Series Talk: CDSF: Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes

[Scoresberg]

5 min into the first game of the playoffs and you can already see that they are not going to call half of what they call in the regular season.. probably helps us in the upcoming series.

 

[PredsV82]

5 min into the first game of the playoffs and you can already see that they are not going to call half of what they call in the regular season.. probably helps us in the upcoming series.

Except we are the guys who got Peel fired, so..

 

[drwpreds]

Here is what I’m trying to mentally prepare myself for.

Game 1: loss by 1-2 goals. Enough bright spots for us to convince ourselves there is hope.

Game 2: blowout loss. Everybody argues about why it wasn’t Saros’ fault.

Game 3: 1 goal win. We get excited because Bridgestone magic.

Game 4: OT loss. Game not as close as the score, but we convince ourselves this is the wake up call Josi was talking about in his pressers after Games 1&2

Game 5: 3 goal loss. Preds dominated and broken by the 5th minute of the 2nd period. ILIILI stays positive about the youth.

Even if that exact scenario happens, this has been a very successful season in my book, for numerous reasons that we can all discuss in the offseason.

 

[101st_fan]

This is true. Even with this recent cold streak, Nashville PP is 22.4% with Tolvanen in the lineup. That is top 10 in the NHL.
Our PP is 7.6% without him in lineup.

I don’t see enough deficiencies in his 5x5 play to not play him for what he can do on PP.

What has he done on the PP since the beginning of April? The PP is at 13.6% since his return on April 21st. Tolvanen leads the team in total PP TOI in that span with just one assist to show for it.

Since April 3rd, Tolvanen has one PP point and during that stretch where the PP as a whole and Tolvanen individually did well it was 15 total PP goals (Tolvanen with 11 pts) in the span of 22 games, 26.4% conversion ... 9 of those 15 goals coming against Dallas or Detroit ... 8 of Eeli's 12 PP pts for the regular season coming against Dallas or Detroit (4 pts against each of them, 2 against CBJ, 1 vs CHI, 1 vs FLA). We caught some struggling teams and created the illusion of a working PP.

Therein lie the cracks of the Tolvanen for his PP performance logic. He's been invisible on the PP for the past ten games he's played ... since his return he is a team worst -4 to go with the nearly non-existent PP performance (1 secondary assist in over 24 mins of PP time, 1 ES goal, 1 ES assist) ... and we aren't going up against Detroit or mid season struggle Dallas where the team and Tolvanen had PP success from the end of Feb to the first weekend of April. We had an 11.1 PP% against Carolina this season ... 3 PP goals total against them. Tolvanen was on roster for two of those ... on the ice for none. If the entire basis of the argument to play him is for his PP performance then how well does that performance hold up to scrutiny and looking at the full set of circumstances?

 

[OldFan]

I am confident this would be the lineup, presuming Arvy is healthy, with the exception that Richardson would play in place of Cousins. That's what we saw in the key games at the end, I don't know what would have happened since then to change Hynes' mind on that.

Carolina excellent PP. Richardson excellent PK. That’s enough said.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Carolina excellent PP. Richardson excellent PK. That’s enough said.

Richardson has gotten pretty minimal PK time since he came back from injury and his PK numbers were pretty bad to start the season. He’s historically been a good PK player but not for us yet.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Carolina excellent PP. Richardson excellent PK. That’s enough said.

The Preds have used Richardson on the PK in just 2 of the 5 games he played since he came back. And one of those 2 games was the zany 5-0 game with everybody else sitting. Richardson is 8-15 for 35% on faceoffs since coming back.

I actually like Richardson as a player and thought he was getting a bit of an unfair shake early in the season when our PK was so woeful and people were really down on him. I know he has a better track record in past years and is a better player than that. But it's just strange to me how quickly people are ready to support using him when a) our PK sucked massively when he played on it at the start of the season, b) our team subsequently found other options on the PK that were more successful during his absence, and c) he hasn't even been used as a primary PKer since he came back.

It's kind of a funny contrast relative to Tolvanen's overwhelmingly positive effect on the PP. Do we normally get that supportive of unusual coaching decisions around here? I can't remember seeing it before. Sometimes an unusual coaching decision will pay off, so who knows, but I don't think that should stop any of us who are questioning it from continuing to do so, given just how strong the supporting data is, both statistical and eye test.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This would be somewhat akin for example to the Preds taking Carrier out of the lineup and inserting Gudbranson/Benning in his place, say, because the team feels it needs a more physical veteran PK presence on D. Would we be just as happy to see that?

 

[Predsanddead24]

I doubt it’s Richardson who gets in over Tolvanen anyways. Most likely Cousins with a slight chance for Grimaldi.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

This would be somewhat akin for example to the Preds taking Carrier out of the lineup and inserting Gudbranson/Benning in his place, say, because the team feels it needs a more physical veteran PK presence on D. Would we be just as happy to see that?

