Contracts for Athanasiou, Mantha & Bertuzzi

[Flowah]

I really have no idea how players think on this, but would a longer term contract bring the AAV down for some of these guys?

They're not in the Marner situation where they're sitting on a LOT of prime years to come. Marner is 22. Of course Marner could want a shorter deal to put him to 25-26 and still get PAID.

AA is already 25. Mantha is like a month younger than him. Anything longer than 2 years and they're basically out of the typical prime year range. If they get a 7-8 year deal, would they come down on the AAV? If they would, I would pull the trigger on at least one of them, probably Mantha given his underlying numbers. The cap tends to go up in the long run. Giving term with a lowered AAV isn't going to be that bad in the later years where you expect them to decline. They're both damn good players. You could do worse than locking up solid middle6 talent, potentially top line talent in Mantha, for long term to get a reduced AAV, even if only slightly.

 

[Winger98]

Good post.
What's your take on this:
Would you rather have contracts that end at 32 or 34 years old?
I'm kind of thinking 34.
A player could still have a kick ass season at 32 and fool you into another 5-6 year deal.

Unless that player is something special, I'm not sure I'd be up for giving them a 5-6 year deal regardless of the season they had.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Good post.
What's your take on this:
Would you rather have contracts that end at 32 or 34 years old?
I'm kind of thinking 34.
A player could still have a kick ass season at 32 and fool you into another 5-6 year deal.

Realistically, that doesn't at all matter. Once you get past 30, you should be looking at keeping guys on short term deals. You run into a lot more issues giving term of any sort above three years to 30+ players. Basically, there are very very few exceptions to this and it would be clear as day who these exceptions are as you're negotiating with them.

If a 32 year old's season "fools" you into a 5-6 year deal, you're an idiot.

 

[MBH]

Realistically, that doesn't at all matter. Once you get past 30, you should be looking at keeping guys on short term deals. You run into a lot more issues giving term of any sort above three years to 30+ players. Basically, there are very very few exceptions to this and it would be clear as day who these exceptions are as you're negotiating with them.

If a 32 year old's season "fools" you into a 5-6 year deal, you're an idiot.

Nielsen was 32 when he signed that deal.

 

[Hammettf2b]

priority #1 - bertuzzi ! very smart all 200' . a spirited scrappy player that always is making little but important plays that dont show up in stats but they prevent opponant chances in our end and create redwing chances in opponant end . very good at making plays that get us chances . ide offer him 8X6.75 easily .

what in the world

 

[Flowah]

Unless that player is something special, I'm not sure I'd be up for giving them a 5-6 year deal regardless of the season they had.

But it's also the age where you're more tempted to try and keep them around. You tell yourself "I'll just trade them if they deteriorate too much." At 32 the player wants more too. They think they have a lot left in the tank. Versus 34 where they might be more realistic about having only a couple years left and agreeing to a 1-2 year deal.

Once you get past 30, you should be looking at keeping guys on short term deals.

What's a "short term" deal. I don't see many 30-31 year olds signing for 1-2 years. They're still "greedy" at that age. They still want the term. They still do at 34 as well but less so I think.

 

[MBH]

I really have no idea how players think on this, but would a longer term contract bring the AAV down for some of these guys?

Hard to say, because you're buying UFA years. Theoretically, that should raise the AAV.
But I suspect that the security of a life-time deal (6 to 8 years at $6M is more than enough to live on) might convince them to reduce the AAV a bit.

 

[MBH]

But it's also the age where you're more tempted to try and keep them around. You tell yourself "I'll just trade them if they deteriorate too much." At 32 the player wants more too. They think they have a lot left in the tank. Versus 34 where they might be more realistic about having only a couple years left and agreeing to a 1-2 year deal.

What's a "short term" deal. I don't see many 30-31 year olds signing for 1-2 years. They're still "greedy" at that age. They still want the term. They still do at 34 as well but less so I think.

I just think if you sign Mantha or AA to an eight year deal now at $6M....you've bought the remainder of their productive years.
26-34.
After that? You can sign them to 2 and 3 year deals maybe. Or maybe let them walk.

Now, if you sign them for 4 or 5 years.
Now you're looking at them hitting free agency at 30-31. At that age you might need to sign them to a 6-7 year deal that takes them to 36-38.
And it's almost guaranteed you're overpaying on the last 3-4 years of the deal.
And that entire deal will be UFA years, so you might be paying a premium. Maybe a lot more than $6M.

