Rumor: Chychrun Megathread (Asking price has been met per Sportsnet)

[cobra427]

If you are correct, then the return for him will not be close to what some expect. In order for Chychrun to warrant an elite package, teams need to fully believe he can be a steady, top-pairing D who can QB a PP and score 15G and 50+ points (think Dougie Hamilton). A 3/4 D, playing PP2 and getting 35 points a year isn't going to cut it.

I loved Chychrun last year and still like him as a player. I'm just concerned by the massive drop-off. Even if his "defensive game" struggled a little due to altered assignments, where on earth did his offense go? The Yotes reacclimated Ghost -- who was a cast-off in Philly -- and he was able to come in an take over the offensive role from Chychrun? This is concerning.

Chych had great goal production for 1 year just like Keller had 65 points his first year, they have both fizzled although Keller is coming back this year. Chych got 3/4D minutes last year with a good D partner in Goligoski. Chych also got first pairing PP minutes.

On a playoff team, I don't think he gets top pairing minutes on D, he just isn't there yet. But he is capable of first line PP minutes, I can see him in that role. His contract is cheap versus the value he brings, so that increases his trade value and he is still young, in another year or two, his D could be good enough for top pairing D minutes.

If your use is second pairing D and top pairing PP minutes, you will be very happy with Chych, plus you get his upside, only downside is his injury risk.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

My understanding is Zellweger is a much better prospect than I had thought and has made a case for being a 1st rounder in a redraft.

I'm not really informed on most of Anaheim's prospects, outside of McT.

He is 5 days away from being a top 10 pick in the 22 draft…. Fantastic skater, a lot of us were more impressed by his skating at rookie camp over drysdale.

only dmen in the 21 draft that I’d put above him is Clarke…. And they may be closer than people want to admit when you factor in the age difference

Sam girard is prob a really good comparable to what his potential is

 

[rt]

Barron+2023 second get it done for Crouse?

That’s one of the very, very few quality proposals I’ve seen from an opposing fan for Crouse.

Crouse is such a special player, and I’d really hate to lose him. He’s a huge physical specimen, actually uses his size to great advantage, is a great leader (by all accounts), he’s known as “The Sheriff” for a reason, and we’re now seeing him grow into not only a high level penalty killer and defensive forward but a guy who could potentially score 20 goals.

It’s so uncommon in the modern NHL to find big guys who can hit and fight and skate and PK and check and score goals and take a vocal leadership position as an outspoken player.

He’s a bit of a unicorn in that way. Most teams do not have a guy like Crouse on their roster or in their system. It’s why Tyler Boucher was a Top 10 pick. Teams want this. And it’s hard to come by.

Having said all that, with Chychrun on the block, Barron and a 2nd is an exceptionally appealing offer. That really helps take the sting off of losing an asset like Chcyhrun. Adding a big, strapping, offensive defensemen like Barron to the team just down the I-10 in Tucson is reassuring after the massive hole losing Chcyhrun will create.

If it was just Barron, I’d probably decline. But you added that nice asset in the 2023 2nd, that really just pushes the value over the top. It’s a little bit of an overpayment, and it gets me feeling greedy. I want to decline but I can’t.

Great proposal, man.

 

[rt]

My understanding is Zellweger is a much better prospect than I had thought and has made a case for being a 1st rounder in a redraft.

I'm not really informed on most of Anaheim's prospects, outside of McT.

I’d happily trade the Colorado 1st or the Carolina 1st for him. I’d be tempted, honestly, to add even our own 2nd, if needed, to get that done.

Of course I’m not suggesting Anaheim would deal him for picks, I’m just illustrating the value I’d place on him. If I could magically have Zellweger instead of the return we got for Kuemper or instead of the return we got for Dvorak, I would definitely make the choice to take Zellweger.

 

[rt]

Are we excluding this season for his trajectory? Does it not count in that equation rt? It just seems that there's a lot of weight being put on last season and not really much on this season.

Personally, I thought jumping from 26 points in 63 games to 41 points in 56 games did come out of nowhere.

Just as surprising as dropping all the way down to 9 points in 33 games with not so great defense is for me.

Good players do have bad seasons, but this level of bad along with this huge of a drop off in ebery aspect of his game is concerning. All of a sudden he's not a sure thing anymore in my mind.

I’m saying if you take the entirety of his career, you’re left with a fantastic player. And that focusing on just these 30 games doesn’t make sense.

