Confirmed with Link: [COL/ARI] Avs Acquire G D.Kuemper($1m ret.) for D C.Timmins + 2022 COL 1st + 2024 COL 3rd(cond.)

[EdAVSfan]

What's frustrating about Sakic and those comments about "he helped us as much as we helped him" is that he went out and spent a boatload to get Darcy Kuemper.

If you seriously are of the opinion that Grubauer wasn't all that and a bag of chips, then you need to sign one of the 5,000 UFA goalies that are average and believe that the team can prop them up.

Mrazek is making 3.8M
Rittich is making 1.25M
Holtby is making 2M
Halak is making 1.5M
Reimer is making 2.25M
Raanta is making 2M

I'm not saying that would be my strategy from the get-go, but if you're so confident in your team's ability to suppress shots and be the reason why a goaltender gets a Vezina nomination, then bring in one of the bargain bin guys to tandem with Francouz and spend those other assets to make the team around them even better.

Nothing about what Sakic did makes sense. Like I get it, he needed a starter and got caught not only in a bidding war, but a bidding war for one of like two starting goalies readily available (the other being Gibson). But the sequence of events and decisions is baffling.

It’s entirely possible that the Gru negotiation went like the Kuemper one.
They might have come close to agreeing and then Seattle came in with a higher offer, longer term, NMC, and they told Joe to match it. He said no, and it was already too late at that point. Other goalies had signed.

It’s unlike Joe to be backed into a corner. I suspect Gru may have turned the negotiation on them.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

What's frustrating about Sakic and those comments about "he helped us as much as we helped him" is that he went out and spent a boatload to get Darcy Kuemper.

If you seriously are of the opinion that Grubauer wasn't all that and a bag of chips, then you need to sign one of the 5,000 UFA goalies that are average and believe that the team can prop them up.

Mrazek is making 3.8M
Rittich is making 1.25M
Holtby is making 2M
Halak is making 1.5M
Reimer is making 2.25M
Raanta is making 2M

I'm not saying that would be my strategy from the get-go, but if you're so confident in your team's ability to suppress shots and be the reason why a goaltender gets a Vezina nomination, then bring in one of the bargain bin guys to tandem with Francouz and spend those other assets to make the team around them even better.

Nothing about what Sakic did makes sense. Like I get it, he needed a starter and got caught not only in a bidding war, but a bidding war for one of like two starting goalies readily available (the other being Gibson). But the sequence of events and decisions is baffling.

Would you really want any of those goalies to be the starter come playoff time? I feel a lot more comfortable with Kuemper.

 

[dahrougem2]

It’s entirely possible that the Gru negotiation went like the Kuemper one.
They might have come close to agreeing and then Seattle came in with a higher offer, longer term, NMC, and they told Joe to match it. He said no, and it was already too late at that point. Other goalies had signed.

It’s unlike Joe to be backed into a corner. I suspect Gru may have turned the negotiation on them.

Perhaps, but if from the beginning you didn't think Gru was worth it then move on. If he and his agency say "5x5 is not enough" you tell them "thanks, we're going in another direction" and you get one of those UFA goalies for nothing but cap space before they sign elsewhere.

Would you really want any of those goalies to be the starter come playoff time? I feel a lot more comfortable with Kuemper.

I'm not saying I'd want them, what I'm saying is Sakic's comments come off as a "we did as much to help him as he helped us" in the sense that Grubauer wasn't really worthy of that Vezina nom, and any goaltender playing here could get that nom behind our defensive corps and structure. And if that is really the mentality, don't go and spend a ludicrous amount on a goalie one year away from UFA.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Perhaps, but if from the beginning you didn't think Gru was worth it then move on. If he and his agency say "5x5 is not enough" you tell them "thanks, we're going in another direction" and you get one of those UFA goalies for nothing but cap space before they sign elsewhere.


I'm not saying I'd want them, what I'm saying is Sakic's comments come off as a "we did as much to help him as he helped us" in the sense that Grubauer wasn't really worthy of that Vezina nom, and any goaltender playing here could get that nom behind our defensive corps and structure. And if that is really the mentality, don't go and spend a ludicrous amount on a goalie one year away from UFA.

