Didn’t know Reilly was injured. What happened and what part of his body is hurt! Should get Ceci signed to a 5x6 ASAP!
Cody Ceci
- Thread starter HamiltonNHL
- Start date
Ceci every day of the week.
SprDaVE
Moderator
- Sep 20, 2008
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Ceci has been solid. One thing he does a whole lot better than most give him credit for is his skating ability with the puck at times. It's a huge plus going from Hainsey to Ceci.
He's got his issues but he's been better than Zaitsev and Hainsey.
He's got his issues but he's been better than Zaitsev and Hainsey.
Trapper
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2013
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We will see after 20 games of Keefe who looks different in the system out of Muzzin,Barrie,Ceci.
I would still like to move one if possible (even packaged) for a long term D solution.
I’d hate to lose 3 for nothing. Especially since we’ve given up back to back 1st rounders.
SprDaVE
Moderator
- Sep 20, 2008
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That's a whole other discussion.
At the end of the day, he's an upgrade over Zaitsev and Hainsey to me. But I agree, he's not someone I hesitate moving for the right kind of deal.
1 offensive zone start all game, he was thrown to the wolves. Story of his career so far. But having a D man that can play those type of minutes and not get absolutely kicked in on a nightly basis has value, it means all your other D men get much easier minutes and look much better for it.
Three weeks ago, management came out and said he had been dealing with a nagging injury for the previous 10 days that had kept him out of most practices. Not sure if he's completely over it as he has been very inconsistent this year with his play. It sure didnt help the Leafs had one of the busiest schedules to start the year and he still went out there and played the biggest minutes.
As far as Im concerned now that Babcock's reign of terror is over every single player gets a fresh, past is in the past look. I dont think it's fair to judge any of them at this point considering the direction the team was headed. Not saying he's a super star of course, but average players can be made to look awful in the wrong situation.
Its because most folks, even in the media nowadays, know very little about analytics and tend to misuse them. There is no nuance usually either.
5v5 xGF% against the Avs, they were at the bottom of the list right? Why? Pretty much due to the lack of offence when they were on the ice.
Take Muzzin for example (who was pretty good that night as well) He had a 65.72% xGF% rating and Ceci only had a 23.97% rating and Rielly 20.17%. Makes you think the latter 2 got shelled right?...but look over at the expected goals against portion of xGF% and Ceci has a rating of .67 and Muzzin .70, despite Ceci getting 1st pairing matchups. Muzzin/Holl played over 5 minutes of hockey against the Mac line but were was used against them when the Leafs had oZone draws (Muzzin/Holl were around 80% Ozone faceoffs/shift starts). The Leafs top pairing played closer to 10 minutes against the Mac line, averaged around 15% oZone faceoffs/shift starts against them and ended up with roughly the same xGA numbers. I would have loved to have seen the transition offence from the pairing a little more that night but the Mac line is really damn good and everyone from the forwards down were making stupid mistakes, party due to fatigue (that Matthews pass, ewww). Rielly also made some noticeably uncharacteristic gaffes in transition.
At the end of the game, Ceci and Dermott were the only 2 dmen who wernt on the ice for a 5v5 goal against....and Dermott played the fewest minutes of any player on the team against Mac.
Quality of competition, Zone/Shift starts.....Usage is general. Its bigger than folks realize.
Griffin76
Registered User
I've been pleased with Ceci overall. Has he had a few defensive gaffes? Certainly. But so has everyone else. He's nowhere near as bad as he was pegged to be when we got him. He's definitely an upgrade on Zaitsev or Hainsey. He may not exactly be a number 2. But I do see him as a 3.
At worst I see our D as
Rielly 1 Ceci 3
Muzzin 3 Barrie 3
Dermott 5 Holl 6
With Muzzin, Barrie and Dermott all possibly being a step higher.
I don't think the personnel on the back end was the problem. I believe it was the system. Once the bad habits of the old system are gone I think we should have a decent D.
I was hoping for either Ceci or Barrie after last season ended. We got both. I was also hoping we would move on from Gardiner and Zaitsev. We did both. I'm confident we will be fine. Holl may be the only place to upgrade but really he's been pretty good.
At worst I see our D as
Rielly 1 Ceci 3
Muzzin 3 Barrie 3
Dermott 5 Holl 6
With Muzzin, Barrie and Dermott all possibly being a step higher.
