Confirmed with Link: Chris Stewart

[KickHisAssZegrass]

I don't see Stewart replacing Beleskey at all. He doesn't have remotely the same type of shot, and doesn't provide remotely the level of physicality and hitting that Beleskey did. I also don't think that a 15 goal guy replaces a 22 goal guy, unless you're also willing to say that an 8 goal guy rep,aces a 15 goal guy. (It's irrelevant what people think Beleskey will do this year, that's what he DID last year). I really think people are understating Beleskey's physical impact and grossly overestimating what Stratton brings in that department on a game to game basis.

The whole "he out scores Beleskey" thing is also misleading (assuming he's the third line guy), unless you're convinced he will be racking up assists on the PP or convinced that Rakell and/or Sekac will develop shots. You can't give out three assists and score, someone has to be able to actually get it past the goalie to get an assist.

He's not a bad pickup, but he's hardly the missing piece.

As much as I like Bels, I dont think he ever hits 20 goals again. Offensively Stewart is just better, definitely more talented. Put on a line with a little playmaking, and defensively responsible, he should be a good fit. That being said I think Bels' energy and compete level make him a better player overall. All in all I'll take Stewie for a 1.75 show me contract over Bels' UFA cashing in contract.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

You think Dallas, the team with the best offense last year, needed to acquire Sharp? No, GM Nill did it because the reward far outweighed the price. Same goes for GMBM signing Stewart. He'll likely be a fixture on our 3rd line, put up more than 30 points, and all for the small price of a one-year, $2 million contract.

In a cap world, nothing is a good deal if you don't need it. Especially a contract like Sharp's. You might not think Dallas needed what Sharp had to offer, but their GM obviously did.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I don't see Stewart replacing Beleskey at all. He doesn't have remotely the same type of shot, and doesn't provide remotely the level of physicality and hitting that Beleskey did. I also don't think that a 15 goal guy replaces a 22 goal guy, unless you're also willing to say that an 8 goal guy rep,aces a 15 goal guy. (It's irrelevant what people think Beleskey will do this year, that's what he DID last year). I really think people are understating Beleskey's physical impact and grossly overestimating what Stratton brings in that department on a game to game basis.

The whole "he out scores Beleskey" thing is also misleading (assuming he's the third line guy), unless you're convinced he will be racking up assists on the PP or convinced that Rakell and/or Sekac will develop shots. You can't give out three assists and score, someone has to be able to actually get it past the goalie to get an assist.

He's not a bad pickup, but he's hardly the missing piece.

When it comes to saying he's replacing Beleskey, yes it absolutely matters what Beleskey would do this year. If we had kept Beleskey, then by your logic, those goals still would have been lost.

Also worth noting that last year's 14 goals was Stewart's worst rate of his career. If you're going to depend on one of the two to score 22 goals, it wouldn't be Beleskey.

 

[Ducks DVM]

As much as I like Bels, I dont think he ever hits 20 goals again. Offensively Stewart is just better, definitely more talented. Put on a line with a little playmaking, and defensively responsible, he should be a good fit. That being said I think Bels' energy and compete level make him a better player overall. All in all I'll take Stewie for a 1.75 show me contract over Bels' UFA cashing in contract.

Well put.

I really do think that Beleskey forechecking was a whole lot of what made the second line work, forcing turnovers and opening up space for Silfverberg. I think so many people are in the "my significant other spurned me so they were as never as good as they seemed to be and by the way they'll never do as well again" moment over Beleskey that they're overlooking the other things he brought to that line. (Not saying that you're doing that)

 

[Ducks DVM]

When it comes to saying he's replacing Beleskey, yes it absolutely matters what Beleskey would do this year. If we had kept Beleskey, then by your logic, those goals still would have been lost.

Also worth noting that last year's 14 goals was Stewart's worst rate of his career. If you're going to depend on one of the two to score 22 goals, it wouldn't be Beleskey.

Stewart has scored over 18 goals exactly one time in his career. So that's not actually a safe assumption. His actual goal totals are 11, 28, 13, 15, 15, 18, 15, 14. He had ludicrously high shooting percentages for most of his better years. When he can play an entire season and get to 20 goals we can say he's more likely to get there.