I know, it’s obvious Joe misplayed this one, and it’s also abundantly clear that all the « love » that Grubauer spoke about for Colorado wasn’t as sincere as expected.

We heard that they hammering away at Grubauer’s contract from a few sources. It’s clear they were negotiating and trying to bridge the gap.

I can only assume Joe thought they were closer than they were to agreeing. Otherwise it makes no sense for him to wait. The logical idea is that they were convinced they were going to agree and Grubauer’s camp turned it near the end because they got a better offer.

 

[McJedi]

I have faith of this too, just not so much at center.

I guess we just disagree on the quality of play he showed last year. I don't recall him catching many off guard with his speed nor many passing plays that made me think he will be a premier puck distributor. Overall though, I don't doubt he has the offensive instincts to be a top six player. I just haven't seen enough to warrant him being a surefire top six center. He can get lost on his coverage in the defensive end and his puck support hasn't been enough for me to comfortably slot him in to a 2c roll moving forward. He's got some great skills, I'm curious to see where they translate best.

Then Go watch the second goal of game 5 vs Vegas. Or watch JTCs game winning goal vs Vegas in the regular season. If you didn’t see his explosive speed defensively, you need to pay closer attention. Kid has great burst. A very fluid skater.

Avs were noticeably worse and slower in games 3&4 when Bednar screwed up royally and played the washed up Sods. Who was out of position on the game tying goal in game 3 and otherwise totally dominated in those two games. His goal aside, Sods line was absolutely dominated by Vegas.

we missed Newhooks speed, compete and recovery in the bottom six. Bednar got his ass handed to him by Debour.

 

[McJedi]

I don’t get this UFA desire to sign one of the goalies. Which one? Which deal was so good? I can’t finger one. Maybe Freddie Anderson $4.5 x 2 but that’s just meh. The rest are low end starters or the 5 x $5mm Boston gave out. That one? I don’t know. Seems rich for an unproven guy. Not one UFA deal would have felt “good”. Grubs got too much money and AAV. His deal is one of the worst goalie contracts signed day one. I’m not sure how Joe screwed up. Grubs didn’t want to take any discount. He wanted market in Denver.

Avs don’t have the cap space. Did you guys not believe Sakic when he said last years team would be the deepest one. He meant that. You should have listened.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I don’t get this UFA desire to sign one of the goalies. Which one? Which deal was so good? I can’t finger one. Maybe Freddie Anderson $4.5 x 2 but that’s just meh. The rest are low end starters or the 5 x $5mm Boston gave out. That one? I don’t know. Seems rich for an unproven guy. Not one UFA deal would have felt “good”. Grubs got too much money and AAV. His deal is one of the worst goalie contracts signed day one. I’m not sure how Joe screwed up. Grubs didn’t want to take any discount. He wanted market in Denver.

Avs don’t have the cap space. Did you guys not believe Sakic when he said last years team would be the deepest one. He meant that. You should have listened.

Then Sakic messed up by not going all in last trade deadline. Although some of the prices Leafs etc paid were horrendous.

I feel like we missed out with our chance. Same as with Dallas the year before. Shitshow that was.

We have totally screwed our last two playoffs imo. First year bad luck with injuries of course.

 

[McJedi]

Then Sakic messed up by not going all in last trade deadline. Although some of the prices Leafs etc paid were horrendous.

I feel like we missed out with our chance. Same as with Dallas the year before. Shitshow that was.

We have totally screwed our last two playoffs imo. First year bad luck with injuries of course.

Are you kidding? Of freaking course Sakic screwed up this deadline. Badly. That isn’t even debatable. He added Nemeth, who by himself made the Avs substantially worse with his pathetic playoff performances. Sods was obviously washed up and worthless and Dubs was worse than JJ. Total deadline failure. It also exposed Badnar as an overly rigid and conservative coach. Avs completely screwed up an amazing team. Sakic takes that L for sure.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Are you kidding? Of freaking course Sakic screwed up this deadline. Badly. That isn’t even debatable. He added Nemeth, who by himself made the Avs substantially worse with his pathetic playoff performances. Sods was obviously washed up and worthless and Dubs was worse than JJ. Total deadline failure. It also exposed Badnar as an overly rigid and conservative coach. Avs completely screwed up an amazing team. Sakic takes that L for sure.

