Confirmed with Link: [COL/ARI] Avs Acquire G D.Kuemper($1m ret.) for D C.Timmins + 2022 COL 1st + 2024 COL 3rd(cond.)

[shadow1]

Philip Grubauer is a solid goalie. If Sakic had given him the same $5.9M x 6 deal that Seattle did, it would've freed up a lot of mental space for the fanbase because the goaltending would no longer have been a question mark.

But lets face it - Grubauer isn't going to live up to that deal. Frankly, he was inconsistent his first two years in Colorado and though he looked like a star for most of 2020-2021, the Avalanche gave up fewer shots per game than any team in the NHL in the last 8 years. Sakic basically called it out when asked about Grubauer signing in Seattle - "he helped us as much as we helped him."

My opinion on Darcy Kuemper is biased because I wanted the Avalanche to bring in him before they were linked to him. Ultimately, I feel like they brought in a star goalie. Kuemper's the type of goalie that can steal a playoff series, which the Avs haven't had in a long time.

There are obviously health concerns, but Colorado didn't bring in Kuemper to ride him into the ground during the regular season. Pavel Francouz can start 30-35 games and Jonas Johansson can fill in against some bottom feeders (Colorado plays Arizona and Buffalo a combined 6 times this year).

 

[henchman21]

Grubauer was good prior to just last season. He took the starting job from Varly with his play in 18-19, then was oft injured but good in 19-20, great last season. If you just compare the 18-19 and 19-20 seasons between Kuemper and Grubi... the numbers are far closer that I think people would expect. Even on pure workloads...

 

[Avsfan1921]

Avs aren't really using that money, and there are ways to manage and correct this. This will be a continual issue for the team and failure to pay UFAs that leave will result in a heavier reliance on drafting and trades. The Avs are not organizationally deep enough to continue to go into the trade well. They are also not a good enough drafting team to supplement depth consistently.

I 100% agree.

On the organizational depth topic, this is why I'm surprised that everyone is in an outcry on the moves made this offseason. We don't have the depth to fill in internally, and we are at the cap so we were bound to be less of a team than last year on paper. This will likely be the trend moving forward and the reason we won't have a super long window. Our stars, of which there are more than on most squads, are signed to fair contracts and as such it will always be hard to maintain depth.

I don't see it changing any time soon but the one saving grace to me is that we have made a couple savvy moves with Girird and Toews. When the time comes I really do hope we are able to move one for a solid 2nd line player with age and term on their side because we will not be able to retain our current top 4 as time moves on. Hopefully this is later rather than sooner but it will need to be done to help offset our lack of internal options at F, imo.

On the money management side, I realize there is Compher and Johnson but is there anything else that can be done on their end? I'm not seeing many other options there but I could be missing something. If those are the two main issues I'd argue that money management is actually a strong suit of this organization. We have minimal egregious contracts and really only one realistically unmovable one in EJ's. Even then his is not horrendous if healthy. None of our star players are currently overpayed through what is considered our window, although time will tell with Landeskogs at the end.

 

[The Abusement Park]

For me, that is the last trade I'd make as I value Byram quite a bit more than any prospect we have and view him as our only true blue chipper. I believe he will outperform anything Timmins has done quite handily from Game 1 next season. I just don't view the talent level between the goalies to be enough of a gap to consider moving Byram. The risk of Byram being vastly superior to Timmins outweighs the injury concerns for me to consider this trade over the others.

I just don't think it makes nearly as much sense to give up assets for a UFA goalie when you can solve the issue for 6 years by paying a little bit more.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

So here's a question, if you HAD to choose one of these trades, which do you take?

1st, Timmins for Kuemper
1st, Barron for Kuemper
1st, Newhook for Gibson
1st, Byram for Gibson
Assuming the same 15% or whatever was retained on all deals?

1st + Newhook for Gibson.

Then, probably 1st + Timmy for Kuemper tbh.



1st + Byram for Gibson is where I'd definitely say no though. I want nothing to do with that deal.

 

[Avsfan1921]

I just don't think it makes nearly as much sense to give up assets for a UFA goalie when you can solve the issue for 6 years by paying a little bit more.

