Value of: Chris Tierney or Mikkel Boedker at the draft

[Jame]

How on earth is Lernout a comparable for Tierney? Tierney is proven to be somebody who can produce and play like a #3C. He scored 40 points this year and has played over 300 NHL games and scored over 100 points at age 23. A comparable player would be a proven NHL defenseman whose production and performance is bordering on a top-4 level but has flaws that might prevent them from truly reaching that level. Not a 22 year old defenseman who has one assist in 18 NHL games and “didn’t look lost” in those games.

Boedker and Tierney
for
McCabe and 4th rounder

McCabe, 24 yr old LD, 215 NHL games

 

[Kcoyote3]

Yea... you're not getting a 20 year old 8th overall pick for a cap dump and Tierny....

So Okposo is a cap dump then too right?

 

[Jame]

So Okposo is a cap dump then too right?

absolutely. You want him?

 

[Groo]

Boedker and Tierney
for
McCabe and 4th rounder

McCabe, 24 yr old LD, 215 NHL games

Easy pass.

 

[SnS]

I’d be interested in Tierney.

What would be the cost from Philadelphia?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Boedker and Tierney
for
McCabe and 4th rounder

McCabe, 24 yr old LD, 215 NHL games

McCabe is pretty much strictly a bottom pairing guy though and lacks offensive upside. I would be looking for somebody with a bit more offensive upside and more potential as a whole.

 

[Kcoyote3]

absolutely. You want him?

Nope. Just that Boedker is a 40 point player signed for 4 million for 2 years. He's not a cap dump. He alone could catch a 2nd or a 3rd + 4th.

 

[rt]

I think Boedker to Arizona for #74OV is pretty realistic. I really doubt we see him playing for the Sharks next year.

Tierney, I’m not so sure about either way. I don’t know if he’s getting traded or not. If he is, I think the trade could be based on him and a similar defender. (RFA, ~age 23, not a true top-6/4 guy but does well in a more insulated role.) However, I could also see him being the “roster player” in a classic “roster player+prospect+1st” type of trade, which I suspect there is a high chance of DW making at some point between right now and opening day.

Tierney basically signed for a qualifying offer last year. I dunno, something tells me DW doesn't want to pay him what he's probably worth. With Suomela and Gambrell coming in, I just really feel like he's going to dangle Tierney hard at the draft.

Pavelski/Donskoi/Boedker/Labanc is too many RWers for three lines, and none of them fit a 4th line role. I think one of them is being moved, and Boedker is most likely.

How about Panik? Moves a guy out of the crowded RW position, and gets you a LW? Panik is a year younger and his 2.8m cap hit ends this season, rather than the two years remaining on Boedker's 4m hit. They had similar production last season. Panik's was much better the year before. Boedker has better historical production.

For AZ, they get a familiar face in Boedker, who's good friends with OEL and is probably a good fit culturally as a result. His actual salary the next two years is only 3m so, he carries a slightly lower cost than cap, which Arizona is always keen on. There's at least some small chance his scoring picks back up and he starts producing again like he did when he was last a Coyote. Panik was fine for us, and played quite well when paired with our two most productive forwards. Like Boedker, he's a very replaceable player.

 

[Jame]

McCabe is pretty much strictly a bottom pairing guy though and lacks offensive upside. I would be looking for somebody with a bit more offensive upside and more potential as a whole.

Strictly? No... he could be a good 2nd pairing guy with the right partner

He had a more difficult deployment (ZS/QC) than Dylan and Ryan did (both of whom spent significant time with Burns). And he produced a better GF60Rel....

So.... he's kind of an upgrade.

 

[Kcoyote3]

absolutely. You want him?

And also, when Tierney was 20 he was PPG in the AHL. Then this year he put up 40 points.

Nylander hasn't been able to put up respectful numbers in the AHL for two seasons, and his defensive game is still lackluster. So undercutting Tierney is funny because he may have just put up more points in the NHL than Nylander ever will.

