Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

[Gm0ney]

You're factoring in his last year which was good and over a year ago.
How many teams do you think have won the Cup with a goalie who played average to below average through out the whole year?

Last year Holtby was a .907 in the regular season (54 games).
The year before, Matt Murray was a .907 in the regular season (49 games).
Quick won it after a .915 season in 2014.
Niemi put up a .912 in Chicago in 2009-10 and won the Cup.

So there's 4 in the last 10 years...

 

[surixon]

You think, but your numbers are skewed by a really good year two seasons ago which doesn't/didn't help us this year, and a poor year before that one as well. Maybe he turns it around like you think but he had a bad year. His numbers show overall he is pretty good, but that doesn't take away he's let in some really soft goals this year and I'm sure it affects the play of the team and their confidence in him.

The numbers aren't skewed anymore or less then any of the other goalies on that list. All played a similar amount of games. I am sure you could say the same for any number of guys on that list:

Last 4 years
Holtby .925, .922, .907, .911 so two elite years, one poor year and one below average year
Rask .915, .915, .917, .912 So he is consistently average
Rinne .908, .918, .927, .918 So two slightly above average years, one poor and one elite year
Lunqvist .92o, .910, .915, .907 So one very good year, one average, two below average
Helle .918, .907, .924, .913 One elite year, one poor year and two average years

I think you get the point, almost all goalies have large variations in their performances year to year. Only Rask shows consistency between years

 

[Adam da bomb]

The goal bishop let in tonight is softer than any Helly let in this playoffs.

 

[Gm0ney]

You think, but your numbers are skewed by a really good year two seasons ago which doesn't/didn't help us this year, and a poor year before that one as well. Maybe he turns it around like you think but he had a bad year. His numbers show overall he is pretty good, but that doesn't take away he's let in some really soft goals this year and I'm sure it affects the play of the team and their confidence in him.

Yes, if we ignore all of Hellebuyck's good results, he looks a lot worse...maybe Garret can explain this strange phenomenon?

 

[tntkid]

The goal bishop let in tonight is softer than any Helly let in this playoffs.

We paid 6.1 million dollars so Hellebuyck could help us win and not play like Pavelec 2.0 costing us games due to soft goals.

He better get his head out of his ass soon.

 

[Adam da bomb]

We paid 6.1 million dollars so Hellebuyck could help us win and not play like Pavelec 2.0 costing us games due to soft goals.

He better get his head out of his ass soon.

How much is Bishop earning? How much is Smith earning as they both got lit up. How much does Holtby cost as he got lit up. How does that convert to forward pay as Ehlers is making 6 mil to not score.

 

[tntkid]

How much is Bishop earning? How much is Smith earning as they both got lit up.

They are both over 30 and make less than Hellebuyck.

Bishop and Smith can suck all they want as they are not in our net.

 

[Adam da bomb]

They are both over 30 and make less than Hellebuyck.

Bishop and Smith can suck all they want as they are not in our net.

So only our goalie gets held to higher standards k got it.

 

[NotCommitted]

Lol Bishop coming from a .934 regular season and first two games in the series .938 and .952... Pretty much no matter what he does tonight, I don't think it's gonna be a comparison that brings Hellebuyck in a good light.

 

[tntkid]

So only our goalie gets held to higher standards k got it.

Bishop and Smith are not Jets so I do not care if they get run over by a zamboni.

When our team shows up and Hellebuyck does not we are in serious trouble.
In the playoffs you are only as good as your goalie.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Bishop and Smith are not Jets so I do not care if they get run over by a zamboni.

When our team shows up and Hellebuyck does not we are in serious trouble.
In the playoffs you are only as good as your goalie.

In that case the goalie should get the most money if he's the difference maker.
Yet Laine is going to far outearn him. Also what happens when your goalie shows up and the rest of the team doesn't like game 1?

 

[WPGChief]

An interesting article looking at Hellebuyck's movement in his crease: End Game - Hellebuyck vs. St. Louis (found here)

I assume it's looking at the goalie cam provided by the NHL Gamecenter. It's not really deep analysis but I think it gives some weight to my thought that Hellebuyck didn't move much outside his paint to challenge - interesting of the author to point out Hellebuyck moves slower from right-to-left, left being his glove hand. Perhaps he trusts his ability to reach and snag the puck with his glove?