I don’t agree that the jump came out of nowhere. He’s been in that path his whole life. It’s so rare for an 18 year old to walk onto an NHL team and play so well. And he just got better and better despite injuries, surgeries and set backs. He kept persevering and improving. The amazing thing is that he'd likely have achieved even more, even sooner if he just had better luck with injuries.

I'm not weighting last season. I'm talking about the totality of his entire hockey career since he was fifteen years old. I think you are giving putting an outrageous amount of weight on a single 30 game segment. He’s played over 300 NHL games. It sounds like you’d rather weight these 30 as 50% instead of 10%. It’s not fair, but moreover it just doesn’t make any sense.

 

[XX]

Chychrun isn't even in historically what is 'prime' territory for a D yet. And he has never been on a good team that is also coached properly. So this notion that other teams have the attention of goldfish and don't know how to value him is crazy. They do, and the price is so high that they're going to do their best to pick him off cheaper anyway possible.

 

[rt]

Are we excluding this season for his trajectory? Does it not count in that equation rt? It just seems that there's a lot of weight being put on last season and not really much on this season.

Personally, I thought jumping from 26 points in 63 games to 41 points in 56 games did come out of nowhere.

Just as surprising as dropping all the way down to 9 points in 33 games with not so great defense is for me.

Good players do have bad seasons, but this level of bad along with this huge of a drop off in ebery aspect of his game is concerning. All of a sudden he's not a sure thing anymore in my mind.

I’m saying if you take the entirety of his career, you’re left with a fantastic player. And that focusing on just these 30 games doesn’t make sense.

I don’t agree that the jump came out of nowhere. He’s been in that path his whole life. It’s so rare for an 18 year old to walk onto an NHL team and play so well. And he just got better and better despite injuries, surgeries and set backs. He kept persevering and improving. The amazing thing is that he'd likely have achieved even more, even sooner if he just had better luck with injuries.

I'm not weighting last season. I'm talking about the totality of his entire hockey career since he was fifteen years old. I think you are giving putting an outrageous amount of weight on a single 30 game segment. He’s played over 300 NHL games. It sounds like you’d rather weight these 30 as 50% instead of 10%. It’s not fair, but moreover it just doesn’t make any sense.

He’s 23. Looking at the three years prior to this one (not just the one big year):

Or if you want to isolate just the break out year :

The numbers indicate that THIS season is the outlier rather than LAST season. He’s been trending toward becoming the player he was last season since he was 15 years old. He’s only had two bad seasons in his life; this season and his draft year.

Apart from that it’s been up and up and up. Heck, even after that poor draft year (where he tried to do everything himself) and he fell from expected 2nd overall to 16th overall, he followed that up by walking right onto an NHL roster and stealing a spot the GM and Head Coach didn’t want him to have. They talked the whole time about going slow and giving him more time in Junior. He wouldn’t be denied. And despite multiple injuries, he just got better and better and better.

This year is bad. Nothing is going his way. But this isn’t like OEL where he was visibly struggling and declining sharply season after season. Chychrun has had a clear trajectory for years. This is a setback, but I’d be a lot of money this is the outlier and not last season. He finished Top10 in Norris voting. I’d bet a lot of money it won’t be the last time he does that.

 

[YotesFan47]

He is 5 days away from being a top 10 pick in the 22 draft…. Fantastic skater, a lot of us were more impressed by his skating at rookie camp over drysdale.

only dmen in the 21 draft that I’d put above him is Clarke…. And they may be closer than people want to admit when you factor in the age difference

Sam girard is prob a really good comparable to what his potential is

This question is obviously very subjective, but how good do you feel about him hitting that potential? Does he have an attributes that stand out as differentiators to Girard or are they pretty much cut from the same cloth?

How high would you peg Anaheim's motivation to make a deal for Chychrun? That roster is probably 2 years away from being considered "stacked", it seems like it's just a matter of bringing in the last of the high end youth and getting them acclimated to the NHL. Anaheim looks to have completed a near flawless rebuild over 4 seasons, something I hope we do as well.

BTW, didn't realize how impressive your record was for qualifying for the playoffs.

 

[rt]

Chychrun isn't even in historically what is 'prime' territory for a D yet. And he has never been on a good team that is also coached properly. So this notion that other teams have the attention of goldfish and don't know how to value him is crazy. They do, and the price is so high that they're going to do their best to pick him off cheaper anyway possible.

Adam Fox, who’s the reigning Norris Trophy winner is the same exact age as Jakob Chychrun (within a month). Chcyhrun has played more than twice as many NHL games.

