Contracts for Athanasiou, Mantha & Bertuzzi

[MBH]

Thankfully Stevie ain't dumb enough to get swept in contract tacts with a kid who scores five goals in two games.
Trading AA is dumb.
But, you can have a one-line team if you want.

 

[Henkka]

Trading AA is dumb.

Trading AA in a smart trade to make the team better, is smart.

 

[MBH]

Trading AA in a smart trade to make the team better, is smart.

Well duh. Trading anyone to make the team better is smart.

 

[Winger98]

Emotions aside you will better be able to tell better in April...

Regardless of whether or not folks would do the trade, I think people are also going to continue selling Ristolainen short. He still plays a bunch of minutes in Buffalo, leads their D in ESIT, eats over two minutes of PK time, and goes out on the power play - though a chunk of that time seems to have been ceded to Dahlin. He might never be a Norris guy, but I think he's definitely a first pair D in the NHL.

 

[Henkka]

Regardless of whether or not folks would do the trade, I think people are also going to continue selling Ristolainen short. He still plays a bunch of minutes in Buffalo, leads their D in ESIT, eats over two minutes of PK time, and goes out on the power play - though a chunk of that time seems to have been ceded to Dahlin. He might never be a Norris guy, but I think he's definitely a first pair D in the NHL.

Ristolainen is quite much in the Seider mold. Seider still could have better offensive skills for 5-on-5 hockey. Ristolainen's former production has come almost only from PP. Now he is losing that because Dahlin is so much better on PP.

Idealistically we have Seider logging biggest/toughest minutes in the future, and plays on the 2nd PP (like Ristolainen), but he is more productive on that role than Ristolainen. And some specialist plays the 1st PP.

 

[kliq]

Well duh. Trading anyone to make the team better is smart.

Your statement was simply “trading AA is dumb”, had you said “trading AA is dumb if it’s a trade to make the team worse, I highly doubt anyone would disagree with you”.

I do feel AA will get the Drouin treatment based on the all the forwards we have about to come up, and his likely contract demands. If Stevie can find a Sergachev type deal, I say go for, but of course don’t give him away or make a trade in which we loose.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Your statement was simply “trading AA is dumb”, had you said “trading AA is dumb if it’s a trade to make the team worse, I highly doubt anyone would disagree with you”.

I do feel AA will get the Drouin treatment based on the all the forwards we have about to come up, and his likely contract demands. If Stevie can find a Sergachev type deal, I say go for, but of course don’t give him away or make a trade in which we loose.

Well right. Maybe it should have been specified, but the undercurrent of my "trade AA" and I feel most of anyone on this board on the "trade AA" tack is that the trade of AA would result in something of good value coming back to us. That it wouldn't be "Oh, you've got a 3rd round pick for us?", but an actual hockey trade to take a good asset from our pool of forwards and address a weakness on the back end. Or swap a guy who may not be a core piece for a younger player who might have a chance to be. Like if you don't think that AA will be worth it at 6.5M or 7M or whatever per (like you don't anticipate that he improves from 30g, 25a) that it would take to lock him up full time, you deal him for value.

Too much of saying "AA should probably be dealt for roster balance" gets turned into "I don't want him here, trade him for whatever".

If Andreas Athanasiou can pull a good young top 4D? I want to make that trade because I think there is greater value to the roster to having a really solid top 4d replace one of the ~5M salaries we are soon to have on the front end. I worry about if it lands at Mantha - 7, AA - 6, and Bert - 5 or something all for 5-6 years, because that starts really eating at our flexibility. I don't want to pay guys for long term just because they're the best we happen to have right now.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don't think SY is gonna fork over $8-9M+ for Mantha. I doubt that he spends more than $6-7M max. Something to consider re: Mantha, from NHL.com

"Mantha's shooting percentage of 29.4 percent through three games is not sustainable, nor is his average of 5.7 shots per game. He averaged 2.9 shots per game last season, when he scored 25 goals in 67 games on 198 shots. But if Mantha, who missed 15 games last season because of a broken hand, were to get his shots per game up to 3.5, which would result in 287 shots over the full 82 games, and his NHL career shooting percentage stayed at 13.2 percent, he would score 37 goals. Even if his shots per game stayed at his NHL career average of 2.53 and he scored at that same rate of 13.2 percent, he would have 26 goals over the final 79 games and finish with 31."
"Mantha should have every opportunity to score 40 this season if his average ice time per game (20:12) remains consistent"