I don't think the personnel on the back end was the problem. I believe it was the system. Once the bad habits of the old system are gone I think we should have a decent D.
I was hoping for either Ceci or Barrie after last season ended. We got both. I was also hoping we would move on from Gardiner and Zaitsev. We did both. I'm confident we will be fine. Holl may be the only place to upgrade but really he's been pretty good.
DavePoulin4PM
2x NHL all star, Selke winner, NHL exec
- Nov 6, 2017
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He doesn’t play scared and isn’t a coward. So no, he is absolutely nothing like Gardiner..
No, this is not why Ceci's xGF% was awful but appeared to play well. But thanks for the rest of your post that sheds some context. That's what I was looking for.
Teeder Keon
Defeat does not rest lightly on their shoulders
Here’s some analytically nuanced vibes
CeCi ctinks
no just kidding
But he’s not very good
And most importantly , the direction and blue print that Dubas and now Keefe want to Establish and are going for is smart , fast , quick thinking , possession , free styling hockey , players like Ceci and Muzz and goat and shore are not in anyway shape or form built for this way of thinking and playing .
They will be the sacrificial lambs and one goat
CeCi ctinks
no just kidding
But he’s not very good
And most importantly , the direction and blue print that Dubas and now Keefe want to Establish and are going for is smart , fast , quick thinking , possession , free styling hockey , players like Ceci and Muzz and goat and shore are not in anyway shape or form built for this way of thinking and playing .
They will be the sacrificial lambs and one goat
No worries, didnt mean to throw that in there but its more of a general frustration of mine.
Teeder Keon
Defeat does not rest lightly on their shoulders
Firstly the trade was made because we had to and wanted to get rid of Zaitsevs contract , no doubt about it and it was the best option to accomplish that , and obviously hoping that he would work out , and certainly and possibly it may have under Babcocks direction , and even then you could cc it wasn’t ( eye test eye test eye test ) .
So when the change in coaching now in place and with total commitment to the philosophy that Dubas and Keefe are going to employ Players like him are not in their plans ..
So sorry for the long winded opening .. here’s the deal
They will firstly bring up players with the Marlies for trials here and there as required or needed , if some of these players pan out , then plans to alter the line up will come shortly after that or at the end of the season , but make no mistake about it ..
Lily and Sandin will replace cc and Muzzin as they are players that fit the mold moving forward and also give them cap space in the short term and allow them not to sign those said players
They also have to acquire one other Dman don’t know if they will sign Barrie or not , depends on his play and what Reilly will demand ..
So hopefully that answers your question
All of this of course are my humble opinions
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I would just worry about who would play the hard minutes in all of this. Who plays top pairing PK? Who do we match against top lines?
I just got the feeling the team will be a hellluva fun team to watch and we'd have plenty of money to sign another dman but would be a sieve at the back.. Making a play for Pietrangelo (like they are talking about the the trade thread) is probably the smartest move to make with this setup I guess.
Teeder Keon
Defeat does not rest lightly on their shoulders
That would be amazing , but unlikely $$ wise
With Mo signing and hopefully Andersen and hopefully (Barrie ???????? )
There just won’t be any $$ left , this will be the new way teams are built
Your farm team will be your greatest asset moving forward
5-7 players making big money for 5 year contracts and taking up 80% of the total structure and the rest of the team sharing 20% and then rinsing and repeating mid and younger guys over and over and replacing the best young guys to fill in your top spots
Whether we like it or not , this is the new NHL
Basically the NBA
I hate it but this will be what it is
LeafsNation149
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2013
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Not talking about play styles, I'm talking about treatment from fans and the media. Thought that was pretty obvious, guess not.
Duffman955
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2010
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For all the hate he gets, I think he has been great.
He avoids any obvious defensive blunders and gets the puck up the ice quite effectively.
Once you factor in his QOC, hes been right on the money. Probably our best performing DMan this year.
He avoids any obvious defensive blunders and gets the puck up the ice quite effectively.
Once you factor in his QOC, hes been right on the money. Probably our best performing DMan this year.
Players who are supposedly scared and cowards don’t play over 500 games . Cowards are those that accuse others from behind a keyboard!
Had his first rough game in a bit so lets see where he is on the team now. (Dont want to make it seem like I'm trying to cherry pick here) Added a few more things in as well.
Ranking in the NHL out of the 41 dmen with over 450 5v5 minutes this year (via corsica):
TOI % Quality of competition: 29.63 (3rd highest of big minute dmen in the NHL)
Zone start ratio: 9th least sheltered.
