Cody Ceci

[danny90]

Gards far better player than Ceci ... Ceci better get mean and nasty really fast if he wants to stay in league. But I suspect this may be his last year unless he goes for $700K Marty type role.

This is absurd he will signing a multiyear deal next year in the 4-7 million range depending on term

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I am not for keeping Ceci based on his CAP hit but blaming him on goal where our goalie passes puck to Panthers winger right in front of our net who shoots it right back in our net is far from fair. It is a bang bang play and it did not give any defender time to react.

But why did Ceci decide to make a no look, weak backhand reverse pass in his own zone? All he had to do was pass it up the ice. Two of the Panthers forwards were going for a change, leaving Pysyk as the lone forechecker. The Leafs had already made their change and the forwards gave Ceci plenty of easy options.

The Panthers had nothing going until that brutal turnover.

 

[Zybalto]

For a guy that supposedly makes nonstop bonehead plays that lead to goals, he sure does have solid defensive numbers:

5v5 out of the 82 NHL dmen with 800+ minutes:

Giveaways/60: 1.25 - 6th fewest in the NHL (by far the fewest giveaways on the Leafs D)
Goals against/60 REL: -.75 5th best in the NHL
High Danger chances against/60 REL: -.95 17th fewest allowed in the NHL


Out of the 23 PK pairings with at least 80 minutes this year:

Muzzin/Ceci:
Goals against/60: 4.16 By far the best in the league. Muzzin/Ceci on the PK has almost a better goals against/60 than Detroit has this year. -6.16 when you go REL which is amazing.


Relative his D teammates (min 100 minutes):

Giveaways/60:

Ceci: 1.25
Rielly: 2.23
Barrie: 2.67
Holl: 2.88
Sandin: 2.9
Muzzin: 3.06
Dermott: 3.07
Marincin: 3.7

Goals against/60:

Sandin: 2.17
Ceci: 2.27
Holl: 2.68
Dermott: 2.76
Rielly: 2.78
Barrie: 2.85
Muzzin: 3.19
Marincin: 3.26


Marincin hate I can understand as he's got the ugly defensive numbers to back it up. Ceci hate is just weird to me. I could also understand if it was concerning his brutal offensive game but going after him on his solid D play this year is just plain odd.

 

[Suntouchable13]

This is absurd he will signing a multiyear deal next year in the 4-7 million range depending on term

Are you serious? 4-7 Mil for Ceci? You mean Rupees, right? He ain't getting anywhere near that many dollars. If he will, then his agent is a genius and/or some GM is extremely stupid or desperate.

 

[ToneDog]

Are you serious? 4-7 Mil for Ceci? You mean Rupees, right? He ain't getting anywhere near that many dollars. If he will, then his agent is a genius and/or some GM is extremely stupid or desperate.

He will dominate the IHL playing for the Bruins of Bangalore.

 

[Stephen]

But why did Ceci decide to make a no look, weak backhand reverse pass in his own zone? All he had to do was pass it up the ice. Two of the Panthers forwards were going for a change, leaving Pysyk as the lone forechecker. The Leafs had already made their change and the forwards gave Ceci plenty of easy options.

The Panthers had nothing going until that brutal turnover.

The reversal pass is overused by the Leafs. Kicking it back to maintain possession is a great idea when you have numbers back there to support the puck for another attempt to transition it out like a pin ball bumper. The 2000s Red Wings did this a ton with Lidstrom and Rafalski back there. (Coached by Babcock too).

Problem is when it's overused and in panic situations like you already have man on a forecheck with speed. It's only going to cause chaos. Saw Tavares reverse it along the boards instead of getting it out in the first period. I said to myself, we are in for a long cycle and we were.

 

[biotk]

For a guy that supposedly makes nonstop bonehead plays that lead to goals, he sure does have solid defensive numbers:

5v5 out of the 82 NHL dmen with 800+ minutes:

Giveaways/60: 1.25 - 6th fewest in the NHL (by far the fewest giveaways on the Leafs D)
Goals against/60 REL: -.75 5th best in the NHL
High Danger chances against/60 REL: -.95 17th fewest allowed in the NHL


Out of the 23 PK pairings with at least 80 minutes this year:

Muzzin/Ceci:
Goals against/60: 4.16 By far the best in the league. Muzzin/Ceci on the PK has almost a better goals against/60 than Detroit has this year. -6.16 when you go REL which is amazing.