If you want to play the "on pace for" game, then Beleskey was a 28 goal scorer this year. I also don't know why people think he can't hit 20 again. He's always had an incredibly hard shot, he now has some control over it. 15.2% is a little high for a shooting %, but it's not an astronomical number, and is in line with many of Stewart's best years. (That 28 goal season was an aberration).

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Stewart has scored over 18 goals exactly one time in his career. So that's not actually a safe assumption. His actual goal totals are 11, 28, 13, 15, 15, 18, 15, 14. He had ludicrously high shooting percentages for most of his better years. When he can play an entire season and get to 20 goals we can say he's more likely to get there.

If you want to play the "on pace for" game, then Beleskey was a 28 goal scorer this year. I also don't know why people think he can't hit 20 again. He's always had an incredibly hard shot, he now has some control over it. 15.2% is a little high for a shooting %, but it's not an astronomical number, and is in line with many of Stewart's best years. (That 28 goal season was an aberration).

Beleskey was awesome this year, but he scored some of the luckiest goals I have ever seen he must have had a 4 leaf clover in his pocket.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Stewart has scored over 18 goals exactly one time in his career. So that's not actually a safe assumption. His actual goal totals are 11, 28, 13, 15, 15, 18, 15, 14. He had ludicrously high shooting percentages for most of his better years. When he can play an entire season and get to 20 goals we can say he's more likely to get there.

If you want to play the "on pace for" game, then Beleskey was a 28 goal scorer this year. I also don't know why people think he can't hit 20 again. He's always had an incredibly hard shot, he now has some control over it. 15.2% is a little high for a shooting %, but it's not an astronomical number, and is in line with many of Stewart's best years. (That 28 goal season was an aberration).

Stewart actually scored 28 in both the 2009-10 and 10-11 seasons. Also a very productive 18G/18A in the lockout shortened season. I don't think it's any stretch to think that Stewart can replace the production from Beleskey. I do agree he's nowhere near as gritty however.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Stewart has scored over 18 goals exactly one time in his career. So that's not actually a safe assumption. His actual goal totals are 11, 28, 13, 15, 15, 18, 15, 14. He had ludicrously high shooting percentages for most of his better years. When he can play an entire season and get to 20 goals we can say he's more likely to get there.

If you want to play the "on pace for" game, then Beleskey was a 28 goal scorer this year. I also don't know why people think he can't hit 20 again. He's always had an incredibly hard shot, he now has some control over it. 15.2% is a little high for a shooting %, but it's not an astronomical number, and is in line with many of Stewart's best years. (That 28 goal season was an aberration).

I always find it funny that people count his two separate stints in 2011 as separate years. So, yes, he scored over 18 twice, and then he scored 18 during the lockout year, and then he scored 15 in 63 games the year after. I'm much more inclined to say the aberrations were 2012 and his stint with the historically bad Sabres.

It's funny you bring up shooting percentages, because they support that. Chris Stewart's shooting percentages are remarkably consistent, be they 5v5 or total. The two numbers that stick out are this past year and 2012. So, while they seem ludicrous to you, he's been fairly consistent that way (especially 5v5). Beleskey, not as much. This past year sticks out a decent bit.

I don't even doubt Beleskey will score 20 again, and I would've loved if he stayed, but being realistic, Stewart's the safer bet to hit 20. As long as he plays 70 games he should do it. There's just a lot more doubt with Beleskey on his ability to repeat.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Stewart is an upgrade over Etem, and while Palmieri is more skilled than Stewart, he was not as well suited to the role being given to him as Stewart is. Stewart adds some physical dimension that the team lost with Beleskey leaving. He doesn't have to fill the same roster spot to do that.

I'm not going to do a dance about it, man. Stewart replaces Palmieri, Hagelin replaces Beleskey, Etem's replacement is...nobody, but he wasn't a major contributor. Beauch is replaced by Bieksa, which I think is a bigger downgrade than many are anticipating, although Bieksa's not terrible. We're more or less where we were when the season ended now. You can move the sliders down on physicality and up on speed, if you like, but in terms of impact I'm not seeing much. Stewart's a lazy skilled floater just like his predecessor, but he'll hit. Hagelin's a 35-pt guy like his predecessor, can't finish but can fly. Okay.