 

[kliq]

Well right. Maybe it should have been specified, but the undercurrent of my "trade AA" and I feel most of anyone on this board on the "trade AA" tack is that the trade of AA would result in something of good value coming back to us. That it wouldn't be "Oh, you've got a 3rd round pick for us?", but an actual hockey trade to take a good asset from our pool of forwards and address a weakness on the back end. Or swap a guy who may not be a core piece for a younger player who might have a chance to be. Like if you don't think that AA will be worth it at 6.5M or 7M or whatever per (like you don't anticipate that he improves from 30g, 25a) that it would take to lock him up full time, you deal him for value.

Too much of saying "AA should probably be dealt for roster balance" gets turned into "I don't want him here, trade him for whatever".

If Andreas Athanasiou can pull a good young top 4D? I want to make that trade because I think there is greater value to the roster to having a really solid top 4d replace one of the ~5M salaries we are soon to have on the front end. I worry about if it lands at Mantha - 7, AA - 6, and Bert - 5 or something all for 5-6 years, because that starts really eating at our flexibility. I don't want to pay guys for long term just because they're the best we happen to have right now.

For the record, my comment was not directed at you at all.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Regardless of whether or not folks would do the trade, I think people are also going to continue selling Ristolainen short. He still plays a bunch of minutes in Buffalo, leads their D in ESIT, eats over two minutes of PK time, and goes out on the power play - though a chunk of that time seems to have been ceded to Dahlin. He might never be a Norris guy, but I think he's definitely a first pair D in the NHL.

Ristolainen was also on the ice for something like the most goals against in the entire league last year with terrible possession numbers. Ristolainen is not good. Trading Mantha for him would be terrible for us.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

For the record, my comment was not directed at you at all.

I didn’t think it was. I was, mistakenly I guess, trying to support your assertion.

I know that Redder is absolutely apoplectic at the mention of trading AA, but I was backing you up that trading him for a return worthy of trading him is a good idea. He’s not such a vital player that the Wings can’t move him. Just because he’s one of our best players right now does not mean that he should be locked on the roster.

The Wings have one guy that fits that bill. Dylan Larkin. The only way I’d ever deal Larkin is if for some reason Colorado didn’t want MacKinnon, Edmonton didn’t want McDavid, etc (aka, deals very very slanted in Detroit’s favor). Everything else on the roster? Sale should be and stay open for them

 

[Winger98]

Ristolainen was also on the ice for something like the most goals against in the entire league last year with terrible possession numbers. Ristolainen is not good. Trading Mantha for him would be terrible for us.

Third. Behind Provorov and Doughty, just ahead of Ekblad and Suter. Ristolainen eats the lion's share of minutes on a really bad team, his stat line - advanced or otherwise - is not going to look good. Even this season where Buffalo was supposed to have such a deep blueline, Bogosian and Montour are out and Risto is being asked to just eat hard minutes again.

I didn't weigh in on dealing Mantha for the guy, but a lot of Mantha deals tip depending on which Mantha shows up. Maybe he's making the turn this season, but maybe he's not. But even a high scoring winger is tough to turn into a first pairing D. A guy like Risto or Dougie Hamilton is probably what we should expect, a guy with some warts but also some positives, and they won't be cheap. Unless there is some outside circumstance (contract negotiations, cap issues, locker room issues, etc.) driving a move.

 

[Snuggs]

Yeah Idk, AA rubs me the wrong way and he's just not my type of player. Tunnel vision, etc, He'd be great on our third line and provides another threat right now outside our first but I just don't like him.

I'm one of those guys that still holding out hope for a block buster deal. For WHO? IDK really. Someone great. We've got the prospects, picks, and young talent currently to make something happen. Hopefully Yzerman is just waiting in the shadows for someone like Barkov, Barzel, Eichel, Hall, DARE I say McDavid.