Initial feeling for the deadline was meh(at least for me). We added much needed depth but turned out Soda was done and Nemeth sucked. Soo not so good In The end.

 

[Avsfan1921]

Then Go watch the second goal of game 5 vs Vegas. Or watch JTCs game winning goal vs Vegas in the regular season. If you didn’t see his explosive speed defensively, you need to pay closer attention. Kid has great burst. A very fluid skater.

Avs were noticeably worse and slower in games 3&4 when Bednar screwed up royally and played the washed up Sods. Who was out of position on the game tying goal in game 3 and otherwise totally dominated in those two games. His goal aside, Sods line was absolutely dominated by Vegas.

we missed Newhooks speed, compete and recovery in the bottom six. Bednar got his ass handed to him by Debour.

As I said, there weren’t many times that I recall. Every NHL player has good moments. This was never consistent during his first cup of coffee. He has to put together some consistency for me to begin to have faith in him as a 2c.

EDIT
I also disagree with how Bednar handled the bench and I’m a huge supporter of his. But continually playing Nemeth was by far his biggest blunder

 

[drhiii]

Are you kidding? Of freaking course Sakic screwed up this deadline. Badly. That isn’t even debatable. He added Nemeth, who by himself made the Avs substantially worse with his pathetic playoff performances. Sods was obviously washed up and worthless and Dubs was worse than JJ. Total deadline failure. It also exposed Badnar as an overly rigid and conservative coach. Avs completely screwed up an amazing team. Sakic takes that L for sure.

Yep. Rigid and conservative.

Avs I suspect will be not just worse off, but substantially worse into the season. Just going on record.. it will play out all by itself.

 

[Shinjuku Calling]

Are you kidding? Of freaking course Sakic screwed up this deadline. Badly. That isn’t even debatable. He added Nemeth, who by himself made the Avs substantially worse with his pathetic playoff performances. Sods was obviously washed up and worthless and Dubs was worse than JJ. Total deadline failure. It also exposed Badnar as an overly rigid and conservative coach. Avs completely screwed up an amazing team. Sakic takes that L for sure.

Really was one of the worst deadlines I can remember in recent memory for any team.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Was this an overpay, yes.

Is the offseason a disappointment early. Yeah. But Lando ultimately got signed to a decent if underwhelming deal when I think there was legit a chance he could have walked -- and I do think a team out there might have given him 7x9 or more in this crazy off season. So what he got while not great, works. Makar on a similar line - came in at a decent if unspectacular hit. Both could have been far worse.

There is still a long ways to go. There are going to be teams looking to cut salary and/or cap space over the next month. There is still a little bit of depth on the market that can solidify the system/bench. If the Avs can play it right, they likely can pick up some bottom line talent via trade on discount - possibly even a top 2 line winger still either on good (retained) cap hits OR that work better for term in the Avs structure (the 1-2 year window that the Mac contract coming up provides).

Point is lets see what happens over the next month before we judge the whole story. And while it is easy to look around and go man, all these teams improved. If you go back over the last 15-20 years, look at the teams who jumped feet first into UFA. It rarely works. And double rarely works past a year or two of the deals.

Also worth noting, if the Avs do have some cap space free -- at the trade deadline there are going to be sellers....and almost all the buyers are going to be capped out. If the Avs go into the deadline with 4-5 million in cap space -- the legitimately could add 2-3 big pieces without huge trade value price tags due to a lack of buyers.

 

[Vaslof]

I'm very excited to see Kuemper play. Can't wait for the season to start. I have a good feeling about him and I think an elite goalie will push us through past the second round.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

6’5

 

[Belgican]

Umm, can you please explain that. Compher's PK metrics are the worst on the Avs team, and by a very big margin too.

Do you have those metrics or where I can find them ? Thanks

 

[Belgican]

Was this an overpay, yes.

Is the offseason a disappointment early. Yeah. But Lando ultimately got signed to a decent if underwhelming deal when I think there was legit a chance he could have walked -- and I do think a team out there might have given him 7x9 or more in this crazy off season. So what he got while not great, works. Makar on a similar line - came in at a decent if unspectacular hit. Both could have been far worse.

