Confirmed with Link: Coburn Traded to Tampa Bay for Radko Gudas & 2 Picks (1st & 3rd)

Embiid

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Hartnell+ Kimmo+ Coburn trades = Good business/asset management

They are not necessarily good hockey trades for the here and now.....which right now equals mediocrity.

That is pretty much the crux of it IMO...

I'm ok with it...not enamored since the here and now is looking like no playoffs but that is thanks to one Paul Holmgren!
 

BackToTheBrierePatch

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I think if the Flyers really wanted Eberle the Oilers likely would of asked for Simmonds in return. A skill set the Oilers are missing on their team. So a deal would likely would have been expanded out into many players and picks. Doubt the Flyers would put Simmonds on the table anyway unless they get a similar player back.
 

DrHamburg

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There is a few ways to look at it.

Besides Yandle, Coburn got the biggest return of a Dman, it was a sellers Market and Coburn got a great return.

it is all up to the draft picks. How the 1st rounder turns out and if the 3rd rounder makes it, will go a long way determining how well the trade works out. I am sure Appleyard can give you some sort of % of if the 2 draft picks and Gudas are compared to Coburn this season.

With that being said, Zhitnik got the Flyers about 8 seasons of Coburn, who then got us Gudas, 1st, 3rd. That is fantastic asset management.

The picks and Gudas will determine if the Flyers made out, but you can't deny the tremendous value the Flyers got.
 

OriginJM

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cant wait
 

Appleyard

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Just off the games played numbers, in an average draft:

21st-25th overall pick has a ~30% chance of being better than Coburn.

81st-85th overall pick has a ~7-10% chance of being better than Coburn.

But in an average draft picks 6-10 have only a ~40% chance of being better than Coburn.
 

Rebels57

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Watching Gudas play Philly, I came away impressed each time. Not just with his vicious physicality, but he was doing everything you want a bottom pairing low-salary defensemen to do; making safe plays, battling hard along the boards, etc.

Gudas at $900K over Grossmann or Schenn at around $3.5 million and it's not even close.
 

Embiid

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Gudas at $900K over Grossmann or Schenn at around $3.5 million and it's not even close.

I think this is what Hextall is seeing......one or both those inanimate objects will be moved in the offseason. Gudas isn't going to be anything special IMO but he is a cheaper option considering our cap situation..
 

Appleyard

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But a more sophisticated look, just at the 1st rounder, of who was better than Coburn in the 21-25 range:

1990: Smolinksi.
1991: Whitney.
1992: N/A.
1993: Koivu, Bertuzzi.
1994: N/A.
1995: N/A.
1996: Briere.
1997: Morrow.
1998: Gagne.
1999: N/A.
2000: Boyes? Kind of similar.
2001: N/A.
2002: Steen, Ward.
2003: Kesler, Richards.
2004: Schneider.
2005: Rask, Oshie.
2006: Giroux, Varmalov.
2007: Pacioretty.
2008: Eberle?

Basically 1 guy in that 5 pick range a year is better than Coburn... so really it is more like 20% (although in the last ~15 years it has been more like 1.5 per 5 picks, so more like 30%)... but when you look at some of those names you can see just how good that pick could be.

And 3 of the great players taken in that range were by the Flyers.
 

FLYguy3911

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I think Gudas is a step up offensively from Schenn and Grossmann. From the few times I've seen him play he looked comfortable handling the puck, he's got decent hands, decent passer, and a heavy shot, a right handed shot. He had enough skill to get on TB's PP last year. I don't think you could say the same for Schenn or Grossmann.
 

BackToTheBrierePatch

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I think this is what Hextall is seeing......one or both those inanimate objects will be moved in the offseason. Gudas isn't going to be anything special IMO but he is a cheaper option considering our cap situation..

I have to agree with this. If Hextall sees Gudas as an equal to Grossmann and Schenn than it makes sense to have a player with a cap hit that is reasonable for a bottom pairing guy. Instead of having an overpaid bottom pair, you plug in a guy that a cap hit matches what the player is.
I agree Gudas isn't a great option but he is fine as a #5 or 6.
 