Pipe-dreams, literally, I know this. It's what I'm hoping. Not a real expectation but... Maybe Yzerman can make it happen, likely not, but he's got some assets to pull the strings if an opportunity does come up with a young marquee like player.

 

[deca guard]

i say 8x8 for mantha . many say thats over payment without factoring in how much 8 is four years from now . and that manthas entire careers been played with weak dmen that are of no help setting him up with opportunitys . i also add some say mantha floats while ignoring the fire in his veins and his competitive nature / pride which drives him to win , that comes out in big games and makes champions . 8x8 all day .

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

i say 8x8 for mantha . many say thats over payment without factoring in how much 8 is four years from now . and that manthas entire careers been played with weak dmen that are of no help setting him up with opportunitys . i also add some say mantha floats while ignoring the fire in his veins and his competitive nature / pride which drives him to win , that comes out in big games and makes champions . 8x8 all day .

I'd go 8x8 for Mantha, but I wouldn't be happy about it. There would be no surplus value in that contract and very likely it could have negative value. That would be the tippy-top of his market value currently, so if I'm doing that, I'd much rather go 4 or 5x8 and have more flexibility to switch gears in year 6,7, and 8 if Mantha doesn't continue getting better. If I'm giving a guy 8 years, I want a discount over the term. Like years 1-3 may be overpayment, but the rest you make up that surplus value.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Thankfully Stevie ain't dumb enough to get swept in contract tacts with a kid who scores five goals in two games.
Trading AA is dumb.
But, you can have a one-line team if you want.

This post is a disjointed mess of three different points.

1) Mantha's contract negotiations are not going to be massively influenced by one huge game. Yzerman isn't an idiot. Mantha is going to get a fair offer based on the totality of his work. He's not going to get like 9M, and if he goes scoreless for the next 3 weeks, he's not going to get 4M.
2) Trading AA for the sake of trading AA is dumb. Trading AA now while he should have some big value because he's providing a ton of surplus value compared to his salary and is still an RFA once this current deal runs out to get an "AA" for the defense? That is actually a pretty good idea. Now is when you should look at dealing him or Mantha or Little Bert if you're planning on doing so for roster balancing sake. They will have more value now on cheap deals with RFA control than signing long term extensions at market value.
3) The Wings as currently constructed with or without AA are a one-line team. AA makes it so the third line can have a couple opportunities, but if you shut down B-L-M, the Wings are dead, AA or no AA. He's a great player, but he is not a player that can carry his own line all by himself and have it be a viable scoring line. He may get ~20-25 goals on a 3rd line, but he's doing that all by himself.

 

[MBH]

This post is a disjointed mess of three different points.

1) Mantha's contract negotiations are not going to be massively influenced by one huge game. Yzerman isn't an idiot. Mantha is going to get a fair offer based on the totality of his work. He's not going to get like 9M, and if he goes scoreless for the next 3 weeks, he's not going to get 4M.
2) Trading AA for the sake of trading AA is dumb. Trading AA now while he should have some big value because he's providing a ton of surplus value compared to his salary and is still an RFA once this current deal runs out to get an "AA" for the defense? That is actually a pretty good idea. Now is when you should look at dealing him or Mantha or Little Bert if you're planning on doing so for roster balancing sake. They will have more value now on cheap deals with RFA control than signing long term extensions at market value.
3) The Wings as currently constructed with or without AA are a one-line team. AA makes it so the third line can have a couple opportunities, but if you shut down B-L-M, the Wings are dead, AA or no AA. He's a great player, but he is not a player that can carry his own line all by himself and have it be a viable scoring line. He may get ~20-25 goals on a 3rd line, but he's doing that all by himself.

1) That's what I'm sayng.
2) Trading AA to improve? Yeah. Fine. You could say the same about Larkin, Mantha or Bertuzzi. Personally, I think the timing to trade them is kind of pointless. Who cares if they're about to get paid. If you want a good team, you're going to have good players who get paid. Besides, AA and Mantha have only one season left before they hit jackpot.
3) Wrong on several fronts.
For one, maybe only McDavid and Crosby can carry a line, by themself. And they aren't usually asked to.
As AA NHLers go, I doubt there were many who scored 20+ 5 on 5 goals last year with the kind of linemates AA had. If you know of any, please share.
Why you refer to AA has a third liner is beyond me.
He scored seven fewer points than Larkin at 5 on 5 in 230 fewer minutes, without having capable linemates. He scored 21 goals at 5 on 5 to Larkin's 16, in 230 fewer minutes, without having a Nyquist, Bertuzzi or Mantha on his line frequently.
And if you lose AA - you're ***that much*** further away from having more than one line.