I get it, and my first wish was that we'd have just signed Grubaur, but the situations between him being UFA this year and Kuemper next year is quite different to me. If Gru would have been UFA next year as opposed to this, I bet the Avs would have signed him to that contract as we have a lot more money coming off the books next year, making for more options to round out the rest of the team.

 

[shadow1]

Grubauer was good prior to just last season. He took the starting job from Varly with his play in 18-19, then was oft injured but good in 19-20, great last season. If you just compare the 18-19 and 19-20 seasons between Kuemper and Grubi... the numbers are far closer that I think people would expect. Even on pure workloads...

Grubauer was definitely good in those seasons, but he struggled with consistency (especially in 2019):

2019:
First 28GP: 11-9-3, .901 SV%
Final 9GP: 7-0-2, .953 SV%
Overall: 18-9-5, .917

2020:
First 27 GP: 12-10-4, .909 SV%
Final 9 GP: 6-2-0, .939 SV%
Overall: 18-12-4, .916 SV%

To his credit, he got hot exactly when you would've wanted him to. But the Avs definitely had a problem in net for part of the 2018-2019 season (both Grubauer and Varlamov literally could not stop a beach ball for a solid month), and last year the team really leaned on Pavel Francouz, even before the Grubauer injury in the outdoor game against LA.

I wish Grubauer all the best in Seattle, I hope he lives up to his deal and I hope the Kraken are good (though Francis might have locked them in as a mediocre team with his management so far). I'm just glad the Avs didn't lock him up for more than half a decade.

 

[Pokecheque]

Graves was mediocre with the puck on his stick including icing it. Dude was a reckless shot blocker and bless his heart for putting his face in danger several times. PK was excellent this season and Graves was our top PK guy by ice time and role. Avs still haven’t replaced that and EJ?.. yikes. I hope he can stay healthy but yikes.

Bednar absolutely overplayed Girard and Makar this year. Really hurt the team as Girard looked beat to snot by the time playoffs rolled around. Yet he refused to play Timmins on PK. Jost did get some PK time in prior seasons but Bednar has this stupid thing for “vets” so lesser players like Nieto got Pk time and performed meh in that roll.

Maybe Timmins will be good at it. He’s got far superior puck skills to Graves. But he doesn’t have much bite to his game and we’re all terrified of his next concussion.

Yeah, I'm hella concerned about Timmins' durability going forward as well, and it's not like his NHL upside has been determined. He showed a lot of promise in an otherwise poor showing by the team in the postseason though.

Nieto was perfectly fine on the PK. Exactly the type of defensive forward with speed you want in that role. The problem with the Avs' PK is systemic. It's really passive, relies way too much on shot blocking and way, WAY too much on goaltending, and does nearly nothing to really generate shorthanded scoring chances. It's really something that Bednar is usually so bold with his lineup choices and overall scheme, but is insanely conservative when it comes to the penalty kill.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I get it, and my first wish was that we'd have just signed Grubaur, but the situations between him being UFA this year and Kuemper next year is quite different to me. If Gru would have been UFA next year as opposed to this, I bet the Avs would have signed him to that contract as we have a lot more money coming off the books next year, making for more options to round out the rest of the team.

How is it any different? If Kuemper has a normal year for him he'll be able to get 6mil on the market. Than we're back to where we were this year with Grub. We saved money this year but go right back to the same issue we had this summer.

 

[Belgican]

So here's a question, if you HAD to choose one of these trades, which do you take?

1st, Timmins for Kuemper
1st, Barron for Kuemper
1st, Newhook for Gibson
1st, Byram for Gibson
Assuming the same 15% or whatever was retained on all deals?

1st, Timmins for Kuemper

 

[henchman21]

I 100% agree.

On the organizational depth topic, this is why I'm surprised that everyone is in an outcry on the moves made this offseason. We don't have the depth to fill in internally, and we are at the cap so we were bound to be less of a team than last year on paper. This will likely be the trend moving forward and the reason we won't have a super long window. Our stars, of which there are more than on most squads, are signed to fair contracts and as such it will always be hard to maintain depth.