There is still a long ways to go. There are going to be teams looking to cut salary and/or cap space over the next month. There is still a little bit of depth on the market that can solidify the system/bench. If the Avs can play it right, they likely can pick up some bottom line talent via trade on discount - possibly even a top 2 line winger still either on good (retained) cap hits OR that work better for term in the Avs structure (the 1-2 year window that the Mac contract coming up provides).

Point is lets see what happens over the next month before we judge the whole story. And while it is easy to look around and go man, all these teams improved. If you go back over the last 15-20 years, look at the teams who jumped feet first into UFA. It rarely works. And double rarely works past a year or two of the deals.

Also worth noting, if the Avs do have some cap space free -- at the trade deadline there are going to be sellers....and almost all the buyers are going to be capped out. If the Avs go into the deadline with 4-5 million in cap space -- the legitimately could add 2-3 big pieces without huge trade value price tags due to a lack of buyers.

I agree, but usually the best moment for Sakic is during the off-season, but you are right, there will be opportunities. Hoping Sakic will do his magic again.

As for now, he looks to have lost control, and has a big cliff to climb. He looks to have cap but no assets to trade for someone, that’s a problem.

 

[nammerus]

Was this an overpay, yes.

Is the offseason a disappointment early. Yeah. But Lando ultimately got signed to a decent if underwhelming deal when I think there was legit a chance he could have walked -- and I do think a team out there might have given him 7x9 or more in this crazy off season. So what he got while not great, works. Makar on a similar line - came in at a decent if unspectacular hit. Both could have been far worse.

There is still a long ways to go. There are going to be teams looking to cut salary and/or cap space over the next month. There is still a little bit of depth on the market that can solidify the system/bench. If the Avs can play it right, they likely can pick up some bottom line talent via trade on discount - possibly even a top 2 line winger still either on good (retained) cap hits OR that work better for term in the Avs structure (the 1-2 year window that the Mac contract coming up provides).

Point is lets see what happens over the next month before we judge the whole story. And while it is easy to look around and go man, all these teams improved. If you go back over the last 15-20 years, look at the teams who jumped feet first into UFA. It rarely works. And double rarely works past a year or two of the deals.

Also worth noting, if the Avs do have some cap space free -- at the trade deadline there are going to be sellers....and almost all the buyers are going to be capped out. If the Avs go into the deadline with 4-5 million in cap space -- the legitimately could add 2-3 big pieces without huge trade value price tags due to a lack of buyers.

This is some delusional thinking.

There’s no one worth anything in the free agent market. Sakic has no assets to trade for anyone of value (with Newhook/Byram). He has no avenue to improve the team going forward.

And when has cap constraints ever stopped a team from making trades at the deadline? It’s incredibly easy to move people around or LTIR a random roster player like we saw this past year. That’s even more delusional to think teams will bend over backwards at the TDL and accept our garbage cause we have some cap space.

And the best part is you lambast the teams that going full bore ahead with UFA, but forget that due to Sakic’s incompetence, that’s likely the only way we’ll be able to fill out our roster in 2023 given how garbage our prospect pool is.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

This is some delusional thinking.

There’s no one worth anything in the free agent market. Sakic has no assets to trade for anyone of value (with Newhook/Byram). He has no avenue to improve the team going forward.

And when has cap constraints ever stopped a team from making trades at the deadline? It’s incredibly easy to move people around or LTIR a random roster player like we saw this past year. That’s even more delusional to think teams will bend over backwards at the TDL and accept our garbage cause we have some cap space.

And the best part is you lambast the teams that going full bore ahead with UFA, but forget that due to Sakic’s incompetence, that’s likely the only way we’ll be able to fill out our roster in 2023 given how garbage our prospect pool is.

You are telling me there is not a single player left in UFA market that would not improve the 3rd/4h line?

Let’s say he signed Parise one of Palmieri as a depth winger. That does not improve the team. (yes I know both are rumored to be signing with NYI but has not happened yet)

Or maybe add Zajac at center or another similar vet.

Point being there are still players out there to add experience and depth to the bottom two lines.

Add a depth 6/7 vet D man or two in that as well and that is what I am looking at for now.

There are guys left to fill the 4th line center, tweener 3rd/4th line winger, 5/6/7 D role.


