Connor Hellebuyck's seemingly excellent season.

[Bjornar Moxnes]

On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.

5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.

Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.

I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.

Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Vezina nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.

And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.

Check DSv% on: Corsica | Goalie Stats

Click to read more...

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Alrighty then.

 

[Patrik Barkov]

On paper Hellebuyck seems to be having a fantastic season. A record of: 32-10-8 with a GAA of 2.39 and a Sv% of 92.16. But with advanced metrics, we now have something known as DSv%, which is your actual save percentage minus your expected save percentage.

5on5, of all goalies that played at least 1,500 minutes, Hellebuyck is 24/29 in DSv%. He has a net negative in it as well with a -0.51 DSv%. Meaning he is actually doing worse than what is expected from him. Winnipeg's defense deserves a ton of credit for the season he is having.

Hellebuyck is facing a league-low of 3.98 high danger shots per 60 5on5.

I'm glad Winnipeg found a goalie that they could depend on, but the reality is not only is Hellebuyck not having an excellent season, he's actually having a below average season as far as what's expected from him.

Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Norris nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.

And while I agree 100% goalies can influence stats with their puck handling and rebound control, Hellebuyck isn't good in either category, meaning his defense does far more work to influece his expected save percentage.

I'd like to have a word with them

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I'd like to have a word with them

NVM

 

[Kelly]

Those that think Hellebuyck deserves Norris nomination are the same that probably overrated Dubnyk not realizing Dubnyk is constantly performing below his expected save percentage.

Actually, those who think this probably think Laine deserves a vezina nomination.

 

[The Noot]

soooo source?

 

[Ainec]

uh.. no no no



I remember at the start of the season people said WPG's underlying #s is a worry... Well, they're still doing well because you can't apply the same principle to every team

Also got attacked for saying they were not a below average team last year.. because corsi

 

[Guffman]

I agree that Winnipeg has done a much better job defensively this year in limiting quality chances.

I am OK with your conclusion if we can parlay that for his upcoming contract negotiations.

In fairness to Hellebuyck, he always lavishes praise on how the team plays in front of him and for good reason.

I am good with the collective results.

 

[Flair Hay]

I could see it. I see Hellebuyck's play as pretty solid as oppose to dominant. He carried the team the first month or so.

Good to hear the Jets are doing such a great job limiting dangerous chances.

Last time Maurice had the squad playing this well as a team Pavelec and Hutch both had their best years.

 

[CraigsList]

So... Hellebuyck's receiving flack for saving the low danger shots he should be saving?

 

[dratbunnies]

Interesting. Good piece of context to keep in mind, and it has definitely swayed my opinion but remember it is still just a piece of the context. Your conclusion is stronger than it merits IMO

 

[MardyBum]

Helle was stealing games for us earlier in the year when we were getting outshot and outchanced. As the Jets shot totals (offensively and defensively) have improved over the year he hasn't had to, and we've just needed him to be solid.

I agree that he shouldn't win or be a contender for the vezina. The Jets defense for the most part (and when healthy) have done a great job limiting shots and high danger chances against, and Helle has benefitted from it.

A lot of goalies from other teams with similar stats face a higher and more dangerous volume of shots.

 

[YesCubed]

Also got attacked for saying they were not a below average team last year.. because corsi

they didn't make the playoffs in a conference where 8 out of 14 teams make it

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think Vasilevsky will likely win both Vezina and Jennings, but Hellebuyck deserves a nomination at least.

I find he only struggles when he has no help for a certain amount of time. Otherwise, I think he's just amazing, I had faith in him since he debuted for the Jets.

 

[Syckle78]

Expected saves is as f***ing stupid as expected goals.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Expected saves is as ****ing stupid as expected goals.

so, not stupid. tracking high quality scoring chances at both ends of the ice is perfectly rational

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

So you're telling me that a goalie who has 2.39 GAA and 92.2 save pct is performing way worse than he should.

This is why i hate all these advanced stats. I watch every Jets game and i can tell you as good as we have been, we are not THAT good that if our goalie is not posting the best numbers in the league he sucks.

Hellebuyck's stolen games for us this season. He hasn't had many stinkers. His numbers are great. What more can you ask ?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

So this is what GMs are looking at when they are voting on the Vezina....

 

[Allan92]

I think this is just taking the advanced metrics and stats overboard. It's a little silly tbh

 

[Cellee]

Anyone who has watched him play a fair bit this year can see the worthlessness of the OP statistics.

He has been a rock.

 

[Hobble]

If you go deep enough, you can create a mathematical formula to support or deride a player's performance.

As a Jets fan, I'm not too worried right now. Even after the Nashville game

 

[aufheben]

If you go deep enough, you can create a mathematical formula to support or deride a player's performance.

As a Jets fan, I'm not too worried right now. Even after the Nashville game

How is factoring in the quality of shots a goalie faces "going deep"?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Not sure I agree with judging goalies based only on 5v5 play.

I can understand it more with skaters since PP/PK time can vary wildly among players, but every goalie is important on the PK.

FWIW Helle scores really well by this metric when you adjust it to PK only. 3rd after Gibson and Andersen. That counts too.

 

[1specter]

Expected saves is as ****ing stupid as expected goals.

'Things that I don't understand are stupid'

 

[JianYang]

All Winnipeg really needed was competent goaltending to take the next step. Going from disastrous to competent is a huge step up.

I'm not putting my money on the jets, but they are my bandwagon team of choice.