Contracts for Athanasiou, Mantha & Bertuzzi

[MBH]

I wonder if Yzerman has had contacts with the three young guys who will be due substantial raises next year.
It's not too early to start thinking about what Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi will get in their next contract.
So, in that spirit, guess their contract.
For the sake of this exercise, let's assume a little growth in their stats.
Athanasiou - 32-25-57
Mantha - 29-27-56
Bertuzzi - 25-31-56

Comparables.
William Karlsson, 26, 24-32-56. 8x$5.9M
Mark Stone (UFA), 27, 33-40-73. 8x$9.5M
Teuvo Teravainen, 24, 21-55-76. 5x5.4M
Jake Guentzel, 24, 40-36-76. 5x$6M
Yanni Gourde, 26, 22-26-48. 6x$5.167M

Athanasiou is just turned 25. Mantha will be 25 in a month. Bertuzzi is 24.
So AA and Mantha will be negotiating for their 26-year-old contract, basically.
The Teravainen deal is freaking awesome.
Guentzel's deal, for 76 points, looks awesome too. Though, how much of that is Crosby factor? The Gourde deal looks stupid. Stone is just there because his age isn't far off. And it's not inconceivable that AA or Mantha might hit a number like that.

I wonder if that Karlsson deal sets the pattern for AA and Mantha.
8x5.5 to $6M for each guy?
That takes them to 34 years old.
If Bert does the same thing, he might be worth the same deal.

Click to read more...

 

[deca guard]

priority #1 - bertuzzi ! very smart all 200' . a spirited scrappy player that always is making little but important plays that dont show up in stats but they prevent opponant chances in our end and create redwing chances in opponant end . very good at making plays that get us chances . ide offer him 8X6.75 easily .

 

[Gniwder]

priority #1 - bertuzzi ! very smart all 200' . a spirited scrappy player that always is making little but important plays that dont show up in stats but they prevent opponant chances in our end and create redwing chances in opponant end . very good at making plays that get us chances . ide offer him 8X6.75 easily .

Is that your version of the Abdelkader special? He hasn't hit 50 pts yet and you want to give him $6.75? Overpaying guys like Bertuzzi now means not enough cap space for elite talent later

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not too much term for AA. 5 years max imo. 4 years probably perfect.

Not too much cap hit for Bert. He's extremely valuable for what he brings but the key is to get that good value, because he won't likely put up the biggest numbers. I'd be fine with 8 years though.

I feel good about paying Mantha both money and term. I think his numbers could explode when our team improves.

AA: 4x5M

Bert: 7x5M

Mantha: 7x7M

 

[Claypool]

Not too much term for AA. 5 years max imo. 4 years probably perfect.

Not too much cap hit for Bert. He's extremely valuable for what he brings but the key is to get that good value, because he won't likely put up the biggest numbers. I'd be fine with 8 years though.

I feel good about paying Mantha both money and term. I think his numbers could explode when our team improves.

AA: 4x5M

Bert: 7x5M

Mantha: 7x7M

Yeah...AA's agent walks away from that and asks for a trade.

All three should get no more than five years each in the $5-6 million each.

 

[Oddbob]

How on earth has Bertuzzi earned anything near 6.75 a year?????? He had a good season, but he still only had 47 pts and only 1 season of that. Also, he doesn't seem to me anyways as someone that will do more than 50 or so. He gets very streaky offensively so far, so if he consistently put up 50 pts with his physical style we should be very happy, and that is not worth Larkin money.

I think if you sign Bert long term, no more than 5-5.5 on 6+ years, preferably 4.5-5, and if he signs for less years the dollars goes under 5.

AA is legit scary for me, as I think he is going to get a large enough deal that I will hate it immediately. Hopefully 6X6 at most.

Mantha I think gets 6 or 7 years at 6-7 per season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah...AA's agent walks away from that and asks for a trade.

All three should get no more than five years each in the $5-6 million each.

It's a ballpark. You think he asks for a trade if we offer 4x5M, but not if we offer 5x5M?
If he improves his numbers I'm comfortable giving him a bit more but currently we are talking about a guy with one 50 point season, who has displayed very inconsistent play and an ability to disappear completely for stretches.

Long contracts could benefit us a lot here I think. We wouldn't want to be forced to re-sign Mantha/Bert in the middle of their prime years on a potentially very good team (which boosts their numbers).
AA is the biggest risk imo, which is why I'd want to limit that contract term.