Regarding trades, the Avs do have a few mid tier prospects available along with draft picks if the right deal comes along.


Is it going to be a world beater of a deal, no. But the Avs already have those players. What you are looking for now is to round out the bottom half of the roster.

If the season goes as expected, you can look for that deadline deal to bring in the top 6 forward or that top 4 D man.


Or as a said, maybe you find that guy now on a team dumping cap/cash. Talking a guy like Nuke, Bura, Toews. There are going to be those types of guys on the market still this off-season as teams adjust their rosters.

 

[Richard88]

Do you have those metrics or where I can find them ? Thanks

HockeyViz.com

I'm not subscribed so I don't have access to this years metrics but here are last years metrics.

As you can see Compher allowed 26% more scoring chances on the PK compared to league average. The Avs without Compher on the PK allowed 9% less than league average. So Compher allowed 35% more scoring chances on the PK compared to his teammates. In other words he is extremely ineffective as a PKer.

For comparison here are Nichuskin's metrics which at -25% on the PK is just outstanding, and is a night and day difference compared to Compher.

Typically numbers better than -10% are great, -15% is elite. Nichuskin at below -20% at both 5v5 and on the PK is in a league of his own.

 

[Islay1989]

This is some delusional thinking.

There’s no one worth anything in the free agent market. Sakic has no assets to trade for anyone of value (with Newhook/Byram). He has no avenue to improve the team going forward.

And when has cap constraints ever stopped a team from making trades at the deadline? It’s incredibly easy to move people around or LTIR a random roster player like we saw this past year. That’s even more delusional to think teams will bend over backwards at the TDL and accept our garbage cause we have some cap space.

And the best part is you lambast the teams that going full bore ahead with UFA, but forget that due to Sakic’s incompetence, that’s likely the only way we’ll be able to fill out our roster in 2023 given how garbage our prospect pool is.

Sakic has no assets?

 

[Balthazar]

So when Compher is on the PK the other team is 35% more likely to score a goal than when he's not there? Interesting.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

So when Compher is on the PK the other team is 35% more likely to score a goal than when he's not there? Interesting.

Think that’s a few years old. Compher was better last year but still pretty much average. Among full time PK’ers Compher is the closest player beyond the negative side of the neutral threshold for XGA% which made him the 4th best forward and 4th worst forward among all who played at least 30PK minutes.

LOC was far and away Colorado’s most effective PK forward last year from an XGF perspective while Makar was far and away the best PK defenseman.

 

[Richard88]

Think that’s a few years old. Compher was better last year but still pretty much average. Among full time PK’ers Compher is the closest player beyond the negative side of the neutral threshold for XGA% which made him the 4th best forward and 4th worst forward among all who played at least 30PK minutes.

LOC was far and away Colorado’s most effective PK forward last year from an XGF perspective while Makar was far and away the best PK defenseman.

Yes, the charts are from the 2019/20 season, as mentioned in my post. If someone has a subscription to HockeyViz feel free to share the 2020/21 charts for comparison.

I do think Compher improved on the PK this year but there was still a stark contrast between when LOC/Jost/Nichuskin were on the ice compared to Compher and especially Donskoi.

Donskoi doesn't have the defensive awareness to cycle in the right way on the PK so he ended up always just standing still and getting flatfooted which opened up a tonne of lanes for opponents. Compher was a bit better than Donskoi and was much more mobile, but he tends to get to the right areas without ever actually pressuring the puck carrier at all. Jost/Nichuskin/LOC are far better at pressuring the puck, and I anticipate that Helm will be a good fit as well.

 

[Belgican]

HockeyViz.com

I'm not subscribed so I don't have access to this years metrics but here are last years metrics.

As you can see Compher allowed 26% more scoring chances on the PK compared to league average. The Avs without Compher on the PK allowed 9% less than league average. So Compher allowed 35% more scoring chances on the PK compared to his teammates. In other words he is extremely ineffective as a PKer.


View attachment 458271



For comparison here are Nichuskin's metrics which at -25% on the PK is just outstanding, and is a night and day difference compared to Compher.

Typically numbers better than -10% are great, -15% is elite. Nichuskin at below -20% at both 5v5 and on the PK is in a league of his own.



View attachment 458273

Thanks !