Friedman: Chicago working on a Duncan Keith trade to a Pacific Northwest or Western Canada team

[StreetHawk]

If I was Chicago, I'd likely lean more to taking Koskinen and buying him out than retaining on Keith to finalize a trade. I saves them $4 mill per against the cap if they bought him out vs keeping Keith.

I don't do the deal to take back Neal.

But, I doubt Edm wants the full burden of Keith's final year at the full $5.5 mill cap hit.

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

...


If you're Seattle and Edmonton and know that you are the only teams he is willing to go to, then you hold all the leverage. It doesnt matter how good Keith actually is. Edmonton cant just add cap without cap going out, so the expectation on their side is that chicago takes cap back. If they dont want to do that, Edmonon is under no obligation to trade for him. Keith can decide how he wants to proceed from there.

Exactly. We're doing them a favor by freeing up cap space and an expansion spot. That ask, for McLeod or Bear, if true, is an insult and a joke

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

That's kind of the point. If they dont want to take back a bad contract or retain salary then Edmonton hangs up the phone. Keep him and buy him out, edmonton doesnt need to do chicago any favours.



Chicago would need to take back a contract like Neal's for the cap to work. From edmontons perspective Keith at 3.25 would be pretty equal. They dont have to retain on top of that but I imagine edmonton would add assets for them to do it.



Just because Keith can play in the top 4 doesnt mean he has value. The player and the contract are two completely different things. I agree tha Keith can play and has value but in a cap world, it's not the simple. If Edmonton is going to trade for Keith, cap has to go back the other way. If Chicago thinks Edmonton is going to take on 2 years at 5.5 cap hit without cap going back then yeah they arent getting any value for him.

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

 

[krutovsdonut]

watching two teams i hate bicker about a player i have an on ice grievance against is really entertaining.

as a canuck fan it is win win

either oilers get him and mess up their cap further, or hawks keep him, and he promptlu takes the hossa/seabrook ltir escape route and they have an absurd ltir headache to manage.

good stuff.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Objectively false.

There's nothing objective about it. It's pretty subjective. This isn't baseball. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team game. Hockey is a team sport through and through. If one guy on the ice messes up, everyone looks bad.

The closer to the individual level you get, the more useless and convoluted the advanced metrics become. They're useful on a macro level but useless on a micro level.

 

[Jumptheshark]

who wants to put up part 2? or should we let this die as we have no more information

 

[McAsuno]

Whether blackhawk fans agree or not, Holland has the upper hand here.
If Bowman wants Jones so they can try to entice his older brother on joining, then you need to do a whole lot more than just offer Keith and that hefty contract of his. McLeod? Bear? Any other prospect like those young chips is absolutely off the table.
Its that simple. Also don't want Keith to begin with as an Oiler fan.

 

[McDoused]

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

I think the original deal from the Oilers side is something like James Neal and Caleb Jones for Duncan Keith. If Chicago is willing to retain on top of taking cap back the Oilers might be willing to send back Samorukov.

Why would Edmonton send Chicago Samorukov to essentially pay Keith 3.25M? They could just sign a UFA for that price and keep their asset.

 

[McDoused]

There's nothing objective about it. It's pretty subjective. This isn't baseball. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team game. Hockey is a team sport through and through. If one guy on the ice messes up, everyone looks bad.

The closer to the individual level you get, the more useless and convoluted the advanced metrics become. They're useful on a macro level but useless on a micro level.

As an Oilers fan, I agree that those stats are very misleading but what it does show is that Keith is no longer capable of playing top pairing minutes with his current team. Their is no reason to think he couldn't play 2nd pairing with a different coach and system. Keith is an aggressive defender and would be a lot more effective in another situation. Stats dont tell the whole story.

 

[North Cole]

watching two teams i hate bicker about a player i have an on ice grievance against is really entertaining.

as a canuck fan it is win win

either oilers get him and mess up their cap further, or hawks keep him, and he promptlu takes the hossa/seabrook ltir escape route and they have an absurd ltir headache to manage.

good stuff.