Last edited:

McNasty

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But a more sophisticated look, just at the 1st rounder, of who was better than Coburn in the 21-25 range:

1990: Smolinksi.
1991: Whitney.
1992: N/A.
1993: Koivu, Bertuzzi.
1994: N/A.
1995: N/A.
1996: Briere.
1997: Morrow.
1998: Gagne.
1999: N/A.
2000: Boyes? Kind of similar.
2001: N/A.
2002: Steen, Ward.
2003: Kesler, Richards.
2004: Schneider.
2005: Rask, Oshie.
2006: Giroux, Varmalov.
2007: Pacioretty.
2008: Eberle?

Basically 1 guy in that 5 pick range a year is better than Coburn... so really it is more like 20% (although in the last ~15 years it has been more like 1.5 per 5 picks, so more like 30%)... but when you look at some of those names you can see just how good that pick could be.

And 3 of the great players taken in that range were by the Flyers.

That's a really vanilla way of looking at it though. That 25th pick in 2008 could have just as easily been John Carlson, Tyler Ennis, or Slava Voynov who were taken within the next 10 picks. 2005 you could have been looking at James Neal, Matt Niskanen, or Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Hextall already said it, it's one thing to have picks but you need to make them count.

What they gained in the Coburn trade is the opportunity to continue to stockpile assets.
 

Appleyard

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That's a really vanilla way of looking at it though. That 25th pick in 2008 could have just as easily been John Carlson, Tyler Ennis, or Slava Voynov who were taken within the next 10 picks. 2005 you could have been looking at James Neal, Matt Niskanen, or Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Hextall already said it, it's one thing to have picks but you need to make them count.

What they gained in the Coburn trade is the opportunity to continue to stockpile assets.

Yeh, it is, it also assumes all teams are equal in ability to draft players. Which they are not.

But there is in general a trend that as each 5 pick bracket progressed through the draft the chance you get a good player falls. Though there are kind of 'ranges' not just limited to 5 picks.

1-5
6-15
16-25
26-30
31-50
51-75
76-90
91-100
101-120

are seemingly the tiers of ability that the draft clusters itself into, at least from 1990 onwards anyway. Ie the chance of you getting a great player in range 31-35 is almost the same as 46-50.

I like the trade... the situation means it made so much sense for the Flyers, and they got a good return.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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No, you're a contrarian because your immediate reaction often differs from the majority. Whether that's actually your opinion or whether you want to initiate a discussion... well...

Perhaps I am one of the few people on here who engages in critical thinking, not an immediate knee jerk overreaction to every move that is made, no matter how big or small.



What you've completely glossed over is the cost of the players involved. Coburn will be UFA after next year and will be in line for a suitable raise from his current salary and AAV. Gudas is on a cap friendly deal through next year and the picks won't factor into the cap for a couple of seasons. It was an asset management move both to clear a body on the ladder above the defensive prospects the Flyers have while clearing out salary. Maybe a prospect instead of Gudas would have been nice, but the value was more than fair for the Flyers.

I understand Coburn will be a UFA, but I think he would have been worth re-signing if he were still here, even at a higher cap-hit (obviously this depends on how much higher). And once again, I was fully in favor of trading for Coburn, your response here seems to be in response to if I said I was against trading him general. I am simply saying I think his return should have been higher. I understand completely why it was made, and agree with it for the most part. I don't have a problem with Gudas, I like him and am excited he is on the team for a number of reasons. I just think another prospect (in addition to Gudas) or another pick, or a better NHLer would have been fair value for Coburn. I'm not talking about their top prospect. I'm not talking about getting Drouin or another first, I'm just thinking a little more would have been fair and I would be all about this trade.


Again, you're ignoring how much a player like Eberle earns. Part of the reason for moving Coburn is to jettison some salary. Eberle makes more than Coburn and and I'd rather have Jake and Simmer over Eberle in all situations. You also don't trade into a position of strength; left wing is the Flyers' position of weakness and that's the only other place a 1-for-1 swap makes sense for Coburn. Coburn for Glencross (+ something else)? Would that have worked for you?... because he's probably the best LW that was moved at the deadline...

Again, Eberle was just something that was discussed previously. I understand the cap issues and positional issues, but again, getting a player like that (who is under a reasonable, albeit expensive, deal given what he can produce) is something you can work around. I don't know exactly what the solution would be, but I think it is worth it to work around (move Simmer down a line? Try someone out on an off wing?).

Pickings were slim and Hextall did a good job for this team moving forward.

To me you come off as reactionary on the small scale move because you always seem to look at the trade/signing on its own and ignore the big picture.