 

[kylbaz]

Yes, if we ignore all of Hellebuyck's good results, he looks a lot worse...maybe Garret can explain this strange phenomenon?

If you had to choose his good results from two years ago or his most recent results which is more realistic going forward ? Please no silly cherry picking Garrett stats

 

[tntkid]

In that case the goalie should get the most money if he's the difference maker.
Yet Laine is going to far outearn him. Also what happens when your goalie shows up and the rest of the team doesn't like game 1?

The Jets could not score on Binnington in game 1 and he was playing at an unsustainable level which gave the St Louis Blues a big edge.
Hellebuyck was just alright in game 1 but still let in a back breaking weak goal to give St Louis the win.

Goalies such as Holtby and Fleury are very consistent and are considered elite and can take a team to the Stanley Cup by stealing games.
These types of goalies deserve the big money contracts because they are reliable , consistent and know how to show up in the playoffs.
But since they are not our goalies so I do not give 2 f***s about them either.

 

[tntkid]

An interesting article looking at Hellebuyck's movement in his crease: End Game - Hellebuyck vs. St. Louis (found here)

I assume it's looking at the goalie cam provided by the NHL Gamecenter. It's not really deep analysis but I think it gives some weight to my thought that Hellebuyck didn't move much outside his paint to challenge - interesting of the author to point out Hellebuyck moves slower from right-to-left, left being his glove hand. Perhaps he trusts his ability to reach and snag the puck with his glove?

Hellebuyck's blocker high weakness has been exploited many times by the Blues in this series.

They are targeting it in all the games and him getting beat clean with wristers to that side due to his lack of movement is a little concerning.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The Jets could not score on Binnington in game 1 and he was playing at an unsustainable level which gave the St Louis Blues a big edge.
Hellebuyck was just alright in game 1 but still let in a back breaking weak goal to give St Louis the win.

Goalies such as Holtby and Fleury are very consistent and are considered elite and can take a team to the Stanley Cup by stealing games.
These types of goalies deserve the big money contracts because they are reliable , consistent and know how to show up in the playoffs.
But since they are not our goalies so I do not give 2 ****s about them either.

And yet Holtby is still paid less than Ovie. If goaltending deserves the level of criticism you are putting on them, than they should be the highest paid just like quarterback in football. Ehlers is getting paid the same as Helly and has just been alright. He has zero points to show and yet, people around here act as if he is deserving his 6 mil. Enormous double standard.
Which was the weak goal the one where Perrault had Hayes played lousy D? The one where he couldn't see at all on Perron's goal?
If Fleury is so elite why'd pittsburgh go with Murray, who is on the verge of being swept. Goaltending in general is down this year. There isn't a single game this playoffs where Holtby and Fleury have allowed fewer than 2 goals. Pretty consistent.

 

[tntkid]

And yet Holtby is still paid less than Ovie. If goaltending deserves the level of criticism you are putting on them, than they should be the highest paid just like quarterback in football. Ehlers is getting paid the same as Helly and has just been alright. He has zero points to show and yet, people around here act as if he is deserving his 6 mil. Enormous double standard.
Which was the weak goal the one where Perrault had Hayes played lousy D? The one where he couldn't see at all.
If Fleury is so elite why'd pittsburgh go with Murray, who is on the verge of being swept. Goaltending in general is down this year.

I am going to say that the ripping that Hellebuyck has been getting right now from both the fans and the media has been 100% earned.

We all want him to do well which gives us a better chance to win but his play has been disappointing in both the regular season and the playoffs.

He is set for life with his contract so he should be more than happy.
Hellebuyck needs to be better for us to compete for a Cup period.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I am going to say that the ripping that Hellebuyck has been getting right now from both the fans and the media has been 100% earned.

We all want him to do well which gives us a better chance to win but his play has been disappointing in both the regular season and the playoffs.

He is set for life with his contract so he should be more than happy.
Hellebuyck needs to be better for us to compete for a Cup period.

I still think it's been better value than Ehlers at 6mil.

 

[tntkid]

I still think it's been better value than Ehlers at 6mil.

