Player Discussion Charlie Coyle #1 center predictions

[Aussie Bruin]

Agreed. He's taking also taking tougher draws this year than last year......and he's holding his own.

Like I said before, statistically, the difference between him and Bergeron is about 1 faceoff win per game.

Your math isn't quite right here. The top guys take about 20 draws a game. Coyle at 50% wins 10 of those, Bergeron lands 12. So roughly 2 more per game. Which still doesn't sound like a lot, but having 10% more starting possession over the course of a season can have quite a big impact. That said, Bergeron was elite of the elite in this regard, and I always think that as long as you're tracking at 50% or above, you're doing just fine. Coyle is hitting that mark, so no major issues there.

The more important aspect I think is the ability to win those clutch draws in high pressure/high need situations. The ones where you need to win the puck late in a game to try and equalize or protect a lead, or to get first use on a critical PP. Especially in playoffs. Bergy always prided himself on winning a lot of those, and it was one of the signs that he was just fading a bit last year that he was starting to lose a few more of those key faceoffs. It was something he himself spoke of as being frustrating, even though his raw numbers never dipped.

Can Coyle be trusted and deemed reliable in those same situations? The evidence so far is pretty patchy. As usual, the postseason will be the ultimate and determining test. Hopefully Charlie can step up in that regard. Don't think it's a big deal, but it does matter.

 

[BMC]

Charlie is certainly making me eat crow, I honestly didn't believe he could do well in the top 6 for any length of time.

It tastes really good I must say

 

[Son of Donegal]

Your math isn't quite right here. The top guys take about 20 draws a game. Coyle at 50% wins 10 of those, Bergeron lands 12. So roughly 2 more per game. Which still doesn't sound like a lot, but having 10% more starting possession over the course of a season can have quite a big impact. That said, Bergeron was elite of the elite in this regard, and I always think that as long as you're tracking at 50% or above, you're doing just fine. Coyle is hitting that mark, so no major issues there.

The more important aspect I think is the ability to win those clutch draws in high pressure/high need situations. The ones where you need to win the puck late in a game to try and equalize or protect a lead, or to get first use on a critical PP. Especially in playoffs. Bergy always prided himself on winning a lot of those, and it was one of the signs that he was just fading a bit last year that he was starting to lose a few more of those key faceoffs. It was something he himself spoke of as being frustrating, even though his raw numbers never dipped.

Can Coyle be trusted and deemed reliable in those same situations? The evidence so far is pretty patchy. As usual, the postseason will be the ultimate and determining test. Hopefully Charlie can step up in that regard. Don't think it's a big deal, but it does matter.

Anything over 50% is fine for FO. It's not the best aspect of his game, but he doesn't hurt the Bruins when he is at the dot. It's really important to note that Coyle starts nearly 70% of his shifts in the D zone. This is the most of any Bs forward aside from the 4th line. I don't think there are many top 6 C in the league getting put in this position. He is having a Selke level season by any metric.

 

[mikelvl]

Super 16: Jets, Canucks climb to top; Kraken, Devils enter power rankings | NHL.com

Big movement among teams with All-Star Fan Vote coming to close

www.nhl.com

Time for some Coyle love. Charlie has stepped up and exceeded expectations this year. Proof that local guys can thrive in Boston.

"It's Charlie Coyle. Though I wish Bruins goalies Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman could make the All-Star Game as a package deal, both for the hugs and sheer entertainment, I think the season that Coyle is having is going under the radar. His numbers aren't eye-popping, but his impact is tremendous. Coyle has 30 points (14 goals, 16 assists) in 40 games while playing 17:52 per game, including 2:51 per game short-handed, exactly the way the Bruins hoped since they acquired him in a trade with the Minnesota Wild on Feb. 20, 2019. I'm well-aware that Coyle isn't going to make the team. He doesn't have the numbers or the name, but he deserves it, nonetheless." -- Amalie Benjamin, staff writer

 

[Kalus]

I don’t know about all this eating crow talk. Coyle has been performing this season in line with expectations for what he has been since he got to Boston: a high character good 3C who has 2C physical tools that can play like a 2C for short periods of time before falling back to his 3C ways.