And if you don't pay them, they might walk away for nothing.

 

[Winger98]

But it's also the age where you're more tempted to try and keep them around. You tell yourself "I'll just trade them if they deteriorate too much." At 32 the player wants more too. They think they have a lot left in the tank. Versus 34 where they might be more realistic about having only a couple years left and agreeing to a 1-2 year deal.

You are tempted to keep them around, but the GM has to be honest about what signing them to a long term/big cap deal does to the organization at that point. I think it very rarely makes sense outside of a very select few.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I got at it a little bit earlier with Bertuzzi. But I would ask this, what are our issues with Mantha and Athanasiou to date? Why might our new manager be hesitant to talk contract?

I think Yzerman given his history and what we know about them isn't going to be as forgiving of their compete levels as Holland was even with the dearth of talent. It is something Stevie didn't put up with as a leader of the team either, chucking Primeau and others out of town that had that question mark. We shall see. I think both guys can be big pieces, but if they go through one of their 10 game I don't give a crap stretches we have seen, well Yzerman might ship one as a point to the rest of the guys and maximize the asset before locking in on term a guy he doesn't want doing that at points of a season in his long-term vision.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don't think I'd sign any of these guys beyond age 30, so no way in hell I'm giving any of them 8 year deals.

My ideal scenario is keep Mantha on Larkin's wing in order to continue to inflate his stats. Trade Mantha before the trade deadline. He's the type of player who isn't going to age well. Get a good d-man prospect and a first rounder in return for Mantha in his absolute prime.

Next summer you offer AA and Bert 4 year deals. I'd pay a little extra to get AA to agree to a 4 year deal, maybe 4 x 5.75. With Bert I'd do something similar, 4 or maybe 5 years and see if you can get him for 4 or 4.25 per year.

That solidifies a decent chunk of your top 6 forward group through the rebuild. It allows you to see what you have in Veleno and Zadina. Trading Mantha gives you 1 maybe 2 more shots at developing a good, young d-man who will be coming into his own when we are eventually good again.

 

[FMichael]

Not too much term for AA. 5 years max imo. 4 years probably perfect.

Not too much cap hit for Bert. He's extremely valuable for what he brings but the key is to get that good value, because he won't likely put up the biggest numbers. I'd be fine with 8 years though.

I feel good about paying Mantha both money and term. I think his numbers could explode when our team improves.

AA: 4x5M

Bert: 7x5M

Mantha: 7x7M

Mantha is nowhere near worth $7 million per season...I honestly don't see anyone making more than Larkin at this point in time.

 

[deca guard]

Am a big fan of all three and want to keep them all*(see below)

Would like to see all the deals done before the this season starts, although I realize that's not likely to happen. Therefore, this is what I would propose.

Both Mantha and AA can be extended for 4 yrs, thru to the 24/25 season(one yr after Larkin becomes a UFA). AAV for both is $5-6 mil per(Larkin is the best player/talent on the team and his $6.1 AAV should be the team high point-until his next deal). I would tie up Bert for the full 8 yrs(27/28) at $4.5 per.

Projections:
Larkin: 40 goals and 85-90 pts.
Mantha: 35 goals and 70+ pts.
Bert: 25 goals and 50+ pts.

Larkin is the driver, Mantha the finisher and Bert is the protector. This line can be a dominant force for the next decade. Works for me.

Can't see the playoffs for the next 2 yrs.(big changes on defense and goaltending coming) , but have great hopes for the 21/22 season.

Top nine in in 21/22-
Bert/Larkin/Mantha
AA/Ras/Zadina
Svetch/Veleno/Hirose/Berggren


*I am firmly in the belief that AA is probably the second fastest guy in the league. How do you replace that?? Mantha is on the verge of becoming a major power forward in the league. Once again, what kind of return would ensure that you came out ahead in the deal. As for trading any one individually or any of the three as part of a package deal, this is the very short list of players who I would be interested in trading for: Parayko(St.L)/McAvoy(Bos)/Chabot(Ott)/Ekblad(Fla)/Jones and Werenski(CBJ) and none of those teams will move any of those assets for any thing less than a massive overpayment(especially in the case of division opponents).

