OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV

[NYSPORTS]

Considering we have no way to verify Chinese numbers...

I spoke to someone a couple weeks ago who is in Wuhan and they said they saw bodies burned in the streets. I think it’s fair to say we probably aren’t operating on 100% valid information here...

insane

 

[Machinehead]

Are you kidding? You’ve been ranting about Trump for days while ignoring every other politician and other nations involvement in this whole ordeal. It’s certainly fair to criticize Trump. I don’t think he’s done a great job here at all, but you’re definitely coming from the place of anti-Trump hysteria.

I called the governor of Florida a derogatory name twice today. I've railed De Blasio a dozen times. This is bullshit.

 

[NYSPORTS]

It wasn't in the city though. It was in my town in Dutchess county.

ok, i thought it was Manhattan. Glad you are safe.

 

[GordonGecko]

Based on what?

The soaring numbers already indicate that we've handled this the worst. And now that some measures are in place, the worst of it is likely already in the books or about to be.

At what point could the outlook possibly improve?

Impossible, the worst places will be the ones you hear the least about (Russia, Brazil, India, etc..)

 

[NYSPORTS]

I've yet to back down because I'm right.

I'm not blaming ONLY the president. Show me where I said that.

LOL

thanks.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Impossible, the worst places will be the ones you hear the least about (Russia, Brazil, India, etc..)

We’ve never had info from Russia. Brazil scares the heck out of me. Have they ever fought off any disease besides self medicating for malaria? India, I thought the same thing. 2nd to China in population, I can only imagine how insane that could get or already is.

(Edit, supposedly less than 2,000 in India so far)

 

[Machinehead]

Impossible, the worst places will be the ones you hear the least about (Russia, Brazil, India, etc..)

More baseless "the global deep state is out to get us" conspiracy.

And look, I'm not saying countries don't do "PR" but are you seriously naive enough to believe the United States doesn't?

 

[GordonGecko]

More baseless "the global deep state is out to get us" conspiracy.

And look, I'm not saying countries don't do "PR" but are you seriously naive enough to believe the United States doesn't?

You really have it in for the US, don't you. I'm more concerned about how we don't repeat the same mistakes the next time and how we mitigate the effects this time rather than going around blaming everyone. It's completely unproductive and one of the reasons Cuomo is getting so much praise, he's not just taking shots like DeBlasio is

 

[Machinehead]

You really have it in for the US, don't you. I'm more concerned about how we don't repeat the same mistakes the next time and how we mitigate the effects this time rather than going around blaming everyone. It's completely unproductive and one of the reasons Cuomo is getting so much praise, he's not just taking shots like DeBlasio

The US response to this pandemic has been abhorrent. We can't just not bring that up.

 

[Tawnos]

Without commenting anything about who deserves it, blame is *not* counterproductive for the future. It gives an indication of who should not be trusted to handle something like this next time. Just as who gets credit for a good response gives an indication of who should. If you're concerned about not repeating the same mistakes next time, it's important to know who made those mistakes.

 

[Ola]

I thought this was a really well written piece that talks through a lot of the issues you astutely hit on:

Coronavirus: The Zebra Swan | The American Spectator | Politics Is Too Important To Be Taken Seriously.

Unfortunately I am struggling to see a scenario where we can just stay 100% shut down and expect...civilization as we know it to keep functioning. We can print money so people can make rent but that isn't enough.

Yeah, its worrisome.

All I know is that -- in relation to this pandemic -- really small and isolated events can cause quite the disturbance of the economy. Over the years, I don't know how many articles I've seen reading something like "How the faraway crisis in X had a major impact on Y". It can be a rebellion in some province in Africa or a storm on your home land. Whatever. Now we are forced to pull the rug from underneath everything.

 

[Ola]

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

For those using Chinese "data" to prove their points, US Intelligence has reported that China concealed the extent of the virus outbreak, and provided fake numbers.

In other news, water is wet, the pope wears a funny hat, and bears do indeed sh*t in the woods.

