I agree, to a point. This season was absolutely an aberration, with several high-impact events -- loss of Buff, Little injury -- that were beyond the reach of most team orgs. So any comprehensive evaluation can allow for these as the one-offs they were and not look to lay blame.
But player evaluation and deployment, systems design and implementation, a PP that has been wretched for a long time now, concerning underlying stats in a number of areas, insistence on a top/bottom 6 at a time when many teams have emphasized a more flexible attack -- why can't these get a closer look? It isn't like these are directly attributable to the loss of Buff and Little, and Chevy knew the D would be weakened by the loss of Trouba, Myers and yes, even Chairot before Buff pulled his no-show, just as he knew that the PK and "energy line" setups would be the worse for the loss of Tanev. Why wasn't he on the horn 24/7 to shore up those weak spots?
Many hockey pundits and analysts, including several on HFJ, have been sounding the alartm since the start of the 2018/2019 regular season. The alarms got still louder in 2019. What was the result? Chevy bought in AHL tweeners and plugs, played them over some promising in-house talent (Niku -- who knows what we have in him?) then added an actual reinforcement in DD, which was a great move, especially if we can keep him at a reasonable cost. The Copp re-upping was acrimonious and maybe risks losing an important player, JoMo and KC signings were decent value, so well done there.
So I get the caution, and the forest-for-the-trees issue. But if not now, when? Scheifele isn't going to be in his prime and on a sweet deal for much longer, we still don't have a true 2C, have holes at D, bleed chances on the counter, a dysfunctional PP and some still underperforming players, including a once-generational scorer who is now a not-quite power forward, and in Roslo an exciting talent no one seems to know how to use. We are two years removed from being a top team in the league without an obvious path back to the top.
This isn't about blame for me. This year has been hellish, the late surge in March was encouraging, and I'm happy for it to end with a great draft pick we don't screw up. But a GM is paid a ton to see two, 3, 5 steps ahead -- that's their job, just as a coach is paid a ton to get the absolute best out of whichever players are available and healthy. If you run the bench, you take responsibility for the bench. I am concerned, however, by the seeming contradiction in our team makeup (speed, skill. creativity) and how we've played much of the past two years (chaotic, running around in all zones, emphasis on a "heavy game," etc). I feel like Chevy and PM need to spend a few weeks getting on the same page, with burner phones so Chipman can't call them. And then we need to stop playing 2014/15 hockey with 2020 talent in a 2020 league.
Edit: after I posted I realized this is the coaching and not the GM thread. When I get back to the office I will probably relocate my post.
None of what you are saying is unfair necessarily.
Here is how I see it:
From The get go Mark, Chevy, and his team decided they needed to build a culture where players would want to stay in Winnipeg. I think that shaped the Jets for a more conservative approach to building a contender. They felt they needed to find the balance of competing now and giving the vets a shot while building through the draft with their allotted picks....not more....not less. They did invest allot into bolstering their scouting department and they did spend on the development process but they never really stacked picks like a full rebuilding team.
- Chevy built methodically holding on to the old core from 2011 to 2017-18
- We did build up to the playoffs in 2013-14 and then decided to take a step back a bit after getting swept by the ducks but it was all half measures (not like we flipped Blake, Bryan, Toby, and Buff although we did move Ladd)
- The series of 1st round picks was impeccable (up to the Stanley debacle) and throw is Helle, Lowry, Copp and others and we were poised.
- We got lucky with a plug and play lottery win of Laine which bolstered that roster.
- The challenge was as we headed into 2017-18 it was evident our window was 2 seasons due to ELC advantage, cap leverage, and pending UFA and contract status.
- Chevy decided to sell off our 1st round picks in both seasons to go for it (which has left a bit of a hole)
- 2018-19 brought an end to the contender status but we still had a decent core.
-2019-20 was going to be a step back but with the exodus of Buff and the loss of Little it became a giant step back where we were propped up a Vezina goalie.
Now what?
Our current and future core is Scheif (27), Helle (27),
Laine (22), Ehlers (24), Connor (23), and Morrissey (25). World class goalie, high end scoring #1 center, 3 x highly skilled one way scoring wingers, and a #2 D man that plays clean and safe. One advantage is we have most of these guys on really good long term contracts with the exception of
the bolded. Next year Wheeler will most likely still be a key leader but his effectiveness as a core member will need to be established each season and there is a good chance he becomes more of a complementary asset.
Notwithstanding a lucky break we do not have any high end pedigree prospects in our pipe line that will join this core so what you see is currently what you get. We do have a nice D pipeline as far as depth and potential and I think we can fill out our top 4 from within or on value acquisitions (think DeMelo). A team can win a cup without an amazing D core. Both Chicago and Pittsburgh got it done with good but not exceptional D cores. I think our D replacements can be part of the Scheif Helle era as in as soon as next season but certainly within the next two seasons.
That leaves the obvious which is the massive hole at #2 center. Unless we win the lottery this year I don't think we can count on anyone we draft for 2 to 3 years.
It becomes pretty obvious to me if Little is on LTIR or even if he isn't we need to trade for or overpay for a #2 center starting next season.
We can't tread water this off season we need to get back to contender status right away or perhaps consider much bigger roster adjustments? Its not like we don't have really attractive assets on good contracts our issue is that our portfolio is over weighted in the scoring winger department and under represented at center. If we win the lottery I will re-post but for now my vote would be for a pretty aggressive off season reshaping the core of our roster. Its now or never with Mark and Helle at 27 who are our current top talents.
) replaces Blake on PP1 I'll believe it.
