jetsforever
Registered User
- Dec 14, 2013
- 27,514
- 23,636
Anyone who has watched him play a fair bit this year can see the worthlessness of the OP statistics.
He has been a rock.
On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.
5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.
Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.
I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.
Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Vezina nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.
And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.
Check DSv% on: Corsica | Goalie Stats
It's rational but on it's own it doesn't seem to yield better results than Corsi. The basic concept and formula's Corsica is using date back to ~2010, but they never managed to demonstrate superiority over simple sv% and Csv% until @DTMaH came out with his version. His model also included shooter history and that seems to have been the boost needed to get over the top. IOW it seems just knowing where the shot is coming from and what type of shot (plus the other stuff they capture like rebounds) it is isn't quite enough, you also need to factor in who the shooter is.so, not stupid. tracking high quality scoring chances at both ends of the ice is perfectly rational
agreed with all this. it's not a perfect metric, but it's not stupid either in my opinionIt's rational but on it's own it doesn't seem to yield better results than Corsi. The basic concept and formula's Corsica is using date back to ~2010, but they never managed to demonstrate superiority over simple sv% and Csv% until @DTMaH came out with his version. His model also included shooter history and that seems to have been the boost needed to get over the top. IOW it seems just knowing where the shot is coming from and what type of shot (plus the other stuff they capture like rebounds) it is isn't quite enough, you also need to factor in who the shooter is.
We have gone to places nobody was meant to go in the world of advanced stats.
That just about sums up pretty much every stat in existence.agreed with all this. it's not a perfect metric, but it's not stupid either in my opinion
All Winnipeg really needed was competent goaltending to take the next step. Going from disastrous to competent is a huge step up.
.
Learning to defend as a team hasn't hurt either. Night and day compared to last season.
Did you check out Hellebuyck's save% and DSv% 4v5?On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.
5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.
Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.
I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.
Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Vezina nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.
And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.
Check DSv% on: Corsica | Goalie Stats