To be honest, I think these reports largely is a smokescreen. Just a quick glance at the numbers tells us everything about how trustworthy they are:

(confirmed cases per 100k in the World as of yesterday)

Iceland is a country that really can isolate itself, and hence it really pays off for them to test a lot of people. They have tested more than most others. But still -- only -- 1.04% of their population has been tested so far (or as of a few days ago) (Everyone In Iceland Can Get Tested For The Coronavirus. Here's How The Results Could Help All Of Us.).

As can be expected, of the countries that has Covid-19 in the society the country that has done the most testing, has the best ratio of deaths/confirmed cases. Both the dividend and the divisor can be questioned. In Italy death rate in general is up a lot more than what the Covid deaths account for. Are deaths by Covid missed? It seems like it. But of course, with over half of the people infected with covid showing none to very mild symptoms, the number of confirmed cases will increase dramatically the more testing you do.

So in Iceland, that ONLY have tested just a little more than 1% of their population, the death rate is 0.59%. It surely in reality is much lower than that -- since if the other 99% of the population was tested, the number in the divisor would increase dramatically, right? Its however hard to predict how much since it takes 2-3 weeks for people to pass away, and death rate numbers could climb there too.

But assuming that the real death rate is 0.5% -- the US with 5k deaths would have 1 million cases, not today, but 2-3 weeks ago. Looking at how fast this thing is spreading, that means that at least 5-10 million should have it today in the US. If we look at Spain or Italy, their number of actual cases is several hundred times higher than reported.

Of course if's and but's can be added, but the US is reporting 250k cases while the actual number is 5-10 million, Italy and Spain's number of reported cases are of course even much more "misleading".

My point is, everyone's numbers are just the tip of the ice berg.

Then of course its a fair counter point to make that the US, Italy, Spain and everyone else haven't intentionally reported fewer cases, like China is believed to have done. But it still doesn't change the fact that we have no clue to what extent China have padded their numbers, and there is nothing indicating that they have done so to a significant extent. People can't just look at their number and say wow they have been tampered with a ton, they don't make sense. Nobody's numbers make sense.

 

[Khelvan]

Our president concealed the extent of the virus.

I agree. What does one have to do with the other?

Both can be, and are, true.

 

[Khelvan]

First, we are acting as if all of these numbers are accurate. Second, you realize this thing has been running amok throughout NYC. This thing wasn’t getting contained. So many factors go into something like this such as testing, geography, and our countries inability to follow rules.

It could possibly have been contained, or potentially at least mitigated, with proper testing and guidance given from the federal government. Other countries were able to do so. Hell, even where I live in California the curve is relatively flat because we shut everything down immediately.

How San Francisco is flattening the curve while NYC becomes a global coronavirus epicentre
(That link compares California's response with New York's)

If only the federal government were more concerned about containment and saving lives than what benefits the president, it could have done far more good for the country, including New York.

 

[egelband]

So I just went out to the store briefly for the first time in 2 weeks. I got two questions

1) Where can I find some of these masks where I'm not getting completely raked over the coals on the price ?
2) Do they have to be a special kind of mask or does literally anything covering your face help?

I'll hang up and listen

If you want to protect yourself you’d need a proper mask (not sure the type but it has to be form-fitting so no gaps) and probably goggles too.
If you want to simply do the good-manners thing, like they do in Japan, for example, any old mask will do. It just has to muzzle a cough or sneeze so you don’t infect anyone around you.

 

[eco's bones]

Trump on Coronavirus:

Jan 22--'We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China. It's going to be just fine'.
Feb 2--'We pretty much shut it down coming in from China'.
Feb 10--'dies with hotter weather'
Feb 12--'You know in April, supposedly (the virus) dies with the hotter weather'.
Feb 24--'The coronavirus is very much under control in the USA...stock market starting to look very good to me!'
Feb 25--'CDC and my administration are doing a great job of handling coronavirus'.
Feb 25--'I think that's a problem that's going to go away....They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we're very close to a vaccine'. He then went on to claim that in 2014 'nobody had ever heard of Ebola' and that the Ebola mortality rate 'was virtually 100%.'
Feb 26--he tells everyone that the coronavirus 'is a flu' and continues on with this prediction 'The 15 (cases) within a couple days is going to be down close to zero' when we were already up to 53 known cases. 'We're going substantially down, not up'--he said and then goes on to say 'the flu death rate is much higher than (taking a shot at a critic) Sanjay Gupta said'.
Feb 27--miracle day--'One day it's like a miracle....it will disappear'.
Feb 28--'We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical'. Later 'This is their new hoax' and 'We're totally prepared'.
Mar 2--'nobody knows the number of flu deaths' and a vaccine is 'coming relatively soon'. 'You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on Corona?'---'A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they're happening very rapidly'.
Mar 4--'If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands that get better just by, you know, sitting around and going to work---some of them go to work, but they get better.' Later he starts pointing the finger at Obama 'didn't do anything' for H1N1 and that Barack impeded testing, wrongly states that the 1990 flu killed 100,000 and wrongly says he thinks there was a coronavirus death in New York.
Mar 5--'I never said people that are sick should go to work'---'The United States....has, as of now, only 129 cases....and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep those numbers as low as possible' and that the virus only hit the US 'three weeks ago'.
Mar 6--(Azar saying there are no shortages of tests that day)--'I think we're doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down....a tremendous job at keeping it down'.....'Anybody right now and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They're there. And the tests are beautiful....the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good!'.....'I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it....Every one of these doctors said, 'How do you know so much about this?' Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for President'....'I don't need to have our numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault!'....'I didn't know people died from the flu! (Trump's own grandfather died from the flu). He goes on to say that the numbers in Italy are 'getting much better'--that our coronavirus numbers 'are lower than just about anybody' and that 'maybe' the coronavirus was improving US jobs numbers.
Mar 8--'We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on coronavirus'.
Mar 9--'This blindsided the World!'
Mar 13--'I take no responsibility.'---'National Emergency, two big words.'
Mar 15--'It's a very contagious virus, it's incredible, but it's something we have tremendous control of'.
Mar 16--'We've done a fantastic job from just about every standpoint'.---'We have a problem that, a month ago, nobody ever thought about' (he was first briefed on coronavirus in January).....speaking of his own coronavirus test 'I've been strongly tested'.
Mar 17--'I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a a pandemic'.
Mar 20---(after being asked by a reporter 'What do you say to Americans who are scared?)--'I say you're a terrible reporter, that's what I say. I think that's a very nasty question'. ......' I've been right a lot'....(on When will everyone who needs a coronavirus test be able to get a test?) 'No one is talking about this except you, which doesn't surprise me'.

So I'll cut off there--but really Trump's remarks on the virus were a joke from January on through the better part of March.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Speaking as a non-American, the political chaos and division that your media and now leadership has been ramping up to for so long, is not helping in the least.

I have very strong opinions about Trump and what he symbolizes, but for the moment I think you would all be better served just caring about your neighbour's well-beings. It's going to get much worse over the next few weeks, and bickering on a beleaguered ship isn't going to change that.

Stay safe, guys.

 

[NYR Viper]

So the species is just less stupid in all the other countries on the chart?

This is the epicenter. In a hundred years, historians will call this the American Virus. This is our problem. Something went wrong here that didn't go wrong in other places.

I'm sorry, do you really believe this to be a leadership problem or a problem ingrained in the American society that predates this administration? This is the PEOPLE not listening to proper advice.

Also, the comment on the governors from before, if your state governor, who is charge of MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, is that stupid an causing that much damage, then perhaps people should pay more attention to those political races and elect the right people. They are ELECTED officials.

 

[Chaels Arms]

6.6 mill new unemployment claims last week.

 

[NYR Viper]

I called the governor of Florida a derogatory name twice today. I've railed De Blasio a dozen times. This is bullshit.

As a Florida resident, our governor is acting like a COMPLETE IGNORAMUS

 

[motopanekeku]

If you want to protect yourself you’d need a proper mask (not sure the type but it has to be form-fitting so no gaps) and probably goggles too.
If you want to simply do the good-manners thing, like they do in Japan, for example, any old mask will do. It just has to muzzle a cough or sneeze so you don’t infect anyone around you.