 

[Peter Tosh]

If it was up to me, AA and Mantha would be on the trading block given the right price. I don’t like the fact that AA was holding out last time his contract was negotiated and he claimed he would go to Russia. Mantha has still got much to prove before I would trust him long term. IMO, best case scenario is both of them having career years now when their contracts are up, and we deal them before they get comfortable and fat. Bertuzzi seems to have a better attitude

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Bert 7x4 starting offer, and negotiate... probably end up 5x4.5-5
Mantha 5x6 starting offer (just a shade lower than Larkin)... probably end up close to that.
AA have him on the block. Out of the three, I think he has the best "value trading vs value keeping" rating, as in he would give the best return for the risk of trading him. Bertuzzi wouldn't give as much and Mantha I'm more worried about making us really really regret trading him.

Also, I don't want to sink 18M into those three guys. Package AA and something else of material worth and maybe we get that top pairing D we are looking for.

Basically, I think they should try their best to keep Bertuzzi and one of Mantha/AA and then deal the other for a defensive upgrade. So, if they deal Mantha instead, flip his starting offer to AA.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

How on earth has Bertuzzi earned anything near 6.75 a year?????? He had a good season, but he still only had 47 pts and only 1 season of that. Also, he doesn't seem to me anyways as someone that will do more than 50 or so. He gets very streaky offensively so far, so if he consistently put up 50 pts with his physical style we should be very happy, and that is not worth Larkin money.

I think if you sign Bert long term, no more than 5-5.5 on 6+ years, preferably 4.5-5, and if he signs for less years the dollars goes under 5.

AA is legit scary for me, as I think he is going to get a large enough deal that I will hate it immediately. Hopefully 6X6 at most.

Mantha I think gets 6 or 7 years at 6-7 per season.

Little Bert isn't getting anywhere near 6. If you're giving him max term now... it'll be a deal like those to the young, unproven D. The 7x4-4.5 Where it gives them 28-32M guaranteed and it gives you an AAV that will be a steal by year 2. Otherwise, if you bridge Bert at like 2x3 right now, 6.75 would probably be the highest his contract would go if he had two great bridge years.

I wouldn't want to bridge Mantha and AA again because they're rapidly approaching UFA and they look to be breaking out so those contracts would get scary big for the players they are.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Athanasiou 4 years at 5.5-5.75

Bertuzzi 6 years at 3.8 - 4.25 f possible

Mantha is really dependent on his season.

 

[deca guard]

i dont rate a player by just his points . tuzzi only got 50 so hes only worth so much ? say mantha a 70 point player i see it as the things tuzzi does that mantha dont make tuzzi worth as much . theres alot more than points to a players game and tuzzi the classic type player whose worth isnt indicated by points . a very smart and gritty hockey player who grew up on rinks with expert advice his whole life and that knowledge shows in games , very high hockey iq . if mantha and aa had that quick thinking / iq with their bodies theyd be superstar level . yes maybe 6.75 high , but i was thinking about what 6.75 is in 4 years and the last 4 years of tuzzi contract ? it might turn into a huge bargain for wings .

 

[NickH8]

i dont rate a player by just his points . tuzzi only got 50 so hes only worth so much ? say mantha a 70 point player i see it as the things tuzzi does that mantha dont make tuzzi worth as much . theres alot more than points to a players game and tuzzi the classic type player whose worth isnt indicated by points . a very smart and gritty hockey player who grew up on rinks with expert advice his whole life and that knowledge shows in games , very high hockey iq . if mantha and aa had that quick thinking / iq with their bodies theyd be superstar level . yes maybe 6.75 high , but i was thinking about what 6.75 is in 4 years and the last 4 years of tuzzi contract ? it might turn into a huge bargain for wings .

Bertuzzi is a good third wheel on a scoring line, like Abdelkader was. He doesn't drive play, like Abdelkader didn't. He's been streaky, like Abdelkader. You're advocating for the Abdelkader contract 2.0 without realizing it. If Bertuzzi wants too much we trade him because we cannot afford to get salary tied up on our role players again.

 

[deca guard]

Bertuzzi is a good third wheel on a scoring line, like Abdelkader was. He doesn't drive play, like Abdelkader didn't. He's been streaky, like Abdelkader. You're advocating for the Abdelkader contract 2.0 without realizing it. If Bertuzzi wants too much we trade him because we cannot afford to get salary tied up on our role players again.

tuzzi is so much better than abdelkader it aint funny . tuzzis smarts n grit went a long way in helping larkins game last year , and manthas too who woulda got 30 if not injured . tuzzi is a top level glue guy on a scoring line . i put tuzzi 2nd to larkin in long term worth on the current roster , though hronek could pass him this year

 

[MBH]

Not too much term for AA. 5 years max imo. 4 years probably perfect.

