GDT: Colorado Aveslanche @ San Jose | 8 PM MT

[expatriatedtexan]

Yep. Fits the eye test perfectly with MacK/Rants. They looked bad IMO.

Nuke back to being stats darling

Manson hell of a game

Total shocker from MacK and Rants.. fits the eye test.

Looks like this model approved of JMFJ's game as well. Is this the same model that was crucifying him last season while he was playing top pairing for Chicago?

 

[Foppa2118]

Georgiev with a stellar game again.

PK huge again.

Nate, Drouin, and PP with off nights.

RyJo with a sneaky good game. Was a beast on faceoffs and defensively. Every big draw he seemed to win.

Cale puts the team on his back and says the hell with this. I'm putting the puck in the net.

Mikko shows his insane talent yet again. What an all world shot in the shootout.

Big team win early in the season to stick with it and find a way. Kind of win the could spark a winning streak. If the Avs get hot early, look out league.

 

[Bowe Byrum]

Yeah you are probably right...the Kings would have certainly still scored that goal with 10 secs to go in the 2nd period even if Mack wins that faceoff.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Looks like this model approved of JMFJ's game as well. Is this the same model that was crucifying him last season while he was playing top pairing for Chicago?

JMFJ was very good this game. He was good last game save one play.

 

[The Kingslayer]

He’s top-10 in my eyes and when you look out West, how many goalies are better? Oettinger, certainly. Probably Hellebuyck and Saros too.

He’s up there though. He definitely gives me more confidence than Grubauer did. Even when Grubauer was putting up good numbers, I didn’t feel he was as good as the numbers indicated.

1. binnington

2. Oettinger

3. Saros


4. Hellebuyc
5. Gustavsson
6. hill
7. Grubauer
8. Markstrom
9. Blackwood
10. Campbell/skinner/Georgiev

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Yeah, maybe.

Also, MacKinnon this week in practice…

View attachment 753258

Lol at Sakic behind the glass and nobody on the ice caring one iota, just usual MacK stuff.

This is hilarious

 

[Pokecheque]

Indeed. I dont think these line combos are working honestly. I really don't think Drouin/Mack/Mikko can work long term.

I don’t either. And about midway through the third Bednar finally started switching things up, bumped Drouin down to the third I think.

But yes the Triple Moose line will not work, nor will putting Lehks and Nuke out together at even strength (certainly not with Johanssen). The problem is that putting RJ ans JD out together is a goal against waiting to happen.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Lmao at thinking the reason that goal happened was because of the faceoff... a neutral zone faceoff at that

Losing the faceoff had nothing to do with that goal. It's what the players did after losing that was the cause of the goal... Just like every other goal.


Edit: Somebody even did the math on it very recently

How important are faceoffs in hockey?

Aside from the standard team stats like wins, losses, and goals, and t...

www.google.com

About as insignificant as you'll possibly get

Obviously what happened after the goal was not good but you can say that about most of the goals after a faceoff lost. Somebody usually screwed up. Yes it was a neutral zone faceoff but it is well known that late period goal could be deflating. With a two-goal lead and only 10 secs to go the smart thing to do was to just be safe. Heck he didn't even have to win it. He just had to make sure the puck was at least going towards the Kings'zone to kill time. He tried to catch them sleeping but instead they catch us sleeping.

That article proves absolutely nothing. It takes all faceoffs at equal value and also disregard which player takes the faceoffs. Not all faceoffs have the same importance and he actually admits that at the end of his article. Nobody here, and I mean absolutely nobody, has argued that ALL faceoffs are important. We argued that situational faceoffs are important. For example having an extra 20 secs of puck possession on a PP because you win the faceoff increases your chance of scoring a PP goal. The same can be be said for the PK. you win the faceoff and you can take 20 secs away from the other team's PP and therefore reducing their odds of scoring a PP goal. I already mentioned faceoffs late in the periods especially late in the 3rd period ahead by one or even two goals. Heck even situational faceoffs with a 3-goal lead could be important because it could switch the momemtum of the game. We all know that 3-goal are far from safe.