Been wearing a bandana over my face in crowded places. I look like a bandito and feel good about it.

 

[Fireonk]

Speaking as a non-American, the political chaos and division that your media and now leadership has been ramping up to for so long, is not helping in the least.

I have very strong opinions about Trump and what he symbolizes, but for the moment I think you would all be better served just caring about your neighbour's well-beings. It's going to get much worse over the next few weeks, and bickering on a beleaguered ship isn't going to change that.

Stay safe, guys.

Easier said than done when everyone is stuck at home with nothing to do and a whole lot of stress.

 

[True Blue]

May 1 is incredibly optimistic. Most experts expect this to peak in late April to early May. Maybe in New York we're closer to late April than other places, but there's no way that I would feel comfortable being asked to go back into the office on May 1. Optimism is great and all, but there's a certain point where it becomes dangerous. Japan just tried to let people go back to work only to tell them that they lifted restrictions too soon, and everyone needs to go back home and stay there.

I am not speaking from optimism. I am speaking from reality. As I outlined earlier, the lasting effects of a prolonged isolation period will have repercussions that the world (not just the US) is catastrophic. From the toll on human beings, to the tolls on entire industries that can get wiped out. Which will lead to even more of a toll on human beings.

You may not be comfortable in those decisions, but again, this cannot become a case where the in the long term, the cure becomes worse than the disease.

And again, I believe that things will begin to open up in a trickle. I am sure that if an office is deemed to be able to be open again, most employers will still allow for people to work from home if they choose. But there will be those that come in. And there will be those that come in and after a week decide to go to the deli that they are used to. And so things slowly but slowly get moving again.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm sorry, do you really believe this to be a leadership problem or a problem ingrained in the American society that predates this administration? This is the PEOPLE not listening to proper advice.

Also, the comment on the governors from before, if your state governor, who is charge of MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, is that stupid an causing that much damage, then perhaps people should pay more attention to those political races and elect the right people. They are ELECTED officials.

It definitely has a lot to do with the "f*** you I do what I want" American culture and as I've said, I'm not blaming one person and I don't know why people came up with that notion.

That said, it doesn't f***ing help when Trump is on tv daily acting like this is the chicken pox. He is -I cannot stress this enough- the president of the United States. His words matter and he's accountable for the way this country responds to a crisis.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah, and it’s all a matter of time. Shut down completely for 1-2 months? It would create the biggest damage 2 to none that we ever have seen, but is it worth it to save lives? Of course.

But what if you have to shut down for 6 months? To some extent it’s a figure problem, the state can just “print” money (printing money is the same as loaning it), and if everyone does it, you could have a corona write off that the world probably would buy. They are scared to death of just taking a zero from all countries debts, because they fear people would loose respect for the fiscal system and start spending too much thinking that there always is a bailout around the corner. But this is a one time thing.

But besides what really is a numbers game (funding the economy of all economies, which can be done by just printing money and then reducing debt so that we don’t pass it on to the next generation) — 6 months would start to produce some really really ugly shortages and similar effects. It’s also practically impossible to just sponsor the business that needs it and not end up with significant sums going into the pocket of people that don’t need it. Like let’s say that the state picks up the bill — how? How do you accomplish that? Would 500k people be enough to fill out forms, review them and make the payments?

And things are shutting down. Metals, food, chemicals, personnel, education, it’s just an extremely impactful situation that — nobody — even remotely has a clue how it should be handled, what can happen and so forth,

Like history shows us with outmost clarity that humans can go wrong and bad things can happen. You don’t want to venture into completely unknown territory with a world in chaos, unless ... what exactly? A lot of things to think about...

The shut down will end. It has too. The toll on people and all walks off economics due to a prolonged period of isolation would be horrific. Printing money will happen anyway, but it will not solve unemployment rates that will make the great depression seem like Disney land. Nor will it take away the damage that is inflicted on people emotionally. And that is for those who will live. That does not account for spiked rates of suicide that will happen during prolonged isolation and post when they have to wait in a bread line and have no toilet paper in the house