Except Carrier hasn't really had a dip in his performance since coming back from injury. As 101 has pointed out, Tolvanen has been struggling on the PP and 5 on 5 for a while.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Except Carrier hasn't really had a dip in his performance since coming back from injury. As 101 has pointed out, Tolvanen has been struggling on the PP and 5 on 5 for a while.

Hence "somewhat akin". Nor have Gudbranson or Benning really failed to live up to expectations thus far to the extent that Richardson has. But it's taking a young player out who was a significant part of the reason we're even in the playoffs, and replacing them with a generic veteran depth player.

 

[Armourboy]

Hence "somewhat akin". Nor have Gudbranson or Benning really failed to live up to expectations thus far to the extent that Richardson has. But it's taking a young player out who was a significant part of the reason we're even in the playoffs, and replacing them with a generic veteran depth player.

Tolvanen hasn't been this player you speak of in a month or two though. Everyone wants to see him play but the numbers lately don't really support the idea that he deserves that spot if the coach decides to go a different direction.

Personally I think he has been playing through something. Hynes is not going to tell anyone that going into the playoffs though because he doesn't want to put a target on the kid.

 

[101st_fan]

Our PP numbers against each team in the division
vs CAR, 3 for 27, 11.1%
vs CHI, 1 for 19, 5.3%, Tolvanen 1g
vs CBJ, 3 for 21, 14.3%, Tolvanen with 1 g, 1a (that assist his only PP point outside of the 2/23-4/3 span)
vs DAL, 5 for 23, 21.7%, Tolvanen with 1g, 3a
vs DET, 7 for 24, 29.2%, Tolvanen with 2g, 2a
vs FLA, 4 for 19, 21.1%, Tolvanen 1g
vs TBL, 5 for 26, 19.2%

The 22 game span from 2/23-4/3 accounted for 15 of 28 PP goals for the team converting at 27.8% while not allowing a shorthanded goal against ... all 6 of Tolvanen's PP goals, 5 of 6 of his PP assists were during that run. 9 of those 15 for the team came against Detroit and a Dallas team that was on a rough stretch winning just 8 of 23 in the same span (with 6 OTLs in pure Stars 2021 fashion) ... Tolvanen scoring 8 pts on those 9 goals. Josi put up 10 PP points in 15 games, Forsberg 7 PP points in 17 games during that stretch. It was a great combination of the right competition at a time when we had 3 healthy players all clicking ... then injuries hit and the PP fell off.

In the 17 games prior to that run, the team scored 9 PP goals with Tolvanen posting no PP points in the eight games he played. Since that run the team has 4 PP goals in 17 games ... Tolvanen with 1 PP assist in his 10 games during that span.

This isn't simply a case of Tolvanen in = PP good, Tolvanen out = PP bad. It's a case of the team struggling for 17 games, excelling for 22 games, then falling off again for another 17 games and Tolvanen, among others, mirroring that special teams performance at the individual level. 10 of Josi's 14 and 7 of Forsberg's 13 PP points were in that same span.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Tolvanen hasn't been this player you speak of in a month or two though. Everyone wants to see him play but the numbers lately don't really support the idea that he deserves that spot if the coach decides to go a different direction.

Personally I think he has been playing through something. Hynes is not going to tell anyone that going into the playoffs though because he doesn't want to put a target on the kid.

Tolvanen has 1g and 2a in the 9 games since he returned. That's not good, and his shooting% is way down from the ~20% he had in his first 31 games. But I challenge anybody to find a player in our top-6 who hasn't had a similar stretch of poor production. Even Forsberg went through a 9 game skid with just 2 pts. Let alone others like Duchene, Arvidsson, and Johansen who have had much worse spells.

I think with the number of bodies we have on hand, there was never any need for Tolvanen to ever "play through something". A slump is what he's playing through. And it just says he hasn't yet "earned" the benefit of the doubt when going through a slump like those other players have. And to me, that's representative of the mindset that our organization should have learned some lessons about during this season.

 

[Armourboy]

Tolvanen has 1g and 2a in the 9 games since he returned. That's not good, and his shooting% is way down from the ~20% he had in his first 31 games. But I challenge anybody to find a player in our top-6 who hasn't had a similar stretch of poor production. Even Forsberg went through a 9 game skid with just 2 pts. Let alone others like Duchene, Arvidsson, and Johansen who have had much worse spells.

I think with the number of bodies we have on hand, there was never any need for Tolvanen to ever "play through something". A slump is what he's playing through. And it just says he hasn't yet "earned" the benefit of the doubt when going through a slump like those other players have. And to me, that's representative of the mindset that our organization should have learned some lessons about during this season.

