Rumor: Chychrun To LA for Clarke

[rt]

I'm going to predict a Vilardi, 1st, and another prospect (one of Spence, Grans, or Laferriere) package.

I think Vilardi has become too valuable to their run, and they’d probably sooner part with this year’s version of last year’s Vilardi; Kaliyev. Who’s having a nice season with somewhat limited ice time and opportunities.

I think Spence makes sense for them since he deserves to be in the nhl but is stuck in the AHL, hopelessly blocked. And it’s hurting Grans’ development, having to play second fiddle to him. But if Grans gets Spence’s role, he can develop better and likely becomes the longer term piece they need. Timing is wrong for Spence with Doughty, Roy, and Durzi on the big club.

Kaliyev, Spence, and their ‘23 1st would be very intriguing to me as a package.

 

[GhostofTommyBolin]

Third point for Frank's argument (which weirdly enough he didn't mention) -- retaining on Chych means literally any team in the league could be a buyer. Chych at 50% would be 2.3m, literally any team would be able to fit him in.

Cup contending TB paid 2 1sts for Hagel. Would cup contending COL give us 3 firsts? Who knows but now at least they can be bidders

Colorado give up three 1sts? No. Two is a stretch for some teams, but worth it for those same teams. Giving up three years of your 1sts is too much for anyone, except maybe for Kenny Holland because he's an idiot.

 

[bmr]

I do know that Clarke isn't even in the same realm as Chychrun w/regards to skating, as we've already had our fair share of prospects who weren't great skaters and it never turns out well.

I always thought that Kings wouldn't put Clarke or Byfield on the table, and if the asking price has always been two 1sts and one 2nd...I really wouldn't consider Spence/Turcotte/Grans equivalent 1sts, because if you tried to trade any of those 3 for a 1st rounder no one would take it. So lets just say that the 2nd equivalent is one of Spence/Turcotte/Grans, then the '23 1st is included, what makes up the other equivalent 1st rounder?

I'll definitely give you that, but I think his skating gets a bad rap...he is still very mobile. The same thing happened when we drafted Toffoli - everyone was down on his skating but it didn't end up being a big deal. We've only seen him in a small sample size this year, but you can tell he just has the X factor in seeing the game so well.

Wasn't it Vilardi and a #1 pick last year for Chychrun? That would have ended up being a really solid trade for you guys w/ the year he's having.

 

[rt]

I do know that Clarke isn't even in the same realm as Chychrun w/regards to skating, as we've already had our fair share of prospects who weren't great skaters and it never turns out well.

I always thought that Kings wouldn't put Clarke or Byfield on the table, and if the asking price has always been two 1sts and one 2nd...I really wouldn't consider Spence/Turcotte/Grans equivalent 1sts, because if you tried to trade any of those 3 for a 1st rounder no one would take it. So let’s just say that the 2nd equivalent is one of Spence/Turcotte/Grans, then the '23 1st is included, what makes up the other equivalent 1st rounder?

Kaliyev.

 

[PainForShane]

Colorado give up three 1sts? No. Two is a stretch for some teams, but worth it for those same teams. Giving up three years of your 1sts is too much for anyone, except maybe for Kenny Holland because he's an idiot.

Yeah I don't think so either. My point was that if we do retain then literally every single team in the league could be a bidder if they want bc he easily fits in cap-wise anywhere (even more than now).

More teams (potentially) interested means price might increase bc potentially more bidders

 

[rt]

Petersen will have $11.25M in cash remaining at the deadline. If LA retains 23% that brings the cash down to $8.66M total. If we divide that by 2.25 seasons that brings us to AZ paying Petersen $3.85m in cash per season.

To figure out how much negative value Petersen has we need to come up with an estimate of how much he's worth. If Petersen were say a UFA this summer how much would he get on the market? Perhaps $1.5M to $2M backup money?

If we use $1.5M times 2.25 seasons that's $3.375M. The gap between Petersen's actual cash owed and that is $5.2875M ($8.66M - $3.375M).

If we use $2M times 2.25 seasons that's $4.16M and a gap of $4.5M.


The market rate for dead cash is roughly $4M to $5M for a 1st round pick. If you agree $1.5M to $2M is a fair estimate for Petersen's UFA market value, then even with retention he's worth a negative 1st round pick. If you think the actual value should be higher or lower than adjust the negative value higher or lower likewise.

If LA was trying to move Petersen without any retention we're getting closer to two negative 1sts of value, probably a little less, perhaps 1st + two 2nds.

So a negative first. But maybe we kinda like him and think we can help him. Maybe this means we don’t need to do retention on Chychrun. Maybe we just want to get this over with. So maybe we take a 2nd and prospect?

This conversation we are having right now is likely the same conversation that killed the deal by the way. Haha.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I'll definitely give you that, but I think his skating gets a bad rap...he is still very mobile. The same thing happened when we drafted Toffoli - everyone was down on his skating but it didn't end up being a big deal. We've only seen him in a small sample size this year, but you can tell he just has the X factor in seeing the game so well.

Wasn't it Vilardi and a #1 pick last year for Chychrun? That would have ended up being a really solid trade for you guys w/ the year he's having.