I don't see it changing any time soon but the one saving grace to me is that we have made a couple savvy moves with Girird and Toews. When the time comes I really do hope we are able to move one for a solid 2nd line player with age and term on their side because we will not be able to retain our current top 4 as time moves on. Hopefully this is later rather than sooner but it will need to be done to help offset our lack of internal options at F, imo.

On the money management side, I realize there is Compher and Johnson but is there anything else that can be done on their end? I'm not seeing many other options there but I could be missing something. If those are the two main issues I'd argue that money management is actually a strong suit of this organization. We have minimal egregious contracts and really only one realistically unmovable one in EJ's. Even then his is not horrendous if healthy. None of our star players are currently overpayed through what is considered our window, although time will tell with Landeskogs at the end.

I've been in this outcry for a few years now that the Avs are pissing away their window and not going for it hard enough. That the window isn't as long as people think prior to a re-tool. The previous two seasons were the best two seasons to add as much as possible and spend the future to win. To me, the outcry is less about how this played out, but more of a realization that the team isn't likely to get better from last year's team. It isn't likely to happen this season. It isn't likely to happen next season. It isn't likely when MacK's contract comes in. For the Avs to get substansially better, they need a large step forward in their drafting to bring in high end talent from later in the draft.

I think a defensemen move is just a matter of time at this point. By next summer, it will be likely that the Avs lost the whole second line from last year's in 12 months. With only Newhook as a viable young player coming up. That is painful and the area that can be trimmed to fill a hole is defense. I just hope that when they do, they solve the 2C issue for 4-5 years with a high end guy.

I'll argue up and down that the Avs' aversion to bad contracts while paying depth too much is a major weakness. They don't get locked into many bad contracts, but they'll gladly overpay Cole, Calvert, Frank, etc. Even Jost today, the $2m is a market deal for him as a RFA with arbitration rights, but for what his role should be on the team, he's a half million overpaid. Compher didn't develop as they wanted, but it is similar... they paid a half million more hoping he'd round out. He hasn't. Those nickels and dimes add up to cap issues. Even last year, having the overpayments to Calvert, Cole, Dong... have caused a 1.7m overage for this year. These little overpayments hurt. To me, proper cap management begins with taking care of the core players to round out a roster. Identify them, pay whatever it takes, trim the fat on the depth. Who cares if you have a scrub 4th line and bottom pairing as long have solid 1-3 Cs, a few great wings, top 4D and solid starting G. The Avs have screwed up their bottom of the lineup for years that has lead to the situation of pinching pennies on the core.

 

[EdAVSfan]

How is it any different? If Kuemper has a normal year for him he'll be able to get 6mil on the market. Than we're back to where we were this year with Grub. We saved money this year but go right back to the same issue we had this summer.

The thing is, we don’t know specifically the reason why they didn’t sign him. Was it the term? The AAV? The NTCs? Combo of them.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Grubauer was 9th in league save % among starters playing in front of a team that was posting goofy shot metrics on a nightly basis.

I think he’s a top-15 goalie, but the Vezina trophy nomination is not indicative of who he is as a player.

Grubi’s playoff numbers are fine, but he didn’t have the clutch gene in Colorado.

In elimination games : .770, .864, .889 and .700 in his one playoff start against Dallas.

I don’t think the Avs have upgraded significantly in net, but I do think they’re a bit better overall.

 

[Hasbro]

So here's a question, if you HAD to choose one of these trades, which do you take?

1st, Timmins for Kuemper
1st, Barron for Kuemper
1st, Newhook for Gibson
1st, Byram for Gibson
Assuming the same 15% or whatever was retained on all deals?

4 1sts, Timmins for Kuemper + Crouse

 

[Avsfan1921]

How is it any different? If Kuemper has a normal year for him he'll be able to get 6mil on the market. Than we're back to where we were this year with Grub. We saved money this year but go right back to the same issue we had this summer.

It's different because there is more money coming off the books next year as opposed to this year. It will be easier to tie up that 6 million on goaltending when over $16 million is freed up.

 

[henchman21]

Grubauer was definitely good in those seasons, but he struggled with consistency (especially in 2019):



To his credit, he got hot exactly when you would've wanted him to. But the Avs definitely had a problem in net for part of the 2018-2019 season (both Grubauer and Varlamov literally could not stop a beach ball for a solid month), and last year the team really leaned on Pavel Francouz, even before the Grubauer injury in the outdoor game against LA.

