Coronavirus - CoVID-19 - Part 3 - Arizona is kinda open now

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Coyotedroppings

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Jul 16, 2017
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I wonder about these "shitty people" that are often referred to, by a resident poster. Are they like the Tannen's? You know - Biff & Mad Dog.
 

_Del_

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“It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys. It's a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Hill, 61, told the Telegraph from his university laboratory, long emptied by the lockdown.
“We said earlier in the year that there was an 80 per cent chance of developing an effective vaccine by September.
“But at the moment, there’s a 50 per cent chance that we get no result at all.
“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining."
Exclusive: Oxford University Covid-19 vaccine trial has 50 per cent chance of 'no result'

Yeah, that's pretty bizarre...
 

MIGs Dog

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Jan 3, 2012
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Many have scorned the weekend partiers splashed across social media, calling them stupid or irresponsible. I think it has more to do with people not viewing COVID-19 as high risk. In my circle of neighbors, friends, and coworkers, which spans several states, I only know one person that's tested positive. The people hitting the beaches, boardwalks, and swimming pools are NOT crunching mortality numbers, rather it's their own experience with the virus and lockdowns that's driven them to say "meh."

 
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Sinurgy

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XKCD with the appropriately timed comic. Figured some might appreciate this, especially having had to hear me bring it up all the time.

confidence_interval.png
 
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MIGs Dog

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No lockdowns...no mass testing, but the Japanese do love their face coverings.

 

MIGs Dog

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Little known fact...dogs are better at EVERYTHING!

 
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Tom Polakis

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Many have scorned the weekend partiers splashed across social media, calling them stupid or irresponsible. I think it has more to do with people not viewing COVID-19 as high risk. In my circle of neighbors, friends, and coworkers, which spans several states, I only know one person that's tested positive. The people hitting the beaches, boardwalks, and swimming pools are NOT crunching mortality numbers, rather it's their own experience with the virus and lockdowns that's driven them to say "meh."



Thanks for posting that table. Looks like the death probabilities with COVID-19 are is based on actual data since the beginning of this year. Regarding drawing the conclusion that those small increases, the measures that were adopted has contributed to them being small, so the "meh" conclusion about lockdowns is fallacious.

Also regarding the conclusion that your increased death risk is "not very large," an increase of 25 percent or more above nominal for everyone above the age of 60 strikes me as "very large."
 

MIGs Dog

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an increase of 25 percent or more above nominal for everyone above the age of 60 strikes me as "very large."

I would agree it's significant. In actual people terms it means 5 out of a thousand in their 60s will die that would not have otherwise. If I'm over 60 and have health problems I would be somewhat concerned, but not panicking.
 

_Del_

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You've got to let me keep the panicking. It's the only thing keeping us alive.
 

MIGs Dog

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My question on the mask-wearing recommendations is "when will it end?" Do we need to get to zero new cases across the entire country? If not, then what is the threshold?

The people partying in the Ozarks and other areas probably don't see the need for masks because they have no experience with the virus; they don't know anyone that has been seriously ill or died. I live fairly close to the Ozarks. We have confirmed infections of 0.3% of the state population and deaths from COVID-19 of 0.007%.

The people need to be convinced the risk is much higher before they will be willing to submit to what appears to be government overreach and interference in their lives.

It's not just in the backwoods of Missouri that the people are fed up. A coalition of businesses in NY has pledged to violate the governor's order and reopen this week.


 
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Tom Polakis

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I would agree it's significant. In actual people terms it means 5 out of a thousand in their 60s will die that would not have otherwise. If I'm over 60 and have health problems I would be somewhat concerned, but not panicking.

It's amazing how wrong I often am when I try to guess the age of people on this board. I'm 58. My only significant health problem has been asthma, but it turns out that doesn't put me at a significantly higher risk.
 

TheLegend

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My question on the mask-wearing recommendations is "when will it end?" Do we need to get to zero new cases across the entire country? If not, then what is the threshold?

JMO but a vaccine would go a long way. There will always be a small portion who will cling to “being safe”.
 
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RemoAZ

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Mar 30, 2010
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JMO but a vaccine would go a long way. There will always be a small portion who will cling to “being safe”.

