Coronavirus - CoVID-19 - Part 3 - Arizona is kinda open now

[TheLegend]

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[MIGs Dog]

Part 3... YIKES

 

[MIGs Dog]

When is herd immunity achieved? This new paper suggests it's much lower than previous estimates and probably lies somewhere between 7% and 24%.

 

[_Del_]

AZ is finally publicly parsing some of the data.

Of 536 deaths in the last several months, 110 were under 65yoa. 20 deaths statewide were under 45yoa.

3.4% testing positive for antibodies. That number is new, and I don't see a total number of serology screens, so I'd be very careful with that. But if it holds roughly true, then the total cases in AZ right now would not be 11,000, it'd be almost 270,000, more than a quarter million cases. That would make Arizona's total IFR 0.19% unadjusted for age demo. It'd be higher for the elderly, and substantially lower for the younger.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Stop the madness and cancel the season.

 

[awfulwaffle]

Hope all of you and your family are healthy and safe. This is a difficult time for many, hang in there.

 

[BUX7PHX]

A friend of mine with some insight into college sports says that he is pretty certain college athletics are not happening before the close of 2020. This is in reference to getting a few beers in a former college coach that he is good friends with and is still pretty in the know.

Professional athletics will likely be different, but no one knows what that will look like.

 

[MIGs Dog]

A friend of mine with some insight into college sports says that he is pretty certain college athletics are not happening before the close of 2020. This is in reference to getting a few beers in a former college coach that he is good friends with and is still pretty in the know.

Professional athletics will likely be different, but no one knows what that will look like.

Most college sports outside of football and basketball have low fan attendance. Let the young healthy kids play, and have the fans sit 6 ft apart.

 

[SniperHF]

I'm pretty well convinced that by the time this is all said and done we'll come to the following conclusions:
Locking down NY (and surrounding areas) should have happened way earlier.
Nursing homes should have gotten way more attention everywhere(which I guess isn't a new problem....) ((and also they are awful))
Air travel being limited was a good thing and the effects on the economy from that being limited were probably worth it.
Same with sports/concerts.
Almost every other intrastate stay at home policy did closer to f*** all than have a huge impact.
We could have done a lot better job of threading those needles than we did, which of course isn't surprising but still caused huge problems.

 

[_Del_]

Almost every other intrastate stay at home policy did closer to f***ing us than have a huge *positive* impact.

 

[_Del_]

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19):


So I'm looking at these CDC figures for death totals by death certificate since February.

So far the CDC has officially compiled 306 COVID-19 deaths. (Yes, compiling lags reporting, that probably accounts for all or most of the discrepancy with the "projected" total. Bear with me).

306 COVID-19 deaths
1272 pneumonia deaths (154 overlap COVID-19 numbers)
102 influenza deaths
*notes say that pneumonia deaths aren't parsed with flu
17,861 total death certificates compiled to date.

Statistically, this looks like a blip. For every person dying to COVID-19, we're losing four or more to generalized pneumonia. For every three deaths to COVID-19, we're losing at least one to flu (more flu deaths could be hidden in the pneumonia column). For every COVID-19 death, more than 53 people die to other causes. And we can't say "it was the shut down", because the flu spread should obviously be impacted by those same factors.

Imagine if there was hysterical coverage of each flu or pneumonia death this year by the ghouls in the media. What percentage of the population would live in perpetual fear?

 

[Grimes]

Look at NYC.

 

[_Del_]

The same NYC with a massive population density compared to Arizona, where they lessened the number of trains running so they all ran jam packed, and where until this week, they forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients?

My argument wasn't that we couldn't make it worse. It's that statistically, the impact on Arizona has been negligible despite the doomsday depiction by the media. 1.7% of Arizona deaths over the period have been COVID -19 cases. 21 people under 45 have died here in the past several months.

 

[Grimes]

The same NYC with a massive population density compared to Arizona, where they lessened the number of trains running so they all ran jam packed, and where until this week, they forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients?

My argument wasn't that we couldn't make it worse. It's that statistically, the impact on Arizona has been negligible despite the doomsday depiction by the media. 1.7% of Arizona deaths over the period have been COVID -19 cases. 21 people under 45 have died here in the past several months.

You didn't even make it clear you were talking about AZ to be honest. I had to look at the report to see what the hell you were talking about. Also if you are going to talk about one of the more spread out cities in the country you should discuss the opposite too. (I'm extremely impressed by Texas as a side note). So what this report tells me is in areas that are very dense this can be very deadly. In situations where it spreads quickly and "force nursing homes to take COVID patients" this is extremely deadly. I feel for my friends and other fellow countrymen in NYC.

What about what is going on in Native American reservations? For every "the numbers don't look bad" there are communities that are devestated. Even if that means they "only" lost ten people.