Relative his D teammates (min 100 minutes):

Giveaways/60:

Ceci: 1.25
Rielly: 2.23
Barrie: 2.67
Holl: 2.88
Sandin: 2.9
Muzzin: 3.06
Dermott: 3.07
Marincin: 3.7

Goals against/60:

Sandin: 2.17
Ceci: 2.27
Holl: 2.68
Dermott: 2.76
Rielly: 2.78
Barrie: 2.85
Muzzin: 3.19
Marincin: 3.26


Marincin hate I can understand as he's got the ugly defensive numbers to back it up. Ceci hate is just weird to me. I could also understand if it was concerning his brutal offensive game but going after him on his solid D play this year is just plain odd.

Everyone decided that they despised Ceci from the second he was traded to Toronto. They had to wait until the 53rd game of the season before he cost the team a game. He is not a great D. He is paid too much. He is better than other options.

 

[Superstar]

He will dominate the IHL playing for the Bruins of Bangalore.

The Legend that will be number 4, Cody Orr...

 

[Menzinger]

Ceci is bad, but hes really no worse than the average bottom pairing D man.

Folks around here tend to have incredibly out of wack expectations for what those guys are capable of. Dont expect them to act like top fournguys.

That said ideally hes traded as soon as tomorrow.

 

[Northernguy10]

All part of his role really.

Ceci has been solid this year but that doesnt really cut it in this city. Does his job great most nights and doesnt get any praise at all and has the odd bad game and hes been bad forever. Making the exception the rule with Ceci has been an obsession around Toronto though.

Same people seem to be crying out for a guy like Manson which makes it even stranger when you can barely tell their numbers apart.

Ceci defensive REL numbers are really good and hes on arguably the best PK pairing in the league.

I understand the cap hit and all but when guys like Barrie, Dermott and even Rielly have underperformed so poorly and yet Ceci takes the heat, I really think its more of a style issue in this town and Ceci isnt gonna score his way into any hearts either.

Not really a surprise stay at home D avoid signing here.

People had their minds made up about Ceci before he got here and he would have had to basically be top pairing quality to change their minds...He's played surprisingly well and would be welcome back , at least to me , as a 3rd pairing defence man at the right AAV.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

But why did Ceci decide to make a no look, weak backhand reverse pass in his own zone? All he had to do was pass it up the ice. Two of the Panthers forwards were going for a change, leaving Pysyk as the lone forechecker. The Leafs had already made their change and the forwards gave Ceci plenty of easy options.

The Panthers had nothing going until that brutal turnover.

That is correct but have you seen our breakouts everyone is trying to be the Russian Red army taking puck out of our end. I can't even count the number of times I see weak back passes in our end and it is by everyone. Now I am not saying it is bad or good. But clearly it is how we now breakout. To me i was not trained in this type of breakout but game has changed. But back to my point which was all Hutch had to do was drop down to his knees and cover puck for a faceoff. But he can't athletically do that in tight so he tried to make a big pass up the ice. He flubbed it. and it was a bang bang goal. Anywho both of those guys screwed up for sure. But Hutch really did that one to himself.

 

[Beanzy]

Gards far better player than Ceci ... Ceci better get mean and nasty really fast if he wants to stay in league. But I suspect this may be his last year unless he goes for $700K Marty type role.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but in 53 games played this year Ceci is a +8 with 8 points. Gardiner is a -20 with 15 points. Tough to argue that Gardiner is the far better player with numbers like that.

 

[Rogie]

For a guy that supposedly makes nonstop bonehead plays that lead to goals, he sure does have solid defensive numbers:

5v5 out of the 82 NHL dmen with 800+ minutes:

Giveaways/60: 1.25 - 6th fewest in the NHL (by far the fewest giveaways on the Leafs D)
Goals against/60 REL: -.75 5th best in the NHL
High Danger chances against/60 REL: -.95 17th fewest allowed in the NHL


Out of the 23 PK pairings with at least 80 minutes this year:

Muzzin/Ceci:
Goals against/60: 4.16 By far the best in the league. Muzzin/Ceci on the PK has almost a better goals against/60 than Detroit has this year. -6.16 when you go REL which is amazing.