Looking forward to the upcoming season and am anxious to see the further development of the team.

totally on board with this . love marshall dylans GUN SMOKE LINE . im always surprised so many want to trade one of mantha or aa whom both are going to have break out seasons this year imo . and theyve already done good things with zero support from the defense ever since theyve came up . if theyd been on good nhl teams since day one theyd be seen as core peices by now . and besides being so fast aa is a power skater that also bulls his way past defenders .

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Mantha is nowhere near worth $7 million per season...I honestly don't see anyone making more than Larkin at this point in time.

If Mantha scores 35 goals the arbitrator is going to give him that value. He doesn't even need to worry about the Larkin angle given his ability to dictate an arbitration settlement. Also true of AA too, they have a little more hammer than your typical RFA, something Trouba just exploited.

Kevin Hayes just got 7.14.

This is really run by percentage of the cap from what most industry people say, Larkin for instance is now around 7.5% of our cap. Just two years ago on a 75 million Cap Nielsen represented a shade over 7% at 5.25. As the cap drives upward the deals handed down grow. If Mantha pops 40 goals he becomes a 7 million dollar annual player even if we all want to set the Larkin barrier, I think that is a hold over from the pre-cap era Wings logic. Negotiating later and banking on yourself pays off, it is why Larkin didn't go with 8 either on term. If you want these guys on 8 year deals I doubt they come in under Larkin and their agents aren't going to hear that argument for long given they are giving up 7 UFA years and their percentage of the cap would be lower than a complete RFA deal.

 

[FMichael]

If Mantha scores 35 goals the arbitrator is going to give him that value. He doesn't even need to worry about the Larkin angle given his ability to dictate an arbitration settlement. Also true of AA too, they have a little more hammer than your typical RFA, something Trouba just exploited.

Kevin Hayes just got 7.14.

This is really run by percentage of the cap from what most industry people say, Larkin for instance is now around 7.5% of our cap. Just two years ago on a 75 million Cap Nielsen represented a shade over 7% at 5.25. As the cap drives upward the deals handed down grow. If Mantha pops 40 goals he becomes a 7 million dollar annual player even if we all want to set the Larkin barrier, I think that is a hold over from the pre-cap era Wings logic. Negotiating later and banking on yourself pays off, it is why Larkin didn't go with 8 either on term. If you want these guys on 8 year deals I doubt they come in under Larkin and their agents aren't going to hear that argument for long given they are giving up 7 UFA years and their percentage of the cap would be lower than a complete RFA deal.

Only way Mantha gets that sort of $$$ is if he has an amazing season...My guess is he - along with Bert, and AA - will get 3 to 5 year deals ranging from $4.5 to $5,75 per season...They're good players - not great players.

Players like Nielsen get overpaid because they're UFAs, and there's always a GM out there desperate enough to do just that...And giving Hayes that sort of $$$ is simply dumb...The Flyers will regret that within 3 years...Yzerman is certainly better/smarter than that.

 

[JoesuffP]

I really have no idea how players think on this, but would a longer term contract bring the AAV down for some of these guys?

They're not in the Marner situation where they're sitting on a LOT of prime years to come. Marner is 22. Of course Marner could want a shorter deal to put him to 25-26 and still get PAID.

AA is already 25. Mantha is like a month younger than him. Anything longer than 2 years and they're basically out of the typical prime year range. If they get a 7-8 year deal, would they come down on the AAV? If they would, I would pull the trigger on at least one of them, probably Mantha given his underlying numbers. The cap tends to go up in the long run. Giving term with a lowered AAV isn't going to be that bad in the later years where you expect them to decline. They're both damn good players. You could do worse than locking up solid middle6 talent, potentially top line talent in Mantha, for long term to get a reduced AAV, even if only slightly.

That depends what they’re expecting as a AAV. I wouldn’t go long term with either over 6M AAV. They’re objectively worth more but Bertuzzi is the type you could get as a steal with a long term deal @ 4M idk. It’s so hard to predict the market these days

 

[MBH]

I got at it a little bit earlier with Bertuzzi. But I would ask this, what are our issues with Mantha and Athanasiou to date? Why might our new manager be hesitant to talk contract?

I think Yzerman given his history and what we know about them isn't going to be as forgiving of their compete levels as Holland was even with the dearth of talent. It is something Stevie didn't put up with as a leader of the team either, chucking Primeau and others out of town that had that question mark. We shall see. I think both guys can be big pieces, but if they go through one of their 10 game I don't give a crap stretches we have seen, well Yzerman might ship one as a point to the rest of the guys and maximize the asset before locking in on term a guy he doesn't want doing that at points of a season in his long-term vision.