 

[_Del_]

I think we're going to find the BMI factor at play on the rez.

Report: Native Americans in Arizona had nation's highest obesity rates


Diabetes in Navajo Youth


I think this is mostly genetic, not mostly behavioural differences. People who have descended from nations eating mesquite beans and deer, are now consuming high-fructose corn syrup and high-carb food (like everyone else today), and their systems aren't well suited for it. I grabbed the links off a quick search, so I'm not endorsing any of it beyond the well-documented health problems there.

 

[_Del_]

Somewhere in here, I linked to a NY study that had BMI>40 as the next highest risk factor after age.

Here's a more recent compilation of stats.

Latest evidence on obesity and COVID-19

 

[Grimes]

Thanks Del

 

[MIGs Dog]

Somewhere in here, I linked to a NY study that had BMI>40 as the next highest risk factor after age.

The media avoids talking about body weight these days because they are worried about being accused of fat shaming. All people should be treated with dignity and respect, but unhealthy lifestyles should be called out for how they contribute to mortality...even without COVID-19.

"Obesity is estimated to increase the cardiovascular mortality rate 4-fold"

What is the mortality rate for individuals with obesity?

 

[_Del_]

Thanks Del

And of course, those small numbers don't mean it's not a tragedy for those 562 people and families. But there were at at least 17,300 other tragedies in Arizona in that time frame.
Our numbers are going to climb, and people are going to say reopening was a huge mistake, but numbers were always going to climb after the lockdown. We aren't capable of locking down for 18 months to wait for vaccines to clear clinical trials. We've already done great damage to the economy. We're going to take our lumps one way or the other. People have been misled into thinking that this is a viable way to save lives. It's really not. It will be here a long time, and we better find a way to get used to it.

And we should reconsider our strategy as more data starts showing that A) the infections have been here far earlier than first recognized, so B) the rate of growth is much smaller than previously acknowledged, and C) total infections are much higher than previously recognized, so D) individual risk is much smaller than previously predicted (not 3-4%, but probably closer to 0.4-0.8%)

 

[MIGs Dog]

a tragedy for those 562 people and families. But there were at at least 17,300 other tragedies in Arizona in that time frame.

Reminds me of this exchange from the movie Collateral:
Vincent:
Max, six billion people on the planet, you're getting bent out of shape cause of one fat guy.
Max:
Well, who was he?
Vincent:
What do you care? Have you ever heard of Rwanda?
Max:
Yes, I know Rwanda.
Vincent:
Well, tens of thousands killed before sundown. Nobody's killed people that fast since Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Did you bat an eye, Max?
Max:
What?

 

[MIGs Dog]

An effective vaccine may never arrive, and the virus might never go away. Swell. Might as well get on with living then.

 

[Sinurgy]

People who have descended from nations eating mesquite beans and deer, are now consuming high-fructose corn syrup and high-carb food (like everyone else today), and their systems aren't well suited for it. I grabbed the links off a quick search, so I'm not endorsing any of it beyond the well-documented health problems there.

Why do you think their systems would be less suited for it than most people in general? I get the beans and deer comment but couldn't one could speculate similarly about most other groups who until relatively recently also had natural diets?

The media avoids talking about body weight these days because they are worried about being accused of fat shaming. All people should be treated with dignity and respect, but unhealthy lifestyles should be called out for how they contribute to mortality...even without COVID-19.

I think a big part of the problem is too many people are conflating honesty with brutal honesty. The latter is not you telling hard truths, it's just you being a dick. As a society we should be having frank but tactful conversations about the dangers of obesity.

And of course, those small numbers don't mean it's not a tragedy for those 562 people and families.

Reminds me of this Dr. that when giving disclaimers would always say "complications are extremely rare but it doesn't feel rare if it happens to you."

 

[Sinurgy]

An effective vaccine may never arrive, and the virus might never go away. Swell. Might as well get on with living then.

Pretty sure that's a reference to anti-vaxxers who are enabling some diseases to make a comeback.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Pretty sure that's a reference to anti-vaxxers who are enabling some diseases to make a comeback.

That might be part of it, but he also says COVID-19 may become endemic, a virus that we live with permanently like HIV.

 

[cobra427]

The media avoids talking about body weight these days because they are worried about being accused of fat shaming. All people should be treated with dignity and respect, but unhealthy lifestyles should be called out for how they contribute to mortality...even without COVID-19.

"Obesity is estimated to increase the cardiovascular mortality rate 4-fold"

What is the mortality rate for individuals with obesity?

Media doesn't want to talk about the dangers of obesity, too many people qualify. Obesity is a result of an unhealthy lifestyle, poor diet, and not enough exercise, for the majority of people. It all gets back to the same thing, take care of your body and it will take care of you, and help you fight off any virus, your risk would be extremely low.