I like the Horcoff addition because that's a real addition, once Thompson gets back. Otherwise it's all kind of a big So What.

 

[AngelDuck]

Stewart has scored over 18 goals exactly one time in his career. So that's not actually a safe assumption. His actual goal totals are 11, 28, 13, 15, 15, 18, 15, 14. He had ludicrously high shooting percentages for most of his better years. When he can play an entire season and get to 20 goals we can say he's more likely to get there.

If you want to play the "on pace for" game, then Beleskey was a 28 goal scorer this year. I also don't know why people think he can't hit 20 again. He's always had an incredibly hard shot, he now has some control over it. 15.2% is a little high for a shooting %, but it's not an astronomical number, and is in line with many of Stewart's best years. (That 28 goal season was an aberration).

Ummm, he actually scored 28 two years in a row and then 15 the year after, then another 18 in 48 games (lockout season). There was a time period where he was considered one of the top power forwards in the league (a little over 2 years ago). Those days are probably over for him but there's no reason why he can't pot 15-20 next year and score 40 points. Hell, he damn near did that last year despite playing on a historically bad offensive team for almost the whole year. His numbers in Minnesota were fine and he's clearly a solid depth player if he can keep that up for a full season

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Ummm, he actually scored 28 two years in a row and then 15 the year after, then another 18 in 48 games (lockout season). There was a time period where he was considered one of the top power forwards in the league (a little over 2 years ago). Those days are probably over for him but there's no reason why he can't pot 15-20 next year and score 40 points. Hell, he damn near did that last year despite playing on a historically bad offensive team for almost the whole year. His numbers in Minnesota were fine and he's clearly a solid depth player if he can keep that up for a full season

It will obviously vary with his role, as these might be the fewest minutes he's ever seen, but based on his career, you'd think that he's pretty much guaranteed for 15. Outside of his rookie year, 14 last year was his lowest total yet.

 

[gratefulyours]

don't think this guy is going to replace what we lost in bells offensively. i don't know enough about him to comment on the physical side, but bells was a wreaking ball (a fairly effective one once he stopped fighting as much) and that will be missed.

if beleskey has decent linemates, i think he will easily hit 20 again and push for 30 (baring injury).

 

[Ducks DVM]

I always find it funny that people count his two separate stints in 2011 as separate years. So, yes, he scored over 18 twice, and then he scored 18 during the lockout year, and then he scored 15 in 63 games the year after. I'm much more inclined to say the aberrations were 2012 and his stint with the historically bad Sabres.

It's funny you bring up shooting percentages, because they support that. Chris Stewart's shooting percentages are remarkably consistent, be they 5v5 or total. The two numbers that stick out are this past year and 2012. So, while they seem ludicrous to you, he's been fairly consistent that way (especially 5v5). Beleskey, not as much. This past year sticks out a decent bit.

I don't even doubt Beleskey will score 20 again, and I would've loved if he stayed, but being realistic, Stewart's the safer bet to hit 20. As long as he plays 70 games he should do it. There's just a lot more doubt with Beleskey on his ability to repeat.

28G '10-11 - 17.3%
18G '12-13 - 18.6%

Those both are actually pretty damned high compared to his other years. 11.2, 12.7, 9.0, 13.6, 8.4.

Ummm, he actually scored 28 two years in a row and then 15 the year after, then another 18 in 48 games (lockout season). There was a time period where he was considered one of the top power forwards in the league (a little over 2 years ago). Those days are probably over for him but there's no reason why he can't pot 15-20 next year and score 40 points. Hell, he damn near did that last year despite playing on a historically bad offensive team for almost the whole year. His numbers in Minnesota were fine and he's clearly a solid depth player if he can keep that up for a full season

Yup, missed the second year. That was quite a while ago though, and on a Colorado team that didn't really play defense.

What I was responding to was that Stewart was more likely to score 20 than Beleskey next season, and there's not actually any data that backs that statement up. He won't be getting the top line minutes that he's gotten elsewhere to accumulate those shots.

