Friedman: Chicago working on a Duncan Keith trade to a Pacific Northwest or Western Canada team

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Just because you don't understand something doesn't make the stats worthless on a micro level.

I understand them just fine. I know what they're trying to do. It doesn't work because you can't isolate a single player from the other 5 guys on the ice.

They're worthless because every skater on the ice's play affects the other 4 and the goalie's performance. They're all intertwined and cannot be separated from the others.

You might be able to get some quantification of chemistry at the pairing and line level but I think they're entertainment only past the team level.

 

[coopooter]

Comparing Duncan Keith to Andrew Ference? That’s the argument you want to go with here? I agree they need more talented players, but they also need some leaders and proven winners. As much as some Oiler fans may not like it, it sounds like Holland is interested in acquiring Keith. We’ll see what happens.

Well we wouldn’t exactly be acquiring prime Keith here.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Well we wouldn’t exactly be acquiring prime Keith here.

No, certainly not, and that second year might be the biggest drawback. It does sound like Edmonton is interested though. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[coopooter]

No, certainly not, and that second year might be the biggest drawback. It does sound like Edmonton is interested though. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Looks like they are interested at a certain price. More like what would Keith get as a UFA if he was one right now and not at the cap hell version that Hawks are offering

 

[PensandCaps]

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

Anything more than a 7th is too much from the oilers POV. Keith is terrible.

 

[North Cole]

not as mad as if i had been an oilers fan the last 20 years.

Why would you be mad to be an Oilers fan? Lol, where's this random hostility coming from? Just a simple question.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Keith overpaid by at least $6M over the next two seasons, therefore Chicago would either need to add a first rounder type asset to move him or retain 50% for future considerations(ex. 6th round pick if Oilers win the cup)

 

[dj Mahoney]

Keith overpaid by at least $6M over the next two seasons, therefore Chicago would either need to add a first rounder type asset to move him or retain 50% for future considerations(ex. 6th round pick if Oilers win the cup)

If Oilers win the CUP ? When in 20 yrs?

 

[Rubi]

Is 2 years of Keith more valuable than 1 year of Giordano? The consensus says that Seattle will draft Gio. Why would they want both of those players on their team. I don't see it myself. Keith won't end up in Seattle. He'll most likely remain in Chicago because Edmonton doesn't want another bad contract on the books and neither does Calgary and Vancouver has already said they flat out don't want him. Chicago has already made it clear that they won't eat part of his contract or take an equally bad contract in return.
I call no deal.

 

[Shane Diesel]

I understand them just fine. I know what they're trying to do. It doesn't work because you can't isolate a single player from the other 5 guys on the ice.

They're worthless because every skater on the ice's play affects the other 4 and the goalie's performance. They're all intertwined and cannot be separated from the others.

You might be able to get some quantification of chemistry at the pairing and line level but I think they're entertainment only past the team level.

Your response indicates that you most certainly don't understand them.

 

[Joe Scaduto]

The deal will happen .3 way deal involving Blackhawks Oilers Krakens .Krakens are going to take on some of Keith's contract for a draft pick.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Your response indicates that you most certainly don't understand them.

No I do, I just choose to dismiss them as ridiculous noise.

 

[LTIR]

So Keith's value is between a buyout+sign with EDM for cheap and Ethan Bear as per all the rumors.

There is no point fighting here..let's just agree to disagree and hope your GM doesn't get owned.

At the end both fan bases will get over this and move.. worst case for CHI is Keith bought out and for Oilers fans is losing Samorukov or Bear.

We will complain for a bit and then move on.

 

[razor ray]

42 pages discussing a 37 year old defenseman's potential trade.....

Mind = Blown

 

[North]

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

Every single player you mentioned is too far.

Chicago doesn’t have any real leverage here.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Chicago really needs to add here IMO. Oilers are not exactly swimming in cap space… and have a lot of depth to work on

 

[hawksfan1979]

I dunno, this situation seems pretty cut and dried to me.

To the people saying the Oilers have the leverage here.....yes they do, but it's not like the Hawks are in a "make a deal at all costs" type of mode. Sure, they want to try and facilitate a deal for one of the most beloved players in franchise history, but if the deal doesn't make sense (and trading for James Neal FIRMLY falls in the camp of "doesn't make sense"), they're not going to do it. Keith has been in the game long enough to know it's just business and if a deal can't be made, he'll be back on the team next year and everybody will go from there.

 

[landfill]

I think the oilers will get Keith and he will be a great presence to have during the playoffs.