His regular and advanced stats this season are in line with career anverages except for his goals rate, but that is driven by an unsustainable 17% shooting percentage and higher shot volume. His shooting percentage will fall back to his career avg of around 11% and he will probably finish the year around 20 goals.

I am definitely pleased that he is playing well at his age, but I think it is within expectations.

 

[Son of Donegal]

I don’t know about all this eating crow talk. Coyle has been performing this season in line with expectations for what he has been since he got to Boston: a high character good 3C who has 2C physical tools that can play like a 2C for short periods of time before falling back to his 3C ways.

His regular and advanced stats this season are in line with career anverages except for his goals rate, but that is driven by an unsustainable 17% shooting percentage and higher shot volume. His shooting percentage will fall back to his career avg of around 11% and he will probably finish the year around 20 goals.

I am definitely pleased that he is playing well at his age, but I think it is within expectations.

I expect to see some regression, but not as much as this. Barring a trade for a C, his utilization as a top 2C is going to remain pretty constant. So even if his shooting % regresses, I doubt his shot volume moves all that much. I truly think he is good for at least another 12-13 goals. For him to land at 20g....that means he only has 6 goals left in him the rest of the way and I just don't see that happening.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Charlie is certainly making me eat crow, I honestly didn't believe he could do well in the top 6 for any length of time.

It tastes really good I must say

Pass the crow this way when your done, I'll need some.
Thanks.

 

[NDiesel]

I don’t know about all this eating crow talk. Coyle has been performing this season in line with expectations for what he has been since he got to Boston: a high character good 3C who has 2C physical tools that can play like a 2C for short periods of time before falling back to his 3C ways.

His regular and advanced stats this season are in line with career anverages except for his goals rate, but that is driven by an unsustainable 17% shooting percentage and higher shot volume. His shooting percentage will fall back to his career avg of around 11% and he will probably finish the year around 20 goals.

I am definitely pleased that he is playing well at his age, but I think it is within expectations.

At his current pace he would set career totals, all while being on the 2nd PP....here's the thing. He's pacing at 61 points right now with only 8.2 of those 61 on the PP.

Obviously these numbers aren't concrete, but let's assume everything goes right, he continues the pace and plays 82 games, he would have 53 ES points...that would have him 30th in the league in points and 15th among centers last year. I'm not sure how that is within expectations looking at the poll results, with the extra caveat that he is playing against better quality defenders by being in the top 6.

Is it farfetched to say he'd have 70-80 pts if he was on our first PP?

 

[Kalus]

At his current pace he would set career totals, all while being on the 2nd PP....here's the thing. He's pacing at 61 points right now with only 8.2 of those 61 on the PP.

Obviously these numbers aren't concrete, but let's assume everything goes right, he continues the pace and plays 82 games, he would have 53 ES points...that would have him 30th in the league in points and 15th among centers last year. I'm not sure how that is within expectations looking at the poll results, with the extra caveat that he is playing against better quality defenders by being in the top 6.

Is it farfetched to say he'd have 70-80 pts if he was on our first PP?

He has been racking up the secondary assists this year and has a wholly unsustainable 17% shooting percentage. It highly unlikely he keeps this pace up the rest of the way.

Most likely scenario is he ends up with 20 goals and 30 assists. Maybe 22 or 23 goals at best. About what you’d expect for a 3C playing 2C minutes.

 

[BMC]

Pass the crow this way when your done, I'll need some.
Thanks.

No problem. Here you go

 

[goldnblack]

 

[PhilKesselFatCamp]

He has been racking up the secondary assists this year and has a wholly unsustainable 17% shooting percentage. It highly unlikely he keeps this pace up the rest of the way.

Most likely scenario is he ends up with 20 goals and 30 assists. Maybe 22 or 23 goals at best. About what you’d expect for a 3C playing 2C minutes.

17% is not "wholly unsustainable."

Is it out of line with his career norm? Yes. But outlier seasons do exist, on both end of the bell curve.

He may just be having a hot year.

edit: shooting percent as a stat isn't useful for predicative value in season. It's better used as part of larger career evaluation.