His problem is going to be "quickness"...which for a defender is a bad deal. We had Gormley who had the same difficulty and again, didn't turn out well. (not saying Clarke is Gormley, just pointing out that skating issues as a defender has never turned out well for us)

But like I said, never thought the Kings would trade Byfield/Clarke, there are other pieces from the Kings that I would prefer. Not a fan of Spence, we have our equivalent in Soderstrom and I don't want two sub 6' footers on the right side.

It will be fun to see what the actual package is once it's completed.

 

[GhostofTommyBolin]

Yeah I don't think so either. My point was that if we do retain then literally every single team in the league could be a bidder if they want, more teams (potentially) interested means price might increase bc potentially more bidders

For sure. Definitely opens up the list of suitors/bidders. Now it would be less of a shock if some random team came out of nowhere to snag him. Like Minnesota or Nashville(not saying either is interested but they've got the picks; not sure about their respective prospect pools.)

 

[PainForShane]

For sure. Definitely opens up the list of suitors/bidders. Now it would be less of a shock if some random team came out of nowhere to snag him. Like Minnesota or Nashville(not saying either is interested but they've got the picks; not sure about their respective prospect pools.)

Yeah exactly. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Wash or Pitt jumped in, would help them stay relevant through the end of Sid / Ovi.

Of course NYI could trade for him in which case they won't even both making an announcement we'll just see him dressing one day in an Isles' uniform

 

[Sinurgy]

Chychrun with 50% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + (2) B prospects
Chychrun with 25% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + B prospect
Chychrun = (2) 1sts + 2nd + B prospect
Eating someone's bad contract (E.g. Peterson) = 1st
Vejmelka = 1st

Does anyone have major beef with those numbers above? If so, where do you think I have it wrong in your opinion?

 

[rt]

Chychrun with 100% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + (2) B prospects
Chychrun with 50% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + B prospect
Chychrun = (2) 1sts + 2nd + B prospect
Eating someone's bad contract (E.g. Peterson) = 1st
Vejmelka = 1st

Does anyone have major beef with those numbers above? If so, where do you think I have it wrong in your opinion?

By 100% do you mean 50%?

And by 50% do you mean 25%?

Max is 50% so do you mean max and half of max, basically?

 

[mouser]

Chychrun with 100% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + (2) B prospects
Chychrun with 50% retention = (2) 1sts + (2) 2nds + B prospect
Chychrun = (2) 1sts + 2nd + B prospect
Eating someone's bad contract (E.g. Peterson) = 1st
Vejmelka = 1st

Does anyone have major beef with those numbers above? If so, where do you think I have it wrong in your opinion?

Chychrun with 50% retention = (3) 1sts + (2) 2nds

50% retention adds a 1st + 2nd not simply one 2nd imo.

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

I still think he's going to stay a Coyote.

 

[Sinurgy]

By 100% do you mean 50%?

And by 50% do you mean 25%?

Max is 50% so do you mean max and half of max, basically?

Yeah that's what I mean, basically 100% meaning "the max" but that's totally confusing, I edited it accordingly.

 

[Prestigeworldwide]

I still think he's going to stay a Coyote.

He's gonna stay a Coyote until hes traded, you're correct. He suited up for the last time for the yotes.

 

[Jamieh]

How good is Clarke? He hasn't played one game in the NHL. How good is Chych?

You might want to check that no nhl games played stat.

 

[Sinurgy]

Can we lock this thread and stick to a single Chychrun thread now that it seems like LA has balked?

 

[MIGs Dog]

I still think he's going to stay a Coyote.

No

 

[TheLegend]

Can we lock this thread and stick to a single Chychrun thread now that it seems like LA has balked?

Don’t think they’re out yet.

Just stay in the other one if you want.

 

[Jakey53]

I'm seriously struggling to see why so many Coyote fans saying things like "we knew Clarke was never really happening", like...why? It's f***ing Brandt Clark, it's not Rasmus Dahlin, the former wasn't even the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picked dman in his own draft class. He's a great prospect, don't get me wrong, but this talk about how the Coyotes are delusional to think Chychrun lands them Clark seem a bit ridiculous to me. Am I missing something, is Clarke a franchise D or something? Is he a near lock to be waaaaay better than Chychrun himself? I just don't get it, sometimes I think Coyotes fans are so used to being taken advantage of that we just can't fathom having it any other way.

Bingo.

 

[hbk]

Bingo.

Clarke is a top 10 prospect in the entire league. See Wheeler’s list today.

 

[rt]

Clarke is a top 10 prospect in the entire league. See Wheeler’s list today.

He admitted he’s his sentimental favorite. I think top 30 is real. Top 10 is a stretch. But to each their own. He’s seen him more than me.

 

[Jakey53]

You might want to check that no nhl games played stat.

Sorry, 9 games then back to junior.

 

[Jakey53]

Clarke is a top 10 prospect in the entire league. See Wheeler’s list today.

And Chych is top 12 in PPG in the NHL. Clarke is a good looking prospect, but not proven at the NHL level. He could be better than Chych in 4 yrs. but he could also be much worse.

 

[hbk]

And Chych is top 12 in PPG in the NHL. Clarke is a good looking prospect, but not proven at the NHL level. He could be better than Chych in 4 yrs. but he could also be much worse.

Would we put Cooley up in a deal for Matthews a year away from UFA?