Well if he was playing through a slump it's seems he did earn that benefit of a doubt for a while then didn't he?

This entire season has been about guys buying in and listening to the coaches. Hynes said they gave him some things to work on. Seems to me if he does that all of this hand wringing was for nothing. Sounds to me like whether Tolvanen plays or not is in Tolvanen's own hands.

 

[101st_fan]

There are 30+ players on the roster at various levels of health, availability, and experience. Hynes has some flexibility in skill sets. We'll soon see how things work out.

 

[Loyal Legion]

What has he done on the PP since the beginning of April? The PP is at 13.6% since his return on April 21st. Tolvanen leads the team in total PP TOI in that span with just one assist to show for it.

Since April 3rd, Tolvanen has one PP point and during that stretch where the PP as a whole and Tolvanen individually did well it was 15 total PP goals (Tolvanen with 11 pts) in the span of 22 games, 26.4% conversion ... 9 of those 15 goals coming against Dallas or Detroit ... 8 of Eeli's 12 PP pts for the regular season coming against Dallas or Detroit (4 pts against each of them, 2 against CBJ, 1 vs CHI, 1 vs FLA). We caught some struggling teams and created the illusion of a working PP.

Therein lie the cracks of the Tolvanen for his PP performance logic. He's been invisible on the PP for the past ten games he's played ... since his return he is a team worst -4 to go with the nearly non-existent PP performance (1 secondary assist in over 24 mins of PP time, 1 ES goal, 1 ES assist) ... and we aren't going up against Detroit or mid season struggle Dallas where the team and Tolvanen had PP success from the end of Feb to the first weekend of April. We had an 11.1 PP% against Carolina this season ... 3 PP goals total against them. Tolvanen was on roster for two of those ... on the ice for none. If the entire basis of the argument to play him is for his PP performance then how well does that performance hold up to scrutiny and looking at the full set of circumstances?

Tolvanen brings an element to the PP that we don’t have without him. Teams can just bunch up Josi at point, Forsberg on the right side, and let Arvidsson whiff on one timers from the left. But they will have to respect Tolvanen, freeing up other options.

Even in Tolvanen’s “slump”, the Preds are 6-2-1 since he came back from injury, so to me should not lose a spot in the lineup at this point.

 

[drwpreds]

Look- it is not the end of the world if Tolvanen isn't in the lineup- I mean, its not like we are talking about Crosby or Mcdavid here.

But I still just don't get why of all the underperforming players we STILL have on this roster, only Tolvanen seems to be being singled out by his coach and GM. And now the fanbase seems to have joined in, going to great lengths to point out every little negative thing.

Has he been producing lately?? Nope. But to me he its not like he is some huge liability out there- and the one game he sits out just could be the game where he would have broken out and scores 2 PP goals. That's why I still want him in there.

Just my 2 cents- but its all a moot point anyway at this point- based on Poile and Hyne's comments I don't think there is any chance whatsoever he is going to be there (for game 1, at least)

 

[101st_fan]

Tolvanen brings an element to the PP that we don’t have without him. Teams can just bunch up Josi at point, Forsberg on the right side, and let Arvidsson whiff on one timers from the left. But they will have to respect Tolvanen, freeing up other options.

Even in Tolvanen’s “slump”, the Preds are 6-2-1 since he came back from injury, so to me should not lose a spot in the lineup at this point.

The theory of him "freeing up other options" worked well against Detroit and Dallas in March. It hasn't worked since the first Saturday in April nor has it worked against any team in the top half of league wide PK%. The PP in March, especially against Detroit and Dallas, was an exception ... not the rule with 9 of 28 total PP goals coming in those eight games, 8 of Tolvanen's 12 PP points. So, pivot to the team record ... ok. The team went 5-3-0 while he was out, 6-2-1 since his return ... pretty much a wash.

Now for the tough question the team faces that people here bypassed to jump on the play Tolvanen because of some now distant PP performance ... with Arvy coming back (again) somebody sits. Cousins with 5 points and +3 since Tolvanen's return? Haula with 6pts and +1 in that span? Kunin with 5 goals and +1? Joey with 6 pts including 2 PP g, -1? Duchene with 4pts? Forsberg with 3pts in 5 games, 2 of those on the PP? Granlund, Jarnkrok, Jeannot all with 5 or more points in that timeframe? Or Tolvanen with 1 ES g, 1 ES a, 1 PP a and -4? Those are ES numbers that both Trenin and Sissons either match or surpass.

 

[Armourboy]

Look- it is not the end of the world if Tolvanen isn't in the lineup- I mean, its not like we are talking about Crosby or Mcdavid here.