 

[goldnblack]

My dudes:


Lindholm 30 pts
Hertl 32 pts
Bedard 33 pts
Tavares 33 pts
Coyle 36 pts
Malkin 37 pts
Kadri 37 pts
Suzuki 38 pts
Kopitar 39 pts

 

[neelynugs]

@PlayMakers was bang on. i didn't see it coming at all. keep it going, chuck.

 

[NDiesel]

My dudes:


Lindholm 30 pts
Hertl 32 pts
Bedard 33 pts
Tavares 33 pts
Coyle 36 pts
Malkin 37 pts
Kadri 37 pts
Suzuki 38 pts
Kopitar 39 pts

On pace to have more points than both Krech and Bergeron did last year too...

 

[GordonHowe]

Charlie Coyle’s ascension as Bruins’ top-line center has been a game-changer

With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out of the equation, the Bruins have benefitted from Charlie Coyle's strong play this season.

www.boston.com

 

[quietbruinfan]

I think many of you are a little too optimistic in your praise for and expectations of Coyle's play. With a lot guaranteed top six minutes, he will most likely produce career highs in goals and assists, but a regression to career norms is inevitable at some point soon. Going on age 32, Coyle is a known quantity ,who is unlikely to improve. He did improve considerably last year, but I really think he is at his ceiling.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I think many of you are a little too optimistic in your praise for and expectations of Coyle's play. With a lot guaranteed top six minutes, he will most likely produce career highs in goals and assists, but a regression to career norms is inevitable at some point soon. Going on age 32, Coyle is a known quantity ,who is unlikely to improve. He did improve considerably last year, but I really think he is at his ceiling.

Ok

 

[mjhfb]

The knock on Coyle was never his skill, it was his consistency. We've all seen him make highlight reel plays and said "wow, why can't he do that more often...", but also stretches of games where the posts were filled with "where has Coyle been?...".
Give him credit, he's stepped up and been much more consistent this year.

 

[goldnblack]

I'm not sure how many of you remember what hot mustard sauce for mcnuggets used to taste like MANY years ago. It's nothing like today's sauce, which you could say is weak sauce. That's what this thread is right now. Weak sauce.

Coyle (at age 27) originally came to the Bruins team to BE a 3rd line C. We had organizational depth, he never had to be more (over any appreciable stretch). He never had to be a leader, he could settle in nicely and thrive in that spot. And he did! Two of those years he did so on a bad leg. He also got to shadow one of the best 2 way players to ever play the game.

This is the first year he's had the entire lane open to take the reigns as a top 6 forward and a leader, and he's crushing both. And those of us who believe in the player aren't even a little surprised. Neither are guys like Razor and Jaffe who knows their Bruins hockey (probably a bit better than you do).

So keep dipping your nuggets in the weak sauce my friends. The rest us of know what Charlie is about.

 

[NDiesel]

Forget about the breakout offensive season, the one notable upgrade of going from Krejci/Bergy to Coyle is that this dude just doesn't miss games like the other two did (obviously their age playing a big factor).

From the start of his first season here until now this man has played 331 out of 336 regular season games, absolute insanity to me. Coyle is HIM

 

[Dr Hook]

Haha at the poll results. Less than 25% of us said he would okay in the role. So glad the majority was wrong because he is being what the Bruins needed him to be.

 

[DKH]

I think many of you are a little too optimistic in your praise for and expectations of Coyle's play. With a lot guaranteed top six minutes, he will most likely produce career highs in goals and assists, but a regression to career norms is inevitable at some point soon. Going on age 32, Coyle is a known quantity ,who is unlikely to improve. He did improve considerably last year, but I really think he is at his ceiling.

Agree Coyle will age and regress and eventually retire

 

[JAD]

What I've noticed about Coyle is that he is going to the slot a LOT more this year expecting his wingers or defensemen to get him the puck for a shot, tip or deflection. He is being much more a net front presence from about 12 feet out in towards the net. Years past he would be behind the net or in the corners trying to get the puck, protect the puck and make a pass to someone else. This year he is in the slot expecting to receive a pass for a shot or looking to redirect the puck on net. Which has paid off building his confidence to shoot more.

 

[PB37]

What this thread ( and board ) needs is more @PlayMakers posting in it. I haven't seen him around in awhile.