I think the "compete level" thing is overblown.
Scorers are streaky.
Athanasiou or Mantha aren't any worse than Kane or dozens of other wingers when it comes to defense and effort level in other parts of the game.

But you have a point. Yzerman needs to see, first hand, what he's got.
And it's a tricky spot. Because you've got a coach with a history of alienating young players. He's also a coach with one of the worst records in the NHL.

So while he's trying to assess two players with some ifs in their track record, he's also got to weight that against the caliber of coaching he has in Detroit.

I think Blashill, by the way, is the first coach in the history of the franchise to miss the playoffs three straight years.

As for Yzerman's history, he's got something new in Detroit.
Unlike Tampa, he doesn't have a Stamkos and Hedman.
And unlike Tampa, he can't get team discounts for sticking with a winner, with low taxes, and year-round beachfront weather.
So I'm not sure Yzerman can just afford to ship out an Athanasiou or Mantha so easily.

 

[MBH]

Only way Mantha gets that sort of $$$ is if he has an amazing season...My guess is he - along with Bert, and AA - will get 3 to 5 year deals ranging from $4.5 to $5,75 per season...They're good players - not great players.

Players like Nielsen get overpaid because they're UFAs, and there's always a GM out there desperate enough to do just that...And giving Hayes that sort of $$$ is simply dumb...The Flyers will regret that within 3 years...Yzerman is certainly better/smarter than that.

Most top liners and top sixers get paid at the age of 26 these days.
Free agent or not.
That's why so few good players hit the market.

 

[Winger98]

When AA puts up over ppg in a season and has a Smythe in his trophy case, I think I'd be less concerned about his compete level, too.

 

[Gniwder]

I think Blashill, by the way, is the first coach in the history of the franchise to miss the playoffs three straight years.

You are correct:
Detroit Red Wings hockey team statistics and history at hockeydb.com

I'm not sure any coach could have made the playoffs with the roster though. That being said, if Blash puts Abby or Helm in the top 6, then he needs to be fired immediately.

 

[FMichael]

Most top liners and top sixers get paid at the age of 26 these days.

Or in Toronto's case they get their $$$ at 21/22.

 

[kliq]

I think mantha likely gets signed to a long term deal, I could see something along the lines of 6mil x 8 years. AA, I don’t see Yzerman keeping, I expect him to be traded before he hits RFA for a D-man. He doesn’t seem like the type of player Yzerman would commit to. Beetuzzi is a wild card, I have no clue what he will get. Maybe 5.75mil x 5 years???

 

[Henkka]

Bert is basically just actually Chris Kunitz. Poor man's version my ass. He's a younger Chris Kunitz. Poor man's implies that he's a knockoff version. Little Bert looks like he'll be able to do exactly what Kunitz did. I mean, remember that Kunitz did his scoring on a line with Sidney Crosby. A guy who's just a teensy bit better than Dylan Larkin.

Agree with this. Perfect system player and complimentary player.

 

[FMichael]

I think mantha likely gets signed to a long term deal, I could see something along the lines of 6mil x 8 years. AA, I don’t see Yzerman keeping, I expect him to be traded before he hits RFA for a D-man. He doesn’t seem like the type of player Yzerman would commit to. Beetuzzi is a wild card, I have no clue what he will get. Maybe 5.75mil x 5 years???

Don't get me wrong - I don't mean to talk $hit about 3 of our young forwards (Mantha/AA/Bert) - but none of them IMHO should get anything more than Larkin at this point in their careers, and chances are they'll get anywhere from 3 to 5 year deals (unless they go thru arbitration).

I def can see Yzerman giving any 1 of these 3 the 'Drouin' treatment.

 

[Winger98]

Don't get me wrong - I don't mean to talk $hit about 3 of our young forwards (Mantha/AA/Bert) - but none of them IMHO should get anything more than Larkin at this point in their careers, and chances are they'll get anywhere from 3 to 5 year deals (unless they go thru arbitration).

I def can see Yzerman giving any 1 of these 3 the 'Drouin' treatment.

The Drouin treatment started with Drouin holding out. I can't see Bert being a really difficult signing, and I don't really see it in Mantha, either. AA, though, with his agent...I can see there being an issue there. And that will grease the skid for Yzerman moving him.