This is the Jakob Chcyhrun story:
PPG by age:
19yrs - 28%
20yrs - 38%
21yrs - 42%
22yrs - 73%

It’s a young kid, waaay younger than most NHL defensemen (I feel like this board really doesn’t understand how unusual it is to be a regular defenseman in the NHL before you can buy beer), who’s taking steps every year to get better and better. He has a healthy off-season, is able to train, enjoys some continuity, and explodes.

Again, he was headed there all his life.

This season is the outlier. The only evidence anyone has to the contrary is gut instincts and bad feelings. Short of mysticism and voodoo and superstition, there’s no case to be made that Chcyhrun isn’t an absolutely elite player in his category (extremely young NHL defensemen).

 

[YotesFan47]

I’d happily trade the Colorado 1st or the Carolina 1st for him. I’d be tempted, honestly, to add even our own 2nd, if needed, to get that done.

Of course I’m not suggesting Anaheim would deal him for picks, I’m just illustrating the value I’d place on him. If I could magically have Zellweger instead of the return we got for Kuemper or instead of the return we got for Dvorak, I would definitely make the choice to take Zellweger.

I'm really digging Anaheim as the trade partner if Zell is as advertised. Taking everything we know into consideration, I'm kind of in the mindset of Comtois, Zellweger, Dostal, and '23 2nd as a perfectly acceptable return. Anaheim doesn't seem keen on trading 1sts and McT is off the table to my understanding. If BA is dead set on a goalie, Dostal seems like a good fit as a young, high quality guy. It helps that Anaheim has Gibson locked up for the foreseeable future. Maybe a conditional first, where if Anaheim makes the WCF, we get a 1st, otherwise it's a 2nd. If we can't do Dostal and have to have Perreault, I'd insist on a 1st.

I really do think Comtois should be part of the package though. BA seems to like big guys and Comtois has speed and the ability to distribute the puck very well, a skill set I think we'll want from a LW in the top 6. He really hasn't hit his offensive stride in Anaheim and a change of scenery could spark his next level of play.

 

[YotesFan47]

So right now, my preferred trade partner ranking for Chychrun is this:
1. Anaheim
2. Columbus
3. St. Louis
4. Los Angeles
5. New York Rangers
6. Florida

If Lundell was available than Florida would be #1. NYR would also move up above STL if Schneider is available.

 

[rt]

I'm really digging Anaheim as the trade partner if Zell is as advertised. Taking everything we know into consideration, I'm kind of in the mindset of Comtois, Zellweger, Dostal, and '23 2nd as a perfectly acceptable return. Anaheim doesn't seem keen on trading 1sts and McT is off the table to my understanding. If BA is dead set on a goalie, Dostal seems like a good fit as a young, high quality guy. It helps that Anaheim has Gibson locked up for the foreseeable future. Maybe a conditional first, where if Anaheim makes the WCF, we get a 1st, otherwise it's a 2nd. If we can't do Dostal and have to have Perreault, I'd insist on a 1st.

I really do think Comtois should be part of the package though. BA seems to like big guys and Comtois has speed and the ability to distribute the puck very well, a skill set I think we'll want from a LW in the top 6. He really hasn't hit his offensive stride in Anaheim and a change of scenery could spark his next level of play.

I’d rather have Perreault than Dostal. I don’t like giving up value for proven goalies, let alone unproven ones.

Comtois has proven more than Perreault. But I think Perreault has a bit less baggage coming with him.

Id rank the assets like this:

1. Zellweger
2. 2022 1st
3. Perreault
4. Comtois
5. Dostal

1 & 2 are must-haves for me. I’d let Anaheim choose the 3rd piece.

 

[rt]

So right now, my preferred trade partner ranking for Chychrun is this:
1. Anaheim
2. Columbus
3. St. Louis
4. Los Angeles
5. New York Rangers
6. Florida

If Lundell was available than Florida would be #1. NYR would also move up above STL if Schneider is available.

I didn’t include Carolina in my list earlier because they’re harder to fit into the formula. But if Seth Jarvis is on the table, they’re my #1 with a bullet. I like Jarvis more as a single asset than all the other top names from my list (Schneider, Zellweger, Neighbors, Turcotte, Ceulemans, etc).

I just don’t know how to formulate a Jarvis deal. I’d rather have Scott Morrow than their 2023 1st. I do know that. And I’d be happy to eat Gardiner as a dump. Does Chychrun for Gardiner, Jarvis and Morrow work for both sides? I really don’t know.

