News Article: Colorado Avalanche Media Coverage Part II

[Pokecheque]

Last home game and last road trip for LG. The end is nigh!

The timing of this makes me think she’s going to NHL Network so she can take over right when Jamie Hersch is on maternity leave.

They still haven’t named a replacement! It’s gotta be Alexis.

 

[Hasbro]

To be fair, others do it too.

Been seeing these for 35 years out of Philly.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

This is why advanced metrics are unreliable. He is by far not their worst defender. The only defenseman that is better defensively is EJ, and that's because of his physical advantages.

Girard is still obviously a work in progress, and had a sophomore type first half of the season with a few mistakes, but nothing like the regular egregious mistakes we've seen from past defenseman on this team like Guenin, Holden, Zanon, Redmond, or even Cole this year. Not even close to the regular defensive gaffes from Barrie in a lesser defensive role.

Put Barrie, Zadorov, Cole, Nemeth, or Barberio in a top pairing role all year and you'll see pretty quickly who's better and worse.

The funny this is, the advanced metrics that go beyond simple corsi numbers, are actually extremely telling of how good or bad a player/team is.

They give very accurate readings that correlate to team success or failures and the same applies to players. And like I said the actual eye test shows that Girard has his struggles in his own zone. But he's one of the golden boys on this team right now who's immune to criticism from a number of posters.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

The funny this is, the advanced metrics that go beyond simple corsi numbers, are actually extremely telling of how good or bad a player/team is.

They give very accurate readings that correlate to team success or failures and the same applies to players. And like I said the actual eye test shows that Girard has his struggles in his own zone. But he's one of the golden boys on this team right now who's immune to criticism from a number of posters.

I really can't speak for anyone other than myself, but I for one give a lot more passes to young d-men learning the game at the NHL level than I do to seasoned vets who make the same or worse mistakes at the same or higher frequency *cough Cole*. Now don't get me wrong, Girard is not perfect but to be honest, we haven't had even a near perfect D-man since Borque retired. Even Blake had warts and spells where he was making stupid decisions. I'll take Girard warts and all over much of what we've seen the last decade.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I really can't speak for anyone other than myself, but I for one give a lot more passes to young d-men learning the game at the NHL level than I do to seasoned vets who make the same or worse mistakes at the same or higher frequency *cough Cole*. Now don't get me wrong, Girard is not perfect but to be honest, we haven't had even a near perfect D-man since Borque retired. Even Blake had warts and spells where he was making stupid decisions. I'll take Girard warts and all over much of what we've seen the last decade.

Sure, and I'm not saying we shouldn't still be optimistic about Girard. But this whole conversation stemmed from Dater suggesting Girard has had a rough year and its true. He has struggled with the increased role and has shown some significant flaws in his game that need attention.


That's not to say we cant still be excited about what he can become in the future and some of the great things he does right now(And He absolutely is the best on our team at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone when he has it), just that we need to temper expectations a little and realize he still has a number of warts to his game that will need to be ironed out. Some of which simply may never be ironed out due to his size.


I was guilty of overreacting to Girards great start early this season as well.

 

[Foppa2118]

The funny this is, the advanced metrics that go beyond simple corsi numbers, are actually extremely telling of how good or bad a player/team is.

They give very accurate readings that correlate to team success or failures and the same applies to players. And like I said the actual eye test shows that Girard has his struggles in his own zone. But he's one of the golden boys on this team right now who's immune to criticism from a number of posters.

The eye test proves Girard had a bumpy first half of the season playing against top competition, but still wasn't bad enough to suggest he's worse defensively than guys like Barrie, Nemeth, Cole, and Zadorov playing against lesser competition.

The eye test also proves that Girard eliminated a lot of those sophomore mistakes, and has been one of, if not their best defenseman in the second half of the season. Against top competition, compared to the others playing against lesser competition.

None of this aligns with the metrics saying Girard is "by far the worst defender on the team when it comes to scoring chances allowed." These are completely misleading, and don't account for quality of competition, or make a distinction between his first and second half of the season.

I'm not trying to rag on Barrie in saying this, but they aren't even close defensively. Girard is MUCH better. That's how you know how off those metrics are.

 

[avsfan09]

The funny this is, the advanced metrics that go beyond simple corsi numbers, are actually extremely telling of how good or bad a player/team is.

They give very accurate readings that correlate to team success or failures and the same applies to players. And like I said the actual eye test shows that Girard has his struggles in his own zone. But he's one of the golden boys on this team right now who's immune to criticism from a number of posters.

He's "immune" imo because of his age. He makes mistakes yes but they are the type to be expected out of young defense. On top of that he's shown ability to bounce back from them quickly and work on his weakness.

 

[Pokecheque]

Really not that worried about a 20-year-old defenseman being shifted from a third pairing to top pairing role and having struggles to go with that, coupled with the fact EJ played like garbage to start the year and then the two goalies behind him proceeded to play like garbage for roughly two months.