Underlying stats:
CF%: 51.34%
SCF%: 52.27%
HDCF%: 52.78%
xGF%: 50.46%
GF%: 53.24%
Here are the Leafs top 4 D 5v5 goals allowed this year:
Ceci: 18 (2.14/60) - 3rd best REL in the NHL for big minute D.
Rielly: 23 (2.7/60)
Barrie: 27 (3.2/60)
Muzzin: 29 (3.55/60)
Goals allowed/60 with Ceci on the ice (usually against the best in the league): 2.14
Goals allowed/60 without Ceci (including sheltered bottom pairing): 3.14
5v5 Shots Blocked/60:
Ceci: 4.83
Dermott: 3.63
Muzzin: 3.18
Rielly: 2.86
Barrie: 2.84
Holl: 2.7
5v5 Giveaways/60:
Ceci: 1.77
Holl: 2.34
Rielly: 2.38
Barrie: 2.84
Muzzin: 3.18
Dermott: 3.94
5v5 penalties taken/60:
Ceci: 0.24
Dermott: 0.3
Barrie: 0.36
Muzzin: 0.37
Rielly: 1.07
Holl: 1.08
18 PK pairings have now played 50 minutes or more this year. These are the go to PKers that are out against the loaded top PPs that most teams deploy.
High Danger chances allowed/60:
Muzzin/Ceci: 16.01 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
High Danger chances allowed/60 REL:
Muzzin/Ceci: -5.25 (NHL Rank: 6th)
Expected Goals allowed/60 on the PK:
Muzzin/Ceci 5.94 (NHL Rank: 6th)
Expected Goals allowed/60 on the PK REL:
Muzzin/Ceci -1.05 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
Goals allowed/60 on the PK:
Muzzin/Ceci 4.00 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
Goals allowed/60 on the PK REL:
Muzzin/Ceci -7.00 (NHL Rank: 1st)
I dont think that looks too bad for an AHLer but I'm no expert......
Ranking in the NHL out of the 41 dmen with over 450 5v5 minutes this year (via corsica):
TOI % Quality of competition: 29.63 (3rd highest of big minute dmen in the NHL)
Zone start ratio: 9th least sheltered.
Underlying stats:
CF%: 51.34%
SCF%: 52.27%
HDCF%: 52.78%
xGF%: 50.46%
GF%: 53.24%
Here are the Leafs top 4 D 5v5 goals allowed this year:
Ceci: 18 (2.14/60) - 3rd best REL in the NHL for big minute D.
Rielly: 23 (2.7/60)
Barrie: 27 (3.2/60)
Muzzin: 29 (3.55/60)
Goals allowed/60 with Ceci on the ice (usually against the best in the league): 2.14
Goals allowed/60 without Ceci (including sheltered bottom pairing): 3.14
5v5 Shots Blocked/60:
Ceci: 4.83
Dermott: 3.63
Muzzin: 3.18
Rielly: 2.86
Barrie: 2.84
Holl: 2.7
5v5 Giveaways/60:
Ceci: 1.77
Holl: 2.34
Rielly: 2.38
Barrie: 2.84
Muzzin: 3.18
Dermott: 3.94
5v5 penalties taken/60:
Ceci: 0.24
Dermott: 0.3
Barrie: 0.36
Muzzin: 0.37
Rielly: 1.07
Holl: 1.08
18 PK pairings have now played 50 minutes or more this year. These are the go to PKers that are out against the loaded top PPs that most teams deploy.
High Danger chances allowed/60:
Muzzin/Ceci: 16.01 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
High Danger chances allowed/60 REL:
Muzzin/Ceci: -5.25 (NHL Rank: 6th)
Expected Goals allowed/60 on the PK:
Muzzin/Ceci 5.94 (NHL Rank: 6th)
Expected Goals allowed/60 on the PK REL:
Muzzin/Ceci -1.05 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
Goals allowed/60 on the PK:
Muzzin/Ceci 4.00 (NHL Rank: 3rd)
Goals allowed/60 on the PK REL:
Muzzin/Ceci -7.00 (NHL Rank: 1st)
I dont think that looks too bad for an AHLer but I'm no expert......
Martin Skoula
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2017
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It happens. Just another day in the life of a defensive D I guess. If they notice you, its trouble, heh.
