Confirmed with Link: COL/WSH Grubauer, Orpik for Avs 2018 2nd round pick

[Foppberg]

If Grubauer becomes that good I'd be floored. I'm expecting more like a Dubynk level guy.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Quick statistical comparison over the last two years:

Bernier: 67 starts, 0.552 QS%, 2.82 All Sit. GSAA, -4.41 5v5 GSAA, 0.930 expected 5v5 SV%, 0.927 actual 5v5 SV%

Grubuaer: 47 starts, 0.681 QS%, 18.27 All Sit. GSAA, 23.27 5v5 GSAA, 0.919 expected 5v5 SV%, 0.939 actual 5v5 SV%

 

[LieutenantDangle]

Quick statistical comparison over the last two years:

Bernier: 67 starts, 0.552 QS%, 2.82 All Sit. GSAA, -4.41 5v5 GSAA, 0.930 expected 5v5 SV%, 0.927 actual 5v5 SV%

Grubuaer: 47 starts, 0.681 QS%, 18.27 All Sit. GSAA, 23.27 5v5 GSAA, 0.919 expected 5v5 SV%, 0.939 actual 5v5 SV%

Can you explain what all this means to the laymen such as myself?

 

[Alex Jones]

Can you explain what all this means to the laymen such as myself?

Suggests that Bernier is not very good and Grubhauer is a significant upgrade

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Can you explain what all this means to the laymen such as myself?

QS% = Quality Starts % for which the equation is Quality Starts/Starts. A goalie posts a Quality Start when they start a game and post a SV% equal or above league average SV% (or a replacement level start while seeing 20 or less shots). A ~0.520 QS% is average, a 0.600 QS% is considered very good and after that you get into elite territory. Overall what this tracks is how consistent a goalie is at providing his team the best chance (~75%) at winning a game. QS% for the NHL can be found on hockey reference. AHL/CHL QS% data isn't tracked except for one place that I know of.

GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average. Based on the amount of shots and the league average SV% it tracks how many goals above average a specific goalie would have saved. You can apply it to all situations whether they are PP, PK, 5v5, etc. What this means for the stats laid out above is that Grubauer is a monster at 5v5. All situation GSAA can be found on hockey reference, the other GSAA numbers are found on corsica.

Expected 5v5 SV% = It's exactly what it's name sounds like. Based on the factors surrounding each shot what is a realistic expectation for how high of a SV% a goalie should post. It's crazy looking above and seeing that Grubauer was facing higher quality of shots than Bernier even when just looking at this season. And for those wondering Varly outplayed his expected SV% at 5v5 and all situations. This is found on corsica.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

If he doesn't work out we can always throw him off the Nakatomi Tower.

 

[AvsGuy]

If Grubauer has a future at the Rask/Rinne level, I’m not sure who would balk at trading a 2nd round pick for a Vezina level goalie

 

[LieutenantDangle]

@Gigantor The Goalie what you’re saying is that over the last two seasons Grubauer s qs% was borderline elite. If his actual 5v5 sv% was significantly higher than his expected 5v5 sv% does that indicate he’s really good at 5v5 or that he’s due for regression?

Thanks again for all your insight good sir/ma’am

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

@Gigantor The Goalie what you’re saying is that over the last two seasons Grubauer s qs% was borderline elite. If his actual 5v5 sv% was significantly higher than his expected 5v5 sv% does that indicate he’s really good at 5v5 or that he’s due for regression?

Thanks again for all your insight good sir/ma’am

Yeah Grubauer was pretty much gold every time he ended up starting in the regular season. It just indicates he's really good at 5v5. I wouldn't expect the same difference though between his xSV% and actual SV% this year as the difference was really high this year but he should still be playing above his xSV%. Generally good goalies consistently play above their xSV%.

 

[CalderKing21]

That's definitely pushing it...


