Contracts for Athanasiou, Mantha & Bertuzzi

[FMichael]

Mantha was injured for 15 games at last season. If you just add this season and that WHC and pre-season (14 extra games) to his last season stats, you got:

81 games, 41+32 = 73 points. This is his scoring during the last calendar year.

I like to keep it simple by just using his NHL stats considering he's not necessarily up against consistent NHL talent at the worlds, and pre-season.

''mantha is an extremely different case . theres less than 5 guys on earth with that size-coordination-ruggedness-skates-confidence-shot-fire in veins''
my outlook on the matter is that mantha physically is as rare and as valuable as it gets in a hockey player . if he were a 5'10'' 185lb perimeter player on a hot streak i wouldnt be saying this about a contract . i dont risk big stacks of chips like this on a drouin . but when a mantha comes along alarms go off that this guys odds of a monster career are high as anybodys out there his age . call me what you will for going all in in this case . at the same time i call you foolish for not looking to lock this type extremely rare hockey player in to a career contract .

Nobody is saying that he's of no value, but the slippery slope is when some claim he's the next best thing to come along since the toaster oven.

Let him finish the season, and have Yzerman, and Co figure out what he's worth.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Put the booze down pal. Mantha is more valuable then Larkin? Really you think so? Mantha is a good player he really is but I would caution overpaying him. He looks motivated for literally the first time in his career which magically so happens to be a contract year.

If Mantha scores 40 he is absolutely more valuable than Larkin. Without Mantha and Bertuzzi last year, do you think Larkin hits 70 points?

Hot take: If Mantha scores 40 some team is going to offer him 9 a year. Larkin signed for 6.5 is great, but the NHL is trending towards overpayment. You could very well see the Wings next year with 25 million tied up in Mantha, Larkin, AA, and Bert, which isn't a bad contract structure for your top 4 forwards. When a guy like Larkin gives you a huge hometown discount, you need to pay him back by giving him good players to play with. Yzerman did the same thing more than once as a player.

If you aren't willing to pay market value for players, you are committing to mediocrity.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

If Mantha scores 40 he is absolutely more valuable than Larkin. Without Mantha and Bertuzzi last year, do you think Larkin hits 70 points?

Hot take: If Mantha scores 40 some team is going to offer him 9 a year. Larkin signed for 6.5 is great, but the NHL is trending towards overpayment. You could very well see the Wings next year with 25 million tied up in Mantha, Larkin, AA, and Bert, which isn't a bad contract structure for your top 4 forwards. When a guy like Larkin gives you a huge hometown discount, you need to pay him back by giving him good players to play with. Yzerman did the same thing more than once as a player.

If you aren't willing to pay market value for players, you are committing to mediocrity.

Yeah, unless Mantha breaks 70 points, he's not getting anywhere near 9. And he's certainly not getting an offer sheet for that much. And no, even with 40 goals, Mantha would not be more valuable than Larkin. A great center is better than a great winger.

 

[FMichael]

Yeah, unless Mantha breaks 70 points, he's not getting anywhere near 9. And he's certainly not getting an offer sheet for that much. And no, even with 40 goals, Mantha would not be more valuable than Larkin. A great center is better than a great winger.

This right here.

Larkin does most of the work on the top line, and has the most responsibility of the 3...Mantha/Bert tend to be the recipients.

 

[Winger98]

Yeah, unless Mantha breaks 70 points, he's not getting anywhere near 9. And he's certainly not getting an offer sheet for that much. And no, even with 40 goals, Mantha would not be more valuable than Larkin. A great center is better than a great winger.

If Mantha gets near 40 goals, I think he'll be pretty close to 70 points. And considering his next contract will eat UFA years, an offer of $9m per wouldn't be crazy - especially if it's an offer sheet.

 

[Snuggs]

Anyone else still think Risto for Mantha was a legit trade idea?

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Mantha will break 70 points this year, easy.

Second hot take: Mantha will be the Wings first 50 goal scorer since 1994.

 

[Mlotek]

Any chance you think they might play the 'Nobody makes more than Larkin' card? Thats assuming Larkin ends up with the C.

Give Mantha essentially the same contract as Larkin. Tweak the caphit and term for Bert & AA's contract.

Highly unlikely.

Holland's signing of Larkin was the biggest steal for the Wings.

Depending how well Mantha does, even arbitration could net him 6.5-7 million.

 

[Retire91]

I just hope the wings are careful with cap space and don't get into franchise contracts just yet. Mantha is the only one of the 3 I could see getting elite franchise contract treatment. But maybe there is another contract inbetween before it gets there. But we have to remember Holland and Babcock held back pretty much everyone but Larkin. These players could beleive their big contracts are the next contracts and frown at bridge contracts, and maybe rightfully so.

Bertuzzi and AA I just want to be careful that we don't get into overpaying players again for playing roles that are bigger than their skill set because the team is too devoid of talent to play anyone else properly. This is the trap rebuilding teams fall into with bloated contracts. They pay 2nd and 3rd line players as first line players because that is the role they are played in, then when your real first line players come along you have trouble affording them or you have to trade away your depth to make room. I think Yzerman will be pretty good at managing this, we'll see.

 

[avssuc]

Mantha will break 70 points this year, easy.

Second hot take: Mantha will be the Wings first 50 goal scorer since 1994.

He would have to seek, at the very least, what Skinner got. A good problem to have I suppose. Yzerman could always flip him at the deadline if he thought Mantha wouldn't work out, but that's a tough spot.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

He would have to seek, at the very least, what Skinner got. A good problem to have I suppose. Yzerman could always flip him at the deadline if he thought Mantha wouldn't work out, but that's a tough spot.