But I still just don't get why of all the underperforming players we STILL have on this roster, only Tolvanen seems to be being singled out by his coach and GM. And now the fanbase seems to have joined in, going to great lengths to point out every little negative thing.

Has he been producing lately?? Nope. But to me he its not like he is some huge liability out there- and the one game he sits out just could be the game where he would have broken out and scores 2 PP goals. That's why I still want him in there.

Just my 2 cents- but its all a moot point anyway at this point- based on Poile and Hyne's comments I don't think there is any chance whatsoever he is going to be there (for game 1, at least)

None of us are singling out Tolvanen, we are just pointing out the fact that since his injury there is no real basis for this hero worship.

Nothing Hynes nor Poile has said is untrue. Hynes appears to be making decisions based on what is happening now, not what happened 2 months ago. His play 2 months ago is what kept him in the lineup and gave him the opportunity to work through whatever issues he is having.

We sit here today getting back to healthy so now the coaches are needing to make some tough decisions. The only reason the Coach and GM has singled out Tolvanen is because that is who the media is asking questions about.

Someone has to sit. Hynes says if Tolvanen wants to play he needs to work on X just like he said if Arvy wants to play he needs to prove he is at a certain level too. I mean heck he basically stated that if Duchene wants to keep his spot he has to keep producing too.

Frankly there is only a small group of players who doesn't need to keep earning their spot those players are Josi, Ekholm, Forsberg, and then probably Ellis. Joey may be in that group too simply because we don't really have anyone that can replace what he can do across every facet of the game but even he has been knocked down lines when he wasn't getting it done.

 

[101st_fan]

None of us are singling out Tolvanen, we are just pointing out the fact that since his injury there is no real basis for this hero worship.

Nothing Hynes nor Poile has said is untrue. Hynes appears to be making decisions based on what is happening now, not what happened 2 months ago. His play 2 months ago is what kept him in the lineup and gave him the opportunity to work through whatever issues he is having.

We sit here today getting back to healthy so now the coaches are needing to make some tough decisions. The only reason the Coach and GM has singled out Tolvanen is because that is who the media is asking questions about.

Someone has to sit. Hynes says if Tolvanen wants to play he needs to work on X just like he said if Arvy wants to play he needs to prove he is at a certain level too. I mean heck he basically stated that if Duchene wants to keep his spot he has to keep producing too.

Frankly there is only a small group of players who doesn't need to keep earning their spot those players are Josi, Ekholm, Forsberg, and then probably Ellis. Joey may be in that group too simply because we don't really have anyone that can replace what he can do across every facet of the game but even he has been knocked down lines when he wasn't getting it done.

Based on recent play I'd add Kunin, Granlund, and Jarnkrok to the safe from scratch list ... all with a minimum of 5 points since Tolvanen's return ... 8g ,10a combined.

 

[You]

The power play needs both Forsberg and Tolvanen to succeed. Most of Tolvanen's production has been from the power play, so I don't feel like it's a coincidence that his struggles line up with Forsberg's injury. If we would adjust the PP or had a suitable replacement, then OK. But we won't/don't. Hopefully we at least break even on our own power plays.

 

[weeze]

Tolvanen hasn't been this player you speak of in a month or two though. Everyone wants to see him play but the numbers lately don't really support the idea that he deserves that spot if the coach decides to go a different direction.

Who else has scored any PP goals since ET has slowed down? Now that teams know he can score goals they have changed their D and are keying on him more which means someone else NEEDS to step up and score some GOALS! I agree that if not for many of our younger players from the AHL/Taxi Squad we would be sitting home and not even be talking about a game tonight. And the saying goes "dance with the one that brought you" should apply. Some of our vets played like crap and should have been benched long before, these young players came in lit a spark and turned this season around and now because he is in a little slump we want to sit him. We are a team that relies on getting goals from every line and as we do not have a bonafide superstar goal scorer.

 

[101st_fan]

Joey has two PP goals since Tolvanen returned from injury 9 games ago. Granlund has one in that span. At even strength Kunin has 5 goals since April 21st ... Haula with 4 ... Jeannot with 3.

 

[drwpreds]

None of us are singling out Tolvanen, we are just pointing out the fact that since his injury there is no real basis for this hero worship.

Nothing Hynes nor Poile has said is untrue. .

Don't disagree with anything in your post and yes, what Hynes and Poile have said were true- no argument there.

But he is the ONLY player that anyone is flat out coming out and saying "he just hasn't been good since coming back" Poile and his "All due respect..." comment. If you start with "all due respect"- then something pretty negative is coming next.

To me, that IS calling him out.

And not to beat a dead horse, but my point continues to be- WHY make those very public comments? They serve no purpose at all.

But, time to move on- he is not in the lineup so let's get ready for game 1....