Not too much cap hit for Bert. He's extremely valuable for what he brings but the key is to get that good value, because he won't likely put up the biggest numbers. I'd be fine with 8 years though.

I feel good about paying Mantha both money and term. I think his numbers could explode when our team improves.

AA: 4x5M

Bert: 7x5M

Mantha: 7x7M

If AA hits 30 goals again, no chance.

 

[Flowah]

Not too much term for AA. 5 years max imo. 4 years probably perfect.

I'd prefer to give AA term. I don't think his speed is going to fall off a cliff at 30. He's been a fantastic goal scorer for 2 years now so I don't think it's a flash in the pan situation. To me, 4 years sounds like "we're going to trade you in the last year for something" which is about when I expect to be competing again which sounds like we don't expect him to be part of that team.

Because signing him to *another* contract with term at age ~30 is going to be expensive and risky for someone who relies so much on his physical gifts. I'd rather give him another couple years now or if we really don't think he's part of the team going forward, trade him while his value is highest. I would *think* that would be now after he's put up a couple of good goal scoring seasons on a bad team while still pretty young.

 

[MBH]

If it was up to me, AA and Mantha would be on the trading block given the right price. I don’t like the fact that AA was holding out last time his contract was negotiated and he claimed he would go to Russia. Mantha has still got much to prove before I would trust him long term. IMO, best case scenario is both of them having career years now when their contracts are up, and we deal them before they get comfortable and fat. Bertuzzi seems to have a better attitude

What's wrong with holding out and playing somewhere else?
Seriously.
You're supposed to just accept whatever your employer offers?

 

[MBH]

Bert 7x4 starting offer, and negotiate... probably end up 5x4.5-5
Mantha 5x6 starting offer (just a shade lower than Larkin)... probably end up close to that.
AA have him on the block. Out of the three, I think he has the best "value trading vs value keeping" rating, as in he would give the best return for the risk of trading him. Bertuzzi wouldn't give as much and Mantha I'm more worried about making us really really regret trading him.

Also, I don't want to sink 18M into those three guys. Package AA and something else of material worth and maybe we get that top pairing D we are looking for.

Basically, I think they should try their best to keep Bertuzzi and one of Mantha/AA and then deal the other for a defensive upgrade. So, if they deal Mantha instead, flip his starting offer to AA.

Trading AA or Mantha isn't a bad idea.
But you have to get value in return.
And not many guys are trading valuable defensemen or centers for wingers.
Maybe you get a right-handed winger.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

tuzzi is so much better than abdelkader it aint funny . tuzzis smarts n grit went a long way in helping larkins game last year , and manthas too who woulda got 30 if not injured . tuzzi is a top level glue guy on a scoring line . i put tuzzi 2nd to larkin in long term worth on the current roster , though hronek could pass him this year

You say that now... but if you sign him to the contract you're posturing for, you'll hate it by year 2.

Feels weird to say, but Abdelkader is a much better player than you're giving him credit for being. A big part of what made Abby good (and it's not the fact that he was a good backboard) was the ability to be chippy and annoying to the other team. Then they started calling tighter all the stuff he did. Abby's contract is inexcusable, but he's not worthless.

Bertuzzi is a top line like 2008 Cleary was a top line guy. Bertuzzi is literally 2008 Dan Cleary. Which isn't a bad thing. That's a damn good player. It's also not a player that you sink a top 6 salary into.

And no. Just no.

Larkin.
Hronek
Zadina
Veleno
Cholowski
AA

Bertuzzi is a fabulous glue piece and just an amazing find for Detroit in the 2nd round. But if he's one of the best players on the roster in two years... My god, the Red Wings are going to be a terrible team.

 

[MBH]

Bertuzzi is a good third wheel on a scoring line, like Abdelkader was. He doesn't drive play, like Abdelkader didn't. He's been streaky, like Abdelkader. You're advocating for the Abdelkader contract 2.0 without realizing it. If Bertuzzi wants too much we trade him because we cannot afford to get salary tied up on our role players again.

Bertuzzi is a better offensive player than Abdelkader. Better hands. WAY better passer. He thinks the game well.
What I disagree with is the notion that Bertuzzi is a 200-foot player. He's not demonstrated much ability in the defensive zone thus far. And I think if he did, he'd be on the PK.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

What's wrong with holding out and playing somewhere else?
Seriously.
You're supposed to just accept whatever your employer offers?

