Speculation: Colorado or Vegas

[Mrfenn92]

I want what's best for the Hawks long-term and this isn't it.

How do you know this isn’t the best for the hawks long term?
Is it because the charts say it’s not.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

They have talent now...They have hall of fame players on the team and just picked a 1C 3rd overall last year...On average the player they pick at 9 would be two years away...Go on the best run possible and hopefully the addition of Mitchell next year helps only add to what they build on in playoffs...

Like I said in the gamethread I'm only going to be pissed about them winning if the Oilers get Laf, because I'm assuming that would have been the Hawks combos if they lost.

To act like they were anything but incredibly lucky to win that series is wearing the indianhead beer goggles though.

 

[Rick C137]

These are very literally two of the worst possible matchups for the hawks. Vegas is a lot better of a team than even the point totals indicate. Dropped a lot of points because of goaltending between subban/MAFs game falling apart after his dad died. Lehner was a massive add to that team and MAF is playing a lot better. We’re not gonna see leaky goaltending against them.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

How do you know this isn’t the best for the hawks long term?
Is it because the charts say it’s not.

Yeah, the data says they were the worst defensive team in hockey in a year in which the Red Wings were historically bad. That's pretty hard to do. They out-sucked the Wings in their own end. Think about that.

The talent is there on the back end, it's just incredibly green+bad coaching.

You also have players like Strome and DeBrincat that bring them down defensively. Their defensive deficiencies outweigh what they bring on offense.

They have a lot of good individual players, but the overall team is less than the sum of its parts.

I'd have rather had the 12.5% chance at Laf than getting swept by the Knights or Avs in the next round.

 

[RayP]

I get if you're arguing score effects, that doesn't explain the 2nd period though.

The stats confirm the eye test.

High danger scoring chances are the most telling.

The Hawks outplayed the Oilers by a wider margin in the first period than the Oilers outplayed the Hawks in the second.

Hawks strike first to break the tie in a fairly even start to the 3rd period. Huge advantage to the Hawks at this point.

Oilers go into survival mode for the last ten minutes but fail to tie the game.

How you can come to the conclusion that the Hawks “didn’t deserve to win this game.” is absolutely mind boggling.

 

[BobbyJet]

Mark Spector: Blackhawks 'were better team, by a country-mile' in best-of-five series - Sportsnet.ca

It wasn't a country mile but Spector is right. Oilers can't live on 2 players and a PP.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

The Hawks outplayed the Oilers by a wider margin in the first period than the Oilers outplayed the Hawks in the second.

Hawks strike first to break the tie in a fairly even start to the 3rd period. Huge advantage to the Hawks at this point.

Oilers go into survival mode for the last ten minutes but fail to tie the game.

How you can come to the conclusion that the Hawks “didn’t deserve to win this game.” is absolutely mind boggling.

1st period was fairly even.
2nd and 3rd were dominated by the Oilers.

 

[theaub]

Imagine actively cheering against watching your favourite team play hockey

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Like I said in the gamethread I'm only going to be pissed about them winning if the Oilers get Laf, because I'm assuming that would have been the Hawks combos if they lost.

To act like they were anything but incredibly lucky to win that series is wearing the indianhead beer goggles though.

Laf does nothing for them...Their defense is terrible...They've needed a 1D for ten years

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Laf does nothing for them...Their defense is terrible...They've needed a 1D for ten years

I know...did you read my post?

Like I said in the gamethread I'm only going to be pissed about them winning if the Oilers get Laf, because I'm assuming that would have been the Hawks combos if they lost.

To act like they were anything but incredibly lucky to win that series is wearing the indianhead beer goggles though.

 

[wahsnairb]

Yeah, the data says they were the worst defensive team in hockey in a year in which the Red Wings were historically bad. That's pretty hard to do. They out-sucked the Wings in their own end. Think about that.

The talent is there on the back end, it's just incredibly green+bad coaching.

You also have players like Strome and DeBrincat that bring them down defensively. Their defensive deficiencies outweigh what they bring on offense.

They have a lot of good individual players, but the overall team is less than the sum of its parts.

I'd have rather had the 12.5% chance at Laf than getting swept by the Knights or Avs in the next round.

Do you play hockey/did you play hockey? Genuinely curious

If you have, and you have ever played at a higher level than you previously played, you would understand how important it will be for these young guns to see just how fast playoff hockey is. You don’t know it until you live it. They will get quality experience playing and making decisions at a pace they never ever have before.

They also get that while playing with HOF players (who may not even have the 2 years to wait on this talent to be good enough to be an integral part of the team).

There was a 12.5% chance of winning the draft lottery, there is a 6.25% chance of winning the cup, and 100% chance the talent on the team now gets valuable experience... even if it’s a sweep like you say (I don’t think it will be).

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

This is the equivalent of the Bears winning the last two games of the season when they have 3 wins to take themselves out of the running for a Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Do you play hockey/did you play hockey? Genuinely curious

If you have, and you have ever played at a higher level than you previously played, you would understand how important it will be for these young guns to see just how fast playoff hockey is. You don’t know it until you live it. They will get quality experience playing and making decisions at a pace they never ever have before.

They also get that while playing with HOF players (who may not even have the 2 years to wait on this talent to be good enough to be an integral part of the team).

There was a 12.5% chance of winning the draft lottery, there is a 6.25% chance of winning the cup, and 100% chance the talent on the team now gets valuable experience... even if it’s a sweep like you say (I don’t think it will be).

