has opened up....in winter. Packed stadiums.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

New Zealand has opened up....in winter. Packed stadiums.

I know da spread has started. Like over 100 new cases since some Londoners brought it back on island to go to a parents funeral. Hopefully they can contact trace it properly and stop it quick before it runs rampant.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I don’t know why it’s being communicated as a 2nd wave when the first wave is still going.

Is it a plateau?

While some early hot spots such as New York state have seen a sustained drop in new cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations have swelled recently in places like Texas, Arizona, Arkansas and California.

Maybe this just plateau's at 500 deaths per day (or whatever number) for the rest of the summer? Then, god knows what happens in the fall (no idea of the validity that heat makes a difference).

Sorry for the references to the situation in the U.S. Wonder if this observation (or theory) is relevant in Canada?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Is it a plateau?

While some early hot spots such as New York state have seen a sustained drop in new cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations have swelled recently in places like Texas, Arizona, Arkansas and California.

Maybe this just plateau's at 5o0 deaths per day (or whatever number) for the rest of the summer? Then, god knows what happens in the fall.

Sorry for the references to the situation in the U.S. Wonder if this observation (or theory) is relevant in Canada?

Canada plateaued at 2,000 new cases a day in early May and like 200 deaths a day. Now we are at like 400 new cases a day and like 50 deaths a day. Take a look at da curve. The projections show another couple weeks of declining numbers and then we may get rid of it. But all it takes is a few visitors to bring it back and it can ramp up quickly like Kiwis. But luckily for us if you are outside it does not transmit as easily with humidity and da sun and heat kills it much quicker on surfaces.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Canada plateaued at 2,000 new cases a day in early May and like 200 deaths a day. Now we are at like 400 new cases a day and like 50 deaths a day. Take a look at da curve. The projections show another couple weeks of declining numbers and then we may get rid of it. But all it takes is a few visitors to bring it back and it can ramp up quickly like Kiwis. But luckily for us if you are outside it does not transmit as easily with humidity and da sun and heat kills it much quicker on surfaces.

Has it stayed at the 50 deaths per day (& 400 new cases per day) for awhile? Being a little lazy here (i.e., not researching) as pressed for time this morning.

Update - Just looked it up. Curve looks pretty flat or going down since early May it seems.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Has it stayed at the 50 deaths per day (& 400 new cases per day) for awhile? Being a little lazy here (i.e., not researching) as pressed for time this morning.[/QUOT
No da 7 days moving average was 900 on May 31st and it has been dropping daily. 500 on June 12th. Pretty steep drops if you ask me. But need an actuary to look for significance really.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

But Hot air rises as less dense, cold air is heavier and sinks.,

No idea why but that is CDC guidance ... maybe some Trump cool aid i don't know ... this whole thing has too many mysteries for my liking

 

[Legion34]

No idea why but that is CDC guidance ... maybe some Trump cool aid i don't know ... this whole thing has too many mysteries for my liking

Part of it is heat. UV light does kill viruses

the rest is humidity. The virus has to transmit to a new host. As a very crude example image running on land vs running through water. The resistance in the air can delay travel and lower distance travelled

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Part of it is heat. UV light does kill viruses

the rest is humidity. The virus has to transmit to a new host. As a very crude example image running on land vs running through water. The resistance in the air can delay travel and lower distance travelled

Makes sense as CDC guy was saying last night you were far less likely to catch it outdoors if you maintain your circle then indoors. To me it was da wrong message but we are so new to this thing no one really knows for sure what is truly going on here.

 

[Legion34]

Makes sense as CDC guy was saying last night you were far less likely to catch it outdoors if you maintain your circle then indoors. To me it was da wrong message but we are so new to this thing no one really knows for sure what is truly going on here.

yep no one knows. Generally heat and especially humidity help lower transmission


Most time’s cough/sneeze are more likely than aerosols. for droplets.


Outdoor is generally less risky because of the ice etc but also open air. People are farther apart and it’s not recycled. In an office or subway everyone is breathing the same air. Touching the same phones/desks files etc.

we will be able to judge when it’s all over.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Is it a plateau?

While some early hot spots such as New York state have seen a sustained drop in new cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations have swelled recently in places like Texas, Arizona, Arkansas and California.

Maybe this just plateau's at 500 deaths per day (or whatever number) for the rest of the summer? Then, god knows what happens in the fall (no idea of the validity that heat makes a difference).

Sorry for the references to the situation in the U.S. Wonder if this observation (or theory) is relevant in Canada?

The borders closed has been extended so thats good. It’s spiking there in the states significantly likely because of how seriously take it as a threatening occurrence to overall health of the community. I think readiness for implementation of restrictions are much better everywhere at present. It was really late getting it shut down in Canada by likely a couple weeks,possibly 3 weeks. We have more Ppe available etc and most importantly respirators which is great. I am laying low on this until it’s almost non existent, which is how long ha I don’t know.