 

[YotesFan47]

I’d rather have Perreault than Dostal. I don’t like giving up value for proven goalies, let alone unproven ones.

Comtois has proven more than Perreault. But I think Perreault has a bit less baggage coming with him.

Id tank the assets like this:

1. Zellweger
2. 2022 1st
3. Perreault
4. Comtois
5. Dostal

1 & 2 are must-haves for me. I’d let Anaheim choose the 3rd piece.

I'd definitely prefer the 1st, but if I'm taking 4 assets instead of 3, I'm ok putting conditions on it. I feel good enough about Comtois, Dostal, and Zellweger as the return. I still really like the original deal too, just thinking if BA can get a goalie, he will. Dostal I would assume checks a lot of boxes for him.

 

[Kai Yo T]

He’s 23. Looking at the three years prior to this one (not just the one big year):

View attachment 504410

View attachment 504411

View attachment 504412

Or if you want to isolate just the break out year :

The numbers indicate that THIS season is the outlier rather than LAST season. He’s been trending toward becoming the player he was last season since he was 15 years old. He’s only had two bad seasons in his life; this season and his draft year.

Apart from that it’s been up and up and up. Heck, even after that poor draft year (where he tried to do everything himself) and he fell from expected 2nd overall to 16th overall, he followed that up by walking right onto an NHL roster and stealing a spot the GM and Head Coach didn’t want him to have. They talked the whole time about going slow and giving him more time in Junior. He wouldn’t be denied. And despite multiple injuries, he just got better and better and better.

This year is bad. Nothing is going his way. But this isn’t like OEL where he was visibly struggling and declining sharply season after season. Chychrun has had a clear trajectory for years. This is a setback, but I’d be a lot of money this is the outlier and not last season. He finished Top10 in Norris voting. I’d bet a lot of money it won’t be the last time he does that.

I certainly can't debate the stats rt, but this season he looks like he has all but forgotten how to play hockey (in comparison.) I don't think Chychrun is as good as last season says, nor is he as bad as this season says. But his trajectory has hit a brick wall, face first. Makes me question what he really is. Maybe he'll have a major rollercoaster of a career. Maybe he'll be elite. I think his problem is all in his head. Can he work it out? Maybe.

Edit: I'm turning this into the main board lol. I'll move along. Thanks for the insights.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

Anyone think Hayton has enough value to be added to a Chych deal, that would sway FL to include Lundell?

 

[YotesFan47]

I didn’t include Carolina in my list earlier because they’re harder to fit into the formula. But if Seth Jarvis is on the table, they’re my #1 with a bullet. I like Jarvis more as a single asset than all the other top names from my list (Schneider, Zellweger, Neighbors, Turcotte, Ceulemans, etc).

I just don’t know how to formulate a Jarvis deal. I’d rather have Scott Morrow than their 2023 1st. I do know that. And I’d be happy to eat Gardiner as a dump. Does Chychrun for Gardiner, Jarvis and Morrow work for both sides? I really don’t know.

I didn't either but because I think they are less involved than the media has maybe lead us to believe.

You're high on Jarvis (justifiably so), he's not a deal breaker for me. Drury/Suzuki + Ponomarev + Morrow + '23 1st is just as appealing in my eyes but I'm kinda high on Ponomarev. He seems to be having a bit of a rough year in Russia but I loved what he was doing in Shawinigan.

 

[YotesFan47]

Anyone think Hayton has enough value to be added to a Chych deal, that would sway FL to include Lundell?

No, but I also don't think we should give up on him yet either. He's playing decent and if/when he gets his offense going, he'll be worth a lot more.

 

[Perratrooper]

That’s one of the very, very few quality proposals I’ve seen from an opposing fan for Crouse.

Crouse is such a special player, and I’d really hate to lose him. He’s a huge physical specimen, actually uses his size to great advantage, is a great leader (by all accounts), he’s known as “The Sheriff” for a reason, and we’re now seeing him grow into not only a high level penalty killer and defensive forward but a guy who could potentially score 20 goals.

It’s so uncommon in the modern NHL to find big guys who can hit and fight and skate and PK and check and score goals and take a vocal leadership position as an outspoken player.

He’s a bit of a unicorn in that way. Most teams do not have a guy like Crouse on their roster or in their system. It’s why Tyler Boucher was a Top 10 pick. Teams want this. And it’s hard to come by.