I wish Grubauer all the best in Seattle, I hope he lives up to his deal and I hope the Kraken are good (though Francis might have locked them in as a mediocre team with his management so far). I'm just glad the Avs didn't lock him up for more than half a decade.

Grubi is pretty inconsistent, but most goalies really are. I would say that is actually the single area where Kuemper is better than Grubi (and most goalies in the NHL). Kuemper doesn't give up many bad goals, and he doesn't have a ton of stinkers. His QS% is always high. IMO that is his single best attribute. Now with that, Kuemper doesn't have Grubi's big save ability. He is actually middle to lower end of the NHL starters. His peers there are more Griess and Khudobin than they are Vasi and Lehner. Kuemper just doesn't give up the garbage. Kinda opposite of Grubi... Grubi can make the difficult saves with the best of the NHL, but he is due a stinker every other game.

I don't see Kuemper as an upgrade on Grubi. They are different goalies. Kuemper is more consistent and more injury prone. Grubi has a higher end ceiling and level of play, while you have to deal with a number of valleys.

 

[henchman21]

It's different because there is more money coming off the books next year as opposed to this year. It will be easier to tie up that 6 million on goaltending when over $16 million is freed up.

But... at the same cap... how do the Avs deal with having all of Nuke, Kadri, Burkie, Kuemper, and Frank as UFAs? Of that group, maybe only Frankie gets a paycut. Nuke and Kadri are looking at 1-2m more. Burkie could be similar or if he has a 30g year (he has the ability), maybe he pushes 6-6.5. The cap situation is actually worse next season than this season...

 

[The Abusement Park]

It's different because there is more money coming off the books next year as opposed to this year. It will be easier to tie up that 6 million on goaltending when over $16 million is freed up.

And we will have more holes to fill next year than this offseason. Gibson might cost more to acquire but you have your goalie for the next half decade. Next offseason we have to deal with filling the 2C, 2W’s, 3W’s, 1G, backup... etc

Lot of holes next offseason.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The thing is, we don’t know specifically the reason why they didn’t sign him. Was it the term? The AAV? The NTCs? Combo of them.

And assuming Kuemper has a normal season at 40+ games why wouldn’t he try and get the same contract Binnington, Markstrom, and Gru have?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

And we will have more holes to fill next year than this offseason. Gibson might cost more to acquire but you have your goalie for the next half decade. Next offseason we have to deal with filling the 2C, 2W’s, 3W’s, 1G, backup... etc

Lot of holes next offseason.

Could be looking at around $38M in cap which should help, but they will have to busy to fill out depth.

 

[Richard88]

Grub was always one of my all time favorites, he was my damned go to meme whenever we beat a solid team, with the quote, "y'all just got Grubauer'd"

BUT, the more I read / hear / see, the more I think at worst this is a parody trade (but with a 3.5M caphit)...if he goes okay, let's re-up him quick (after 30-40 games). I think we all hate seeing a Vezina finalist go, it sucks, but we have to be open minded to Kumper to be fair. He's a massive unit, too - Teaser :


Another:

Loving the high glove hand....

 

[henchman21]

And assuming Kuemper has a normal season at 40+ games why wouldn’t he try and get the same contract Binnington, Markstrom, and Gru have?

If the Avs don't pay it, somebody else will. Chicago, Edmonton, Toronto, Pitt, Washington, and Philly could all easily be on the market for a starting goalie. Some probably get solved, but I'd bet 3 or 4 of them will be looking for answers in net next summer.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Could be looking at around $38M in cap which should help, but they will have to busy to fill out depth.

It’s a lot of cap, but finding Kadri and Bura replacements will be expensive. Finding a starting goalie will be expensive.