It is obviously your choice to decide to die on that hill though.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Obviously what happened after the goal was not good but you can say that about most of the goals after a faceoff lost. Somebody usually screwed up. Yes it was a neutral zone faceoff but it is well known that late period goal could be deflating. With a two-goal lead and only 10 secs to go the smart thing to do was to just be safe. Heck he didn't even have to win it. He just had to make sure the puck was at least going towards the Kings'zone to kill time. He tried to catch them sleeping but instead they catch us sleeping.

That article proves absolutely nothing. It takes all faceoffs at equal value and also disregard which player takes the faceoffs. Not all faceoffs have the same importance and he actually admits that at the end of his article. Nobody here, and I mean absolutely nobody, has argued that ALL faceoffs are important. We argued that situational faceoffs are important. For example having an extra 20 secs of puck possession on a PP because you win the faceoff increases your chance of scoring a PP goal. The same can be be said for the PK. you win the faceoff and you can take 20 secs away from the other team's PP and therefore reducing their odds of scoring a PP goal. I already mentioned faceoffs late in the periods especially late in the 3rd period ahead by one or even two goals. Heck even situational faceoffs with a 3-goal lead could be important because it could switch the momemtum of the game. We all know that 3-goal are far from safe.

It is obviously your choice to decide to die on that hill though.

Lol, it proves everything. He even said as much in the article that for every "important" faceoff you have 50-100 faceoffs that are essentially meaningless. He also even dug into the theory that faceoffs are important because you gain possession(IE important to win a faceoff on the PP) and found literally no correlation to that being true. Good teams in general get the puck back quickly, bad teams give the puck up quickly.


I have also said countless time that some faceoffs are important to win, like literally the last time we had this argument almost a year ago Rumor: - 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C

A completely meaningless stat. There's literally overwhelming evidence that they dont matter.


Yes there's an occasional important faceoff inside of a game and it'd be nice to have one go to guy for this team... But even then, the best faceoff Center in the league is just a 60% favorite to win a draw.

Yep... Its why the faceoff stat itself is essentially useless and shows zero correlation to team success. Doesn't matter one bit whether you're a 40% team or a 60% team(Let alone how slim a margin those numbers are in the first place). Only thing that matters is certain specific faceoff scenarios.

I would actually say the opening faceoff in OT is the most important given how important possession is and how difficult it is to regain. Beyond that, a defensive zone faceoff late in a close game could be important.




The reality is(And literally countless studies have been done at this point, Icould go pull 4-5 more articles if you need more proof) that the result of the faceoff doesn't matter. What is far more important is what happens on the ice immediately after a faceoff(IE not just letting your man skate away from you freely like in the LA game) and also making sure you dont lose a faceoff cleanly.

 

[jani]

JMFJ was very good this game. He was good last game save one play.

This is what I came to write. Also, this iteration of the 4th line is quickly becoming my favorite one since the early 2000's.

 

[Mr Zappalanche]

JMFJ is doing great job for us. Some of the people here disrespect him only because of his reputation. He has been a nearly perfect guy for his role.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Lol, it proves everything. He even said as much in the article that for every "important" faceoff you have 50-100 faceoffs that are essentially meaningless. He also even dug into the theory that faceoffs are important because you gain possession(IE important to win a faceoff on the PP) and found literally no correlation to that being true. Good teams in general get the puck back quickly, bad teams give the puck up quickly.


I have also said countless time that some faceoffs are important to win, like literally the last time we had this argument almost a year ago Rumor: - 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C






I would actually say the opening faceoff in OT is the most important given how important possession is and how difficult it is to regain. Beyond that, a defensive zone faceoff late in a close game could be important.




The reality is(And literally countless studies have been done at this point, Icould go pull 4-5 more articles if you need more proof) that the result of the faceoff doesn't matter. What is far more important is what happens on the ice immediately after a faceoff(IE not just letting your man skate away from you freely like in the LA game) and also making sure you dont lose a faceoff cleanly.