Relative his D teammates (min 100 minutes):

Giveaways/60:

Ceci: 1.25
Rielly: 2.23
Barrie: 2.67
Holl: 2.88
Sandin: 2.9
Muzzin: 3.06
Dermott: 3.07
Marincin: 3.7

Goals against/60:

Sandin: 2.17
Ceci: 2.27
Holl: 2.68
Dermott: 2.76
Rielly: 2.78
Barrie: 2.85
Muzzin: 3.19
Marincin: 3.26


Marincin hate I can understand as he's got the ugly defensive numbers to back it up. Ceci hate is just weird to me. I could also understand if it was concerning his brutal offensive game but going after him on his solid D play this year is just plain odd.

Lots of good stuff here. I don't know about give-aways as a measure of Defensive ability, but, fewer must be better.

As for his High Danger corsi stats, I'm a little puzzled why those are good, but, I'll also leave that for now.

I do take issue, or rather, I wonder if GA/60 relative number that he has, which as you said, is 5th best in the league (or whatever), I wonder if that is really meaning.

There's GF/60 and GA/60 and the ration GF%.

Ceci's GF% is worst on the team.

The problem is, I think, it's not an either or, we shouldn't just look at GA/60 to see if they are good Defensively, we look at who SCORES more, which takes us back to GF% stat, the ratio of GF/60 to GA/60.

So, it's good he has a good GA/60, but, when his GF/60 is actually less than his GA/60, and it makes his GF% below 50%, that is NEGATIVE.

Another way to say it (a negative GF%) is
we are more likely to be scored on than we are to score, when he's on the ice.

So, I"m not saying I don't think that the GA/60 isn't a useful measure, but, I don't think it says enough just by itself.

Edit: I just want to make clearer my point with an example. And, these numbers are ONLY hypothetical, but, just to show what I'm trying to say.

Ceci (when on the ice) the team allows 1 goal/game BUT score less than 1 goal/game;
Sandin (when on ice) the team allows 2 goals/game and score 3 goals/game.
So, who's better defensively?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but in 53 games played this year Ceci is a +8 with 8 points. Gardiner is a -20 with 15 points. Tough to argue that Gardiner is the far better player with numbers like that.

I was not talking effectiveness on ice i was talking pure skill. I think you know I would never have Gards on my team EVER. He is either a complete brain dead defensive player or he is a little chicken. or maybe some combo of 2. Either way a bad mix. I always thought he should have been moved back to centre like when his dad coached him.

 

[Zybalto]

Lots of good stuff here. I don't know about give-aways as a measure of Defensive ability, but, fewer must be better.

As for his High Danger corsi stats, I'm a little puzzled why those are good, but, I'll also leave that for now.

I do take issue, or rather, I wonder if GA/60 relative number that he has, which as you said, is 5th best in the league (or whatever), I wonder if that is really meaning.

There's GF/60 and GA/60 and the ration GF%.

Ceci's GF% is worst on the team.

The problem is, I think, it's not an either or, we shouldn't just look at GA/60 to see if they are good Defensively, we look at who SCORES more, which takes us back to GF% stat, the ratio of GF/60 to GA/60.

So, it's good he has a good GA/60, but, when his GF/60 is actually less than his GA/60, and it makes his GF% below 50%, that is NEGATIVE.

Another way to say it (a negative GF%) is
we are more likely to be scored on than we are to score, when he's on the ice.

So, I"m not saying I don't think that the GA/60 isn't a useful measure, but, I don't think it says enough just by itself.

If he's being used in defensive situations and getting the fewest Ozone starts, its bound to have an effect on his GF% numbers for sure. I just notice him being used in that role and yet giving up the fewest goals while having really low expected goals and high danger chance against numbers as well. Thats his role and what we want from him and he's still around 50% with his GF% which Im fine with. His price tag might have to go for a backup keeper but whats going to happen when we lose the guy with the best defensive numbers on the team and one half of the best PK pairing in the league? Seems most folks are too eager to find out.....

 

[Commander Clueless]

I mean, I've been hard on him, but he's really just an overpaid Martin Marincin. A $4.5M #7/8 guy.

Either go get a decent bottom pair (at minimum) replacement, or give Liljegren a shot. It's past time Kyle.