 

[Jame]

Nope. Just that Boedker is a 40 point player signed for 4 million for 2 years. He's not a cap dump. He alone could catch a 2nd or a 3rd + 4th.

yea... I agree with that. When you're trading a 28 year old player with term, who makes decent coin.... for mid round picks with a low probability of turning out... you're dumping cap.

You're willing to accept a "rental" type of return for 2 years of Boedker... because you need the cap space for more important players/improvements.

 

[Jame]

And also, when Tierney was 20 he was PPG in the AHL. Then this year he put up 40 points.

Nylander hasn't been able to put up respectful numbers in the AHL for two seasons, and his defensive game is still lackluster. So undercutting Tierney is funny because he may have just put up more points in the NHL than Nylander ever will.

I'm not undercutting Tierney... I love his game. I would like to acquire him.

Maybe you've got some good examples of a team trading a recent top 10 pick... for a very good bottom 6 forward... I can't think of any.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Strictly? No... he could be a good 2nd pairing guy with the right partner

He had a more difficult deployment (ZS/QC) than Dylan and Ryan did (both of whom spent significant time with Burns). And he produced a better GF60Rel....

So.... he's kind of an upgrade.

Do you mean Brenden Dillon or Dylan DeMelo? He is an upgrade on DeMelo, sure. Dillon, I don’t think so.

Also, LO f***ING L at using GF/60 rel as a reliable metric to blatantly state that a Sabres player is better than a player on another team. Jason Pominville had a higher GF/60 rel than any player on the Sharks, is he a better player?

 

[Jame]

Do you mean Brenden Dillon or Dylan DeMelo? He is an upgrade on DeMelo, sure. Dillon, I don’t think so.

Also, LO ****ING L at using GF/60 rel as a reliable metric to blatantly state that a Sabres player is better than a player on another team. Jason Pominville had a higher GF/60 rel than any player on the Sharks, is he a better player?

Brendan Dillon... last two years.... vs McCabe. With the caveat that Dillon played on a contender... while McCabe played on one of the worst teams in the league.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Wouldn't trade Timmins for him, but would definitely love Tierney on the Avs. I would package Meloche + something nice with him, depending on what else the Sharks are looking for. Andrighetto?

 

[Painful Quandary]

Wouldn't trade Timmins for him, but would definitely love Tierney on the Avs. I would package Meloche + something nice with him, depending on what else the Sharks are looking for. Andrighetto?

Very tempting. Andrighetto had great chemistry with Meier at the IIHF this year.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I'm not undercutting Tierney... I love his game. I would like to acquire him.

Maybe you've got some good examples of a team trading a recent top 10 pick... for a very good bottom 6 forward... I can't think of any.

Forsberg
Crouse traded to dump cap
Teravainen for picks
Nieds for a bottom 6 forward
Paajarvi traded 3 years after drafted

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How about Panik? Moves a guy out of the crowded RW position, and gets you a LW? Panik is a year younger and his 2.8m cap hit ends this season, rather than the two years remaining on Boedker's 4m hit. They had similar production last season. Panik's was much better the year before. Boedker has better historical production.

For AZ, they get a familiar face in Boedker, who's good friends with OEL and is probably a good fit culturally as a result. His actual salary the next two years is only 3m so, he carries a slightly lower cost than cap, which Arizona is always keen on. There's at least some small chance his scoring picks back up and he starts producing again like he did when he was last a Coyote. Panik was fine for us, and played quite well when paired with our two most productive forwards. Like Boedker, he's a very replaceable player.

The team is not likely looking for another winger to replace him as they have plenty of those. I'd probably be happy with Minnesota's 2nd round pick for Boedker just to clear the roster space needed. The cap space is really only needed if Tavares is legitimately an option for San Jose which I'm assuming is not until he actually signs. lol

 

[Jame]

Forsberg
Crouse traded to dump cap
Teravainen for picks
Nieds for a bottom 6 forward
Paajarvi traded 3 years after drafted

Forsberg - arguably viewed as 1 of the worst trades of the last decade, not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward. The value was in the 2 year rental of a 50 point top 6 forward

Crouse - traded to get rid of Bolland. not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward, but instead to rid a horrid contract

Teravainen - traded by a severly cap strapped team to unload Bickell, not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward.