China is starting to get second smack now. This thing is terrible to contain it seems. New understanding of it by the day,week really.

 

[HolyCrap]

The borders closed has been extended so thats good. It’s spiking there in the states significantly likely because of how seriously take it as a threatening occurrence to overall health of the community. I think readiness for implementation of restrictions are much better everywhere at present. It was really late getting it shut down in Canada by likely a couple weeks,possibly 3 weeks. We have more Ppe available etc and most importantly respirators which is great. I am laying low on this until it’s almost non existent, which is how long ha I don’t know.

China is starting to get second smack now. This thing is terrible to contain it seems. New understanding of it by the day,week really.

I assume yourre elderly or immune compromised? If us healthy people keep our distance from the compromised folks this won’t be a huge issue.

 

[Nineteen67]

The borders closed has been extended so thats good. It’s spiking there in the states significantly likely because of how seriously take it as a threatening occurrence to overall health of the community. I think readiness for implementation of restrictions are much better everywhere at present. It was really late getting it shut down in Canada by likely a couple weeks,possibly 3 weeks. We have more Ppe available etc and most importantly respirators which is great. I am laying low on this until it’s almost non existent, which is how long ha I don’t know.

China is starting to get second smack now. This thing is terrible to contain it seems. New understanding of it by the day,week really.

Hospitalizations have been going down for awhile now and that’s what I look at.

 

[BertCorbeau]

The borders closed has been extended so thats good. It’s spiking there in the states significantly likely because of how seriously take it as a threatening occurrence to overall health of the community. I think readiness for implementation of restrictions are much better everywhere at present. It was really late getting it shut down in Canada by likely a couple weeks,possibly 3 weeks. We have more Ppe available etc and most importantly respirators which is great. I am laying low on this until it’s almost non existent, which is how long ha I don’t know.

China is starting to get second smack now. This thing is terrible to contain it seems. New understanding of it by the day,week really.

It's prudent to stay responsible through the next several months. Really only going out for a basic lifestyle, avoid popping in to stores and elect for one bigger shop, and not dining in as much. Smart social gatherings - keeping distance, etc - can help mitigate any issues.

Ontario is in a great position now and this summer will start to feel more normal. But I'd be looking at making sure we're really cautious come September before next cold/flu season when this could really hit back hard.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It's prudent to stay responsible through the next several months. Really only going out for a basic lifestyle, avoid popping in to stores and elect for one bigger shop, and not dining in as much. Smart social gatherings - keeping distance, etc - can help mitigate any issues.

Ontario is in a great position now and this summer will start to feel more normal. But I'd be looking at making sure we're really cautious come September before next cold/flu season when this could really hit back hard.

Agreed ... we need borders open for business and jobs in Ontario especially but it likely causes da virus to come back again in better spread climates as you say in September/October/Nov ... lets all hope for a really hot and humid summer which extends well into September

 

[Gary Nylund]

Here are a couple of articles I thought were worth reading:

How Canada has bungled the COVID-19 endgame - Macleans.ca

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/australia-covid-19-long-term-care-1.5591912

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hot and humid doesn’t matter, look at southern US, Brazil etc

 

[nsleaf]

I assume yourre elderly or immune compromised? If us healthy people keep our distance from the compromised folks this won’t be a huge issue.

That's a huge if. Healthy people will still need to distance from each other or the spread will never stop.
If only is was that simple.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That's a huge if. Healthy people will still need to distance from each other or the spread will never stop.
If only is was that simple.

I hope we can get spread down to less than 5o new cases per day in GTA area fairly quickly ... then we have a really good statistical chance from that date to wipe it out here in 3 weeks as per one of my big actuary firms in city ... if we keep up current decrease rates we should be good by mid July

 

[kb]

I hope we can get spread down to less than 5o new cases per day in GTA area fairly quickly ... then we have a really good statistical chance from that date to wipe it out here in 3 weeks as per one of my big actuary firms in city ... if we keep up current decrease rates we should be good by mid July

Sadly this is how it works in a nutshell.

You want to make it look good? Do less testing.

You want to make it look bad? Do more testing and mark down multiple negatives as Covid confirmed.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Sadly this is how it works in a nutshell.

You want to make it look good? Do less testing.

You want to make it look bad? Do more testing and mark down multiple negatives as Covid confirmed.

Yeah that's why as guy above mentioned more important is to look at hospital cases and deaths as those are real solid numbers ... but of course TV and media too focused on new cases which as you say have quite a large error factor and testing quantity factor in them to be reliable ... i look at deaths and we are down from roughly 200 a day in early May to around 50 now so i think that shows we are on da downward slope of new infections ... in Canada we are now projected to have less than 8,500 deaths which is terrible for all those families affected RIP but much better than early numbers which showed us losing 11,000 people on da low end ...

 

[Golden_Jet]

Beijing went 2 months with no cases, now 137 yesterday