Right now, AA gives us a hope in hell of secondary scoring. Without - that's another 30 goals of secondary scoring down the tubes.

It's not AA's fault Glendening and Hirose and company aren't legit top sixers.

 

[Fear]

Because of his age Mantha will need huge money to accept an 8-year deal. That would put him at 34 when his next contract starts, so he cannot expect to make any money on that one.

It all depends how this season goes. I would guess he would want 1mil for every 10 points he scores this year plus 1-2 mil more. So if he gets 75 points this year, 9mil.

 

[lilidk]

Anthony Mantha in the offseason: Pay me like Matthews

Matthews>>Mantha

 

[lilidk]

So who is the most important in this organization, take your guess. I'd say it's Yzerman. He is here to build a team and if someone like to get paid a lot he will be traded, and it don't matter what is your last name is. Just look at TB.

 

[Claypool]

So who is the most important in this organization, take your guess. I'd say it's Yzerman. He is here to build a team and if someone like to get paid a lot he will be traded, and it don't matter what is your last name is. Just look at TB.

Killorn? Callahan? J.T. Miller? Gourde?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

All three of them need to be locked up long term. Larkin, Mantha,Bert, AA and hopefully Zadina and Svechnikov is a decent top 6 if everything breaks right.

 

[FMichael]

Matthews>>Mantha

True - however this trend of paying guys for what they 'might' achieve is amusing.

If the Leafs don't win the Cup this season - then I dunno when they will when you look at their D, and how 3 of their top 4 will become UFAs after this season...

 

[Henkka]

True - however this trend of paying guys for what they 'might' achieve is amusing.

If the Leafs don't win the Cup this season - then I dunno when they will when you look at their D, and how 3 of their top 4 will become UFAs after this season...

That's how it goes in the future.

Stanley Cup winning windows will be short for every lottery-winning team, because those Top2 pick contracts will blow totally out of hands. You don't have any tail-end tricks anymore to sign them long-term and cheap. When they become expensive, that eats your team depth. So you basicly have to win, when the guys are still cheap.

Just like it went at Chicago, Toews/Kane/Keith/Crawford were quite cheap for the winning period, and when they did get their career contracts, their Cup window closed.

Just like our Cup window closed for Zetterberg and Franzen extensions. Now these are just happening at younger age. Highest salary instantly after ELC. I don't buy at all, that this is any kind of winning formula.

Same happened in every place. Career salaries for team stars did eat the winning team depth.

 

[Winger98]

That's how it goes in the future.

Stanley Cup winning windows will be short for every lottery-winning team, because those Top2 pick contracts will blow totally out of hands. You don't have any tail-end tricks anymore to sign them long-term and cheap. When they become expensive, that eats your team depth. So you basicly have to win, when the guys are still cheap.

Just like it went at Chicago, Toews/Kane/Keith/Crawford were quite cheap for the winning period, and when they did get their career contracts, their Cup window closed.

Just like our Cup window closed for Zetterberg and Franzen extensions. Now these are just happening at younger age. Highest salary instantly after ELC. I don't buy at all, that this is any kind of winning formula.

Same happened in every place. Career salaries for team stars did eat the winning team depth.

I think teams are just going to have to invert how they typically built their cap structures. Moving forward they will have to plan on (over?)paying the young guys but look for cheap vets to fill out key depth spots. So, the ideal would be to sign guys like Gator and Helm to cheap contracts over a summer, pair them with a kid like DLR and have a good looking fourth line. For a comparison, I'd look back to the Dallas Stars when they used older guys like Guy Carboneau, Brian Skrudland, and Mike Keane for quality forward depth at a fraction of the cost. A team with a good GM should be able to make it work having good players.

edit: should also say a lot depends on your definition of short. I mean, the Wings run was uncommonly long.