I hope we don't have to wait that long. I'm so tired of the panicking, hysteria, conspiracies and paranoia. Dealing with people at work already gets a lot harder when it gets hot. Layer on the government and media scaring the shit out of all the sheep and it's almost unbearable at times. If something scared me as much as some of these people seem to be scared, I'd just stay home. The general sheep would rather go out and find something to complain about. I have to keep reminding my self that I need my job. I don't want to deal with the mask bs at Costco so I just don't go. How hard is that? Some people go anyway looking for a fight. They get off on being a dick to people and the highlight of their day is writing a scathing Yelp review. I really can't stand people like that. Unfortunately that seems to be the norm instead of the exception any more.
 

MIGs Dog

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I hope we don't have to wait that long. I'm so tired of the panicking, hysteria, conspiracies and paranoia. Dealing with people at work already gets a lot harder when it gets hot. Layer on the government and media scaring the shit out of all the sheep and it's almost unbearable at times. If something scared me as much as some of these people seem to be scared, I'd just stay home. The general sheep would rather go out and find something to complain about. I have to keep reminding my self that I need my job. I don't want to deal with the mask bs at Costco so I just don't go. How hard is that? Some people go anyway looking for a fight. They get off on being a dick to people and the highlight of their day is writing a scathing Yelp review. I really can't stand people like that. Unfortunately that seems to be the norm instead of the exception any more.

We should be mentally prepared to live with COVID-19 absent a vaccine. The quickest a vaccine has ever been developed is 4 years. Considering the number of ongoing vaccine efforts, we should beat that...assuming a vaccine is even possible.

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year
 

TheLegend

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of
I hope we don't have to wait that long. I'm so tired of the panicking, hysteria, conspiracies and paranoia. Dealing with people at work already gets a lot harder when it gets hot. Layer on the government and media scaring the shit out of all the sheep and it's almost unbearable at times. If something scared me as much as some of these people seem to be scared, I'd just stay home. The general sheep would rather go out and find something to complain about. I have to keep reminding my self that I need my job. I don't want to deal with the mask bs at Costco so I just don't go. How hard is that? Some people go anyway looking for a fight. They get off on being a dick to people and the highlight of their day is writing a scathing Yelp review. I really can't stand people like that. Unfortunately that seems to be the norm instead of the exception any more.

That's the funny thing..... the media and government aren't purposely trying to scare the public. What you have is a Chicken Little mentality brought on by a couple of generations worth of people seriously lacking in common sense and "it's all about me".
 

MIGs Dog

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the media and government aren't purposely trying to scare the public.

The media does to an extent. They need to build suspense, drama, and fear to capture eyeballs. The old saying "if it bleeds it leads" is somewhat true. News about a hurricane that "could kill hundreds" always comes before the story about firefighters rescuing a kitten from a tree. The media always paints the bleakest picture, barely showing a shred of optimism. How many headlines this week used the term "grave milestone" as the U.S. passed 100k dead? They could have said "deaths are well under original estimates" instead, but that would be completely out of character.
 

TheLegend

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The media does to an extent. They need to build suspense, drama, and fear to capture eyeballs. The old saying "if it bleeds it leads" is somewhat true. News about a hurricane that "could kill hundreds" always comes before the story about firefighters rescuing a kitten from a tree. The media always paints the bleakest picture, barely showing a shred of optimism. How many headlines this week used the term "grave milestone" as the U.S. passed 100k dead? They could have said "deaths are well under original estimates" instead, but that would be completely out of character.

The problem facing the media comes with the monster we created in instant media and the internet.

Everyone with a cell phone is now a reporter. Screw the context and fact checking..... got to be first to get that video and story out on the net before anyone else. "We can always go back and do that la..... oh damn..... it's viral now after only 30 minutes....... cool."
 

RemoAZ

Let it burn
Mar 30, 2010
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Glendale, Arizona
I'm on the record on masks already, but if you go to Costco/wherever and bitch at the poor employee about their mask policy or how many people they let in to get your 15 minutes of internet fame, you are a vile human being.

That's what I'm talking about. I think it's BS so I don't go. End of problem (plus Fry's started carrying Egg Bites. Score!). There was a guy giving the girl working at Church's Chicken shit a few weeks ago asking why she wasn't wearing gloves. I stepped up and made my order to go without any fuss and he asked me if I was worried. I told him if I was, I would cook my own chicken. f***ing moron. Why give these people busting their ass for slave wages a hard time? Cook your own damn food.
 
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