Grubauer has starter potential and I'd say a good chance at becoming a legit starter in the league. But I dont see him being an elite goalie, nevermind being franchise level.

Bernier has proven that he's not capable of being a starter. Far too inconsistent both within a single game and over the course of a full season.


Bernier to Grubs is a big upgrade as we get younger, and a better goalie. But it's a little on the outlandish side to suggest Grubs has franchise potential. He's not going to be the next Price/Lundqvist/Luongo. More along the lines of a Rask/Bishop/Rinne I would say.

Not really. It was the same with Varly except he couldn't stay healthy. Gru has the same type of ceiling.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

New cap work around? Trade guy to a team willing to buy him out, then resign him for peanuts, and peanuts for your cap space, and he still ends up making basically what he was going to in the first place. I'm sure the league won't like this, esp. when it starts happening repeatedly.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Its cap management. Datsyuk contract, Pronger contract, Horton contact, and so on...

 

[Pokecheque]

Eh, fine by me. If the defending Cup champs want to hamstring themselves by re-signing a bad player they literally traded a key asset to get rid of in the first place, I've no issue with that.

 

[Foppberg]

Management/owners will always find the loopholes to get out of shitty contracts.

 

[dahrougem2]

New cap work around? Trade guy to a team willing to buy him out, then resign him for peanuts, and peanuts for your cap space, and he still ends up making basically what he was going to in the first place. I'm sure the league won't like this, esp. when it starts happening repeatedly.

Sure, but you have to give up something good along the way. Not like we did Washington a favour for the sake of doing them a favour. They paid us to do them a favour in the form of Grubauer. Nothing wrong with it IMO.

 

[McMetal]

Sure, but you have to give up something good along the way. Not like we did Washington a favour for the sake of doing them a favour. They paid us to do them a favour in the form of Grubauer. Nothing wrong with it IMO.

Exactly, they are still ultimately paying a cost in assets to save cap space, which is a practice as old as the salary cap and well within the bounds of the CBA.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm 100% sure that it was agreed upon when they made the Grubs trade and Orpik was aware of it, too.

That was not the Joe Sakic we know to immediately announce that he'd buy out Orpik on the same day that the trade was made so he (Orpik) "could pursue whatever he wants".

Now the Caps could afford to sign Carlson and keep Orpik (who didn't lose a penny in the process).

 

[Pokecheque]

I have more of an issue with teams not qualifying RFAs and then re-signing them for cheap, but even then it's not a big issue, at least not yet.

 

[AvsGuy]

Its cap management. Datsyuk contract, Pronger contract, Horton contact, and so on...

Except they are all out of the NHL. Orpik is returning to the same team he played for last month.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think that probably explains why Sakic wasn't at all interested in keeping him, despite pursuing him as a UFA. Wasn't part of the deal.

 

[Frank8]

If Grubauer becomes that good I'd be floored. I'm expecting more like a Dubynk level guy.

So, awesome?

 

[McMetal]

I have more of an issue with teams not qualifying RFAs and then re-signing them for cheap, but even then it's not a big issue, at least not yet.

Even there, once the QO doesn't go through, the player is a UFA and has every right to say no to his former team instead of signing for less than the QO and go sign somewhere else. That's a risk the team takes when they try to pull that one because it gives the player an out. If the player is willing to negotiate that beforehand, that's still putting the power in their hands.

 

[Pokecheque]

Even there, once the QO doesn't go through, the player is a UFA and has every right to say no to his former team instead of signing for less than the QO and go sign somewhere else. That's a risk the team takes when they try to pull that one because it gives the player an out. If the player is willing to negotiate that beforehand, that's still putting the power in their hands.

I know, that's why I said I don't really have that much of an issue, at least not yet.

It was more to serve the point that I have even less of an issue with what's going on with Orpik than what went down with DSP.

 

[Hasbro]

Considering this helped the Avs improve their goaltender situation at less asset cost, so I'm ok with the Caps circumvention in this case