I think he will go to Edmonton over Seattle so he can have a chance at the cup again

 

[Kaners PPGs]

I dunno, this situation seems pretty cut and dried to me.

To the people saying the Oilers have the leverage here.....yes they do, but it's not like the Hawks are in a "make a deal at all costs" type of mode. Sure, they want to try and facilitate a deal for one of the most beloved players in franchise history, but if the deal doesn't make sense (and trading for James Neal FIRMLY falls in the camp of "doesn't make sense"), they're not going to do it. Keith has been in the game long enough to know it's just business and if a deal can't be made, he'll be back on the team next year and everybody will go from there.

Very well said.

 

[flying v 604]

Jones is an NHL player already. It's where he fits in the lineup. He'll slot higher on CHI than he did in Edmonton which could give him an opportunity to shine.

Benson has been fine, and may play 4th/3rd line this year. He'll likely never be top 6. That's fine. Bottom six guy with skill.

It's important to watch and understand prospects you plan to debate about.

Benson was drafted for his skill and to say a failed guy with skill can just slide into a bottom-six role is wrong. Benson is a less skilled version of Gaudette, who was completely useless in a bottom-six role.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Whether blackhawk fans agree or not, Holland has the upper hand here.
If Bowman wants Jones so they can try to entice his older brother on joining, then you need to do a whole lot more than just offer Keith and that hefty contract of his. McLeod? Bear? Any other prospect like those young chips is absolutely off the table.
Its that simple. Also don't want Keith to begin with as an Oiler fan.

If Keith were a UFA he would get $1mill on 1 year deals, and even then most Oiler fans would still be on the fence about him.

Full cap hit is hilarious. Won't happen unless we send our dumps back.


Holland isn't Chiarelli.

 

[SwedishFire]

Its been on the wall for a week now, and its still in process??
If Chicago doesnt eantvit, just leave it then! This shows that Holland really wants Kieth.
My take; Chicago wants to get out with cap. So no bad contract or retaining back (this last part is the hang up I guess). And no picks.
Meanwhile Oilers want to send a contract back, and not sending out a good prospect (wich Chicago wants). Or picks.
I guess Chicago hold on to get Benson, Marody, Broberg or Bouchard. And Holland rightfully says no.
So my purpose is the obvious one
Kieth for Koskinen and Caleb Jones, straight up. ( If Chicago doenst want Jones, they can pick another D except Bouchard or Broberg - Broberg comes eith an add from Chicago).
Its good for Chicago. They get a good D prospect, who is also tradeable if he is not in their flavour. And a goalie with high cap (but less) for one year, that needs to fix technic issues to get a good glove.
Holland gets his vet for a high pricetag for his young group to see and learn, Chicago gets less cap and a prospect.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Its been on the wall for a week now, and its still in process??
If Chicago doesnt eantvit, just leave it then! This shows that Holland really wants Kieth.
My take; Chicago wants to get out with cap. So no bad contract or retaining back (this last part is the hang up I guess). And no picks.
Meanwhile Oilers want to send a contract back, and not sending out a good prospect (wich Chicago wants). Or picks.
I guess Chicago hold on to get Benson, Marody, Broberg or Bouchard. And Holland rightfully says no.
So my purpose is the obvious one
Kieth for Koskinen and Caleb Jones, straight up. ( If Chicago doenst want Jones, they can pick another D except Bouchard or Broberg - Broberg comes eith an add from Chicago).
Its good for Chicago. They get a good D prospect, who is also tradeable if he is not in their flavour. And a goalie with high cap (but less) for one year, that needs to fix technic issues to get a good glove.
Holland gets his vet for a high pricetag for his young group to see and learn, Chicago gets less cap and a prospect.

Pass.

Keith for Neal. But TBH I would rather buyout Neal and use the savings on a younger LHD.


Keith isn't what we need. No sense in us using $5.5AAV x 2 on him. Would rather keep Jones

 

[soothsayer]

There's no deal here unless a third team steps in and takes on a bunch of Keith's salary.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Kieth for Koskinen and Caleb Jones, straight up. ( If Chicago doenst want Jones, they can pick another D except Bouchard or Broberg - Broberg comes eith an add from Chicago).
.

This is reasonable but I would think Edmonton would prefer 50% of Keith retained for 2 seasons rather than Chicago taking the last year of Koskinen. The beat writer for Edmonton in the Athletic suggested getting Arizona involved in taking 1/2 of Edmonton’s cap hit on Keith for a 2nd round pick. That would get Keith’s hit for Edmonton down to 1.3-1.4. I thought that was pretty interesting.