There are about 60 faceoffs in a game so you are telling me only one faceoff (1.7%) is important per game. That is IMO very low. There are on average around 6-8 penalties in a game. There are on average around 2 faceoffs per penalties so around 14 faceoffs involving PP/PK. And then you have your end-of-period faceoffs so let's say 4 for those. that is 18 faceoffs that have meaning in my eyes. That 18 faceoffs out of 60 or 30%. You get into OT and 100% of them are very important as you are already stated. That is a big difference from your 1.7%.

It is also evident that all FO, coaches and players care about them as well.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There are about 60 faceoffs in a game so you are telling me only one faceoff (1.7%) is important per game. That is IMO very low. There are on average around 6-8 penalties in a game. There are on average around 2 faceoffs per penalties so around 14 faceoffs involving PP/PK. And then you have your end-of-period faceoffs so let's say 4 for those. that is 18 faceoffs that have meaning in my eyes. That 18 faceoffs out of 60 or 30%. You get into OT and 100% of them are very important as you are already stated. That is a big difference from your 1.7%.

It is also evident that all FO, coaches and players care about them as well.

No, I am not telling you anything... The countless studies and data driven evidence is telling you, you're choosing to ignore it.


You obviously didn't read the article I linked fully.

For every really important faceoff that creates a goal or wins a game, there are 50-100 that have almost no impact aside from who starts the shift with the puck, and as we’ve learned, good teams will find ways to get the puck regardless of their faceoff ability.

Some games dont have a single important faceoff, like games that are lopsided scores very early on. Some games might have 3-4 important faceoffs.


It also certainly isn't evident that all players care about them... Mackinnon for example clearly doesn't give a shit.

 

[Bowe Byrum]

There are about 60 faceoffs in a game so you are telling me only one faceoff (1.7%) is important per game. That is IMO very low. There are on average around 6-8 penalties in a game. There are on average around 2 faceoffs per penalties so around 14 faceoffs involving PP/PK. And then you have your end-of-period faceoffs so let's say 4 for those. that is 18 faceoffs that have meaning in my eyes. That 18 faceoffs out of 60 or 30%. You get into OT and 100% of them are very important as you are already stated. That is a big difference from your 1.7%.

It is also evident that all FO, coaches and players care about them as well.

Anyone that's played hockey knows they are important. Obviously there are times they aren't as critical but in the grand scheme of things they are. Players used to dress with concussions just to take faceoffs and leave the ice immediately

 

[AllAboutAvs]

No, I am not telling you anything... The countless studies and data driven evidence is telling you, you're choosing to ignore it.


You obviously didn't read the article I linked fully.




Some games dont have a single important faceoff, like games that are lopsided scores very early on. Some games might have 3-4 important faceoffs.


It also certainly isn't evident that all players care about them... Mackinnon for example clearly doesn't give a shit.

I did read the article. You are the one choosing to ignore evidence that around 30% of them matters.

If you are referencing the article to support your point then it is the same thing as YOU telling me. Please don't split hair.

If they are not important why are most Cs trying to cheat to win them, why are wingers working hard and trying to cheat at faceoffs to help their C win them, why are Cs and wingers risking and sometimes taking penalties to win them, why do coaches want certain players/left or right handed players taking them?

If they are not important the NHL might as well just give the puck to the team on the PP and then blow the whistle to signal start of play. The rest of the time they might as well just alternate who gets the puck instead of having a faceoff.

 

[chet1926]

Faceoffs are incredibly overrated. 95% of all faceoffs are whatever.

There will be the occasional late faceoff in the offensive zone, like the one in SJ, that was important to win that led to the tying goal late.

What is nice about having a guy like RyJo is his ability to win a PP faceoff. We've probably won more PP faceoffs in the O zone already than we did all last season. Little sarcasm, but it's nice start with possession on the PP more often, rather than chasing down an easy clear every time.

 

[henchman21]

I think the truth is really in the middle here. 80+% of the time, faceoffs are just not really important. Situationally, they matter a ton. When you're in the offensive zone down 1 with an empty net... you better damn well win that faceoff. If you're closing out a game, you better damn well win that faceoff. The opening faceoff for the 2nd period... who the F cares?