 

[Exit Dose]

I'm not going to do a dance about it, man. Stewart replaces Palmieri, Hagelin replaces Beleskey, Etem's replacement is...nobody, but he wasn't a major contributor. Beauch is replaced by Bieksa, which I think is a bigger downgrade than many are anticipating, although Bieksa's not terrible. We're more or less where we were when the season ended now. You can move the sliders down on physicality and up on speed, if you like, but in terms of impact I'm not seeing much. Stewart's a lazy skilled floater just like his predecessor, but he'll hit. Hagelin's a 35-pt guy like his predecessor, can't finish but can fly. Okay.

I like the Horcoff addition because that's a real addition, once Thompson gets back. Otherwise it's all kind of a big So What.

Hagelin is a stud penalty killer. That is something that he has on his predecessor.

I don't disagree that Bieksa for Beauchemin looks like a downgrade, but that situation is what it is. I'm not in the camp expecting him to replace what we lost there. I'm just happy that it's Bieksa as the replacement, as Wisniewski was miscast for that job.

Etem's replacement would be either Horcoff or Rakell. I'd take either of them over him.

All of that is beside the point, which is that there is nothing on the face of this signing that should warrant dragging the complaints about our top six into this. That is a separate argument. Calling people out on it is entirely unwarranted, given the complaints being put forward.

 

[Vipers31]

Hagelin is a stud penalty killer. That is something that he has on his predecessor.

Not just that, he's really, really strong on the forecheck. We're already creating a big part of our offense by pressuring other teams' defense into quick losses of possession, and Hagelin fits that perfectly and will help that much more than his predecessor. He won't have to improve on his finishing to be a more valuable asset to any line he's playing on.

 

[SirQuacksALot]

He's a big strong depth player, and if he can pot 10 goals this season he's an upgrade on Jackman. 1.7 mil is too much in my opinion, but it's not like the Ducks don't have cap space. Come playoffs he might see the ice more than Jackman because he can still pot a goal here or there.

Also, can we switch this to confirmed, one year 1.7 mil from rumor?

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

28G '10-11 - 17.3%
18G '12-13 - 18.6%

Those both are actually pretty damned high compared to his other years. 11.2, 12.7, 9.0, 13.6, 8.4.

And Beleskey's 15.2% is over 50% higher than his career average. Yeah, he finally got his shot together. Or, he had a very fortunate year. 5v5 Stewart's shooting percentage is consistently around 11-14%, with the exception of his two down years.

Yup, missed the second year. That was quite a while ago though, and on a Colorado team that didn't really play defense.

What I was responding to was that Stewart was more likely to score 20 than Beleskey next season, and there's not actually any data that backs that statement up. He won't be getting the top line minutes that he's gotten elsewhere to accumulate those shots.

It's not as if that Colorado team was good offensively, either. And he scored at a better rate for a St.Louis team that was better offensively, but hardly elite.

As for the second part, there's plenty of data, you're just willfully choosing to ignore it. The role thing is a legitimate reason, but Stewart was still oddly consistent 5v5 in St.Louis despite moving up and down the lineup, so as long as he gets some PP time(which almost certainly will happen), he has a good chance. And as much as I believe in Beleskey, there are legitimate reasons to believe he won't repeat his success from this past season.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Not just that, he's really, really strong on the forecheck. We're already creating a big part of our offense by pressuring other teams' defense into quick losses of possession, and Hagelin fits that perfectly and will help that much more than his predecessor. He won't have to improve on his finishing to be a more valuable asset to any line he's playing on.

He's a better forechecker than Beleskey, and while he isn't at phyiscal, IMO he's a better fit for that line. I think Stewart will replace what we would have gotten from Beleskey this season production-wise, but if they were looked at for the same role, Beleskey would have gotten a huge nod. However, I think Hagelin will take Beleskey's spot in the lineup, and while he probably won't score as much, I think that line could be more effective overall. Kind of the same thing with Stewart, where I think he'll be a much better fit on that third/fourth line than Etem or Palmieri ever would have been.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

He's a big strong depth player, and if he can pot 10 goals this season he's an upgrade on Jackman. 1.7 mil is too much in my opinion, but it's not like the Ducks don't have cap space. Come playoffs he might see the ice more than Jackman because he can still pot a goal here or there.

Also, can we switch this to confirmed, one year 1.7 mil from rumor?