Would you be mad if Benning traded for him?

 

[Pucklington]

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

Jones is an NHL player already. It's where he fits in the lineup. He'll slot higher on CHI than he did in Edmonton which could give him an opportunity to shine.

Benson has been fine, and may play 4th/3rd line this year. He'll likely never be top 6. That's fine. Bottom six guy with skill.

It's important to watch and understand prospects you plan to debate about.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Jones is an NHL player already. It's where he fits in the lineup. He'll slot higher on CHI than he did in Edmonton which could give him an opportunity to shine.

Benson has been fine, and may play 4th/3rd line this year. He'll likely never be top 6. That's fine. Bottom six guy with skill.

It's important to watch and understand prospects you plan to debate about.

Jones wouldn't make the Hawks D even without Keith as it currently stands.

I know defensemen take longer sometimes, but I'd view him about the same as Koekkoek(who was an Oiler last year) in that he's a 3rd pairing guy or depth D at best and the Hawks have plenty of players at least that good with more upside.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Whether blackhawk fans agree or not, Holland has the upper hand here.
If Bowman wants Jones so they can try to entice his older brother on joining, then you need to do a whole lot more than just offer Keith and that hefty contract of his. McLeod? Bear? Any other prospect like those young chips is absolutely off the table.
Its that simple. Also don't want Keith to begin with as an Oiler fan.

Heres the thing you are forgetting though. Keith is a proven winner, and wouldn’t Holland love to add a guy like that to the locker room? You’re telling me that wouldn’t help McDavid and the rest of the team? This is a team that just got swept in round 1. They need some leaders and proven winners.

 

[McAsuno]

Heres the thing you are forgetting though. Keith is a proven winner, and wouldn’t Holland love to add a guy like that to the locker room? You’re telling me that wouldn’t help McDavid and the rest of the team? This is a team that just got swept in round 1. They need some leaders and proven winners.

That leaders and proven winners is a bunch of nonsense that lead the Oilers to believe signing and giving the C to someone like Ference was an answer. The Oilers are in more need of talented players that can put pucks in the net. And if they want a guy who's a proven winner, there's more options in free agency rather than being stuck with Keith's gross contract.

 

[Mr Positive]

If I was Chicago, I'd likely lean more to taking Koskinen and buying him out than retaining on Keith to finalize a trade. I saves them $4 mill per against the cap if they bought him out vs keeping Keith.

I don't do the deal to take back Neal.

But, I doubt Edm wants the full burden of Keith's final year at the full $5.5 mill cap hit.

The biggest risk for the Oilers and Keith is the 2022-23 season. Maybe some Oiler fans are willing to discuss a Koskinen trade for Keith but I hope our GM is more forward thinking than that. Koskinen is only 1 year. It sets up a nightmare for the following season when the Oilers need to re sign a bunch of players, and Keith's game might take a serious downgrade

 

[Langdon Alger]

That leaders and proven winners is a bunch of nonsense that lead the Oilers to believe signing and giving the C to someone like Ference was an answer. The Oilers are in more need of talented players that can put pucks in the net. And if they want a guy who's a proven winner, there's more options in free agency rather than being stuck with Keith's gross contract.

Comparing Duncan Keith to Andrew Ference? That’s the argument you want to go with here? I agree they need more talented players, but they also need some leaders and proven winners. As much as some Oiler fans may not like it, it sounds like Holland is interested in acquiring Keith. We’ll see what happens.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Would you be mad if Benning traded for him?

not as mad as if i had been an oilers fan the last 20 years.

 

[Beerfish]

If Samurokov is any part of this deal Holland should be tossed off the nearest cliff.

 

[McBooya42]

Explain to me why Chicago makes this deal. What’s in it for them if they trade Keith for Neal? I understand the Oilers have to send money back. Koskinen might be more appealing to Chicago though. He has one year left on his deal, Neal has two. Edmonton likely still adds something in this deal though.