No... but when you're looking outside of the current league you're in to a league that doesn't have a salary cap... it's dirty pool. There is a reason why that's not standard operating procedure. Kind of like how offer sheets aren't standard operating procedure in the NHL either. Ferris knew it was dirty pool. Holding out is fine, use your leverage. But when everything is based off of comparables for RFA deals and you have several dead nuts comparables out there at a certain level, it's dirty pool to look into a different league without a cap.

And to clarify a little bit of that first sentence... as an RFA? You kind of are supposed to accept what is offered if the comparables are there to support it. That is literally what going to arbitration will do. You'll say "I want to be paid like this 3M player who scored 20 goals." And the team comes back, "we want to pay you like this 1.5M player who scored 15 and was a trainwreck defensively. " That's pretty much how most RFA negotiations tend to go.

 

[MBH]

You say that now... but if you sign him to the contract you're posturing for, you'll hate it by year 2.

Feels weird to say, but Abdelkader is a much better player than you're giving him credit for being. A big part of what made Abby good (and it's not the fact that he was a good backboard) was the ability to be chippy and annoying to the other team. Then they started calling tighter all the stuff he did. Abby's contract is inexcusable, but he's not worthless.

Bertuzzi is a top line like 2008 Cleary was a top line guy. Bertuzzi is literally 2008 Dan Cleary. Which isn't a bad thing. That's a damn good player. It's also not a player that you sink a top 6 salary into.

And no. Just no.

Larkin.
Hronek
Zadina
Veleno
Cholowski
AA

Bertuzzi is a fabulous glue piece and just an amazing find for Detroit in the 2nd round. But if he's one of the best players on the roster in two years... My god, the Red Wings are going to be a terrible team.

Abdelkader, at his peak, should have been a third line winger who PKd and scored 12-15 goals.
Abdelkader today should be a 4th line winger who PKs.

The one thing Abdelkader has in his favor is that he supresses goals.
His goals against/60 on the PK is 6.48. Best among wings forwards with 100 minutes played over the last 3 years.
Helm is at 9.47 by comparison.

His even-strength GA is a little worse than middle of the road for Detroit.

Dylan Larkin, by the way, has an awful GA/60.
3.31/60. Only Frk (3.39) is worse over the last three years.
Mantha (2.61) is among the best.

 

[Flowah]

No... but when you're looking outside of the current league you're in to a league that doesn't have a salary cap... it's dirty pool. There is a reason why that's not standard operating procedure.

It seems pretty standard operating procedure. Russian players use the KHL as leverage all the time.

There's 100% nothing wrong with it. GMs know these guys are competitive and want to play with the best. That's the NHL. It's balanced with wanting the most money, as everyone on the planet wants. Players know that. GMs know that. It's just negotiation. I see absolutely nothing "dirty pool" about that.

 

[MBH]

No... but when you're looking outside of the current league you're in to a league that doesn't have a salary cap... it's dirty pool.

I disagree. No contract? You can take up backgammon if you want.

And to clarify a little bit of that first sentence... as an RFA? You kind of are supposed to accept what is offered if the comparables are there to support it. That is literally what going to arbitration will do. You'll say "I want to be paid like this 3M player who scored 20 goals." And the team comes back, "we want to pay you like this 1.5M player who scored 15 and was a trainwreck defensively. " That's pretty much how most RFA negotiations tend to go.

That might be standard operating procedure, but that's not how negotiating works. I'm looking forward to the day when an NHL RFA actually goes and plays in Europe.
Though, I don't think its too likely, now, with the way the cap is finally shifting to young players.

 

[Oddbob]

i dont rate a player by just his points . tuzzi only got 50 so hes only worth so much ? say mantha a 70 point player i see it as the things tuzzi does that mantha dont make tuzzi worth as much . theres alot more than points to a players game and tuzzi the classic type player whose worth isnt indicated by points . a very smart and gritty hockey player who grew up on rinks with expert advice his whole life and that knowledge shows in games , very high hockey iq . if mantha and aa had that quick thinking / iq with their bodies theyd be superstar level . yes maybe 6.75 high , but i was thinking about what 6.75 is in 4 years and the last 4 years of tuzzi contract ? it might turn into a huge bargain for wings .

Larkin is much much better than Bertuzzi, and he just locked in longer term for that money. Bertuzzi is not even close to the same value as Larkin and don't even try to suggest as such. Everyone knows there is more than just points to hockey players, that doesn't make Bertuzzi worth anymore than 5.5 at most per and that is max at this point.