You're joking right? It's a 1 year deal.

 

[Ducks DVM]

And Beleskey's 15.2% is over 50% higher than his career average. Yeah, he finally got his shot together. Or, he had a very fortunate year. 5v5 Stewart's shooting percentage is consistently around 11-14%, with the exception of his two down years.



It's not as if that Colorado team was good offensively, either. And he scored at a better rate for a St.Louis team that was better offensively, but hardly elite.

As for the second part, there's plenty of data, you're just willfully choosing to ignore it. The role thing is a legitimate reason, but Stewart was still oddly consistent 5v5 in St.Louis despite moving up and down the lineup, so as long as he gets some PP time(which almost certainly will happen), he has a good chance. And as much as I believe in Beleskey, there are legitimate reasons to believe he won't repeat his success from this past season.

I'm willfully ignoring nothing, I'm critically evaluating data and disagreeing with you. Im assessing the fact that he's not going to be getting top line minutes, that scorers typically hit their goal scoring peaks exactly when he did then decline at his age, that he isn't good at playing >70 games, and that theres no reason to expect him to be shooting 5-6% over his median shooting %. He hasn't been able to actually get back to 20 goals with three different teams now. That's a hard fact. You can say he has potential. You can't say he's a better lock.

What are the reasons to think Beleskey can't shoot at 12%? He should be getting better minutes and playing with a better center. His shots were finally being aimed as opposed to unloaded. There's no reason to expect that to regress all the way back down to his previous average.

Edit - and the Colorado team where he hit 28 in the entire season with them was 6th in goals/game.

 

[duxfan1101]

Watching his highlights this past season and it looks like he's got some serious wheels for a big guy, plenty of breakaways. Pretty much all his goals were breakaways, tips, or banging in pucks on rebounds. Doesn't score the prettiest goals but he gets it done.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I'm willfully ignoring nothing, I'm critically evaluating data and disagreeing with you. Im assessing the fact that he's not going to be getting top line minutes, that scorers typically hit their goal scoring peaks exactly when he did then decline at his age, that he isn't good at playing >70 games, and that theres no reason to expect him to be shooting 5-6% over his median shooting %. He hasn't been able to actually get back to 20 goals with three different teams now. That's a hard fact. You can say he has potential. You can't say he's a better lock.

What are the reasons to think Beleskey can't shoot at 12%? He should be getting better minutes and playing with a better center. His shots were finally being aimed as opposed to unloaded. There's no reason to expect that to regress all the way back down to his previous average.

Stewart is actually pretty good at playing 70 games, certainly better than Beleskey. And yes, you're definitely willfully ignoring a few things. One is that Stewart never received top line minutes, but mainly about Beleskey. You argue that Chris Stewart's shooting percentages are ridiculous and Beleskey's one year is normal, not really consistent. You say it's reasonable Beleskey shoot 12% despite a career average lower yet Stewart won't do the same despite a career average above that mark. You argue it's a fact that Stewart hasn't hit 20 goals in sometime yet Beleskey hit it once in his career. I mean, you're not even really off the mark, but all these arguments go both ways.

Personally, I don't think either will hit 20 next year, or at least I don't think Beleskey would have if he stayed. But, given his track record, yes, I do think Stewart would have the better chance at it. I do think Beleskey got a bit lucky last year, and he is a much bigger injury concern than Stewart.

EDIT-The bolded is also an especially incredible argument. Stewart is all of 7 months older than Beleskey. You're really saying that one has hit his peak and is on the decline while the other has just now broken out?

 

[giant870]

Players lost:
Beleskey, Palmieri, Bueachemin, & Etem- totaled 52 goals, 42 assists, 94 points last year.

Players added:
Hagelin, Horcoff, Stewart, Bieksa- totaled 46 goals, 68 assists, 114 points last year.

Loss of 6 total goals, addition of 26 more assists.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Edit - and the Colorado team where he hit 28 in the entire season with them was 6th in goals/game.

And the Colorado team he scored 13 in 36 for was 18th in goals per game.

 

[SirQuacksALot]

You're joking right? It's a 1 year deal.

No, I'd prefer a little lower for a guy who will most likely live on the fourth line.