Having said all that, with Chychrun on the block, Barron and a 2nd is an exceptionally appealing offer. That really helps take the sting off of losing an asset like Chcyhrun. Adding a big, strapping, offensive defensemen like Barron to the team just down the I-10 in Tucson is reassuring after the massive hole losing Chcyhrun will create.

If it was just Barron, I’d probably decline. But you added that nice asset in the 2023 2nd, that really just pushes the value over the top. It’s a little bit of an overpayment, and it gets me feeling greedy. I want to decline but I can’t.

Great proposal, man.

It’s an over pay, but when you look at the age and what he bring I think it’s worth it. Maybe a bigger trade could be worked on around that with Kessel or cap going back to help the Avs out a bit?

What sort of return are you hoping for on Kessel at 50%?

 

[Jakey53]

Anyone think Hayton has enough value to be added to a Chych deal, that would sway FL to include Lundell?

Please say yes Florida!

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

This question is obviously very subjective, but how good do you feel about him hitting that potential? Does he have an attributes that stand out as differentiators to Girard or are they pretty much cut from the same cloth?

How high would you peg Anaheim's motivation to make a deal for Chychrun? That roster is probably 2 years away from being considered "stacked", it seems like it's just a matter of bringing in the last of the high end youth and getting them acclimated to the NHL. Anaheim looks to have completed a near flawless rebuild over 4 seasons, something I hope we do as well.

View attachment 504409

BTW, didn't realize how impressive your record was for qualifying for the playoffs.

I think if we added chychrun, and an impactful forward (draft/free agency/trade) we’re prob in a really good spot, assuming lindholm resigns also.

the team has been trying to add top end established young talent for a while now…. Been in on laine, eichel, PLD etc. won’t be shocked if we are looking hard a Fiala/Tkachuk situations also . I think we love chychurn and his game is a good fit with what we already have defensively.

So I hope he’s high on our agenda… but also pretty hard to tell because we don’t exactly have a gm right now either.

ideally we use our expendable prospect/draft assets to snag chychurn and fiala. Chychurn has had a bit of an off year but his potential is sky high… wish he was rhd but Fowler plays fine on his off side

 

[YotesFan47]

I think if we added chychrun, and an impactful forward (draft/free agency/trade) we’re prob in a really good spot, assuming lindholm resigns also.

the team has been trying to add top end established young talent for a while now…. Been in on laine, eichel, PLD etc. won’t be shocked if we are looking hard a Fiala/Tkachuk situations also . I think we love chychurn and his game is a good fit with what we already have defensively.

So I hope he’s high on our agenda… but also pretty hard to tell because we don’t exactly have a gm right now either.

ideally we use our expendable prospect/draft assets to snag chychurn and fiala. Chychurn has had a bit of an off year but his potential is sky high… wish he was rhd but Fowler plays fine on his off side

Oh man, imagine adding Chychrun and Fiala to that group. Next year McT. You guys are close to scary and you have cap for DAYZ.

 

[Jagged Ice]

I think if we added chychrun, and an impactful forward (draft/free agency/trade) we’re prob in a really good spot, assuming lindholm resigns also.

the team has been trying to add top end established young talent for a while now…. Been in on laine, eichel, PLD etc. won’t be shocked if we are looking hard a Fiala/Tkachuk situations also . I think we love chychurn and his game is a good fit with what we already have defensively.

So I hope he’s high on our agenda… but also pretty hard to tell because we don’t exactly have a gm right now either.

ideally we use our expendable prospect/draft assets to snag chychurn and fiala. Chychurn has had a bit of an off year but his potential is sky high… wish he was rhd but Fowler plays fine on his off side

Fiala and Boldy are really clicking in Minnesota. I don't see the Wild moving Fiala even though he and Evason have had some issues.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Fiala and Boldy are really clicking in Minnesota. I don't see the Wild moving Fiala even though he and Evason have had some issues.

They have a lot of cap issues…. I don’t think it’s a situation where they want to move fiala…. But I also don’t know if they can manage to stay under cap without moving him

I also think boldy is fantastic and will click with anyone they put him with , they have Rossi coming…. I assume in a trade with Anaheim 1 if pastujov comtois or Tracey is coming back

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Oh man, imagine adding Chychrun and Fiala to that group. Next year McT. You guys are close to scary and you have cap for DAYZ.

Ya that’s kinda the dream, tho chychurn might be seen as a luxury… we have lindholm and Fowler…. But chychrun is such a different player from those 2