Kosiken/Neal
Roster player/prospect/pick

it won’t require a huge add on the Oilers side, but I think they have to add something.

Not at all. Holland doesn't have to add a thing. Keith wants to come here or Seattle (reasonable assumption). Seattle will have better D to choose from. Edmonton will too. Chicago needs a win on this desperately with everything else going on. The last thing they need or want is to tarnish what Keith (for sure a future HOF player that will probably have his jersey # in the rafters) has done for the organization, by not doing a solid for him.
Doesn't mean Holland has to play nice. Now maybe Bowman needs to look at getting another team involved to pick up the financial difference with a pick? It sure as hell isn't coming from Edmonton.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Not at all. Holland doesn't have to add a thing. Keith wants to come here or Seattle (reasonable assumption). Seattle will have better D to choose from. Edmonton will too. Chicago needs a win on this desperately with everything else going on. The last thing they need or want is to tarnish what Keith (for sure a future HOF player that will probably have his jersey # in the rafters) has done for the organization, by not doing a solid for him.
Doesn't mean Holland has to play nice. Now maybe Bowman needs to look at getting another team involved to pick up the financial difference with a pick? It sure as hell isn't coming from Edmonton.

You truly believe Chicago will do a one for one swap of Keith for James Neal? You honestly think that?

 

[McBooya42]

We understand that, where the major disagreement is, is about what goes back to the Hawks in return for taking back cap. Jones, Benson or both ain't gonna cut it. Those guys are failed prospects and nothing more than AHL fodder.

I think Bear is too far but Samorukov/McLeod/Lavoie aren't.

Well it sure isn't the freaking first time your wrong in this thread. Why stop now? You're out to lunch if you think you're getting any of those guys - especially Samorukov.

 

[McBooya42]

You truly believe Chicago will do a one for one swap of Keith for James Neal? You honestly think that?

It doesn't matter what I think. What I KNOW is that Holland has apparently given a take it or leave it deal, and I'm guessing it's something Bowman doesn't like. Holland has ALL the cards in this particular game.

 

[McAsuno]

Comparing Duncan Keith to Andrew Ference? That’s the argument you want to go with here? I agree they need more talented players, but they also need some leaders and proven winners. As much as some Oiler fans may not like it, it sounds like Holland is interested in acquiring Keith. We’ll see what happens.

As players? Of course not. Keith will always be a better player. But in terms of proven veterans that know how to win, they both fit that criteria.
Like I said, the Oilers are more in need of players that can score. The issues of the sweep wasn't because of a lack of a veteran that knows how to win, but because the team lacked literally any scoring or speed in the rest of the lineup against the jets combined with Hellebuyck playing like an actual Vezina winner.
Right now, it looks like its in Bowman's boat on what he wants to do. Holland has the upper hand here, and it won't hurt the Oilers in any way if they don't trade for a 38 year old dman.

 

[KCC]

Whether blackhawk fans agree or not, Holland has the upper hand here.
If Bowman wants Jones so they can try to entice his older brother on joining, then you need to do a whole lot more than just offer Keith and that hefty contract of his. McLeod? Bear? Any other prospect like those young chips is absolutely off the table.
Its that simple. Also don't want Keith to begin with as an Oiler fan.

I honestly think it's a waste of money. He's long past his prime and IDC how much of "a vet" he is. He's awful. Give his spot to a young player as he's not going to make much (if any) of a difference. I would say try and entice Barrie although I know he's probably asking a ton. Still though, he clearly gelled well with McDavid and Draisaitl and he was deadly on the PP. Something EDM has needed for a long time. Going from Barrie to a 37 year old Keith would be all kinds of stupid. lol

 

[Shane Diesel]

There's nothing objective about it. It's pretty subjective. This isn't baseball. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team game. Hockey is a team sport through and through. If one guy on the ice messes up, everyone looks bad.

The closer to the individual level you get, the more useless and convoluted the advanced metrics become. They're useful on a macro level but useless on a micro level.

Just because you don't understand something doesn't make the stats worthless on a micro level.