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I think the truth is really in the middle here. 80+% of the time, faceoffs are just not really important. Situationally, they matter a ton. When you're in the offensive zone down 1 with an empty net... you better damn well win that faceoff. If you're closing out a game, you better damn well win that faceoff. The opening faceoff for the 2nd period... who the F cares?

True. Situation matters a lot.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Faceoffs are incredibly overrated. 95% of all faceoffs are whatever.

There will be the occasional late faceoff in the offensive zone, like the one in SJ, that was important to win that led to the tying goal late.

What is nice about having a guy like RyJo is his ability to win a PP faceoff. We've probably won more PP faceoffs in the O zone already than we did all last season. Little sarcasm, but it's nice start with possession on the PP more often, rather than chasing down an easy clear every time.

Yep exactly. And the evidence is overwhelming, but people just choose to ignore it.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I think the truth is really in the middle here. 80+% of the time, faceoffs are just not really important. Situationally, they matter a ton. When you're in the offensive zone down 1 with an empty net... you better damn well win that faceoff. If you're closing out a game, you better damn well win that faceoff. The opening faceoff for the 2nd period... who the F cares?

That is exactly my point.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I did read the article. You are the one choosing to ignore evidence that around 30% of them matters.

If you are referencing the article to support your point then it is the same thing as YOU telling me. Please don't split hair.

If they are not important why are most Cs trying to cheat to win them, why are wingers working hard and trying to cheat at faceoffs to help their C win them, why are Cs and wingers risking and sometimes taking penalties to win them, why do coaches want certain players/left or right handed players taking them?

If they are not important the NHL might as well just give the puck to the team on the PP and then blow the whistle to signal start of play. The rest of the time they might as well just alternate who gets the puck instead of having a faceoff.

Because you'd still rather win then lose, that's human nature. the result simply doesn't actually have an impact on the play. What happens immediately after has a way higher impact, like a winger winning the puck battle on a 50/50 draw, or the winger being able to get to the Dman quickly after a clean loss, etc. etc.


The actual result of the faceoff doesn't matter(Except for the 1-2 big ones a game on average), it's all about the decisions the players make immediately after.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Because you'd still rather win then lose, that's human nature. the result simply doesn't actually have an impact on the play. What happens immediately after has a way higher impact, like a winger winning the puck battle on a 50/50 draw, or the winger being able to get to the Dman quickly after a clean loss, etc. etc.


The actual result of the faceoff doesn't matter(Except for the 1-2 big ones a game on average), it's all about the decisions the players make immediately after.

But that is all part of winning or losing a faceoff. In fact the NHL doesn't score a faceoff win depending on if the C wins it or loses it. They score it on which team gains possession of the puck after the faceoff which include the wingers and even the dmen involvement. The C gets credit for it on the stat sheet but in many cases the TEAM won the faceoff.

When some of us say faceoffs matter we are not only talking about who wins the actual drop of the puck. It seems some of you think that's what a faceoff is. It is not. Who gain possession of the puck is part of it. Always has been.

 

[chet1926]

Yep exactly. And the evidence is overwhelming, but people just choose to ignore it.

Yep. The Avs won the Cup going 16-4 in the playoffs being one of the worst faceoff teams in the league.

Faceoffs are pretty meaningless, outside maybe 5-7 a game. And even those "big" draws are over hyped. We could have lost that "big" faceoff in SJ and still tied the game, it just gave us a slightly better chance.

 

[missionAvs]

Well what about the overwhelming evidence that the team that wins the opening faceoff of the 2nd period wins the game 100% of the time every time? I read that somewhere.

 

[Bowe Byrum]

I did read the article. You are the one choosing to ignore evidence that around 30% of them matters.

If you are referencing the article to support your point then it is the same thing as YOU telling me. Please don't split hair.

If they are not important why are most Cs trying to cheat to win them, why are wingers working hard and trying to cheat at faceoffs to help their C win them, why are Cs and wingers risking and sometimes taking penalties to win them, why do coaches want certain players/left or right handed players taking them?

If they are not important the NHL might as well just give the puck to the team on the PP and then blow the whistle to signal start of play. The rest of the time they might as well just alternate who gets the puck instead of having a faceoff.