If there's a defenseman you should be worried about, it's not Samuel. It's his defensive partner.

 

[avsfan09]

Sure, and I'm not saying we shouldn't still be optimistic about Girard. But this whole conversation stemmed from Dater suggesting Girard has had a rough year and its true. He has struggled with the increased role and has shown some significant flaws in his game that need attention.


That's not to say we cant still be excited about what he can become in the future and some of the great things he does right now(And He absolutely is the best on our team at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone when he has it), just that we need to temper expectations a little and realize he still has a number of warts to his game that will need to be ironed out. Some of which simply may never be ironed out due to his size.


I was guilty of overreacting to Girards great start early this season as well.

Also what flaws do you see as significant? I agree he's shown flaws but they don't seem significant to myself because he's shown he can address them.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Also what flaws do you see as significant? I agree he's shown flaws but they don't seem significant to myself because he's shown he can address them.

He is not a good defender at 5 on 5 when the puck isnt in our posession. Plain and simple. He gives up a high number of high danger chances and the eye test certainly suggests the same. His one on one coverage isnt great in part because of his size. It's an area he'll need to work on and while he could improve it will be a difficult task to be good in this regard. Though Spurgeon has shown it's not impossible.

 

[avsfan09]

He is not a good defender at 5 on 5 when the puck is on his stick. Plain and simple. He gives up a high number of high danger chances and the eye test certainly suggests the same. His one on one coverage isnt great in part because of his size. It's an area he'll need to work on and while he could improve it will be a difficult task to be good in this regard. Though Spurgeon has shown it's not impossible.

I guess my gripe would be that he's shown he's capable of both sides of that. He can be a great defender 5vs5 for periods/games. I see the issues but as a 20 year old defenseman I think he's shown alot of bounceback and shown that he can handle those issues or work them out eventually. His warts seem acceptable and don't cause me concern because I see that he knows how to address them.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm just gonna say it--I don't think EJ is necessarily a good partner for him.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick


This is what I am talking about. Of Dmen logging significant 5 on 5 minutes this season he is very close to the bottom when it comes to high danger. Only 14 guys in the league are worse. And a number of those guys simply play on bad teams that give up a high number of these opportunities. The Avs are not one of those teams.


Avs Dmen rank as following on the list:

Girard: 260 HDCA, 44.09%
Johnson: 238 HDCA, 47.35%
Cole: 172 HDCA, 51.55%
Barrie: 206 HDCA, 51.72%
Zadorov: 140 HDCA, 54.25%
Nemeth: 134 HDCA, 55.63%



Obviously Nemeth being sheltered and getting less minutes is impacting why he's so good on these charts. He really does not generate any offense from the back end but he is pretty strong defensively with the minutes he does get. Likewise with Cole.

And on the same wavelength Barrie does a lot better in this regard than people realize as well. He's a high event player essentially but brings more good to the table then bad. EJ and Girard do not fare particularly well though. But Girard especially.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm just gonna say it--I don't think EJ is necessarily a good partner for him.

I agree. EJ has always been at his best when he can hog the puck. I honestly think Cole wouldn’t be he worst partner for EJ. Roll something like

Cole-EJ
Z-Barrie
Nemeth-Girard

*could switch G and Barrie as well.

 

[henchman21]

And on the same wavelength Barrie does a lot better in this regard than people realize as well. He's a high event player essentially but brings more good to the table then bad.

You better run for cover!

 

[Foppa2118]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick


This is what I am talking about. Of Dmen logging significant 5 on 5 minutes this season he is very close to the bottom when it comes to high danger. Only 14 guys in the league are worse. And a number of those guys simply play on bad teams that give up a high number of these opportunities. The Avs are not one of those teams.


Avs Dmen rank as following on the list:

Girard: 260 HDCA, 44.09%
Johnson: 238 HDCA, 47.35%
Cole: 172 HDCA, 51.55%
Barrie: 206 HDCA, 51.72%
Zadorov: 140 HDCA, 54.25%
Nemeth: 134 HDCA, 55.63%



Obviously Nemeth being sheltered and getting less minutes is impacting why he's so good on these charts. He really does not generate any offense from the back end but he is pretty strong defensively with the minutes he does get. Likewise with Cole.

And on the same wavelength Barrie does a lot better in this regard than people realize as well. He's a high event player essentially but brings more good to the table then bad. EJ and Girard do not fare particularly well though. But Girard especially.