I'm not ignoring the big picture at all. Everyone is coming at me because I said "I'm not a fan" and I think they could have gotten more. I don't think that is some crazy reactionary statement. I understand and support the reasoning behind trading Coburn. Not at all against it. And again, I've been behind trading Coburn since the off-season (maybe even before). I just would have rather kept Coburn for this specific deal and would have liked to have the pot sweetened by one of the other aforementioned pieces. Would this all just go away if I Edited my post to say "meh" instead of what I actually said?

Trading Eberle for Coburn makes no sense for the Oilers. They're in a worse position than we are, and would just be trying to sell Coburn again next year. As we saw with the Petry trade, they're not very good at doing that either.

Great. I'm not saying that Eberle for Coburn was option two and he made the wrong choice. I was using that as a reference because it was a deal that was previously discussed around here. I have no idea if that deal was ever discussed between the two orgs.
 

BackToTheBrierePatch

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I think they did very well too. if they had zero intention of extending him next summer than it makes sense while to strike the iron while it is hot. picking up 2 draft picks in a very deep draft is a very good return. Gudas is what he is. But at least he makes more sense than spending 2 million plus more on a similar player for the bottom pair.
It is very debatable they could of got more for Coburn this summer or next February. Hextall did well.
 

CutOnDime97

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How can anyone dislike this trade. Had to be done since the cap situation is ****ed thanks to homer and Coburn's value isn't getting any higher.
 

DrHamburg

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Yeh, it is, it also assumes all teams are equal in ability to draft players. Which they are not.

But there is in general a trend that as each 5 pick bracket progressed through the draft the chance you get a good player falls. Though there are kind of 'ranges' not just limited to 5 picks.

1-5
6-15
16-25
26-30
31-50
51-75
76-90
91-100
101-120

are seemingly the tiers of ability that the draft clusters itself into, at least from 1990 onwards anyway. Ie the chance of you getting a great player in range 31-35 is almost the same as 46-50.

I like the trade... the situation means it made so much sense for the Flyers, and they got a good return.

I think it actually was pretty important to know this. Flyers are one of the better drafting teams in the first round as of late. You could say there is a 20% chance to get a guy better than Coburn and about a 30% chance you get a guy equal to Coburn plus Gudas and a small percentage boost in the 3rd round. All for a guy who gave the Flyers 8 years, and has fallen off to arguable being behind, Schultz, Streit, MDZ.
 

ILoveStephanieBrown

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Coburn fetched more than any other dman traded at the deadline not named Yandle. If you were hoping for more, you overvalued Coburn. Period.

As for the whole ''our draft picks could turn into players worse than Coburn'' concern, yes that could happen. That doesn't mean you should be afraid to move proven players for picks when your team is trash and in need of a rebuild.
 

AndHeMissedTheNet

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Coburn fetched more than any other dman traded at the deadline not named Yandle. If you were hoping for more, you overvalued Coburn. Period.

As for the whole ''our draft picks could turn into players worse than Coburn'' concern, yes that could happen. That doesn't mean you should be afraid to move proven players for picks when your team is trash and in need of a rebuild.

I don't understand how anyone couldve expected more than what they got. That's a fantastic return.
 

Curufinwe

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It's unlikely, but Coburn could still end up back here as a Flyer if he doesn't play so well in TB that they extend him. Hextall dealt him because he knows the Flyers aren't contenders this season or next. But in 16-17, who knows.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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:laugh:

Yep, that must it.

Brilliant.

I knew everyone would love that!

Coburn fetched more than any other dman traded at the deadline not named Yandle. If you were hoping for more, you overvalued Coburn. Period.

Yandle got a ton more than Coburn. He returned a 1st/2nd/one of the team's top prospects/and a very solid young NHL defenseman. I'm not expecting that. A 1st/3rd/bottom paid NHLer is nowhere near what Yandle returned. If TBL threw in a prospect or another pick or changed Gudas with a better NHLer, the return would still be nowhere near what Yandle got. Comparing it to Yandle is stupid as I am not saying Coburn should have gotten us what Yandle got the Yotes.

As for the whole ''our draft picks could turn into players worse than Coburn'' concern, yes that could happen. That doesn't mean you should be afraid to move proven players for picks when your team is trash and in need of a rebuild.

For the millionth ****ing time: I am not saying Coburn should not have been traded, I just think the return should have been more. There is a gamble in trading one of your best defensemen for futures, I would have liked to see more coming to the Flyers in the event those draft picks don't turn into NHLers of similar ilk of Coburn.
 

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