No.....I couldn't have played hockey even if I wanted to. I was born with a structural foot malformation that would have prevented me from playing. I also have autism and can't process info what's happening on the ice fast enough to play. I could get the xs and os but never put it into practice.

 

[wahsnairb]

No.....I couldn't have played hockey even if I wanted to. I was born with a structural foot malformation that would have prevented me from playing. I also have autism and can't process info fast enough to play hockey.

Gotcha, I wasn’t asking to be a dick... you just take a very analytical approach.

I promise you, playing true playoff hockey will be way better for this team and these young players than whomever we could have grabbed at 9 (12.5% is not worth hypothesizing over).

Enjoy the W. Crow def stole the game last night... no arguing that. It was nice to see. Maybe he does it again and we beat another team we shouldn’t... and another... and another

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Gotcha, I wasn’t asking to be a dick... you just take a very analytical approach.

I promise you, playing true playoff hockey will be way better for this team and these young players than whomever we could have grabbed at 9 (12.5% is not worth hypothesizing over).

Enjoy the W. Crow def stole the game last night... no arguing that. It was nice to see. Maybe he does it again and we beat another team we shouldn’t... and another... and another

Data is easy for me to understand, other stuff not so much. It's why I rely more on the data than the other things. There's not as much xs and os in hockey broadcasts like there is in football and basketball.

I understand football strategy a lot better than hockey strategy because I've had years of xs and os beat into me and there are shows on NFL Network/ESPN that explain that stuff. I'm being honest here.

Baseball is a slow and data driven sport so it's obviously easier for me to grasp.
If I had the knowledge, I'd be better but I need someone to explain that stuff to me.

Hockey is different because in that sport the data is a tool, not the full picture, unlike in baseball where it's mostly fact based data which is much easier for me to understand.

 

[RayP]

1st period was fairly even.
2nd and 3rd were dominated by the Oilers.

Genuinely convinced you’re not watching the games.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Genuinely convinced you’re not watching the games.

I watched the entirety of all four games.

I check the data afterwards to see if it matched up with the eye test.

I lean towards data over eye test because it's theoretically objective and removes confirmation bias and other types of biases.

 

[wahsnairb]

Data is easy for me to understand, other stuff not so much. It's why I rely more on the data than the other things. There's not as much xs and os in hockey broadcasts like there is in football and basketball.

I understand football strategy a lot better than hockey strategy because I've had years of xs and os beat into me and there are shows on NFL Network/ESPN that explain that stuff. I'm being honest here.

Baseball is a slow and data driven sport so it's obviously easier for me to grasp.
If i had the knowledge, I'd be better but I need someone to explain that stuff to me.

If you took the best high school baseball players in the country and assembled the most talented super team and they played an exhibition and had to hit off of Chapman throwing 100+ and 90+ with movement they’ve never seen before, they would probably struggle right?

What if he pitched to them for a week before the game took place? better chance at hitting it? Talent gives them more opportunity to hit, but talent + experience is what sets them up for success.

It’s like that.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Hawks are also the youngest team in the playoffs...a lot of guys are getting good experience playing meaningful games...Trust Mark Kelley, whoever the pick in the 1st round will very likely be on the team in two years...His track record with 1st round picks is awesome, every single one is in the NHL atm except for McNeil.

 

[RayP]

I watched the entirety of all four games.

I check the data afterwards to see if it matched up with the eye test.

I lean towards data over eye test because it's theoretically objective and removes confirmation bias and other types of biases.

Nope, sorry, if your eyes told you the first period was even and the second period was “dominated” then I am convinced you had it on as background noise at best.


This isn’t baseball. Not everything can be quantified with an advanced stat ESPECIALLY when the ice is as bad as it was.

 

[ClydeLee]

I watched the entirety of all four games.

I check the data afterwards to see if it matched up with the eye test.

I lean towards data over eye test because it's theoretically objective and removes confirmation bias and other types of biases.

But what do you use to conclude outplayed
Because when your 4th line is being used and outshot against McDavid but holding him from scoring and that generates more chances against but when the top lines are generating more. I dont get the 2 shot differential of a period like that being see as losing. That 2nd period was far more successful for the Hawks winning out vs the 5min major

 

[IceNeophyte]

from Vegas's perspective, we would LOVE you to face the Avs.

Even though this means we would lose to the Avs....again.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Nope, sorry, if your eyes told you the first period was even and the second period was “dominated” then I am convinced you had it on as background noise at best.


This isn’t baseball. Not everything can be quantified with an advanced stat ESPECIALLY when the ice is as bad as it was.

That's not what the eye test told me.

Eye test told me that the Hawks played really well in the 1st period, they played a lot of the 2nd on ST and that affected it, but they were kind of even 5-5 and in the 3rd period the Oilers were fighting for their lives.

Data says otherwise, so obviously my eyes were lying to me.

I'm not sure how to mix the data+eye test in hockey. Like I said data is easier to grasp for me than the eye test.

That being said, data is what led to the Hawks trading a 2nd for David Rundblad, and even though he always had good numbers with the Hawks he was the board whipping boy.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Mark Spector: Blackhawks 'were better team, by a country-mile' in best-of-five series - Sportsnet.ca

It wasn't a country mile but Spector is right. Oilers can't live on 2 players and a PP.

That guy is living on Uranus.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

from Vegas's perspective, we would LOVE you to face the Avs.

Even though this means we would lose to the Avs....again.

Good to see you already penciled in the Avs winning that series...