The only circumstance under which I would trade Mantha is if he walks into Yzerman's office and tells him he's never going to sign with the Wings.

 

[Mister Ed]

I think Mantha signs a 6.65M x 6 year deal (8% of the cap), similar to a couple of deals :

Evander Kane : 8% of the cap (5.25M x 6 years in 2012)
Max Pacioretty : 7.75% of the cap (4.5M x 6 years in 2013)
Blake Wheeler : 8.71% of the cap (5.6M x 6 years in 2013)

 

[avssuc]

The only circumstance under which I would trade Mantha is if he walks into Yzerman's office and tells him he's never going to sign with the Wings.

Or he goes full Mitch Marner and Yzerman handles it similar to Drouin.

 

[NickH8]

We're not in a position to play hardball with our good offensive players. As long as their demands are not ridiculous, pay them. I'd rather overpay my good players by a few million than be a mediocre team forever.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Anyone else still think Risto for Mantha was a legit trade idea?

Emotions aside you will better be able to tell better in April...

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

We're not in a position to play hardball with our good offensive players. As long as their demands are not ridiculous, pay them. I'd rather overpay my good players by a few million than be a mediocre team forever.

I understand your POV & see why some would think that's the best course of action, but "overpaying your good players by a few Million" is never a good idea. If we overpaid all 3 (#39, 72, 59) by ~$2M combined that'd be tolerable at best, certainly far from ideal.

Mantha seems like he's really bought into the team concept & knows he may not have the same opp. w/another team, linemates. Last season, even during preseason, Mantha seemed to be pouting IMO, his body language etc. was of a player that knew it was gonna be a long, tough year & I'm sure Z retiring 1-2 yrs early had a good bit to do with that. He's definitely matured, you can hear it in his interviews & seems to be on the right path. That being said, I hope all 3 take team friendly deals, but I think AA will be the toughest contract.

Overpaying also sets a bad precedent for the future contracts, domino effect, like some of Kenny's deals.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Anyone else still think Risto for Mantha was a legit trade idea?

Nope?

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Anthony Mantha 8 x 8 Andreas Athanasiou 6 x 6.5 and Tyler Bertuzzi 7 x 5 would be my guess. Lil Bert should be the easiest to resign.

 

[Roy S]

This is probably Mantha at his peak- 25 years old is a typical peak year for hockey players. He'll have a couple more years at a similar level as this year and then likely start to level off slowly in his late 20's and continue a downward trend into his early to mid 30's. That's a typical career path anyway. I wouldn't mind a 5 year deal, if possible, with a pitch to Mantha that it opens an opportunity for him to cash in with another UFA contract at age 30.

The Wings big advantage is they have a #1 center locked in at $6 million through his peak years and for another 4 seasons (counting this one). The hardest thing to find is a legit #1 line and the Wings should have that for 4 more years in Bert-Larkin-Mantha and it will be at a reasonable cap rate. They need to become a Cup contender at some point in that timeframe. Zadina, Veleno, Ras and Svechnikov will all be hitting their prime years during that window too so it balances out well.

 

[Go Wings]

The easy comparable for Mantha is Kyle Connor who just signed long term for 8 years at 7.14 million. Connor has averaged over 30 goals a season for the last 2 seasons and plays on the top line in Winnipeg.

Those saying Mantha is going to get 9 million dream on.

 

[jkutswings]

Total shot in the dark: Mantha ends up with 35-40 goals, 70-75 points, and signs a 5 year deal worth $40M. Gives him both a great payday now and timing for one more good contract, and if he's putting up those numbers, Detroit is probably fine with paying him accordingly.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Emotions aside you will better be able to tell better in April...

You won't though. Even though Mantha isn't going to score 4 a night, he's still very easily a top line winger who has back to back seasons of 24 and 25 goals and still seems to have more potential to tap into.
Ristolainen is a 40-45 point D who's peripherals look abysmal. Sure, he's on a terrible team in Buffalo and stuff like +/- and Corsi aren't the be-all, end-all but those all look real bad for Risto.

Positional scarcity of good offensive talent from the back end makes Buffalo want a great return, but Mantha for Risto is a bad trade. Like without hesitation I can tell you it's a bad trade.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I understand your POV & see why some would think that's the best course of action, but "overpaying your good players by a few Million" is never a good idea. If we overpaid all 3 (#39, 72, 59) by ~$2M combined that'd be tolerable at best, certainly far from ideal.

Mantha seems like he's really bought into the team concept & knows he may not have the same opp. w/another team, linemates. Last season, even during preseason, Mantha seemed to be pouting IMO, his body language etc. was of a player that knew it was gonna be a long, tough year & I'm sure Z retiring 1-2 yrs early had a good bit to do with that. He's definitely matured, you can hear it in his interviews & seems to be on the right path. That being said, I hope all 3 take team friendly deals, but I think AA will be the toughest contract.

Overpaying also sets a bad precedent for the future contracts, domino effect, like some of Kenny's deals.

And yet it is Larkin's contract, which was also negotiated by Kenny and his team that will actually set the precedent for the Wings roster construction.

 

[wingfan]

I think Mantha gets paid 8x8, I think Bert lands somewhere around a 6x5 and AA gets shipped off.

 

[Henkka]

I think Mantha gets paid 8x8, I think Bert lands somewhere around a 6x5 and AA gets shipped off.

Same gut feeling in here.