Nieds - probably a top 10 worst trade of the last decade... good example.

Paajarvi - after 163 busted NHL games

These are your examples for why Buffalo should trade a 20 year old top 10 for a bottom 6 forward?

Buffalo is not trying to dump someone in the deal (Crouse, Teravainen)
Buffalo is not going mental to try and win a cup (Forsberg)
Nylander is not an NHL bust (Paajaarvi)
And... well Garth Snow isn't our GM....I hope.

 

[PackShark]

I’d definitely like to hold onto Tierney, but I also don’t see him producing much more than he did last season. Not the worst idea in the world to deal him while he has some value.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Forsberg - arguably viewed as 1 of the worst trades of the last decade, not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward. The value was in the 2 year rental of a 50 point top 6 forward

Crouse - traded to get rid of Bolland. not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward, but instead to rid a horrid contract

Teravainen - traded by a severly cap strapped team to unload Bickell, not traded for the value of a bottom 6 forward.

Nieds - probably a top 10 worst trade of the last decade... good example.

Paajarvi - after 163 busted NHL games

These are your examples for why Buffalo should trade a 20 year old top 10 for a bottom 6 forward?

Buffalo is not trying to dump someone in the deal (Crouse, Teravainen)
Buffalo is not going mental to try and win a cup (Forsberg)
Nylander is not an NHL bust (Paajaarvi)
And... well Garth Snow isn't our GM....I hope.

You asked, those are some recent examples. It happens, especially when that top 10 pick is struggling.

Also this is two 40 point forwards, one of which is 23 and an RFA. Neither are rentals, neither are expensive.

Again, what has Nylander proven above Tierney at any level except for being drafted 40 places higher?

Also McCabe and a 4th is insulting for two 40 point players and I think you know that.

 

[Nolan11]

I’d be interested in Tierney.

What would be the cost from Philadelphia?

Honestly, I don't follow you guys enough to value your non-blue chip prospects. I personally could see us moving Tierney and our 21 OA for your 14 OA pick....

 

[stevo61]

As Spin brought up on the CBJ board Tierney would be a great option for Columbus. Dubois-Wennberg-Tierney would be good depth and lots of internal competition.
What San Jose would want from Columbus I have no idea

 

[Jame]

You asked, those are some recent examples. It happens, especially when that top 10 pick is struggling.

I asked for examples of them being traded for a bottom 6 forward..... you provided one, the dopey Garth Snow trade that's laughable today.

The other examples you provided do not represent the value of a bottom 6 forward, they were traded for vastly different value/reasons.

Also this is two 40 point forwards, one of which is 23 and an RFA. Neither are rentals, neither are expensive.

We've already agreed that Boedker's value is something akin to a 3rd and 4th rounder....

Again, what has Nylander proven above Tierney at any level except for being drafted 40 places higher?

So you think Tierney is worth a top 10 pick in the 2018 draft? Since... those guys haven't proven anything yet either.

Weak arguments

Also McCabe and a 4th is insulting for two 40 point players and I think you know that.

I know that trade value isn't determined in such simple ways.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

yea... I agree with that. When you're trading a 28 year old player with term, who makes decent coin.... for mid round picks with a low probability of turning out... you're dumping cap.

You're willing to accept a "rental" type of return for 2 years of Boedker... because you need the cap space for more important players/improvements.

The only reason Boedker is available at this juncture is because the Sharks have seven top-9 caliber wingers and only six spots in their top-9 to fill it. Some winger on the Sharks will be on the move. Unless they're actually going to get Tavares, they don't need the cap space Boedker's cap dump would provide. So they're not in a position where they need to take less to dump cap. They would take a rental like return because they may like to recoup the 2nd and 3rd round draft picks that they lost in this draft to Toronto. The only non-Tavares option here is maybe a package deal for a defenseman like say Boedker and Heed to Toronto for Gardiner. They're not positioned in a manner where they need to dump cap and take less to do so. At this point, Boedker's pick value should be in the late-2nd, early 3rd round range as a solid 2nd liner on a very good contract.