 

[Balthazar]

Grubi is pretty inconsistent, but most goalies really are. I would say that is actually the single area where Kuemper is better than Grubi (and most goalies in the NHL). Kuemper doesn't give up many bad goals, and he doesn't have a ton of stinkers. His QS% is always high. IMO that is his single best attribute. Now with that, Kuemper doesn't have Grubi's big save ability. He is actually middle to lower end of the NHL starters. His peers there are more Griess and Khudobin than they are Vasi and Lehner. Kuemper just doesn't give up the garbage. Kinda opposite of Grubi... Grubi can make the difficult saves with the best of the NHL, but he is due a stinker every other game.

But that's exactly what you want behind a team like the Avs that doesn't allow a ton of quality shots. You just want a steady, solid goalie capable of making routine saves and not screw up. That's a perfect match.

 

[Avsfan1921]

I've been in this outcry for a few years now that the Avs are pissing away their window and not going for it hard enough. That the window isn't as long as people think prior to a re-tool. The previous two seasons were the best two seasons to add as much as possible and spend the future to win. To me, the outcry is less about how this played out, but more of a realization that the team isn't likely to get better from last year's team. It isn't likely to happen this season. It isn't likely to happen next season. It isn't likely when MacK's contract comes in. For the Avs to get substansially better, they need a large step forward in their drafting to bring in high end talent from later in the draft.

I think a defensemen move is just a matter of time at this point. By next summer, it will be likely that the Avs lost the whole second line from last year's in 12 months. With only Newhook as a viable young player coming up. That is painful and the area that can be trimmed to fill a hole is defense. I just hope that when they do, they solve the 2C issue for 4-5 years with a high end guy.

I'll argue up and down that the Avs' aversion to bad contracts while paying depth too much is a major weakness. They don't get locked into many bad contracts, but they'll gladly overpay Cole, Calvert, Frank, etc. Even Jost today, the $2m is a market deal for him as a RFA with arbitration rights, but for what his role should be on the team, he's a half million overpaid. Compher didn't develop as they wanted, but it is similar... they paid a half million more hoping he'd round out. He hasn't. Those nickels and dimes add up to cap issues. Even last year, having the overpayments to Calvert, Cole, Dong... have caused a 1.7m overage for this year. These little overpayments hurt. To me, proper cap management begins with taking care of the core players to round out a roster. Identify them, pay whatever it takes, trim the fat on the depth. Who cares if you have a scrub 4th line and bottom pairing as long have solid 1-3 Cs, a few great wings, top 4D and solid starting G. The Avs have screwed up their bottom of the lineup for years that has lead to the situation of pinching pennies on the core.

I agree 100% on your opinion of drafting philosophy . While I haven't posted much up until fairly recently, I have been a lurker for years and know for a fact that you've been calling them out on these issues for a very long time. I am very much in the same corner, they have opted for safe, low ceiling players for far too long and stayed within their comfort zone for the last 15+ years. I also agree that last year was THE year to do what they could to go all in. However, I'm not 100% certain that it will be their best chance as the next two years there is a lot of room for growth on defense and if they are together over the next two years, could really help with the lack of depth at F.

To your second paragraph, this too is what I see coming. I just hope that we can prolong it to the end of the 22-23 season to allow this group of defensemen to go for two runs and see what happens. I very much think that any chance of playoff success will be on goaltending and how the defense can help make up for the lack of depth. In Toews final year tough decisions will need to be made and that trade for your 2nd line C will need to be made. Be it from Girard, Byram or Toews, I don't know but one will be gone.

To your point of trimming the fat of middling players I would agree if it had hurt them to date but they've been known to make significant offers to high end players such as Panarin. I've yet to see their overpaid middling players cost them as a direct result. Grubaur could be argued, sure, but we don't know if it was a money issue or not so I'm heistant to pin it on that. Personally, I think management has tiers of players and their worth, and Sakic didn't want to sway from that model when dealing with Grubaur. It was not so much what Grubaurs cost was to retain him rather what they were willing to pay for a good goalie with consistancy issues. This is the exact reason I don't expect to see any contract extension with Kuemper as they'd like to see how he fits the system and if his health can be relied upon.

I do differ philosophically however in that overall depth is more important than star power. There needs to be a balance obviously, as I'm sure you'd agree on the other side of the fence, but depth to me is the cornerstone to success and why I am really hoping our defense can take the nest step, minimizing the issues we will likely have up front this season.