We hope. A late first rounder obviously has a good chance at making the NHL as a regular, but that is about as far as it goes. The argument I am making isn't that Coburn should not have been traded, quite the contrary, I just think Hextall should have gotten more. Coburn is on a very reasonable caphit for a guy that can play 20+ minutes a night and play those minutes well. He gets ripped on here constantly, but like most things, his "poor" play is greatly overstated. Last year he was untradeable to some unless we had a backup plan for a guy to take his minutes or were getting a top liner, now half a season or so later we are fine with picks and a bottom pairing guy with a goon-ish reputation.
If we are rebuilding, fine. Trade him. No problem with that at all. But now who plays those minutes? Who plays them next year? You don't think we were going to re-sign Coburn? The return did not improve this team. It gave us a draft pick that hopefully one day turns into a player that is as good as Coburn. I would have liked to see a better prospect coming our way or a better player than Gudas. TBL has one of the best prospect pools in the league, I would have pressed for more. If Yzerman says no, then I say ok and keep Coburn. Maybe deal him at the draft. Maybe hang on to him. If the plan is to insert a rookie in the lineup next year in Coburn's place, we are likely worse than this year. If we are going to sign someone to fill his shoes, it will likely be at a cost of at least the same hit as Coburn. I just think if we are going this route he should have gotten more.
Yes! Then everyone can be happy that the Flyers have the most draft picks and we can win the draft pick Cup! The dreams of HFBoard posters are finally coming true!
Coburn's value isn't going up from here on out. This was the perfect time to deal him considering what other top-4 defensemen around the league were going for. Coburn will be likely be looking for one last big pay day. Do you think it would make sense to give him 5.5-6 mil for 5+ years when we already have MacDonald on a long term deal and a number of defensive prospects getting ready to join the team in the next 2-3 years? That money is better spent on Voracek, Couturier, and Brayden Schenn. In 3-4 years there will be several other players looking for raises as well.
To your other point on whether this makes us a better team next year, no it doesn't. This team's focus shouldn't be on next year though, it should be 3-4 years from now. The way I see it, the team has Streit, McDonald, Schenn, Schultz, Del Zotto, and Gudas moving forward on the back end. I would hope that Hextall only plans on having 2-3 of them on the team in 2017 when the young prospects are hopefully ready to take on a bigger role. While the above isn't an attractive group of defenseman above, try and picture the following 3 years from now:
Morin(22)-Ghost(23)
Sanheim(21)-Del Zotto(27)
Gudas(27)-Hagg(22)
Schenn(27)
Yes, I understand the likelihood of all those defenseman filling their potential is slim to none, but if even two of them can turn into solid top 4 defenseman it is a much better situation than they had three days ago.
The extra 1st round pick is a gamble, but I think you have to trust what the team has done in the 1st round over the years. As the team stands right now, it is best to acquire as many assets as possible. Three years from now this is what they will have up front if no deals are made and the right forwards are re-signed:
Raffl(29)-Giroux(30)-Voracek(29)
Schenn(26)-Couturier(25)-Simmonds(29)
Leier(24)-Laughton(24)-Read(31)
Aube Kubel(21)-Cousins(24)-Bellemare(32)
That is a very capable group of forwards and that is filled with guys that can play a 2-way game.
The goaltending situation looks promising with Mason(29) and Stolarz(24).
That is a potential team without even including a top 10 pick and late 1st rounder this year who could both very well be players on that team. I don't foresee Hextall moving any high picks for the next several years either and they will likely have another top 15 pick next season.
If some of those defenseman don't pan out, which is very likely, you have plenty of assets to trade for one without crippling the system. Keep in mind all of the cap room that will be available after losing Lecavalier, Streit, Umberger, and Grossmann in a few years. The only players that are due for big raises are Voracek and possibly Mason. The defense core above won't be expensive at all and they will be in a position to be players in free agency.
I am aware this is an optimistic approach but it really is the only way you can succeed in the cap era. Build through drafting and developing players and make your move in trades/free agency when you have enough assets within the organization where you can afford to. Hextall is following the same blue print that led LA to two Stanley Cups. This method gives the organization a larger window to succeed.