Also on that list:

3 - John Carlson - 298 HDCA - 44.30%
11 - Adam Larsson - 248 HDCA - 48.16
15 - Sam Girard - 260 HDCA - 44.09%
23 - Seth Jones - 251 HDCA - 48.14%
25 - Brent Seabrook - 247 HDCA - 42.69%
29 - Jacob Trouba - 242 HDCA - 46.70%
33 - Drew Doughty - 241 HDCA - 45.72

36 - Erik Johnson - 238 HDCA - 47.35%
68 - Tyson Barrie - 206 HDCA - 51.72%
109 - Ian Cole - 172 HDCA - 51.55%
145 - Nikita Zadorov - 140 HDCA - 54.25%
152 - Patrick Nemeth - 134 HDCA - 55.63%

129 - Nick Holden - 141 HDCA - 53.92%
156 - Mike Green - 124 HDCA - 44.13%

This is proof that these numbers are not accurate rankings of defensive ability.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Another thing about those numbers in general... Yeah advanced metrics aren't everything but they're certainly capable of painting a pretty accurate picture. Just look at a number of guys sitting at the top of those charts, especially the ones who have logged a lot of minutes.


Spurgeon(Who is a fantastic example of what Girard could certainly become if he can really work these warts out of his game), Parayko, Karlsson, Suter, Hamilton, Slavin, Pesce, Letange, Klingberg, Brodin, McDonagh, Burns, Pietrangelo...



Some of them do very well because they simply dont give up a lot of High danger chances while they're on the ice(Pesce, Pietrangelo, Klingberg, McDonagh), while others are on the ice for a number of dangerous chances against, but do even better in the offensive zone(Burns, Slavin, Suter, Hamilton).


A big factor is certainly the difficulty of minutes as well. But it does paint a picture that suggests Girard has work to do in the defensive zone. Unless you're adamantly against advanced stats and refuse to acknowledge them, the evidence exists.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Also on that list:

3 - John Carlson - 298 HDCA - 44.30%
11 - Adam Larsson - 248 HDCA - 48.16
15 - Sam Girard - 260 HDCA - 44.09%
23 - Seth Jones - 251 HDCA - 48.14%
25 - Brent Seabrook - 247 HDCA - 42.69%
29 - Jacob Trouba - 242 HDCA - 46.70%
33 - Drew Doughty - 241 HDCA - 45.72

36 - Erik Johnson - 238 HDCA - 47.35%
68 - Tyson Barrie - 206 HDCA - 51.72%
109 - Ian Cole - 172 HDCA - 51.55%
145 - Nikita Zadorov - 140 HDCA - 54.25%
152 - Patrick Nemeth - 134 HDCA - 55.63%

This is proof that these numbers are not accurate rankings of defensive ability.

No, it really isn't proof at all. The only one that really stands out in a surprising way in that entire group is Carlson. And its always been known that his defensive game was his weakest point, but it is surprising to see him that low, although the Caps in general are not a great 5 on 5 team.ntract in the NHL. Jones is another high event player similar to Barrie, but the Jackets especially haven't

 

[Foppa2118]

No, it really isn't proof at all. The only one that really stands out in a surprising way in that entire group is Carlson. And its always been known that his defensive game was his weakest point, but it is surprising to see him that low, although the Caps in general are not a great 5 on 5 team.ntract in the NHL. Jones is another high event player similar to Barrie, but the Jackets especially haven't

Is it really accurate to say Barrie, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth are all better defensively than Carlson, Jones, Seabrook, Trouba, and Doughty because they're ranked higher in HDCA?

Are Barrie, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth better than Carlson, Jones, Seabrook, Trouba, and Doughty because their HDCF% is higher?

Also I added a couple names at the bottom. Are Holden and Mike Green among the best in the league defensively because they rank at the bottom of HDCA?

 

[Foppberg]

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Is it really accurate to say Barrie, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth are all better defensively than Carlson, Jones, Seabrook, Trouba, and Doughty because they're ranked higher in HDCA?

Are Barrie, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth better than Carlson, Jones, Seabrook, Trouba, and Doughty because their HDCF% is higher?

Also I added a couple names at the bottom. Are Holden and Mike Green among the best in the league defensively because they rank at the bottom of HDCA?

Mike Green is as bad as Girard is at just 44%.


Obviously other factors are to be considered. A team that's bad 5 on 5 will make it much more difficult for one individual to do well in a statistic like this and vice versa a team that is great at 5 on 5 will inflate stats of less stellar defenders.


A really bad picture gets painted when you're on an above average team like like the Avs are at 5 on 5, and yet you're still one if the worst in the league and by far the worst on your own team. And that's the picture Girard is painted in.

It says one of two things, either Girard is playing competition simply too good for him to deal with, or he's just not that good defensively right now.


Anyway it's clear your going to refute any stats thrown at you just like you do with Barrie so I'm done with the subject. Feel free to get the last word in.

 

[Avalanche]

Nate's about to turn it up another notch.

Get ready y'all

 

[Foppa2118]

Nate's about to turn it up another notch.

Get ready y'all

I like it. Hopefully he's not referring to the World Championships.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Nate's about to turn it up another notch.

Get ready y'all

As long as it doesn't mean he will start trying to do everything on his own like trying to go through 3-4 players. With that being said I really like his attitude. He wants to reach another level. Great but don't forget to use your linemates.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

Since Nate doesn't have the horrible leader on his line anymore he should be all set.