Ehlers does play net.

If Hellebuyck played consistent like he did last season I would even not even blink at the 6.1 million contract that he is getting.

 

[Heldig]

Here's hoping Hellebucyk gets hot (as we know he can).

 

[Jets4Life]

If you had to choose his good results from two years ago or his most recent results which is more realistic going forward ? Please no silly cherry picking Garrett stats

Two years ago, Hellebuyck struggled and finished with a 0.907%. Last year was his Vezina caliber season, with a 0.924% in the season, and a 0.922% in the playoffs.

This season, Helle performed better than the league average (0.913 vs 0.910), and has had some difficulties in this series. I hope the is able to turn it around in Game 4. Many similarities in his play with the Vegas series last year.

 

[Jets4Life]

Hellebuyck's blocker high weakness has been exploited many times by the Blues in this series.

They are targeting it in all the games and him getting beat clean with wristers to that side due to his lack of movement is a little concerning.

No different that Biddington's weakness, if you put the puck up high enough. The Jets figured this out in Game 2, and exploited it in Game 3. Every goalie has his weaknesses. It is how well he adepts to correcting deficiencies in his game. Helle proved that he could adept in 2017-18, coming off a mediocre year. I have no reason to suspect he will not work on, and hopefully correct his deficiencies in the summer.

 

[Gm0ney]

If you had to choose his good results from two years ago or his most recent results which is more realistic going forward ? Please no silly cherry picking Garrett stats

By definition, it's not cherry picking when you look at the entire set of data. "Garret stats" would probably adjust to give more weight to recent results...but I only have the Windows Calculator and the Hockey Reference stat sheets to go on, so...

Over his entire NHL career (regular season + playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 6366 out of the 6952 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.
Over the last two seasons, (incl. playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 4313 out of the 4697 shots he's faced for a SV% of .918.
Over the last ~3000 shots against (incl. playoffs, up to today), Hellebuyck has saved 2774 out of the 3029 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.

His "true talent" puts him as a .916 goalie on average. So when he has a run of bad (or good) games, we can expect him to regress back to that mean over the long term. And .916 is a pretty good mean. Quick is a career .914. Crawford is a .918. Fleury's a .913. Matt Murry is a .917. Holtby's a .918.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

By definition, it's not cherry picking when you look at the entire set of data. "Garret stats" would probably adjust to give more weight to recent results...but I only have the Windows Calculator and the Hockey Reference stat sheets to go on, so...

Over his entire NHL career (regular season + playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 6366 out of the 6952 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.
Over the last two seasons, (incl. playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 4313 out of the 4697 shots he's faced for a SV% of .918.
Over the last ~3000 shots against (incl. playoffs, up to today), Hellebuyck has saved 2774 out of the 3029 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.

His "true talent" puts him as a .916 goalie on average. So when he has a run of bad (or good) games, we can expect him to regress back to that mean over the long term. And .916 is a pretty good mean. Quick is a career .914. Crawford is a .918. Fleury's a .913. Matt Murry is a .917. Holtby's a .918.

100% this.

Helle is an above average goalie. Slightly overpaid maybe, but we know what we have in him and it's a f*** load better than the alternative of not having a capable starting goalie.

 

[surixon]

By definition, it's not cherry picking when you look at the entire set of data. "Garret stats" would probably adjust to give more weight to recent results...but I only have the Windows Calculator and the Hockey Reference stat sheets to go on, so...

Over his entire NHL career (regular season + playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 6366 out of the 6952 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.
Over the last two seasons, (incl. playoffs), Hellebuyck has saved 4313 out of the 4697 shots he's faced for a SV% of .918.
Over the last ~3000 shots against (incl. playoffs, up to today), Hellebuyck has saved 2774 out of the 3029 shots he's faced for a SV% of .916.

His "true talent" puts him as a .916 goalie on average. So when he has a run of bad (or good) games, we can expect him to regress back to that mean over the long term. And .916 is a pretty good mean. Quick is a career .914. Crawford is a .918. Fleury's a .913. Matt Murry is a .917. Holtby's a .918.

Bingo, he is a good but not elite starter that is getting paid good but not elite starting goalie salary.