Connor Hellebuyck's seemingly excellent season.

[jetsforever]

Well regardless of the reason why his numbers are good, they are so I'm happy. Also he's stolen quite a few games for us with not many poor performances - better than Pavelec any day.

 

[Flair Hay]

Anyone who has watched him play a fair bit this year can see the worthlessness of the OP statistics.

He has been a rock.

When the goalie and the team have a certain harmony and consistency in what to expect of each other that is when your goalies stats will look the best.

He has had a great year for sure. He's been everything we were hoping for this year overall that's for sure. His own development and the team's play has him playing well. That's the only conclusion I'm taking out of those stats and it's how I look at it from watching.

 

[Festinator]

Imagine having 32 wins, a .922 %, 2.39 GAA and 6 shutouts and being called an under-performing goalie because your team is good at limiting high danger scoring chances.

 

[El Travo]

We have gone to places nobody was meant to go in the world of advanced stats.

 

[lomiller1]

On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.

5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.

Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.

I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.

Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Vezina nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.

And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.

Check DSv% on: Corsica | Goalie Stats

It's worth following, but keep in mind Corsica's Dsv% is based on Corsica's expected goals, which in turn does not outperform shots for predicting outcomes. Basically when the two don't agree we can't really tell which to trust more Dsv% or plane old sv%. If we still had public access to @DTMaH's expected goals and expected sv% we'd be able to get somewhere since his Xgoals and Xsv% models did outperform just about everything else but he was hired by the Avs over the summer and AFAIK his work is no longer publically available.

 

[lomiller1]

so, not stupid. tracking high quality scoring chances at both ends of the ice is perfectly rational

It's rational but on it's own it doesn't seem to yield better results than Corsi. The basic concept and formula's Corsica is using date back to ~2010, but they never managed to demonstrate superiority over simple sv% and Csv% until @DTMaH came out with his version. His model also included shooter history and that seems to have been the boost needed to get over the top. IOW it seems just knowing where the shot is coming from and what type of shot (plus the other stuff they capture like rebounds) it is isn't quite enough, you also need to factor in who the shooter is.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It's rational but on it's own it doesn't seem to yield better results than Corsi. The basic concept and formula's Corsica is using date back to ~2010, but they never managed to demonstrate superiority over simple sv% and Csv% until @DTMaH came out with his version. His model also included shooter history and that seems to have been the boost needed to get over the top. IOW it seems just knowing where the shot is coming from and what type of shot (plus the other stuff they capture like rebounds) it is isn't quite enough, you also need to factor in who the shooter is.

agreed with all this. it's not a perfect metric, but it's not stupid either in my opinion

 

[howkie]

I have a question, with this expected saves/goals and quality saves.
High danger chances are based on what? Where the shot is taking only? or you factoring in, velocity of shot, traffic in front of the net and where the shot actully would hit the net? I mean with my muffin shots in high danger situations, goalies would save 10/10 but Laine is shooting, maybe save what, 3of 10?

 

[22Brad Park]

It's an interesting read.But he has a real nice goals against and to me that would be most important stat.No matter how many good or bad chances or expected chances or help from defence he has a solid GAA% 2.39 and they relates directly to pucks not in net.

 

[Rygu]

He's had an awesome season on a team not known for it's defensive prowess.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

We have gone to places nobody was meant to go in the world of advanced stats.

Literally one of the most basic stats. I'd be shocked if NHL teams weren't using this data, and stuff far more advanced to track their goalies play. SV% and GAA are horribly misleading.

 

[McDNicks17]

Casey DeSmith for Vezina.

That 2.85 dSV%.

 

[R3DDRAG0N]

I hate stats guys and the false narratives they create to suit their preconceived conclusions. Worst threads ever....this one takes the cake..

 

[eternalbedhead]

agreed with all this. it's not a perfect metric, but it's not stupid either in my opinion

That just about sums up pretty much every stat in existence.

Our problem is the fact that we're taking these useful, but imperfect stats and we're relying solely on them. (case in point: OP)

Stats always should be supplemental. Especially in seasons like this where we're seeing everyone from Josh Bailey to Yanni Gourde going off.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

And to think my friends just let me go on and cheer for the guy like that when his DSV.90/60% wasn't good. No wonder they just sat there snickering.

 

[rhinoshawarma]

I get your point but theres many more things to take into consideration than one advanced stat to see how good a goalie or a defence is.

 

[Newsworthy]

I would like to see him win Vezina.

 

[tony d]

To me he's having a good season and solidifies the Jets in net, he's a big reason they are doing so well.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

man I hate these confusing stats nowadays for goalies and players... I like the good old fashion way of watching games and making my judgements...

and my judgement of Hellebuyck is that he is a damn good goalie, gives his team a chance to win every night and has helped take this team to the next level

I do give credit to those that find these stats and rifle them off though.... cause myself, I find them a little overwhelming to look at and figure out

 

[boyko10]

All Winnipeg really needed was competent goaltending to take the next step. Going from disastrous to competent is a huge step up.
.

Learning to defend as a team hasn't hurt either. Night and day compared to last season.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This is why I don't use GSAA lol

 

[JianYang]

Learning to defend as a team hasn't hurt either. Night and day compared to last season.

It all roots back to the goaltending. It trickles down the entire team and gives them confidence in their own game, and to trust what they are supposed to do. Things never really fall into place when the team is 2nd guessing their goalie.

 

[newfy]

Yeah that seems like a pretty ridiculous stat. What does corsica take into account for high danger chances? I dabble into advanced stats but I'm not crazy about them. I've always wanted to dig into high danger chances more. I mean, a weak wrister from the point can be high danger if theres 4 guys in front of the net but I doubt that is taken into consideration.

So in my completely uneducated opinion, I would say we're taking a stat that is far from perfect and using it to develop another stat that in turn will be even further from perfect. I really really really doubt a goalie with a 922 save percentage is underperforming this badly. So if he was performing up to par based on this stat, he would need what? A .950?

 

[Whileee]

On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.

5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.

Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.

I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.

Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Vezina nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.

And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.

Check DSv% on: Corsica | Goalie Stats

Did you check out Hellebuyck's save% and DSv% 4v5?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He's been very good this year, if he keeps up his level of play. The Jets will go a long way these playoffs. He's the key IMO to the Jets playoffs.