 

[Rogie]

If he's being used in defensive situations and getting the fewest Ozone starts, its bound to have an effect on his GF% numbers for sure. I just notice him being used in that role and yet giving up the fewest goals while having really low expected goals and high danger chance against numbers as well. Thats his role and what we want from him and he's still around 50% with his GF% which Im fine with. His price tag might have to go for a backup keeper but whats going to happen when we lose the guy with the best defensive numbers on the team and one half of the best PK pairing in the league? Seems most folks are too eager to find out.....

Thank you much for not taking my post as some kind of attack on your numbers; appreciated very much.

I do find the High Danger numbers out of whack for some reason. I say this because, his CF%, FF%, and SCF% are all pretty much the worst on the team, at least in my reading from Natural Statstrick (5v5 score and venue adjusted numbers).

And, yes, his slightly below 50% for GF% is also respectable, especially, as you say, if he gets tough zone starts.

I still ain't buying though that his GA/60 is a meaningful measurement: I still think, compared to other Dmen, we are more likely to be OUTSCORED when he's on the ice.

You mention, when in DEFENSIVE SITUATIONS, and I think this is where we sort of digress in our thinking, because, I don't think there necessarily are even DEFENSIVE SITUATIONS, well yes, there are, but, that would just be maybe the last minute of a game, where LITERALLY, you care NOTHING about scoring, and ONLY about keeping the puck out of your net, pretty much the rest of the time, it's about OUTSCORING your opponent, not being defensive, but, just throwing that out there.

 

[Zybalto]

Thank you much for not taking my post as some kind of attack on your numbers; appreciated very much.

I do find the High Danger numbers out of whack for some reason. I say this because, his CF%, FF%, and SCF% are all pretty much the worst on the team, at least in my reading from Natural Statstrick (5v5 score and venue adjusted numbers).

And, yes, his slightly below 50% for GF% is also respectable, especially, as you say, if he gets tough zone starts.

I still ain't buying though that his GA/60 is a meaningful measurement: I still think, compared to other Dmen, we are more likely to be OUTSCORED when he's on the ice.

You mention, when in DEFENSIVE SITUATIONS, and I think this is where we sort of digress in our thinking, because, I don't think there necessarily are even DEFENSIVE SITUATIONS, well yes, there are, but, that would just be maybe the last minute of a game, where LITERALLY, you care NOTHING about scoring, and ONLY about keeping the puck out of your net, pretty much the rest of the time, it's about OUTSCORING your opponent, not being defensive, but, just throwing that out there.

I think maybe comparing him to other teams more defensively used players would be useful but I dont really have the time to put that together. There are also quality of competition/teammates variables to consider in all of this.

I just think hes not nearly as bad as some make him out to be but has certainly slipped from his really amazing start where he had some really impressive underlying stats. Might have something to do with him fitting in better under Babs than Keefe and how he has been utilized in the different systems over time as Zeke suggested.

Anyways, I hope he goes on another solid run of games starting tonight

 

[Polaris1010]

I think maybe comparing him to other teams more defensively used players would be useful but I dont really have the time to put that together. There are also quality of competition/teammates variables to consider in all of this.

I just think hes not nearly as bad as some make him out to be but has certainly slipped from his really amazing start where he had some really impressive underlying stats. Might have something to do with him fitting in better under Babs than Keefe and how he has been utilized in the different systems over time as Zeke suggested.

Anyways, I hope he goes on another solid run of games starting tonight

Yes he is.

Ceci was bad in Ottawa.

Ceci is bad in Toronto.

The only time he looked half way decent was the year that Ottawa went on that run in the playoffs.

Total team defense, no one dare try to score.

Then let Karlson do something.

Babcock tried to do the same thing here this year, and got fired.

 

[TML1967]

Two biggest issues:

1) He makes too many risky plays. He has the talent, but his hockey sense is seriously lacking. If he just made the simple, boring play more often I think people would like him. Defensively, he is decent at breaking up the cycle (not good, decent) but he wanders away from the net and seems incapable of actually getting a forwards stick tied up.

2) He is paid way too much for what he does. If he was under 2 million, people would be more apethetic. I think a ton of fans see him as being the reason we cant afford to improve the team cap wise. As simple as needing to find a replacement G who also makes 700k. If we had 2m to play with, its way easier to find and we would get a better deal as there is more variety.

If he played more like a Polak type (safe passes, glass and out, a bit tougher) people would have way less issues with him. Even if, after taking everything into account, Polak might be the worse overall D man. Glaring mistakes are what cause hatred way more than just not being good.